Derpmind, since you listed a lot of things and I'm a bit gun-shy about spaghetti rule violations, I'm going to insert numbers into your quote box and reply selectively to specific details.

1) I always use cumulative totals for multi-phase projects in the Array, so you can just crib the numbers from there if you want. (And/or use it to double-check.)

2) This is missing the +5 Development bonus. This should be 79%. (Or 78.55%, if you prefer.)

3) Also, given our huge +Energy surplus and the slow rate at which we're spending Energy, I don't see the need or benefit to rushing this when just 1 HI die has a good 34% chance. And doing it this way, there's a 21% chance it still fails and requires a second HI die the next turn anyways.

4) Kuzdu is at 315/450, not 231/450. (So one die here is 9% and two dice is 80%.)

5) I believe this comes from an error in an earlier version of Lightwhispers' mathpost, which he has since corrected. Funnily enough, the same error snuck its way into Ithillid's draft of the results post.
1) So noted. My station cost figures have been a mess. I am in the process of doing a draft that will fix it.

2) See above; I often miss development bonuses.

3a) Our Energy surplus is huge, but think about the timeline. Suppose it takes two turns to research Improved CC Fusion. Unless we massively overinvest in the first phase of second generation fusion plants as a rush job, something I for one got very tired of doing on the first-generation plants during the Regency War, the odds are good that it will take at least two more turns to get the first phase of fusion plants. Possibly three turns. Now, +43 Energy seems pretty good for now, but I'd rather not pre-commit to accepting the need to have to make that +43 Energy last us four whole turns, potentially five.

3b) Note that I'm not using an actual second Heavy Industry die here; if I wanted to overinvest I'd use two and drop the LVPAD project. I'm using Erewhon. The thing is, Erewhon has to go somewhere, and on any given turn one of the most impactful things Erewhon can do is to take a project costing roughly 120 Progress and promote it from something like a 10-20% chance of success to something like a 60-70% chance of success. I think this is a reasonable way to allocate Erewhon. The way I see it, it's the equivalent of putting 2/3 of a Free die on Heavy Industry, alongside the Free dice being allocated to Tiberium, Orbital, and Military. In my honest assessment, Heavy Industry is worth it.

6) You'll want to add in (7 dice, 140 R).

7) This is missing the +3 AEVA bonus. It should be 96% Stage 11, 11% Stage 12.

8) Why do you have this at 0/540? This is currently at 147/180 progress for Phase 3. (And so should be at 147/540 for 3+4+5.) Three dice is 80% for Phase 4.

9) This is incorrectly at 0/125 instead of 56/125. And you're missing the +5 Development bonus; this should be 82%.
6) Noted.

7) Noted

8) Absent-mindedness.

Is it worth overkilling Kudzu, to make sure that we get the +1 to all dice rolls as early as possible?
I would say "yes." First, because the kudzu is a direct powerful contributor to a Plan goal (Consumer Goods from farming).

Second, because the increase in likelihood of project completion is +71%, which is massive.

Third, I do indeed consider the likelihood of reaping the benefits one turn sooner to be worth it, though if it weren't also for the fact that it leads to quality of life boosts (lots of people going to work less groggy all over the world), I might be waffling on the subject.

Fourth and connected to the other issues, we seem to have plenty of Agriculture dice within the Plan to hit our Plan targets, maybe even to hit them well ahead of schedule, so I'm willing to gamble on rolling an extra kudzu die when there was a 91% chance we'd wind up needing to roll it anyway.

Review in Agri in Q2? Plus 2 dice on kudzu and a dice on Poulticeplants/Tarberry?
Review, yes. Crop research, not yet for me. We still have a LOT of Plan target stuff to hack through in Agriculture. And the caffeinated kudzu project is unfinished business to attend to. And I for one want to start work on expanding the vertical farming infrastructure to provide more luxury goods and more bulk Food, because our actual bulk Food surplus is a little bit thin for my liking right now.

But in Q3, when we can focus the majority of our dice on Vertical Farming and whatever comes "next" (probably some combination of Vertical Farming Stage 3 and Agricultural Mechanization Phase 2), I'll be willing to put a die on poulticeplant development. It is at least worth trying to roll out the first phase of the project.
 
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710 (Q1 base income) +340 (income change) -75 (critical failure)
CAUTIOUS BUDGET: 975 R

910/975 R

[] 2062Q2 Draft Plan Attempting to Build The Space House, Version II

-[] Infrastructure (5/5 Dice, +36 bonus, 90 R)
--[] Blue Zone Apartments (Phase 10) 87/160 (1 die, 10 R) (79% chance)
--[] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 2) 22/250 (2 dice, 50 R) (18% chance)
--[] Urban Metros (Phase 4) 0/150 (2 dice, 30 R) (81% chance)

-[] Heavy Industry (4/4 Dice + EREWHON!!!, +33 bonus, 80 R)
--[] Improved Continuous Cycle Fusion Development 0/120 (1+E die, 40 R) (79% chance)
---[] I want to get on with this so we can be confident in doing Energy-hungry things like BZ Inhibitors.
--[] Low Velocity Particle Applicator Development 0/120 (1 die, 20 R) (34% chance)
--[] Personal Electric Vehicle Plants 0/300 (2 dice, 20 R) (45% chance)

-[] Light Industry (4/4 Dice, +28 bonus, 80 R)
--[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5) 50/1280 (4 dice, 80 R) (4/15.5 median)

