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Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

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Simon_Jester said:
I'm not especially thrilled to be leaving an infrastructure die de-activated. It may not be possible to dig up the resources, of course...
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I didn't notice that. Thought I was already using all 5 dice, but there's budget to activate the last die.
Simon_Jester said:
Note that one potential drawback of this plan is a ~4.5% risk of falling into Capital Goods deficit if Yellow Zone Light Industrial Sectors completes and Bulk Plastics does not. My plan spends more on Chemical Precursors for precisely this reason, to make sure that we're not in danger of a Capital Goods shortfall when we finish the Yellow Zone factories next quarter.
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Fair enough, but the chance of both YZ Industrial completing and Bulk Plastics failing is only an about 3% chance. At worst we'd only have one quarter with just one Capital Goods short; easy enough to fix then. And we still have a 97% chance to not hit that scenario.

If the thread thinks that's too risky, we could just take a die off YZ Light Industrial this turn so it'll have to finish next turn. I can put that free die elsewhere for more consumer goods, maybe on Fashion development houses. But I'd much rather get one of our plan goals and its +8 consumer goods completed this turn.
Simon_Jester said:
I assume you're not planning on working on Chicago?
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I left it blank because I'm not sure if any new projects are going to show up now that we completed BZ fences. It's still most likely going to be at least some dice on Chicago though.
Simon_Jester said:
I acknowledge that your plan has a very good chance of filling us up on Energy, but the downside is, um. That "total possible" reflects a lot of stuff that is far from certain to succeed. A more realistic expectation value for your Consumer Goods output is...

(.74*4)+(.55*4)+(.74*8)+(.94*2)+(.10*4)+(.68*4)

...Sixteen consumer goods. Still impressive, not exactly chopped liver, but not quite the "Wow!" effect of +26. Because odds are at least some of those projects won't complete, and indeed Fashion Development is so unlikely to complete for you that you really shouldn't count it at all.
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I'm not going all-in on Consumer Goods. This isn't a meme plan; I'm trying to shift our focus for a quarter, not put everything on hold. Yes, it's not very likely to reach over +20 Consumer Goods, but the point is to frontload most of our growth here in this quarter so that the effects on the election are maximized. Next turn we'd still want to do some more Consumer Goods just to follow through, and the unfinished projects from this turn are a good candidate for that.

Also. Unlike this last turn, nearly every project in this plan (so far) has a coinflip or greater chance to complete. Only Perennial Aquaponics Bays and Fashion development houses are unlikely to finish this turn, but they'll be easy enough to complete on the next.
 
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For example, under my plan, we could do a Q4 sprint on Virtual Reality Arcades (++++ Consumer Goods), because we'd probably the prerequisites (4 Energy and 1 Capital Goods) already in hand.

If we wanted to meme plan, we could do that and chuck all five free dice at light industry and have a fighting chance of completing both Blue and Yellow light industrial sectors within Q4.

...

Or we could (in theory) start Automated Civilian Shipyards and exchange -- Capital Goods for ++++ Logistics if we had the Heavy Industry to spare, and give ourselves a strong logistical margin of error- though that wouldn't cash out as Consumer Goods before the election unless we pulled a real pro gamer move and combined it with Civilian Air Travel that same turn.

There's also Agriculture Mechanization, -- Capital Goods, which doesn't directly produce Consumer Goods but (again) could be parlayed into them later, though as with Automated Civilian Shipyards there's no real way to get that and an immediate Consoom payout.

All of these are options that are simply off the table for now until we get more than the minimum two units of Capital Goods required for Yellow Zone Light Industry. It's not a great situation to be in.
 
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Derpmind said:
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Hm, I accidentally paved over my reply to you with an edit. Reconstructing.

If the thread thinks that's too risky, we could just take a die off YZ Light Industrial this turn so it'll have to finish next turn. I can put that free die elsewhere for more consumer goods, maybe on Fashion development houses. But I'd much rather get one of our plan goals and its +8 consumer goods completed this turn.
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Personally I'm willing to keep chugging along there for one turn more, if in exchange it means getting the chemical sector stood up properly and having more Capital Goods for next turn so that we aren't choked for lack of even one or two points of the stuff the way we are now.

Especially since we've got reasons to think Chemical Precursors (which your plan cuts) may synergize with Bulk Plastics, or even with the shell plants and fertilizer plant options.

I left it blank because I'm not sure if any new projects are going to show up now that we completed BZ fences. It's still most likely going to be at least some dice on Chicago though.
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Fair enough; I penciled in two Chicago dice because I figured I'd be willing to go in that much, but that doesn't mean you have to.

