You're assuming 20/300 Solars didn't attend the Calibration Feast each year...
No. I'm assuming it happened in the several millennia before the Calibration Feast was even a twinkle in Salina's eye.

Look, 3CD are extremely dangerous and puissant beings. They are not, however, more dangerous than millennia-old Solar Elders. They are substantially more likely to go on extremely destructive rampages, particularly when summoned without due caution. It's not the best Solar Sorcerers that were the greatest concern, it was the worst. Well, that and task-binding large numbers of 3CD. That can quickly get to be really dangerous.
 
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The Calibration feast was instituted by Salina, and the description says that it was in the last few centuries circa the date Dreams of the First Age is set in. So, that's about 3204 years where there was no Calibration feast. Are you assuming it retroactively applied? Salina was crazy, but I don't think even she could get enough support to do a Shimanic Calibration to pull that off.
I am just going to point out you are citing DotFA. Which is to say, logic may not be applicable.

But that aside, given the major focus of the Second Deliberative was 'holy shit guys, we almost destroyed the world, lets not do that again', so locking down on something that can very easily turn into an escalatory arms race strikes me as completely in keeping with that era. And even if not formally written down, 'failure to attend means we will be forced to assume you are about to do something foolish, and will act accordingly' tends to be very good incentive!

But yes, in the Thousand Struggles Era there probably were attempts to summon the same demon at some point. I suspect most of these ended in massive fucking battles, because that's how the era rolled. Also likely expeditions into Malfeas to find new Unspeakables to utilize in the wars that the other side didn't know about. Before that, I suspect there was minimal 3CD summoning, because it is inherently escalatory (and dangerous), and likely provoked a mountain of high level negotiation and maneuvering when it was done. And before that, everyone was a Primordial War vet. They might have had a few issues with using 3CDs in general, in addition to everything else here.

Basically, outside of the Thousand Struggles Era, I highly doubt there were more then a handful 3CDs that got summoned a year on average.
 
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I am just going to point out you are citing DotFA. Which is to say, logic may not be applicable.

But that aside, given the major focus of the Second Deliberative was 'holy shit guys, we almost destroyed the world, lets not do that again', so locking down on something that can very easily turn into an escalatory arms race strikes me as completely in keeping with that era. And even if not formally written down, 'failure to attend means we will be forced to assume you are about to do something foolish, and will act accordingly' tends to be very good incentive!

But yes, in the Thousand Struggles Era there probably were attempts to summon the same demon at some point. I suspect most of these ended in massive fucking battles, because that's how the era rolled. Also likely expeditions into Malfeas to find new Unspeakables to utilize in the wars that the other side didn't know about. Before that, I suspect there was minimal 3CD summoning, because it is inherently escalatory (and dangerous), and likely provoked a mountain of high level negotiation and maneuvering when it was done. And before that, everyone was a Primordial War vet. They might have had a few issues with using 3CDs in general, in addition to everything else here.

Basically, outside of the Thousand Struggles Era, I highly doubt there were more then a handful 3CDs that got summoned a year on average.
Do you understand what Anasurimbor is getting at? Because it doesn't seem like it.
 
No. I'm assuming it happened in the several millennia before the Calibration Feast was even a twinkle in Salina's eye.

Look, 3CD are extremely dangerous and puissant beings. They are not, however, more dangerous than millennia-old Solar Elders. They are substantially more likely to go on extremely destructive rampages, particularly when summoned without due caution. It's not the best Solar Sorcerers that were the greatest concern, it was the worst. Well, that and task-binding large numbers of 3CD. That can quickly get to be really dangerous.
Okay, so now ignoring the Calibration Feast, you're assuming that every year there were 20 Adamant Circle sorcerers who wanted to summon a 3CD. Summoning 3CDs is a big fucking deal, big enough that there was (eventually) a yearly banquet for the sole purpose of making sure people didn't fucking do it.
So, for your assumptions to be accurate, you need 20 Adamant Circle sorcerers summoning 3CDs, which means you need 20 Adamant Circle sorcerers (who are pretty fucking rare, because it require major sacrifices that significantly change your personality). You also need all 20 of those sorcerers to have a reason to summon a 3CD (why bother, when you can summon a half-dozen 2CDs with far more stealth? 3CDs are basically nukes, and there are several reasons nukes don't see actual use in modern warfare.), and you need those reasons to be such that more than one wants to summon the same 3CD.
Anyone who has the potential to summon a 3CD is going to be under very close watch each Calibration, because that's basically watching to make sure they don't try to nuke someone else.