-[] Agriculture (4/4 Dice, +28 bonus, 35 R)
--[] Vertical Farming Projects (Stage 3) 74/240 (1 die, 15 R) (1/2 median)
--[] Wadmalaw Kudzu Plantations (Phase 3) 315/450 (2 dice, 20 R) (80% chance)
--[] Agriculture Security Review

-[] Tiberium (7 Dice + 1 Free die, +39 bonus, 170 R)
--[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2+3+4+5) 5/750 (7 dice, 140 R) (Stage 3, 82% Stage 4, 8% Stage 5)
--[] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (YZ-11 Colombia) 0/130 (1 die, 30 R) (24% chance)
---[] I know the YZ-11 inhibitor isn't required.
---[] It's part of my new passion project.
---[] Which is not letting tiberium touch lava.

-[] Orbital (6 + 4 Free dice, +33 bonus, 190 R)
--[] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11+12) 32/170 (1 die, 10 R) (96% Stage 11, 11% Stage 12)
--[] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1+2+3) 0/475 (9 dice, 180 R) (Phase 3, 9/11.5 median on Phase 4)

-[] Services (5/5 Dice, +31 bonus, 105 R)
--[] Gene Clinics 94/120 (1 die, 10 R) (100% chance)
--[] Regional Hospital Expansions (Phase 1) 213/300 (1 die, 25 R) (56% chance)
--[] Kamisuwa Optical Laboratories 0/250 (1 die, 20 R) (1/3 median)
--[] Ocular Implant Deployment 0/200 (2 dice, 50 R) (31% chance)

-[] Military (8 + 2 Free dice, +30 bonus, 160 R)
--[] Railgun Munitions Factories (Phase 1) 142/200 (1 die, 10 R) (88% chance)
--[] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 1) (Phase 3+4+5) 147/540 (3 dice, 60 R) (80% Phase 4, 18% Phase 5)
--[] GD-3 Rifle Development 0/30 (1 die, 10 R) (100% chance)
--[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyards (Seattle) 0/300 (3 dice, 60 R) (20% chance)
--[] Modular Rapid Assembly System Prototypes 56/125 (1 die, 20 R) (82% chance)
--[] Military Security Review (1 die)
--[] I have decided to let ferro-aluminum wait for the Department of Refits.
--[] With this kind of budget, it's not worth the dice now, not with so much else to be done.

-[] Bureaucracy (4 Dice, +28 bonus)
--[] Focus Reallocation: Services to Heavy Industry (1 die)
--[] Agriculture Security Review (1 die)
--[] Military Security Review (2 dice)
---[] It's the military. One die will probably succeed, but I don't want to mess around.



Possible modifications to the plan that I consider reasonably sensible include:

1) Cutting one or both Urban Metros dice to fund more Suborbital Shuttles. However, narratively, Urban Metros is probably the more valued project in that it significantly benefits our new secondary/tertiary city populations, even if the raw bulk +Logistics return on investment isn't quite as big.

2) Peeling a few dice off Columbia to work on the gravitic shipyard (not a bad idea) or Shala (likewise). However, the gravitic shipyard isn't in a rush and the G-drive advances we're working on aren't ready yet anyway, nor is the design of the ship we'd want to build in the yard. And since Advanced Alloys might (MIGHT!) save us extra Progress on Shala, and since we can very profitably use all our dice working on Columbia, I think we can afford to wait a turn or two to start Shala.

3) We actually definitely have enough funds to just say "fuckit" and throw all our Light Industry dice at Bergen, but I don't think that's really necessary and Reykjavik is an important project too.
 
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Hrm...
I think the only thing I'd change is to move two dice from the ZA Factories to Reykjavik.
iirc, there is a bit of a bottleneck around training people how to use ZA at the moment, so I'm not sure we have anything to gain by slamming out factories super quickly at the moment. Steady progress is more what we need.
However, we need to complete Reykjavik and Bergen this Plan (neither of which we can afford to postpone), and Reykjavik makes ZA cheaper (as well as other things). So I'd be pushing Reykjavik a bit harder.

I guess I'd also strongly consider moving the GD-3 die onto the Frigate Yard too. Will be so good to have those Yards finally finished.
 
--[] Improved Continuous Cycle Fusion Development 0/120 (1+E die, 40 R) (79% chance)
---[] I want to get on with this so we can be confident in doing Energy-hungry things like BZ Inhibitors.

Hmm...

Do you think advanced alloys would have a effect on the new power plant development?

If so, and if they help discount space stuff, would it be a good idea to just commit heavy industry to that till it's done?

Assuming of course that advanced alloys is a heavy industry project and is confirmed to help those areas.

I think the only thing I'd change is to move two dice from the ZA Factories to Reykjavik.
iirc, there is a bit of a bottleneck around training people how to use ZA at the moment, so I'm not sure we have anything to gain by slamming out factories super quickly at the moment. Steady progress is more what we need.
That's a pretty good point actually.

A slowdown on armor factories makes sense with training being the bottleneck. Rushing the mega project that directly benefits the armor and armor factories is a good compromise.
 
