- Location
- Mid-Atlantic
Derpmind, since you listed a lot of things and I'm a bit gun-shy about spaghetti rule violations, I'm going to insert numbers into your quote box and reply selectively to specific details.
2) See above; I often miss development bonuses.
3a) Our Energy surplus is huge, but think about the timeline. Suppose it takes two turns to research Improved CC Fusion. Unless we massively overinvest in the first phase of second generation fusion plants as a rush job, something I for one got very tired of doing on the first-generation plants during the Regency War, the odds are good that it will take at least two more turns to get the first phase of fusion plants. Possibly three turns. Now, +43 Energy seems pretty good for now, but I'd rather not pre-commit to accepting the need to have to make that +43 Energy last us four whole turns, potentially five.
3b) Note that I'm not using an actual second Heavy Industry die here; if I wanted to overinvest I'd use two and drop the LVPAD project. I'm using Erewhon. The thing is, Erewhon has to go somewhere, and on any given turn one of the most impactful things Erewhon can do is to take a project costing roughly 120 Progress and promote it from something like a 10-20% chance of success to something like a 60-70% chance of success. I think this is a reasonable way to allocate Erewhon. The way I see it, it's the equivalent of putting 2/3 of a Free die on Heavy Industry, alongside the Free dice being allocated to Tiberium, Orbital, and Military. In my honest assessment, Heavy Industry is worth it.
7) Noted
8) Absent-mindedness.
Second, because the increase in likelihood of project completion is +71%, which is massive.
Third, I do indeed consider the likelihood of reaping the benefits one turn sooner to be worth it, though if it weren't also for the fact that it leads to quality of life boosts (lots of people going to work less groggy all over the world), I might be waffling on the subject.
Fourth and connected to the other issues, we seem to have plenty of Agriculture dice within the Plan to hit our Plan targets, maybe even to hit them well ahead of schedule, so I'm willing to gamble on rolling an extra kudzu die when there was a 91% chance we'd wind up needing to roll it anyway.
But in Q3, when we can focus the majority of our dice on Vertical Farming and whatever comes "next" (probably some combination of Vertical Farming Stage 3 and Agricultural Mechanization Phase 2), I'll be willing to put a die on poulticeplant development. It is at least worth trying to roll out the first phase of the project.
1) So noted. My station cost figures have been a mess. I am in the process of doing a draft that will fix it.1) I always use cumulative totals for multi-phase projects in the Array, so you can just crib the numbers from there if you want. (And/or use it to double-check.)
2) This is missing the +5 Development bonus. This should be 79%. (Or 78.55%, if you prefer.)
3) Also, given our huge +Energy surplus and the slow rate at which we're spending Energy, I don't see the need or benefit to rushing this when just 1 HI die has a good 34% chance. And doing it this way, there's a 21% chance it still fails and requires a second HI die the next turn anyways.
4) Kuzdu is at 315/450, not 231/450. (So one die here is 9% and two dice is 80%.)
5) I believe this comes from an error in an earlier version of Lightwhispers' mathpost, which he has since corrected. Funnily enough, the same error snuck its way into Ithillid's draft of the results post.
2) See above; I often miss development bonuses.
3a) Our Energy surplus is huge, but think about the timeline. Suppose it takes two turns to research Improved CC Fusion. Unless we massively overinvest in the first phase of second generation fusion plants as a rush job, something I for one got very tired of doing on the first-generation plants during the Regency War, the odds are good that it will take at least two more turns to get the first phase of fusion plants. Possibly three turns. Now, +43 Energy seems pretty good for now, but I'd rather not pre-commit to accepting the need to have to make that +43 Energy last us four whole turns, potentially five.
3b) Note that I'm not using an actual second Heavy Industry die here; if I wanted to overinvest I'd use two and drop the LVPAD project. I'm using Erewhon. The thing is, Erewhon has to go somewhere, and on any given turn one of the most impactful things Erewhon can do is to take a project costing roughly 120 Progress and promote it from something like a 10-20% chance of success to something like a 60-70% chance of success. I think this is a reasonable way to allocate Erewhon. The way I see it, it's the equivalent of putting 2/3 of a Free die on Heavy Industry, alongside the Free dice being allocated to Tiberium, Orbital, and Military. In my honest assessment, Heavy Industry is worth it.
6) Noted.6) You'll want to add in (7 dice, 140 R).
7) This is missing the +3 AEVA bonus. It should be 96% Stage 11, 11% Stage 12.
8) Why do you have this at 0/540? This is currently at 147/180 progress for Phase 3. (And so should be at 147/540 for 3+4+5.) Three dice is 80% for Phase 4.
9) This is incorrectly at 0/125 instead of 56/125. And you're missing the +5 Development bonus; this should be 82%.
7) Noted
8) Absent-mindedness.
I would say "yes." First, because the kudzu is a direct powerful contributor to a Plan goal (Consumer Goods from farming).Is it worth overkilling Kudzu, to make sure that we get the +1 to all dice rolls as early as possible?
Second, because the increase in likelihood of project completion is +71%, which is massive.
Third, I do indeed consider the likelihood of reaping the benefits one turn sooner to be worth it, though if it weren't also for the fact that it leads to quality of life boosts (lots of people going to work less groggy all over the world), I might be waffling on the subject.
Fourth and connected to the other issues, we seem to have plenty of Agriculture dice within the Plan to hit our Plan targets, maybe even to hit them well ahead of schedule, so I'm willing to gamble on rolling an extra kudzu die when there was a 91% chance we'd wind up needing to roll it anyway.
Review, yes. Crop research, not yet for me. We still have a LOT of Plan target stuff to hack through in Agriculture. And the caffeinated kudzu project is unfinished business to attend to. And I for one want to start work on expanding the vertical farming infrastructure to provide more luxury goods and more bulk Food, because our actual bulk Food surplus is a little bit thin for my liking right now.Review in Agri in Q2? Plus 2 dice on kudzu and a dice on Poulticeplants/Tarberry?
But in Q3, when we can focus the majority of our dice on Vertical Farming and whatever comes "next" (probably some combination of Vertical Farming Stage 3 and Agricultural Mechanization Phase 2), I'll be willing to put a die on poulticeplant development. It is at least worth trying to roll out the first phase of the project.
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