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Attempting to Fulfill the Plan: GDI Edition

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Simon_Jester said:
There are a few big catches there.

1) Because Seo has a mechanic where he can trade Political Support for glorious mad science, science we may never get a chance to do again after 2065 when he leaves office, we can use a lot of banked Political Support.

2) We may be able to get Political Support for doing things we really ought to do anyway, or would want to do anyway. For instance, the Navy might say "I will give you +5 PS if you promise to build the Seattle frigate yard, research the Governor-A redesign, do the Infernium Laser Refits for us, and complete two phases of Railgun Munitions by 2063Q4." All of those are things we would want to do anyway for the sake of having a military capable of handling Karachi, so we might as well get some respect for it.

3) To some extent, by using Political Support as a medium of exchange, we may be able to use Plan goals we want* to avoid Plan goals we don't want.** That'd be nice.

*(Say, "expand the community college system for the new refugees so they can get technical training")
**(Say, "stack up another literal trillion cans of beans in the food stockpiles instead of concentrating on improving average food quality, then make surprised Pikachu faces when the Milk and Honey movement hulks out during the 2064 elections and starts smashing things because we were busy doing that with all our Agriculture dice.")
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1) Sure but that doesn't mean we should do it now. We are unlikely to do any mad science before reallocation anyway

2)Or we can take them on as plan goals thus reducing the number of plan goals we're less sure about

3 Maybe but I'm not sure that anything they give us as a goal now will not be a plan goal less than a year from now
 
MightbeaMimic said:
1) Sure but that doesn't mean we should do it now. We are unlikely to do any mad science before reallocation anyway
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Well see, that's the question. Will we get a better Political-Support-for-goals deal doing Interdepartmental Favors now, or some time in Q2?

2)Or we can take them on as plan goals thus reducing the number of plan goals we're less sure about
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That doesn't make any sense.

One of the big things we have to do at the start of every Plan is select from lists for big choices. Like "will you make 50, 70, or 90 Capital Goods" and "will you make 15, 25, or 35 Stored Food." We don't actually get to choose whether to have those Plan targets, but if we have PS to spend, we can get the targets lowered to something more reasonable. This makes it desirable to go into reapportionment with PS to spend, preferably quite a bit of it because some of those options are expensive (-10, 15, or -20 PS). If we can get some of that PS by agreeing to complete a project we'd normally desire to do anyway, I'm for it.

Separately and independently, we are expected to convince a majority of the legislature to vote for our Plan. This often requires us to take acceptably high goals on the "which number are you hitting" votes, but it also requires us to agree to build certain specific lists of projects. However, there is no PS award for doing this; it's just a straightforward case where you make promises in exchange for votes in a singular one-off event.

The value of PS now is that we can trade projects for PS, which we won't be able to do in the formal reapportionment vote unless we get lucky.

3 Maybe but I'm not sure that anything they give us as a goal now will not be a plan goal less than a year from now
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One of the big problems we had with this Four Year Plan was the poor alignment between what the military needed in order to win Steel Vanguard (a good stress-test of the military's actual quality) and what Parliament told us to do back in 2058 (which consisted mainly of about 1200 points of OSRCT and the consumable factories). The consumables and OSRCT certainly helped, don't get me wrong... but we had a massive amount of military stuff that wasn't on that list. Parliament didn't even consider naval and Air Force objectives as something they needed to ask of us, for instance, and yet we would up finding that those were in many ways the worst-off branches of our military.

I don't see any reason to assume that the goals that get us votes in Parliament will be the same goals we'd need to pursue anyway for policy reasons.
 
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Ithillid said:
[ ] Predictive Modeling Management (New)
While Artificial Intelligence is far from a panacea, it is a significant way to adjust overall strategic modeling, and make development significantly more predictable. While it will not eliminate the possibility of things going horrifically wrong, it will improve overall outcomes.
(-10 Capital Goods) (Changes dice to 2d50)
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In preparation for the dice changeover in the future, I've generated the following experimental 2d50 Probability Array, where each 'die' rolls 2d50 dice. You can use the recent (normal d100) array update for comparison. Please note that I've only double-checked a few project's probabilities, and there may be errors. I also haven't completely fixed up the formatting. And here's an anydice program to roll for projects with 2d50 dice. It should be accurate, I think.