See, there's something you forgot about the birthday problem: it's a theoretical exercise where all days are equally likely, but in reality you're most likely to be born on September 16th or 9th. Similarly, 3CDs aren't summoned at random. They're summoned for a purpose, and they have personalities. The summoner's preferences, personality, and knowledge play far more of a role than statistics.
 
Do you understand what Anasurimbor is getting at? Because it doesn't seem like it.
'People will summon Third Circle Demons to prevent other polities from getting at them' I believe is the ghist of it.

The problem is that's very much an esclatory mindset. Provided both sides are at all interested in deescalation, it doesn't hold. So his sweeping generalization doesn't hold. There is a reason I broke my analysis down by time: there are era's when he would be mostly right (though I doubt it ever really hit 20 summons a year, save as a extreme statistical outlier) and others where he would not.

The closest thing we have 3CDs IRL is nukes, and we spend a lot of time talking between nations about them. You can probably apply the same general characteristics of those debates to FA 3CD summoning, with the added issue of 'greater risk of catastrophic failure' for demon summoning then nukes, and the greater incentives in the form of 3CD utility.

In short, his conclusions ignores peaceful inter-polity politics as a consideration. Which can happen: see the Cold War, but also see the disarmament of the late Cold War. There is no nuance to it.

It also relies on the logical conceit you know what demon your rival is summoning, which odds are you will not without an excellent spy ring.

Really, as far as 'not being able to summon the 3CD you want' goes as an issue task binding is more likely to be culprit then resource denial. Of course, assuming you've researched the topic at all you'll know who is task bound and who isn't: that is information quite a few parties are very interested in, so someone will be keeping an eye on it.

Now it happening by accident is something that almost certainly did happen, but it was probably a once a century event, if that, not a once a decade (azoicennead laid out the holes in the basic math he was using above pretty well: frequency is way lower then he assumed). Not sure what I would do for that: probably a roll off to be the one to summon the demon (burn motes before the demon gets there, I'm sure you can spare them) or an outright failure. The books don't exactly say what happens in that edge case.
 
I . And before that, everyone was a Primordial War vet. They might have had a few issues with using 3CDs in general, in addition to everything else here.
Save for the ones that might have summoned 2CD's and 3CD's to gloat anyway.

"HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, ONCE YOU WERE GREATEST AMONGST YOUR KIND.... NOW YOU WILL SERVE ME FRUITY DRINKS WITH LITTLE UMBRELLAS IN THEM"
 
Interesting stuff that I am going to shamelessly steal.

Given the focus on the rivers of death, Abyssal Sail is probably a lot more useful, right?

Also, is distance the same between Creation and the Underworld? By which, say there are two Shadowlands fifty miles apart in Creation, would they be roughly fifty miles apart in the Underworld too or would you be able to use the Rivers like a Sidereal can use the Yu-Shan gates?

Or would something like that be more what you invest in Abyssal Sail and/or Necromancy for?

Close to Creation, the distances are what people associate as the distances based on how much they think of the place. So if people think of a place as being closer than it really is, it'll be nearer, while if they think of it rarely, it'll be further.

Deeper down, things are more surreal - not least because when you get down to Shogunate places, Creation had mass transit systems and trains and stuff, so places were closer together in terms of time. And as the domains move up and down and wage war on each other and conquer each other, distance warps, because it's more based on how close the Dead think the domains are than the mortals.