I'm not going all-in on Consumer Goods. This isn't a meme plan; I'm trying to shift our focus for a quarter, not put everything on hold. Yes, it's not very likely to reach over +20 Consumer Goods, but the point is to frontload most of our growth here in this quarter so that the effects on the election are maximized.
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Okay, but the point is that you should be talking about expectation values, not "potentially up to" numbers that only materialize if a 10% probability of something completing actually happens and if multiple coin tosses all come up 'heads' at once.

It's perfectly fair to say that the expected output of your plan is +16 Consumer Goods immediately and that barring some bizarrely unlikely mishap it positions us for another sizeable surge of Consumer Goods next turn.

I'm a lot happier saying that than saying +26... but it also narrows the gap between your plan and mine, because my plan also has a fair chance of producing a solid slug of Consumer Goods this turn and positioning us to get more in Q4 (including +8 from Yellow Zone Light Industry, which we should be well positioned to complete easily after two more dice this turn).
 
Simon_Jester said:
All of these are options that are simply off the table for now until we get more than the minimum two units of Capital Goods required for Yellow Zone Light Industry. It's not a great situation to be in.
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Our priority leading up to the election is consumer goods production. All the other cool things we could use capital goods on just aren't as important for the next two quarters.
Simon_Jester said:
Especially since we've got reasons to think Chemical Precursors (which your plan cuts) may synergize with Bulk Plastics, or even with the shell plants and fertilizer plant options.
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Not to be too pedantic, but I'm not cutting Chemical Precursors. I'm continuing Bulk Plastics from last turn. (Chemical Precursors had a die used on it many turns ago, but we were able to fix the capital goods shortage using other projects so it's been sitting around since.)
Simon_Jester said:
I'm a lot happier saying that than saying +26... but it also narrows the gap between your plan and mine, because my plan also has a fair chance of producing a solid slug of Consumer Goods this turn and positioning us to get more in Q4 (including +8 from Yellow Zone Light Industry, which we should be well positioned to complete easily after two more dice this turn).
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A major point of my plan is to try and get YZ Light Industry done this next turn, rather than at the end of Q4. It's an important signal to the YZ that we're committed to them. I'm not switching that out.
 
Derpmind said:
Our priority leading up to the election is consumer goods production. All the other cool things we could use capital goods on just aren't as important for the next two quarters.
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Yes, but there are cool things we could use the capital goods on next quarter to cash out consumer goods directly, in addition to relatively easily completing Yellow Zone Light Industry and clawing back eight Consumer Goods points that your plan front-loads in Q3. That project isn't getting ignored in my plan, it's just moving slower.

Not to be too pedantic, but I'm not cutting Chemical Precursors. I'm continuing Bulk Plastics from last turn. (Chemical Precursors had a die used on it many turns ago, but we were able to fix the capital goods shortage using other projects so it's been sitting around since.)
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Relative to my plan you're cutting Chemical Precursors, because my plan contains it and yours does not.

A major point of my plan is to try and get YZ Light Industry done this next turn, rather than at the end of Q4. It's an important signal to the YZ that we're committed to them. I'm not switching that out.
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Yes, I understand that.

I'm prepared to consider "we continue to make progress on the project this quarter and finish next quarter" as an acceptable standard of signalling to the Yellow Zones that we're committed. The construction of fortress towns to defend them and the extension of power and communications to them, combined with this, is a considerable signal of good faith in my honest opinion.

You think that "we'll finish Yellow Zone Light Industry next turn" is not a good enough sign of our good faith and commitment, so you consider it imperative to finish it this turn, even if it means (for instance) not completing Chemical Precursors this turn.

That is, indeed, one of the main differences between our plans.
 
Once the mutation roll happens, what happens to All the son of emitters? Does that get rolled back into resources?
 
Image said:
Once the mutation roll happens, what happens to All the son of emitters? Does that get rolled back into resources?
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Mutation will be happening over time with a increasing % of tiberium becoming immune to sonics so we keep using the sonics till all tiberium is resistant against it and by that time most emitters are infected by tiberium or in a bad enough state that recovering and recycling is no longer worth it.
 
Image said:
Once the mutation roll happens, what happens to All the son of emitters? Does that get rolled back into resources?
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Mechanically, once mutation starts, there will be 2 dice (d4s unless things change) rolled every few turns. One will determine how many points of mitigation we lose, one determines how many turns until it's rolled again. Sonics aren't going to be obsolete overnight.
 
Image said:
Once the mutation roll happens, what happens to All the son of emitters? Does that get rolled back into resources?
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As said above, they'll start to lose effectiveness but we are getting our hands on inhibitors out of the Scrin tech. One of which from what I remember will allow us to delay or prevent future mutation. These inhibitors will be very energy intensive from what has been said either here or in the Discord by @Ithillid.
 