Lastly, I want to again thank @HousePet for his assistance on the spreadsheet rework, as that made it about 100 times easier to make this.
NOTICE: Experimental 2d50 Probability Array
This notice is to inform you that this is an experimental 2d50 array, and exists only for comparison with the normal array here. It is not intended for actual use. Please note that you have been notified by this notification notice.
Infrastructure 5 dice +32
-[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 4) 1/600 6 dice 90R 4%, 7 dice 105R 48%, 8 dice 120R 92%
-[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 4+5) 1/1200 13 dice 195R 8%, 14 dice 210R 39%, 15 dice 225R 78%
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6) 220/300 1 die 20R 80%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] Yellow Zone Fortress Towns (Phase 6+7) 220/600 4 dice 80R 22%, 5 dice 100R 86%, 6 dice 120R 100%
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 8) 15/160 2 dice 20R 89%, 3 dice 30R 100%
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 8+9) 15/320 3 dice 30R 13%, 4 dice 40R 85%, 5 dice 50R 100%
-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 8+9+10) 15/480 5 dice 50R 23%, 6 dice 60R 83%, 7 dice 70R 99%
-[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 5) 39/325 3 dice 45R 28%, 4 dice 60R 93%
-[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 5+6) 39/650 6 dice 90R 3%, 7 dice 105R 40%, 8 dice 120R 88%, 9 dice 135R 99%
-[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 5+6+7) 39/975 10 dice 150R 8%, 11 dice 165R 46%, 12 dice 180R 86%, 13 dice 195R 98%
-[] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 2) 22/250 2 dice 50R 5%, 3 dice 75R 84%, 4 dice 100R 100%
-[] Suborbital Shuttle Service (Phase 2+3) 22/450 4 dice 100R 2%, 5 dice 125R 52%, 6 dice 150R 96%

-[] Chicago Planned City (Phase 4) 3/550 6 dice 120R 15%, 7 dice 140R 70%, 8 dice 160R 97%
-[] Chicago Planned City (Phase 4) w/1 HI die 3/553 6 dice 120R 23%, 7 dice 140R 80%, 8 dice 160R 99%
-[] Karachi Planned City (Phase 1) 0/65 1 die 20R 98%
-[] Karachi Planned City (Phase 1+2) 0/195 2 dice 40R 51%, 3 dice 60R 100%
-[] Karachi Planned City (Phase 1+2+3) 0/455 4 dice 80R 3%, 5 dice 100R 59%, 6 dice 120R 98%
-[] Karachi Planned City (Phase 1+2+3) w/6 Infra dice 0/497 5 dice 100R 25%, 6 dice 120R 88%, 7 dice 140R 100%
-[] Karachi Planned City (Phase 1+2+3+4) 0/975 10 dice 200R 18%, 11 dice 220R 67%, 12 dice 240R 96%
-[] Karachi Planned City (Phase 1+2+3+4) w/6 Infra dice 0/1017 10 dice 200R 6%, 11 dice 220R 43%, 12 dice 240R 87%, 13 dice 260R 99%
-[] Karachi Planned City (Phase 1+2+3+4+5) 0/2015