Hrm...
I think the only thing I'd change is to move two dice from the ZA Factories to Reykjavik.
iirc, there is a bit of a bottleneck around training people how to use ZA at the moment, so I'm not sure we have anything to gain by slamming out factories super quickly at the moment. Steady progress is more what we need.
See, the thing is, I already played that card last turn. I don't want to play it again; I'd feel dishonest. We're not where I'd like us to be with respect to power armor production, because even insofar as there's a training bottleneck, I do want to make sure we have enough actual suits to do everything that is required, including both Red Zone operation security and our plans for Karachi.

I care more about that than I do about strictly optimizing our build order, so I'm definitely down for slamming out 5-6 Zone Armor factories before completing Reykjavik Phase 5. We'll still enjoy the benefits of the cost reductions on the second and third-string factory sets, sooner or later.

The delayed perfect is sometimes the enemy of the prompt good.

However, we need to complete Reykjavik and Bergen this Plan (neither of which we can afford to postpone), and Reykjavik makes ZA cheaper (as well as other things). So I'd be pushing Reykjavik a bit harder.
I wouldn't. See, the thing is, Reykjavik completes anyway in about four more turns. We've got plenty of time to finish Reykjavik and Bergen, and no other urgent Light Industry priorities.

I guess I'd also strongly consider moving the GD-3 die onto the Frigate Yard too. Will be so good to have those Yards finally finished.
I actually might go for that. I really do want the GD-3, though, and it frustrates me that we keep putting it off. With Karachi coming up, we want some time to get upgraded small arms production running... but the same argument applies to the frigate yard.

Hmm...

Do you think advanced alloys would have a effect on the new power plant development?
We've been given an explicit list of things that will immediately help with the development and to my mild surprise, Advanced Alloys wasn't on it.

Furthermore, the perfect is the enemy of the good. We've made major strides in the technologies that support fusion power, including superconductor mass production and frickin' force fields. I am content to integrate these and only these techs into second generation fusion, in exchange for having a workable design that can be deployed by, say, mid-2063 in a reasonably timely manner. Because we do definitely need to deploy significant numbers of second generation fusion plants in order to start taking offline and refitting/refurbishing the aging first generation plants. And we don't want to be doing that at the last minute, either.

That's a pretty good point actually.

A slowdown on armor factories makes sense with training being the bottleneck.
We already played that card last turn and arguably to some extent the turn before. We can't go on playing it indefinitely, and I think the time for further delay has passed, with a real, legitimate need to push construction and get back on track after the disappointing results from 2061Q4 and 2062Q1.
 
See, the thing is, Reykjavik completes anyway in about four more turns.
Sure it does. It won't get dropped in favour of another project again at all. That never happens.
The delayed perfect is sometimes the enemy of the prompt good.
You took the situation to an extreme. Nobody mentioned delaying all the ZA factories. What was mentioned was not trying to rush them out.
Finishing the macrospinner site is well overdue. This is way beyond any optimisation of build orders. The last expansion was completed over 2 years ago.
Your proposed spending, if continued, would complete Reykjavik 5 in 4 turns. But would complete Set 1 of the ZA factories in only 2 turns. So, would we enjoy the benefits of the cost reductions on the second set, or would there be more excuses as to why we still haven't finished Reykjavik?
 
Sure it does. It won't get dropped in favour of another project again at all. That never happens.
Oh, come on. It's a mandatory megaproject, and the cost per die is manageable. It's not going to get ignored. The only reason people weren't rolling dice on it in Q1 is because it's a 20 R/die project and the budget was a bit tender what with all the meme project level tiberium mining we were doing.

Now, I'm averse to spaghetti infractions, so I'm gonna format like this...

...

"You took the situation to an extreme. Nobody mentioned delaying all the ZA factories. What was mentioned was not trying to rush them out."

You have to split some pretty narrow hairs to draw a clear line between "delaying" and "not trying to rush them out." Where, exactly, do you draw the line? If we do as you suggest, we take two dice off zone armor. There were only three dice on it to begin with. Is your idea of a reasonable pace one die per turn? Because at that rate we'll barely be able to hit our production target at the end of the Plan. Given that we've caused ZOCOM and Ground Force to seriously extend themselves with our border offensives, and will cause further military extension with Karachi, that's going to come across as malicious compliance with the production target.

I was content to roll two dice in Q3, and two dice in Q4, and two dice in Q1. And we are not doing great in terms of actual production output. We got one factory in Q3, a second delayed by a natural one in Q4, and none in Q1. Now I want to roll three dice to try and catch up, so that we can hopefully get the fourth factory in Q2 along with the third.

Cutting back production to one die per turn does represent major delays in production, because it means that realistically Ground Force gets the third factory in Q2, but doesn't get the fourth until 2062Q4. I'm simply not content to accept the factory expansion rate you imply, for the sake of slightly accelerating Reykjavik Phase 5. Because if we do it your way, we get Reykjavik around 2062Q4 too, so maybe we get the benefit on the fourth or fifth factory. If we do it my way, we get Reykjavik done around 2063Q1 or so, and we maybe get it on the sixth or seventh.

It's just not that big of a deal compared to leaving the Ground Forces under tight supply constraints.

...

"Finishing the macrospinner site is well overdue. This is way beyond any optimisation of build orders. The last expansion was completed over 2 years ago."

That's a self-imposed deadline. We're not getting in-story narrative feedback saying "you know what's really crippling our economy? Not having enough myomers." Myomers are nice and we could use more, but finishing the megafactory wasn't somehow "due" in 2060 or 2061, any more than the power armor factories were. Arguably less so, because Ground Force was fighting a major infantry war at the time and would have been happy to accept power armor with or without the extra myomer factories.