Lightwhispers said:
Mechanically, once mutation starts, there will be 2 dice (d4s unless things change) rolled every few turns. One will determine how many points of mitigation we lose, one determines how many turns until it's rolled again. Sonics aren't going to be obsolete overnight.
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We can also continue to get more abatement from completing projects even as we lose abatement to mutation.

Oshha — Yesterday at 00:02
If Tiberium mutation begins to cost us abatement, can we still get more abatement from completing stuff?

Ithillid — Yesterday at 00:03
Yes. Doing more projects to fight Tib helps mitigate the loss of mitigation.
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About the drop in effectiveness with sonics does that not also mean that we will need to find another way of purifying water from tiberium contamination lest we encounter mass tiberium poisonings on the regular
 
Shard of Victory said:
Will there be limit on maximal mitigation lost? Most of our RZ mitigation doesn't involve sonics, it's simple harvesting.
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While the QM hasn't outright said we will begin to lose mining capabilities, their response to being asked if tiberium mutation affects our mining of it was "it is just abatement, at least at first". To me, that implies that eventually our ability to mine tiberium will eventually be lost as well.
Hazard — Yesterday at 00:12
Does abatement alone stops being effective, or does mutation also impact mining effectiveness?

Ithillid — Yesterday at 00:13
it is just abatement, at least at first.
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It's worth remembering that in all those results we get about Glacier Mining? Sonics play a big part in sheering off bits of glacier into harvestable chunks.

So yeah, our biggest source of income right now is going to eventually start giving us less and less.
 
Chimeraguard said:
It's worth remembering that in all those results we get about Glacier Mining? Sonics play a big part in sheering off bits of glacier into harvestable chunks.

So yeah, our biggest source of income right now is going to eventually start giving us less and less.
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There doesn't seem to be anything in theory stopping us from replacing sonic cannons with regular cannons and just blowing chunks of the glacier face up with a shitload of dynamite. It probably wouldn't work as well, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't work.

Shard of Victory said:
It is time to focus all our efforts on space. We need to do Colombia and Shala ASAP.
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Eh. Tiberium had mutated and sonic fencing and such were no longer effective circa 2062 in Tiberian Twilight, and yet somehow both Nod and GDI were, so far as I can determine, still able to profitably mine tiberium. I think there's every reason to expect tiberium-based industry to remain viable and important through the next Four Year Plan as well as the end of this one, not least because we need to slow the spread of tiberium enough to permit an orderly evacuation of the planet into space, along with adequate time to source resources IN space.

With that said, I'm quite certain that once we get the Philadelphia stood up (and we should probably be hitting Phase 2 this turn under my draft plan or @Derpmind 's, I think), Columbia and Shala are likely to be next. I wouldn't be surprised if we have one station at least minimally functional and the other under construction, or maybe even both functional at the minimal level indicated by Phase 2, at the end of this coming year.
 
Simon_Jester said:
There doesn't seem to be anything in theory stopping us from replacing sonic cannons with regular cannons and just blowing the glacier face the fuck up with a shitload of dynamite. It probably wouldn't work as well, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't work.
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The issue with that is that the higher categories of Tiberium have an unfortunate tendency to... react energetically when subjected to conventional weapons like explosives. That's why ZOCOM is very specific about their desire for a sonic artillery unit, which won't cause a chain reaction if it hits a Blue Tiberium Field.
 
Chimeraguard said:
The issue with that is that the higher categories of Tiberium have an unfortunate tendency to... react energetically when subjected to conventional weapons like explosives. That's why ZOCOM is very specific about their desire for a sonic artillery unit, which won't cause a chain reaction if it hits a Blue Tiberium Field.
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Can we use that for abetament? Just rain shells into deep Red Zones?
 
I think that creates the issue of instead of having Tiberium in easy to track, harvest, and suppress crystals, it is now dispersed into the air, where it's much trickier to manage.
 
Simon_Jester said:
I think there's every reason to expect tiberium-based industry to remain viable and important through the next Four Year Plan as well as the end of this one, not least because we need to slow the spread of tiberium enough to permit an orderly evacuation of the planet into space, along with adequate time to source resources IN space.
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We don't really need to source said resources in space for the most part. It has been said by the QM that orbitally mining Tiberium fields would actually be feasible if not rather easy. Provided we have the refineries and such to deal with it.
 
We do need more investment in the orbital category since earths biosphere even if we get TCN is FUBAR. On the other hand even if we evacuate all our people 2/3 of the human race would still be on earth. What I am coming to realize is that of you treat any category as a "dump stat" or prioritize a category at the expense of others we will screw ourselves.
 
[X]Plan Carter's Terrible Flock of Probes

Now that's a lot of probes.
Also laughed because our resolution to the coffee crisis was finally accepting that there is no longer any coffee available and we'll have to make due with other sources of caffeine.
Gives me the image of some tech shotgunning energy drinks.
 
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