-[] Tokyo Harbor Reconstruction 4 0/120 1 die 15R 16%, 2 dice 30R 99%
-[] Tokyo Harbor Reconstruction 5 0/60 1 die 15R 97%
-[] Emergency Caloric Reclamation Processor Installations Phase 1 0/80 1 die 15R 80%, 2 dice 30R 100%
-[] Emergency Caloric Reclamation Processor Installations Phase 1+2 0/160 2 dice 20R 76%, 3 dice 30R 100%
Heavy Industry 5 dice +29
-[] Advanced Alloys Development 0/120 1 die 15R 19%, 2 dice 30R 99%
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 9) 128/300 2 dice 40R 55%, 3 dice 60R 99%
-[] Continuous Cycle Fusion Plants (Phase 9+10) 128/600 5 dice 100R 11%, 6 dice 120R 68%, 7 dice 140R 97%
-[] Improved Continuous Cycle Fusion Development 0/120 1 die 120R 19%, 2 dice 240R 99%
-[] North Boston Chip Fabricator (Phase 5) 36/2400
-[] Nuuk Heavy Robotics Foundry (Phase 4) 143/1200 12 dice 240R 13%, 13 dice 260R 49%, 14 dice 280R 85%, 15 dice 300R 98%
-[] Suzuka Prototype Hover Chassis Factory 0/175 2 dice 40R 51%, 3 dice 60R 99%
-[] Crystal Beam Industrial Laser Deployment 433/600 2 dice 40R 61%, 3 dice 60R 100%
-[] Low Velocity Particle Applicator Development 0/120 1 die 20R 19%, 2 dice 40R 99%
-[] Personal Electric Vehicle Plants 0/300 3 dice 30R 11%, 4 dice 40R 80%, 5 dice 50R 100%
-[] Microfusion Cell Development 0/60 1 die 20R 98%
-[] Division of Alternative Energy -1 HI die -10R Auto
-[] Distributed Heavy Industrial Authority -1 HI die -30R Auto
Light and Chemical Industry 4 dice +24
-[] Reykjavik Myomer Macrospinner (Phase 5) 50/1280 14 dice 280R 2%, 15 dice 300R 13%
-[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 3) 0/380 4 dice 120R 6%, 5 dice 150R 59%, 6 dice 180R 96%
-[] Bergen Superconductor Foundry (Phase 3+4) 0/1140 13 dice 390R 2%, 14 dice 420R 17%, 15 dice 450R 50%
-[] Civilian Drone Factories 292/380 1 die 10R 55%, 2 dice 20R 100%
-[] Civilian Ultralight Factories 0/190 2 dice 30R 21%, 3 dice 45R 92%
-[] Carbon Nanotube Foundry Expansions 0/300 3 dice 60R 5%, 4 dice 80R 65%, 5 dice 100R 98%
-[] Artificial Wood Development 0/60 1 die 10R 96%
-[] Department of Distributed Manufactures -1 L&CL die -20R Auto
Agriculture 4 dice +24
-[] Agriculture Mechanization Projects (Phase 2) 26/250 2 dice 30R 2%, 3 dice 45R 68%, 4 dice 60R 99%
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 5) 18/140 1 die 10R 7%, 2 dice 20R 93%
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 5+6) 18/280 3 dice 30R 28%, 4 dice 40R 90%
-[] Blue Zone Aquaponics Bays (Phase 5+6+7?) 18/420 4 dice 40R 2%, 5 dice 50R 40%, 6 dice 60R 90%, 7 dice 70R 100%
-[] Vertical Farming Projects (Stage 2) 65/240 2 dice 30R 38%, 3 dice 45R 97%
-[] Vertical Farming Projects (Stage 2+3?) 65/480 5 dice 75R 30%, 6 dice 90R 84%, 7 dice 105R 99%
-[] Ranching Domes 228/250 1 die 20R 100%
-[] Spider Cotton Plantations (Phase 1) 0/170 2 dice 30R 44%, 3 dice 45R 98%
-[] Spider Cotton Plantations (Phase 1+2) 0/350 4 dice 60R 20%, 5 dice 75R 81%, 6 dice 90R 99%
-[] Spider Cotton Plantations (Phase 1+2+3) 0/540 6 dice 90R 7%, 7 dice 105R 50%, 8 dice 120R 90%
-[] Wadmalaw Kudzu Plantations (Phase 3) 56/450 4 dice 40R 3%, 5 dice 50R 47%, 6 dice 60R 92%
-[] Tarberry Development 0/40 1 die 20R 100%
-[] Poulticeplant Development 0/50 1 die 20R 100%
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 3) 128/175 1 die 10R 99%
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 3+4) 128/375 3 dice 30R 43%, 4 dice 40R 95%
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 3+4+5) 128/575 5 dice 50R 11%, 6 dice 60R 64%, 7 dice 70R 96%
-[] Strategic Food Stockpile Construction (Phase 3+4+5+6) 128/775 7 dice 70R 2%, 8 dice 80R 29%, 9 dice 90R 76%, 10 dice 100R 97%
-[] Caloric Reclamation Processor (Phase 1) 0/80 1 die 10R 69%, 2 dice 20R 100%
-[] Caloric Reclamation Processor (Phase 1+2) 0/160 2 dice 20R 57%, 3 dice 30R 99%
Tiberium 7 dice +39
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2) 5/195 2 dice 40R 57%, 3 dice 60R 100%
-[] Tiberium Vein Mines (Stage 2+3?) 5/385 4 dice 80R 46%, 5 dice 100R 97%
-[] Yellow Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Phase 11) 0/350 3 dice 60R 3%, 4 dice 80R 73%, 5 dice 100R 100%
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7) 78/100 1 die 15R 100%
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7+8) 78/200 1 die 15R 22%, 2 dice 30R 100%
-[] Intensification of Green Zone Harvesting (Stage 7+8+9) 78/300 2 dice 30R 19%, 3 dice 45R 96%