...

"Your proposed spending, if continued, would complete Reykjavik 5 in 4 turns. But would complete Set 1 of the ZA factories in only 2 turns. So, would we enjoy the benefits of the cost reductions on the second set, or would there be more excuses as to why we still haven't finished Reykjavik?"

My proposed spending uses three dice in part to compensate for disappointing results on the Q4 and Q1 dice rolls. If things go well, we'll be able to easily finish a fifth factory in Q2 or Q3, and then we'll seek feedback from Ground Force about how urgent the sixth is.

But the thing is... those factory cost reductions... we've seen the effects. We know what happens to the cost of a Ground Force Zone Armor plant when we expand Reykjavik. These are not large cost reductions we're talking about here. Progress cost might drop 5, 10, 15, maybe 20 points.

Getting that cost reduction on a couple of extra factories is probably going to result in us spending one less Military die when integrated out over the next four or so factories. In exchange, we'd need to delay construction of the factories by about nine months.

Unless you have hard figures on the training bottleneck, I say it's not worth it.

I was on literally the same side of this debate you are now, last turn. I played that card, because I believed it could safely be played... once. I'm not going to play it again.
 
That's a self-imposed deadline. We're not getting in-story narrative feedback saying "you know what's really crippling our economy? Not having enough myomers." Myomers are nice and we could use more, but finishing the megafactory wasn't somehow "due" in 2060 or 2061, any more than the power armor factories were. Arguably less so, because Ground Force was fighting a major infantry war at the time and would have been happy to accept power armor with or without the extra myomer factories.
Errr... We don't have narrative feedback here?
Private industry – even hammered by the war effort, rationing, and the need for capital goods for supplies – has expressed significant interest in beginning to produce their own myomer bundles, both because it is a relatively cheap capital good to produce in the small and very small scales, and a means of significantly increasing their efficiencies elsewhere.
Lack of sufficient access to capital goods for digitalization and automation of systems.
Cos that looks like narrative cluebat to me.

We've been missing something that would allow private enterprise to start producing a trickle of Capitol Goods. And I don't think we really need to look that far to find possibilities...
 
Errr... We don't have narrative feedback here?

1) "Private industry – even hammered by the war effort, rationing, and the need for capital goods for supplies – has expressed significant interest in beginning to produce their own myomer bundles, both because it is a relatively cheap capital good to produce in the small and very small scales, and a means of significantly increasing their efficiencies elsewhere"
2) "Lack of sufficient access to capital goods for digitalization and automation of systems."

Cos that looks like narrative cluebat to me.

We've been missing something that would allow private enterprise to start producing a trickle of Capitol Goods. And I don't think we really need to look that far to find possibilities...
In regards to your second quote, you can't digitize and automate systems with a pile of myomer bundles. (2) is an obvious reference to electronics and chip production, which has been a major part of capital goods output throughout the quest.

In regards to your first quote, private industry is interested in producing their own myomer bundles. Private industry is interested in doing a lot of things. That doesn't mean they are all "overdue" simultaneously. Furthermore, nothing is actually stopping private industry from constructing myomer spinners of their own, now that we have the banks, the private grants and Capital Goods allotments, and the DHIA up and going.

If we applied your standards consistently, then there's some sense where everything is a permanent screaming mess of impossible deadlines that we can never "meet" because to meet one is to accept that several others will not be met. For instance, the Ground Force Zone Armor plants are "overdue" in that the military has been asking for them for years and has told us in no uncertain terms that they want them.

To be clear, I'm not saying there is no narrative indication that "more myomers would be nice." More of a lot of things would be nice. More yummy food, more housing, more power armor, more myomers, more tiberium mines, more inhibitors, more this, more that.

What I'm saying is that there is no narrative indication is that this is some vital thing that we've somehow seriously endangered our economy by neglecting. The idea that Reykjavik Phase 5 is "overdue" just because we didn't finish it directly and immediately after Phase 4 of the same project is an entirely self-imposed deadline.
 
Any idea how to approach Alloys deployment?

I can see 3 scenarios:

1) Delay Megaprojects (Chicago, Boston, Reykjavik/Bergen), alloys first. LCI and Infra switch to smaller projects (Con goods, Logistics and Housing);

2) Delay Alloys, Megaprojects first;

3) Only HI focuses on Alloys, Chicago and Reykjavik/Bergen proceed as planned.

Which poison should be picked?
 
Any idea how to approach Alloys deployment?

I can see 3 scenarios:

1) Delay Megaprojects (Chicago, Boston, Reykjavik/Bergen), alloys first. LCI and Infra switch to smaller projects (Con goods, Logistics and Housing);

2) Delay Alloys, Megaprojects first;

3) Only HI focuses on Alloys, Chicago and Reykjavik/Bergen proceed as planned.

Which poison should be picked?
I say we work on Reykjavik and Advanced Alloys first, because Reykjavik is a fairly delimited project and we can live with the inefficiency in an area like Light Industry where dice just are not all that tightly constrained.

Chicago can wait in and of itself; there is no urgent need to complete Phase 5 right away, so we can afford to at least wait for some phases of the alloy project.

Bergen, likewise, must be completed by the end of the Plan but simply is not an urgent project we need to hurry, so if it has to be delayed slightly that's not a problem, especially if we take that time to work on Reykjavik.