So, yes, a good ferryman can follow a path between two shallow domains which is a lot shorter than the distance between the Creation places, but that means they'll probably have to head down deeper towards the Shogunate and fight the current on the way up - and it's less safe the deeper you get. Which is why you need a good ferryman. The very best ferrymen can skirt the edges of the Labyrinth and take advantage of the way time and space breaks down down there to cross distances very very quickly - albeit at the cost of having to fight off Greater Dead and undergoing a gothy version of that bit from the old Charlie and the Chocolate Factory film and the teeeeeeny risk of crewmembers succumbing to Whispers and cutting all the sails. And yes, you can use Cysts for "gravitational slingshots" if you know what you're doing.

Try not to get caught in a waterfall into the Labyrinth.

Oh neat, so they come prepackaged with the ability to go "Behold my True Form and Despair!" without having to get B.O.S.S.

Yep. Certainly a handy trait, though it wasn't the design intention for it.

It's simply that hun ghosts get less and less human as they raise in Enlightenment, because they're becoming less "human ghost" and more "Underworld creature". Because the human hun is a pale, crippled reflection of the person, unlike the po (which is the source of all the vitality and the seat of power). Therefore to raise their Enlightenment, ghosts need to find another source of power to sup on. Cult is one source, and that lets them remain basically human, but that has its limits - and very few ghosts would ever get to benefit from high Cult, even in an ancestor-worshipping society. Which means that the Deathlords, the ones who have ventured down to the tombs of the Neverborn and supped on their power, are very inhuman indeed.

(If their true form isn't very inhuman, that means their mind must have been horribly warped - but the fact that their true form is inhuman doesn't mean that their mind isn't very warped.)
 
Two of those statements have been false the entire time, and the last is no longer true as of the setting's modern time. The summoning of a 3CD - controlled or otherwise - is one of those occasions where you can expect most of the opposing factions to stop throwing their big hitters at each other so they can pile on the demon because fuck that shit. Nobody can afford to let a 3CD run around Creation.

And the point is missed once again.
 
Given that Po souls are the seat of power, couldn't it be possible for a Hun ghost to bind himself to a Po soul, and become a horrible abomination?

Or it is impossible in your underworld?
 
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This does rather require binding a very angry, very powerful hungry ghost.
So it's dangerous, risky and if it back fires t will probably reap untold destruction on the immediate area as a powerful spirit vents its spleen on those who would presume to bind it or be within spiting distance of the person in question.

So about par for the series then?
 
Why bother waiting until your dead!

Bind a legion of souls to yourself today!
And why restrict yourself to just Po souls some Hun souls as servants would be really useful, and with some patience mixed with a lot of luck you could even start binding demons gods and elementals to yourself.
 
Given that Po souls are the seat of power, couldn't it be possible for a Hun ghost to bind himself to a Po soul, and become a horrible abomination?

Or it is impossible in your underworld?

Well, on the subject of binding, it's not trivial for a hun to bind a po, because huns are weaker than pos. And pos are good at eating each other for power, because they're hungry. Huns can also eat pos for power, but huns are weak and so find it harder.

I'm pretty sure "hunt down a po and tear apart a hungry ghost and feast on its sweet sweet corpus, bloating on the power within it" will have no side effects at all.
 
Well, on the subject of binding, it's not trivial for a hun to bind a po, because huns are weaker than pos. And pos are good at eating each other for power, because they're hungry. Huns can also eat pos for power, but huns are weak and so find it harder.

I'm pretty sure "hunt down a po and tear apart a hungry ghost and feast on its sweet sweet corpus, bloating on the power within it" will have no side effects at all.
I was mostly thinking about the Hun and Po becoming a mockery of a normal living human soul, than "Om Nom Nom goes the soul". Still, if merely eating a Po is bad, becoming the Mockery is probably way worse.
 
I was mostly thinking about the Hun and Po becoming a mockery of a normal living human soul, than "Om Nom Nom goes the soul". Still, if merely eating a Po is bad, becoming the Mockery is probably way worse.

Mmm.

I'd say that a Hun soul outright cannot do this on its own. The closest you get is those guys in Autocthonia who bind their Hun and Po souls into their own body in an elaborate ritual suicide, and that's partially because the split between Hun and Po never happens in Autocthonia.

Otherwise, only Lethe can unite a Hun and Po soul.
 
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