-[] Red Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Stage 12) 29/150 1 die 25R 24%, 2 dice 50R 100%
-[] Red Zone Tiberium Harvesting (Stage 12+13) 29/300 3 dice 75R 66%, 4 dice 100R 100%
-[] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1) 0/250 2 dice 50R 3%, 3 dice 75R 84%, 4 dice 100R 100%
-[] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1+2) 0/500 5 dice 125R 23%, 6 dice 150R 86%, 7 dice 175R 100%
-[] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1+2+3) 0/750 7 dice 175R 3%, 8 dice 200R 40%, 9 dice 225R 89%, 10 dice 250R 100%
-[] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1+2+3+4) 0/1000 10 dice 250R 10%, 11 dice 275R 53%, 12 dice 300R 91%
-[] Red Zone Border Offensives (Stage 1+2+3+4+5) 0/1250 12 dice 300R 1%, 13 dice 325R 19%, 14 dice 350R 63%, 15 dice 375R 93%
-[] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 6) 54/225 2 dice 50R 79%, 3 dice 75R 100%
-[] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 6+7) 54/450 4 dice 100R 31%, 5 dice 125R 94%
-[] Red Zone Containment Lines (Stage 6+7+8) 54/675 6 dice 150R 10%, 7 dice 175R 67%, 8 dice 200R 98%
-[] Tiberium Glacier Mining (Stage 13) 38/205 2 dice 60R 83%, 3 dice 90R 100%
-[] Tiberium Glacier Mining (Stage 13+14) 38/410 4 dice 120R 53%, 5 dice 150R 98%

-[] Tiberium Processing Plants (Stage 2) 20/200 2 dice 60R 70%, 3 dice 90R 100%
-[] Tiberium Processing Refits (Phase 5) 6/100 1 die 20R 70%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (Blue Zones) 0/100 1 die 30R 60%, 2 dice 60R 100%
-[] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (Yellow Zones) 0/130 1 die 30R 13%, 2 dice 60R 99%
-[] Tiberium Inhibitor Deployment (Red Zones) 0/120 1 die 30R 25%, 2 dice 60R 100%
-[] Improved Tiberium Containment Facilities Construction 0/120 1 die 20R 25%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1) 41/140 1 die 20R 62%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] Liquid Tiberium Power Cell Deployment (Phase 1+2) 41/280 2 dice 40R 7%, 3 dice 60R 90%

-[] Enhanced Harvest Tiberium Spikes 0/180 2 dice 40R 80%, 3 dice 60R 100%
-[] Visceroid Research Programs 0/120 1 die 15R 33%, 2 dice 30R 100%
-[] Improved Hewlett Gardener Process Development 0/160 2 dice 40R 94%
-[] Tiberium Harvesting Claw Deployment 0/380 4 dice 60R 46%, 5 dice 75R 97%
Orbital 6 dice +26
-[] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1) 0/80 1 die 20R 79%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1+2) 0/245 3 dice 60R 68%, 4 dice 80R 99%
-[] GDSS Columbia (Phase 1+2+3) 0/580 6 dice 120R 7%, 7 dice 140R 57%, 8 dice 160R 94%
-[] GDSS Enterprise (Phase 5) 997/1535 6 dice 120R 27%, 7 dice 140R 83%, 8 dice 160R 99%
--GDSS Enterprise Bays (1 available)--
-[] Military Bay 0/450 5 dice 100R 14%, 6 dice 120R 71%, 7 dice 140R 97%
-[] Advanced Materials Bay 0/400 4 dice 80R 3%, 5 dice 100R 50%, 6 dice 120R 94%
-[] Station Bay 0/400 4 dice 80R 3%, 5 dice 100R 50%, 6 dice 120R 94%
-[] Gravitic Shipyard 0/450 5 dice 100R 14%, 6 dice 120R 71%, 7 dice 140R 97%
-[] Fusion Shipyard 0/500 5 dice 100R 1%, 6 dice 120R 33%, 7 dice 140R 84%, 8 dice 160R 99%