The big X-factor is whether it's advantageous to us to work on Advanced Alloys first and try to complete North Boston (and/or Nuuk Phase 4, which is not a Plan target but would sure be helpful) second. To think rationally about that, we really do need to consider a few things.

For instance, North Boston is a 2400-point project. If five phases of Advanced Alloys cuts that to, say, 1800 points, at the cost of spending 1000 points on the alloys, then we haven't saved time on net- though the savings to Boston have substantially offset, so we actually get North Boston Phase 5 only about 1-2 turns later than would otherwise be the case. Sort of a "Buy One, Get One Half Off" deal... and the savings from Advanced Alloys would continue to accrue.

Basically, I for one am thinking in terms of getting improved fusion out of the way (so that we can build more power whenever we need) and finishing off Personal Electric Vehicles in Q2, because I don't want us to forget our ongoing projects for the sake of a new shiny. But after that, I want an aggressive push on Advanced Alloys in Q3-Q4, while Reykjavik completes over in Light Industry.

Then we start Chicago Phase 5 some time in, say, 2062Q4-2063Q1 with the goal of finishing it before we start Karachi; Advanced Alloys may or may not be complete at that point and I don't much care. North Boston Phase 5 starts right after Advanced Alloys. Karachi starts in 2063Q4, which is probably about when we're ready to start mashing the "GO" button on Bergen, plus or minus a turn.
 
For instance, North Boston is a 2400-point project. If five phases of Advanced Alloys cuts that to, say, 1800 points, at the cost of spending 1000 points on the alloys, then we haven't saved time on net- though the savings to Boston have substantially offset, so we actually get North Boston Phase 5 only about 1-2 turns later than would otherwise be the case. Sort of a "Buy One, Get One Half Off" deal... and the savings from Advanced Alloys would continue to accrue.

For the record, overall cost of Alloys was not mentioned yet. For all we know it could be 5 stages for 2000 progress.
 
So do you guys talk about anything interesting or did I miss the fun conversations
 
<Stuff which is fine and I agree with, expect the last line which I'll get to later.>
Sorry, I seem to be too tired today to make much sense. Keep forgetting half of what I'm trying to say as I try to type it.
I'll redo from start and try to not miss details this time. Can't guarantee that this is still a mess though.

What I should have said way back at the top, was that I was concerned that we were still putting free dice in Military but not into Industry. Meaning that Military is doing more than HI and LCI combined.
When we are not on a war footing, I find this extremely concerning. We have two very competent people boosting our dice in Military, so we shouldn't be throwing free dice in there consistently all the time.
Our industrial areas, however, do not have any specific extra dice there, yet we haven't sent much in the way of free dice in their direction recently except to ensure we kept everything powered.
It generally appears to me that Industry gets overlooked due to not having big goals or targets like we get for Orbital, or the confidence indicators and priorities we get for Military. Except that Industry (along with tib mining) is what underpins our ability to deliver on those more advanced goals. (And the Economic Census made it pretty clear that if we had indicators, they'd be really bad.) That we have been given Plan Goals of finishing industrial megaprojects may be an indication that parliament agrees that we are not focussing enough on Industrial capabilities.
So I looked at 2 free dice in Military, and none in Industry and thought about what could be tweaked.
To meet our ZA factory goal, we only need to complete a factory every two turns. This means that three dice in one turn is overkill. Normally I would accept it as a catch up, but narratively our sudden ZA push appeared to have hit a bottleneck last turn, one we have likely just made worse this turn with the big RZ push. Therefore, I do not expect it to matter whether we complete 1 or 2 factories this turn.
And another detail that didn't make it to the keyboard, those dice that are being used on the Seattle Frigate Yard this coming turn, will be free to support ZA Factories the turn after. I had not meant to imply that we should only be putting 1 die on ZA factories for the rest of the Plan. My intention was that we would slow up while the bottleneck sorts out, and then we can get back to them. But that detail got lost in the brain fog.
I suggest dropping the GD-3 Rifle development for now, as we need to free up dice for the deployment. Which should be available after we finish the Seattle Frigate yard. Although we may need to see if the Modular Rapid Assembly System Prototypes need further input. The lack of development suggests not, but we'll have to wait to find out.

Now the bit I disagreed with, I think that there are a lot of reasons why the private industry cannot produce their own myomer bundles. Private industry is still in a really bad place at the moment. We've only been able to make small improvements to some of the areas that were raised by the Economic Census. In many ways, while they really want some myomer bundles, they might not be able to afford to get some and have remaining capitol to do something with them as well.
Reykjavik 5 was designed to be supplying everyone with myomer bundles, including private industry. Yes, they do need more computational hardware, but they also need something to do with that computational hardware. The private industry sector has gone through so much gutting due to everything, that we are attempting to reboot entire manufacturing sectors that don't have functional supply chains or customers to sell to (depending on exactly what sector is being examined). Most of these areas have been non-functional since before this quest started, which is why it is such a big problem. The whole 'industrial eco-system' outside of official GDI has collapsed.
We can supply them with funds and raw materials. And eventually, they will build the tools that build the tools that build the tools that they need. But that is going to be really slow.
What they really need, is a big range of capitol goods to be available to them, including myomers. And we are still stockpiling all capitol goods. DHIA is sending the ones they produce to our stockpiles. No capitol goods grants have gone out yet. Just the release from what we seized at the start of the last conflict.
Things will improve a little when we stop stockpiling. But the economy wasn't exactly recovering before the war when we weren't stockpiling. And what little it did recover required us to build industrial parks first. So the trickle of our excess capitol goods is not going to be enough. We need to turn that trickle into a river, and likely build additional infrastructure. Which might also be a reason we've been told to finish industrial mega projects. Our +20 Capitol Goods looks okay from our end. But I think that is because it only accounts for government usage. Private enterprise is probably looking at something more like -40.
A further benefit to being able to pour lots of capitol goods into the private sector is that other issue that has been raised. Everyone wants to work for GDI. Likely because we have all the toys/capitol goods at the moment.
The private sector isn't going to have the expertise to build their own good stuff, if all the expertise works for us. Spinning off dice into sub-bureaus doesn't really help with this, as they are still working for GDI. (Could split off eventually. But not until the private sector actually works.) So we need to inject basically everything into the private sector, at the same time, for the private sector to become self-sustaining again.

