The council noticed it being made, which was very loud. Doesn't seem like it's been as extreme since then. At very least in Vegas it looked like the FCF entry wasn't detected and RVD was.
I expect they are looking, but they can't possibly anticipate bullshit charm games that we haven't used yet. If I was a red court security sorcerer my research focus would be on detecting Molly's water movement as far in advance as possible. It's an ability she's used for stealth insertions twice now that they've seen, in one case obviously appearing to bypass her active attempts at stealth.
Finding FCF portals would be valuable, but remember that she hasn't really opened them outside her places of power*. They aren't used to thinking of people as Way endpoints and we typically only use that ability when we're being loud anyway.
* The arctic was different, but they didn't know where they needed to be looking in advance to really see that.
Spirits noticed the gate being opened, not the Hell being instantiated.
So I think its safe to suspect that at least some of them can still do this, though I dont think most of them have Demonreach's range.
Also, Molly has been opening gates in Chicago, Vegas and most recently Boston.
Vegas conspicuously had a significant Red Court presence.
The conservative bet is that they noticed something.
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Also, powerful entities dont have to use Ways.
Or they can outright make their own. We've seen both Mab and Titania teleport, Mab create a new Way gate from scratch, and we've seen Mavra do what was an apparent teleport.
I would not assume the Red Court are unfamiliar with the concept of unconventional means of supernatural transport.
Especially since, according to Brother Dev, they have been courting Thrashing Dragon elders.
1) Fair on RVD, but can the clones' teleports carry us that way? It Molly counts as a separate person to those sorts of effects then RVD shouldn't make a difference, and if she doesn't for soul hierarchy reasons there's some serious cheese potential.
2) Depends on what you started with. It's entirely possible it's coincidence, but the red court seeing RVD and then investing in water spirit wrangling as a counter could explain them being able to handle this. If they already have the pieces they just need to shuffle them around.
Either way I wouldn't count the council out, they kicked ass in the war despite the traitors. They took serious losses too, but I wouldn't want to be the guy assigned to hunt Morgan down when he's on the offensive.
I'm also not sure what point you're trying to make by bringing this up. Preparing to hunt wizards isn't the same as preparing to hunt us is that is what they were doing, and doesn't solve some of their basic problems with countering a blitz approach.
More troops and awareness help, but if they can't get government support out here I doubt they've pulled any meaningful AA this direction. Especially against platforms centuries ahead of the tech available. I wouldn't want to take WW2 level air defenses against a modern predator drone and that gap is smaller than this one.
3) Access to information is something we're good at. We should probably ask more questions anyway using pictures of Morgan from our hell and maps of the area. What the wizards's current plans are, what the red court's local plans are, who they have around, what counters they have for us, that sort of thing.
We have two reds in our hell as forever guests from our last assassination, they or some pictures of them should work for that. We need to balance the essence spend, we shouldn't go in blind if we can help it.
I see your point about precision, but this is a war. To an extent you can't just wait for the perfect opportunity, you've got to hurt your enemy's interests where you find them. Especially if we want to end this in some way other than canon's massive genocide ritual, which I think most of us would prefer. Breaking the political organization of the court in a way that leaves the species alive to give the post WW2 Germany/Japan reform treatment is going to require some more conventional engagement.
I'm not deterred by the idea of this sparking more conflict because I want to be at war with them.
1)I dont know if Molly can be carried in a bottle during RVD.
However, she can be carried in a bottle once she is in South America, which was what I had in mind as a backup.
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2) Im not counting the Council out, but the Reds have home ground advantage here, and Morgan's team dont have surprise.
A prepared ambush against the second in command of the Wardens and his handpicked squad of old school hardcases is going to be led by a Duke of the Court at a minimum, if not a Lord of Outer Night.
Expect the deployment of hundreds of Reds and half-Reds, of Ick demons and possibly Outsiders like we saw used against Ebenezar at the quest's beginning. Even potentially mercenary Thrashing Dragons from Asia are on the table; we've been told that the Reds were courting them.
And the lack of government troops is not the drawback it might seem. It means no official questions to be buried.
It doesnt prevent the use of mercenaries and mortal house troops like we saw at Chitchen Itza and in Central Africa.
Or criminals like already operate in the area IRL. It doesnt even prevent a Red Court noble with Presence 5: Majesty walking into a village and dragooning a bunch of mortals as meatshields.
This might as well be their backyard and they had enough preptime and resources to even spare troops to intercept messengers.
Manpower and resources wont be a problem for them, and I think you both overestimate our ability to operate airpower on the border of a threshold nuclear state like Brazil, and underestimate the Red Court's ability to do shit about it.
We arent clobbering a complacent Arianna; we're going into an active warzone.
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3) Our clones have
Attunement and
Secret of Gaia for scouting the area of operations, locating concentrations of supernaturals and talking to the local spirits. And
Pulse of the Prey will help us find the wizards; we've met Morgan, so we can literally just run him down even if he is constantly moving.
We arent operating in a vacuum here.
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This is a war, but this is not our war. Not yet.
The targets and critical enemy infrastructure are embedded in the middle of major human population centers and critical human infrastructure for a significant chunk of the global human population, and oopsies easily involve hundreds or thousands of people in the first order blast radius. Its not something you want to wing.
The White Council hasnt been exercising restraint because they lack firepower, after all.
Furthermore, on our side?
We have a bunch of targets at risk of retaliation, none of whom are currently hardened against even the equivalent of a mortal hit team with AKs. Something that Broken Seeker pointedly made a point of.
Not to mention that there's the additional issue of uncontrolled escalation playing into the hands of the Nemesis conspiracy, whose goal is specifically chaos and the uncontrolled breakdown of order.
And there's the final OOC point that I dont want this quest to become the Red Court Quest.
There's other parts of the setting I would like to explore than get bogged down in Latin America dealing with this war and its aftermath. Thats not really plausible if we kick off a major unplanned conflagration just because.
Spirits interpreted what they were feeling as the gate opening. Most of them would have no frame of reference for a Creation being manifested. Note how nothing like this ever happened afterwards.
When spirits in the vicinity of Chicago, a major travel nexus describe a gate into the deep NeverNever, I think its safe to assume they think they know what they are talking about.
Furthermore, its not like Molly is the only person capable of opening a Hellgate; akuma can do it with Hellweaving.
And we know the Denarians can do something similar, because it was a plot point in Small Favor.
So I think you underestimate how recognizable these things are. Even if I dont know what range they can be detected at.
Besides, Brother Dev has told us that the White Council has been sniffing around.
And its safe to assume whatever they figured out, Peabody has.