-[] GDSS Shala - Same as GDSS Columbia.
-[] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11) 32/85 1 die 10R 98%
-[] Orbital Cleanup (Stage 11+12) 32/170 2 dice 20R 86%, 3 dice 30R 100%
-[] Conestoga Class Development 0/60 1 die 30R 97%
-[] Leopard II Factory 0/350 4 dice 80R 26%, 5 dice 100R 86%, 6 dice 120R 100%

-[] Outer System Survey Probes 0/190 2 dice 30R 25%, 3 dice 45R 94%

-[] Lunar Rare Metals Harvesting (Phase 1) 56/115 1 die 20R 95%
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 3) 57/295 3 dice 60R 59%, 4 dice 80R 98%
-[] Lunar Regolith Harvesting (Phase 3+4) 57/580 6 dice 120R 18%, 7 dice 140R 72%, 8 dice 160R 97%
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4) 25/350 3 dice 60R 1%, 4 dice 80R 49%, 5 dice 100R 95%
-[] Lunar Heavy Metals Mines (Phase 4+5) 25/690 7 dice 140R 2%, 8 dice 160R 28%, 9 dice 180R 76%, 10 dice 200R 97%
-[] Lunar Water Mine (Inactive)
-[] Helium 3 Harvesting (Inactive)
Services 5 dice +27
-[] Advanced Electronic Video Assistant Deployment 0/200 2 dice 40R 17%, 3 dice 60R 92%
-[] Human Genetic Engineering Programs 0/120 1 die 25R 16%, 2 dice 50R 99%
-[] Hallucinogen Development 0/60 1 die 15R 97%
-[] NOD Research Initiatives 87/200 1 die 30R 25%, 2 dice 60R 99%
-[] Regional Hospital Expansions (Phase 1) 0/300 3 dice 75R 8%, 4 dice 100R 75%, 5 dice 125R 99%
-[] Regional Hospital Expansions (Phase 1+2) 0/600 7 dice 175R 24%, 8 dice 200R 75%, 9 dice 225R 97%
-[] Ocular Implant Development 0/120 1 die 20R 16%, 2 dice 40R 99%
Military 8 dice +26
-[] Advanced ECCM Development 0/40 1 die 20R 100%
-[] ASAT Defense System (Phase 4) 36/220 2 dice 40R 44%, 3 dice 60R 99%
-[] ASAT Defense System (Phase 4+5) 36/715 7 dice 140R 5%, 8 dice 160R 45%, 9 dice 180R 89%, 10 dice 200R 99%
-[] Stealth Disruptor Development 0/40 1 die 15R 100%
-[] Inferno Gel Development 0/40 1 die 10R 100%
-[] Binary Propellant Exploration 0/60 1 die 10R 97%
-[] Military Particle Beam Development 0/100 1 die 20R 45%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] Ferro Aluminum Armor Refits 0/350 4 dice 20R 26%, 5 dice 25R 86%, 6 dice 30R 100%
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 1) 0/275 3 dice 60R 21%, 4 dice 80R 88%, 5 dice 100R 100%
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 1+2) 0/600 7 dice 140R 20%, 8 dice 160R 71%, 9 dice 180R 96%
-[] Strategic Area Defense Networks (Phase 1+2+3) 0/975 11 dice 220R 5%, 12 dice 240R 31%, 13 dice 260R 71%, 14 dice 280R 94%