Which is a huge rambling way to saying that I think the private sector really needs their myomer bundles.
They also need their computer chips, but sheesh, let's start with the less eye-watering project...


So do you guys talk about anything interesting or did I miss the fun conversations
We are waiting for an exciting turn results post. Because of various factors, we don't know exactly what to expect, which makes it a bit hard to discuss much without it being pure speculation.
 
For the record, overall cost of Alloys was not mentioned yet. For all we know it could be 5 stages for 2000 progress.
In that case, the analysis would be different, yes. I often have to revisit my plan-drafting decisions to some extent when the actual vote comes around and the turn post drops. For instance, in this case, the slot for LVPAD in my draft might be replaced by a single die on Advanced Alloys, though I'd still want to finish Personal Electric Vehicles. If Advanced Alloys looks really good, I might even shift a die or two off Orbital and the push for Columbia to get some progress on it.

Obviously, any estimation or expectation I express is subject to revision.

What I should have said way back at the top, was that I was concerned that we were still putting free dice in Military but not into Industry. Meaning that Military is doing more than HI and LCI combined.
I'm basically only putting the Free dice on to make up for a trio of natural ones, effectively speaking.

There's a third power armor die because I'm trying to compensate for the very disappointing results of the London factory project in 2061Q4, and to make sure that whatever problems we have because of the Natural One in the glacier/RZBO operations, they don't become too much worse than they have to be for lack of security troops.

And there's three Seattle dice, but we probably wouldn't need that many if we hadn't had to redo the New York/Newark carrier yard from scratch after that natural one with the tiberium vein in Brooklyn.

If it weren't for our bad luck in those departments lately, I think we'd be ticking along smoothly enough that I'd be comfortable with the standard eight dice. As it is, I'm trying to invest a little harder to push some projects forward that got delayed or undermined by the bad luck. It doesn't reflect my standard preferences or philosophies, okay?

Now the bit I disagreed with, I think that there are a lot of reasons why the private industry cannot produce their own myomer bundles. Private industry is still in a really bad place at the moment. We've only been able to make small improvements to some of the areas that were raised by the Economic Census. In many ways, while they really want some myomer bundles, they might not be able to afford to get some and have remaining capitol to do something with them as well.
Reykjavik 5 was designed to be supplying everyone with myomer bundles, including private industry. Yes, they do need more computational hardware, but they also need something to do with that computational hardware...
Yeah, but myomers in particular are only one type of industrial good out of very, very many others.

It seems as if you're using this one specific industrial megaproject as a proxy for the whole economy, for the fact that we need to fuel GDI's industrial economy in a hundred ways. But it's not, it's literally just a giant factory in one place that makes exactly one kind of thing. We can have a healthy economy with it in the current levels of supply, even if it would be better to have more. So to call the Phase 5 expansion "overdue" is basically to draw up a self-imposed deadline and then yell at ourselves for 'failing' to meet it, when we had other things to do that did objectively make sense to do and were not just some kind of dumb mistake.

What they really need, is a big range of capitol goods to be available to them, including myomers. And we are still stockpiling all capitol goods. DHIA is sending the ones they produce to our stockpiles. No capitol goods grants have gone out yet. Just the release from what we seized at the start of the last conflict.
There was that +5 we explicitly threw out there as a favor to the FMP.

More generally, I think you're trying to treat specific megaprojects as the solution to problems that aren't amenable to solution by megaproject. If and as the problems you describe really need to be addressed, the healthier solution in practice would be to do another grant program or expand the DHIA or something like that. Rush-building Reykjavik Phase 5 in 2-3 turns isn't going to help as much.
 
3a) Our Energy surplus is huge, but think about the timeline. Suppose it takes two turns to research Improved CC Fusion. Unless we massively overinvest in the first phase of second generation fusion plants as a rush job, something I for one got very tired of doing on the first-generation plants during the Regency War, the odds are good that it will take at least two more turns to get the first phase of fusion plants. Possibly three turns. Now, +43 Energy seems pretty good for now, but I'd rather not pre-commit to accepting the need to have to make that +43 Energy last us four whole turns, potentially five.
But why would it take two/three turns after we finish the research to build the 2nd gen fusion plants? Most research projects create a follow-up project right after they finish, and this is far more on the engineering side of things than some kind of long-term scientific study. Plus, we can't over-invest in our second gen fusion plants. It'll be a multi-phase project that we can put more dice into without ever wasting progress.

