Whoof. What a night. I'm honestly surprised 99 flipped town, especially after... whatever the heck that was at EoD. Because, wow, that was. Something. And hail and Shadell... I've not covered myself in glory thus far, it seems.
It's 3am and I can't sleep so I'm polishing up the responsepost I put together during game-night. I think I got all the hail-related stuff out but it's 3:45 am now so I may have missed something.
As for him being a power piece... I didn't say that? I was just saying that scum would want one of those roles to do the attack and Rosen wasn't one of those roles.
I didn't think you intended to, no. Reading strictly as written, "
It is very lightly Town indicative in that if the scum picked the killer randomly there's a 1/4 chance they would have used 99L for the kill. Realistically, slightly higher than that because they would prefer to use a bishop or knight, instead of a Pawn such as Rosen." implies that 99 is - was - a bishop or knight, but I get that your meaning was that since -Rosen was a pawn it's somewhat more likely scum picked one of the other three to try and kill with.
Apologies for the poor phrasing of my initial response.
Fair, it's just that Usili is a bit of an unusual N1 attack target, and I'm kinda thinking through why they in particular might have been targeted.
I suppose there's more room for that kind of thing somewhere like SV where it's a largely closed system and most of the players are fairly well-known quantities. Another difference to adjust to.
No, I checked, and they haven't particularly addressed that, which is why I brought it back up.
My mistake.
Hmm. I don't like the 99lies vote, for reasons I've argued against before.
I don't love "I have reasons but go back and find them yourself", especially closing in on EoD. Paraphrasing is no great effort.
You're welcome to sus me but you're wrong.
I also don't love this, on a gut/vibe level, but alone I don't think I'd weigh it much. In combination with other posting from QT... hm.
Hmm.
The fact that I had the most reasoning on that wagon should be a bad sign imo, since I wasn't really convinced about it at all...
SELF: GO BACK AND LOOK AT PRE-FATEFULPOST HUGHWAGON
Oh boy.
These votes are very fast Iwish we had more time :C
30-33 is just... made of chaos.
Nictis jumping to me is incredibly sus. I'm not on the board here and zero reasoning. I
I'm starting to feel like Nictis' performative unability to read posts was delaying, and I'm increasingly sold on QT, for ignoring reads for most of the day before jumping on Meso.
RIP. Responding to these because they're still relevant:
My gut agrees with you on QT and I also didn't love that timing - I was a little surprised to see any significant meso wagon actually crystallise around that - but as someone who held back from voting you only due to my desire to be thorough about doing due diligence checking my gutreads I don't see much wrong with Nictis, a significantly more experienced and confident player in this format than I am, switching to you as a backup option.
Yo meso, you intend to kill hail?
I mostly expected to see QT take it, myself, though I did have outside odds on hail as a secondary.
Alright. So if scum didn't take a queen, probably didn't take a rook, and has at least 1 nonscum knight and bishop, I think we're looking at:
1. White Knight / White Queenside Bishop / Pawn / Pawn (-Rosen).
2. White Knight / Pawn / Pawn / Pawn (-Rosen)
3. White Bishop / Pawn / Pawn / Pawn (-Rosen)
And for the sake of completeness,
4. White Rook (Usili) / ??? / ??? / Pawn (-Rosen) with either 99lies or Mesonoxian scum
99 is dead
meso scum is
technically possible if they tried to hit Scia or the other knight (in non-scum Knight2 world) and they redirected into -Rosen, but that's one of those "are you precognitive" scenarios I was talking about.
It is, as I have previously stated, arse-oclock in the morning and I'm up only because sleep is eluding me entirely, so I'm not going to engage in mech analysis right now.
Overall, coming into D3, my list of sus is now topped by my own gut because both hail and Shadell flipped town -.-. More seriously I'm looking at QT and Zaea as most sus players, and am starting to feel more strongly about wanting to see more contentposting from the quieter members of the thread.
I have previously stated that the Nictis/hail interaction felt scummy to me, and I stand by that, but at the same time during night phase I was feeling moderately comfortable pegging Nictis as probable town and hail as probable scum. I think I'm going to need to double back and reexamine their argument and, importantly, its context.
(Can someone explain the concept of a stale wagon to me please? Not 100% on how accurately I've got it. Also 'cfd'.)