--MARVs--
-[] Reclamator Hub 0/335 4 dice 80R 39%, 5 dice 100R 92%
-[] Reclamator Hub w/ 2 Mil + X-2 Tib Dice 0/361 3 dice 60R 2%, 4 dice 80R 64%, 5 dice 100R 99%
-[] Reclamator Hub w/ 1 Mil 1 Admin + X-2 Tib Dice 0/387 4 dice 80R 39%, 5 dice 100R 96%
-[] Reclamator Hub w/ 2 Admin + X-2 Tib Dice 0/413 4 dice 80R 18%, 5 dice 100R 87%, 6 dice 120R 100%
-[] Reclamator Hub x2 0/670 7 dice 140R 2%, 8 dice 160R 25%, 9 dice 180R 73%, 10 dice 200R 96%
-[] Reclamator Hub w/ 2 Mil + X-2 Tib Dice 0/696 7 dice 140R 18%, 8 dice 160R 75%, 9 dice 180R 98%
-[] Reclamator Hub BZ-1 (Roschino) 39/335 3 dice 60R 8%, 4 dice 80R 75%, 5 dice 100R 99%
-[] Reclamator Hub BZ-2 (Richmond) 58/335 3 dice 60R 20%, 4 dice 80R 87%, 5 dice 100R 100%
-[] Reclamator Hub BZ-2 w/ 2 Mil + X-2 Tib Dice 58/361 3 dice 60R 31%, 4 dice 80R 96%

--Zone Operations Command--
-[] Infantry Recon Support Drone Development 0/40 1 die 10R 100%
-[] Backpack Rocket Launcher Development 0/50 1 die 10R 100%
-[] Zone Lancer Development 0/40 1 die 15R 100%
-[] Zrbite Sonic Weapons Development 0/60 1 die 20R 97%

--Air Force--
-[] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 1) 0/275 3 dice 60R 21%, 4 dice 80R 88%, 5 dice 100R 100%
-[] Orca Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 1+2) 0/550 6 dice 120R 7%, 7 dice 140R 53%, 8 dice 160R 92%
-[] Hammerhead Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 1) 0/200 2 dice 40R 15%, 3 dice 60R 90%
-[] Hammerhead Wingmen Drone Deployment (Phase 1+2) 0/400 4 dice 80R 3%, 5 dice 100R 50%, 6 dice 120R 94%
-[] Apollo Fighter Factories 0/80 1 die 15R 72%, 2 dice 30R 100%
-[] Ultralight Glide Munitions Development 0/40 1 die 10R 100%

--Space Force--
-[] OSRCT Station (Phase 3) 5/295 3 dice 60R 21%, 4 dice 80R 90%
-[] OSRCT Station (Phase 3+4) 5/690 7 dice 140R 4%, 8 dice 160R 41%, 9 dice 180R 87%, 10 dice 200R 99%
-[] Orbital Defense Laser Satellite Deployment 0/240 3 dice 60R 57%, 4 dice 80R 98%
-[] Orbital Nuclear Caches 0/175 2 dice 40R 56%, 3 dice 60R 99%
-[] Tactical Ion Cannon Network (Phase 1) 0/275 3 dice 60R 21%, 4 dice 80R 88%, 5 dice 100R 100%

--Ground Forces--
-[] Universal Rocket Launch System Deployment (Phase 3) 133/200 1 die 15R 88%, 2 dice 30R 100%
-[] Railgun Munitions Factories (Phase 1) 0/200 2 dice 20R 15%, 3 dice 30R 90%
-[] Railgun Munitions Factories (Phase 1+2) 0/400 4 dice 40R 3%, 5 dice 50R 50%, 6 dice 60R 94%
-[] Railgun Munitions Factories (Phase 1+2+3) 0/600 7 dice 70R 20%, 8 dice 80R 71%, 9 dice 90R 96%
-[] Railgun Munitions Factories (Phase 1+2+3+4) 0/800 9 dice 90R 7%, 10 dice 100R 41%, 11 dice 110R 82%, 12 dice 120R 98%
-[] Guardian Mark 2 Development 0/40 1 die 10R 100%
-[] Armadillo HAPC Development 0/40 1 die 10R 100%
-[] Mammoth Block Four Development 0/40 1 die 10R 100%
-[] MBT-7 Paladin Development 0/40 1 die 15R 100%
-[] Ground Forces Zone Armor (Set 1) 0/190 2 dice 40R 25%, 3 dice 60R 94%
-[] GD-3 Rifle Development 0/30 1 die 10R 100%
-[] Hallucinogen Countermeasures Deployment 0/120 1 die 25R 10%, 2 dice 50R 96%