Besides, doing a "rush job" for a phase of current-gen Fusion requires 5 dice for a 98% completion chance. We're likely to put more dice in one project for constructing mega-projects like Boston or Nuuk. And uh, like it or not, unless we cut down on our Energy usage and/or the Division of Alternative Energy generates more Energy per turn, we're going to have to build a lot of 2nd-gen fusion plants this Plan.
3b) Note that I'm not using an actual second Heavy Industry die here; if I wanted to overinvest I'd use two and drop the LVPAD project. I'm using Erewhon. The thing is, Erewhon has to go somewhere, and on any given turn one of the most impactful things Erewhon can do is to take a project costing roughly 120 Progress and promote it from something like a 10-20% chance of success to something like a 60-70% chance of success. I think this is a reasonable way to allocate Erewhon. The way I see it, it's the equivalent of putting 2/3 of a Free die on Heavy Industry, alongside the Free dice being allocated to Tiberium, Orbital, and Military. In my honest assessment, Heavy Industry is worth it.
With one HI and an Erewhon die, there is a 34% chance the HI die rolls high enough that the Erewhon die is wasted, a 45% chance it succeeds due to the Erewhon die, and a 21% chance the action fails. (Thus costing us a second HI die the next turn, that we'd have had to spend anyways with or without the Erewhon die.) So there's a 45% chance using Erewhon here helps, but also a 55% chance it doesn't. Meanwhile, there are any number of other projects that Erewhon can be put on with a 100% chance of all progress counting. (Including in HI, if you're willing to start on Boston or Nuuk this turn.)

You're essentially making a bet that'll pay off 45% of the time... but just using an HI die by itself already has a 34% chance of paying off. That doesn't seem like a good bet to me.
 
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There was that +5 we explicitly threw out there as a favor to the FMP.
I tried to look back, but I couldn't see a decrease applying. Have we actually paid this favor yet?
I could have easily missed it though.

More generally, I think you're trying to treat specific megaprojects as the solution to problems that aren't amenable to solution by megaproject. If and as the problems you describe really need to be addressed, the healthier solution in practice would be to do another grant program or expand the DHIA or something like that. Rush-building Reykjavik Phase 5 in 2-3 turns isn't going to help as much.
I get the impression that the capstones do lots of things. But sometimes in smaller amounts that make them harder to compare against other projects.
From pure indicators, Reykjavik 5 isn't very interesting. But we also know it will likely give double the ZA/Mech discount as it did last time. And we know it produces enough myomers for private enterprise (which was only mentioned when we completed phase 4). Phase 5 might be hiding another effect as well. But the difficultly is that all these effects are wildly different and hard to quantise, and I think we as a thread are underestimating them.

Our Orbital stations are the same in that they do many things, with even smaller indicators on them. But they are sexy and people are more than happy to throw free dice in their direction.
A lot of what I'm arguing for here is about all the ground based industrial projects. But Reyk is currently the smallest and most likely to get work happening on it.
Getting Reyk done a bit earlier doesn't seem like much by itself, but if we can do it and maintain momentum on ground based industries, we'll get Boston, Bergen and Nuuk done much earlier than our current trajectory. And that will help us a lot.
I'd really like to see something like us soft-locking 2 free dice into those projects every turn. (Not 2 in each project.) I would really like to get them rolling, but new shiny options with quick returns are always going to appear.
 
Any idea how to approach Alloys deployment?

I can see 3 scenarios:

1) Delay Megaprojects (Chicago, Boston, Reykjavik/Bergen), alloys first. LCI and Infra switch to smaller projects (Con goods, Logistics and Housing);

2) Delay Alloys, Megaprojects first;

3) Only HI focuses on Alloys, Chicago and Reykjavik/Bergen proceed as planned.

Which poison should be picked?
I think we'll likely go with a combination of all three.
The way that works is because we expect the foundry to be a multi stage/phase project, and the reason for it is because we likely will not want to sink all of the STUs straight into it.
While we do have enough STUs for the expected Alloy foundries, there are many other areas that will likely need them. So using up all our (current) generation would be reckless.
Other techs that need STUs are Hover, Lasers, Gravitic Ships, Fusion Cells, maybe Shields/new Fusion, and who knows what else that we are soon to unlock.
I estimate that as long as the costs aren't too high, we'd be able to invest 6 STUs without issue. I wouldn't want to go higher than that until we get the next gen tib refining running, as we don't really know how much better that will be.
This would look something like HI doing Alloys, and maybe a side project or two, with LCI getting Reyk done then doing side projects until the Alloys are done as far as we are comfortable with.
We may end up limited in Alloy deployment by our need to complete Boston, and other projects. While we technically have enough dice for everything, I would not assume that we aren't going to have fusion plant failures, or more Energy demanding projects. We have some Free Dice available, but not a huge amount. So it may pay well to be cautious about how much we can delay big things like Boston to get Alloy discounts. It would also be good to make more progress on Nuuk, which isn't accounted for as it isn't strictly required.
Some long term dice budgeting of extras may be useful.
 
Look I'm done arguing over what we build. I'd prefer to fucking wait until after we've seen the update and the effects it has on next turns projects, but with pre-made plans or plan outlines already being posted here's general shit I want. Hopefully some of it gets taken, at the least it shows the sort of things I want.

We've got a baseline budget of 745 income+340 resources + 100 resources held in reserve for the bank= 1185, but let's take away the banks money, and let's lower the budget to a nice round 1000, for safeties sake.

Budget 1000
infra 5 dice +3 free dice 165 R
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 7) (Updated) 93/300 3 dice 60R 91%
-[] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 2) 22/250 2 infra dice 1 free dice 75R 82%
-[] Urban Metros (Phase 4) 0/150 2 free dice 30R 81%
heavy industry 4 dice 60 R
-[] Personal Electric Vehicle Plants 112/300 1 dice 10R
-[] Microfusion Cell Development 0/60 1 die 20R 94%
-[] Improved Continuous Cycle Fusion Development 0/120 1 die 20R 34%
-[] Division of Alternative Energy -1 HI die -10RpT Auto
light industry 4 dice 65R
-[] Civilian Ultralight Factories 0/190 3 dice 45R 88%
-[] Department of Distributed Manufactures -1 L&CL die -20RpT Auto
agriculture 4 dice + 4 free dice 165 R
-[] Dairy Ranches (Phase 1+2) 0/400 4 dice 80R 12%
-[] Vertical Farming Projects (Stage 3) (Updated) 74/240 2 dice 30R 56%
-[] Poulticeplant Development 0/50 1 die 20R 99%
-[] Department of Core Crops -1 Agri die -15 RpT auto
tiberium 7 dice +1 erewhon dice 165R
-[] Improved Hewlett Gardener Process Development 0/160 2 dice 40R 83%
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2+3?) 4 dice 80R 43%
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7+8) 78/200 1 die 15R 32%
-[] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (Blue Zone 4) 0/100 1 erewhon die 30R 35%
orbital 6 dice 100R
-[] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11+12) 32/170 2 dice 20R 81%
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/345 , 4 dice 80R 62%
service 5 dice 110 R
-[] Gene Clinics 94/120 1 die 10R completes
-[] Regional Hospital Expansions (Phase 1+2) 213/600 4 dice 100R 22%
military 8 dice 160R
-[]Railgun Munitions Factories (Phase 1) 142/200 1 Dice 20R 70%
-[] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 1) (Phase 3+4) (Updated) 147/360 4 dice 80R (at least one phase guaranteed)
-[]Modular Rapid Assembly System Prototypes 56/125 1 die 20R 50% (steel talons)
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 1) 0/275 2 dice 40 R
985/1000R spent

The absolute core of my plan is agri, department of core crops. Food security. let's go into the vertical farming for both food and consumer goods. 1 dice into poultice plants for some research, the biggest spend of my plan is on dairy ranches. In which I spend a bunch of free dice.
Infra is simple 3 dice to complete a phase of fortress towns and set up for the next, some dice onto suborbitals and urban metro's to see to our logistics.
heavy everyone is talking about energy, so let's get energy. 1 dice onto alternate energy division for energy over time then 1 dice each onto researching microfusion and improved continuous cycle fusion, both have a chance to complete, spend a dice on personal vehicles to keep that ticking along
light industry, again, sub department for capitol goods and citizens might not be getting cars this turn, but they can get some planes. More seriously, it's a bunch of cheap consumer goods.
tiberium is simple too let's go into the development of improved refining research 4 dice into vein mines 1 dice into intensification for cheap tiberium that doesn't cost capitol goods, and I set erewhon loose to play with an inhibitor in blue zone 4 for the caravanserai, as a treat.
Orbital. I want to finish cleanup then 4 dice onto moon mining for more resources so there's room for more expensive stuff later on.
services, finish the gene clinics and roll out 1 wave of hospitals and hopefully a second to keep our health indicator nice and high.
lastly finishing with military. steel talons get their dice on the crawlers. railguns is continued with another dice. zone armour gets 4 dice for hopefully a bunch of progress, and the strategic area defense networks are begun
 
Hrm...
I think the only thing I'd change is to move two dice from the ZA Factories to Reykjavik.
iirc, there is a bit of a bottleneck around training people how to use ZA at the moment, so I'm not sure we have anything to gain by slamming out factories super quickly at the moment. Steady progress is more what we need.
However, we need to complete Reykjavik and Bergen this Plan (neither of which we can afford to postpone), and Reykjavik makes ZA cheaper (as well as other things). So I'd be pushing Reykjavik a bit harder.

I guess I'd also strongly consider moving the GD-3 die onto the Frigate Yard too. Will be so good to have those Yards finally finished.
The impression I have been getting is that while there is a bottleneck around training people, there is also a secondary bottleneck around actually providing sufficient suits for the people getting trained - the London factory had problems, and now the phase 3 factory failed to complete.
We can't do anything about the training bottleneck, but we can certainly ensure that they have all the materiel they need.

I certainly don't want to go below 3 dice on ZA factories for Q2, unless we get news that specifically shows my view is wrong.
So do you guys talk about anything interesting or did I miss the fun conversations
...define "interesting"?
We've certainly had some fun conversations, and some "fun" conversations, and some not-so-fun "conversations". At least from my point of view.
 
It does tend to devolve to endless revisions of pre-plans so that 2-4 posters with excessive time on their hands get to dominate plan-making.
 
It's been almost three weeks since the vote closed, so I can't really fault people for making plans in the mean time. They serve as a decent framework to base discussion around, imo.
 
Shrug. As long as there is something to discuss I'm fine with it.

It's a fun way to pass the time and hash out a framework and think about alternative ideas.
 
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