--Navy--
-[] Infernium Laser Refits 0/450 5 dice 150R 14%, 6 dice 180R 71%, 7 dice 210R 97%
-[] Escort Carrier Shipyards (Newark) 179/240 1 die 20R 93%
-[] Governor A Development 0/40 1 die 15R 100%
-[] Island Class Assault Ships 0/40 1 die 20R 100%
-[] Victory Class Monitor Development 0/40 1 die 20R 100%
-[] Shark Class Frigate Shipyards (Seattle) 0/300 3 dice 60R 7%, 4 dice 80R 71%, 5 dice 100R 99%

--Steel Talons--
-[] Mastodon Heavy Assault Walker Deployment 144/225 1 die 10R 70%, 2 dice 20R 100%
-[] Medium Tactical Plasma Weapon Deployment 0/80 1 die 30R 72%, 2 dice 60R 100%
-[] Light Combat Laser Development 0/40 1 die 25R 100%
-[] Heavy Combat Laser Development 0/40 1 die 20R 100%
-[] Modular Rapid Assembly System Prototypes 0/125 1 die 20R 10%, 2 dice 40R 97%
-[] Buckler Shield Development 0/100 1 die 20R 45%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] Unmanned Support Ground Vehicle Development 0/80 1 die 20R 79%, 2 dice 40R 100%
-[] Sparkle Shield Module 0/120 1 die 30R 15%, 2 dice 60R 98%
Bureaucracy 4 dice +24
-[] Administrative Assistance 2 die auto (+1 free die this turn with no bonuses.)
-[] Security Reviews DC50 0/50 1 die 98%, 2 dice 100%
-[] Make Political Promises 1 die auto
-[] Interdepartmental Favors 1 die auto
-[] Banking Reforms 1 die -100R auto
-[] Long Term Systematic Planning Organization 1 die -2 free dice auto
-[] Predictive Modeling Management 1 die auto
 
Uh, I feel guilty saying this though I know I shouldn't- but the line for North Boston is missing. And for Karachi Phase 5, I think.

EDIT:

-[] Blue Zone Arcologies (Stage 4+5) 1/1200
FROM
13 dice 195R 14%, 14 dice 210R 40%, 15 dice 225R 68%
TO
13 dice 195R 8%, 14 dice 210R 39%, 15 dice 225R 78%


-[] Rail Network Construction Campaigns (Phase 5) 39/325
FROM
3 dice 45R 33%, 4 dice 60R 84%, 5 dice 75R 99%
TO
3 dice 45R 28%, 4 dice 60R 93%, (5 dice >99%)

-[] Blue Zone Apartment Complexes (Phase 8) 15/160
FROM
1 die 10R 3%, 2 dice 20R 79%, 3 dice 30R 99%
TO
(1 dice no), 2 dice 20R 89%, 3 dice 30R 100%

So the big thing we're seeing here is a decreased "swinginess." Whatever the mean number of dice allocated to a project is, the probability of the project succeeding with less than that number of dice becomes incrementally less, but the probability of succeeding with exactly or more dice than that increases. We lose some chance of good luck finishing a project early, but we gain a corresponding amount of insulation against bad luck causing accursed rolls.

Thus, for instance, each of the three projects we're looking at has a reduced or nonexistent chance of finishing with the minimum theoretically possible number of dice that could have finished it before. But all three projects have an increased chance of completion when allotted the number of dice it would take to get them to a 50% or higher chance of completion before the change. The arcologies, railroads, and apartments are less likely to finish early on 13, 3, and 1 dice respectively, but more likely to finish on 15, 4, and 2 dice, making it less likely that we will be forced to spend 16, 5, or 3 dice to get the desired result.

We're also seeing the effect of, on average, a +0.5 bonus to each die roll, because the mean value of a 2d50 roll is 51 instead of 50.5. However, this effect is subtle.

The biggest effect of this is on projects that are very close to completion. The risk of something like the freeze-drying plants happening under the 2d50 system is greatly reduced; one in a hundred levels of bad luck become one in ten thousand levels of bad luck.

Of course, we're also seeing less GOOD luck, and I for one will be interested to see how Ithillid handles critical successes and failures under this system.
 
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Simon_Jester said:
Uh, I feel guilty saying this though I know I shouldn't- but the line for North Boston is missing.
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Oh, that's completely deliberate. The spreadsheet only calculates out to 15 dice. Anything that goes beyond that I just do "by hand" with Anydice, and for this 'experimental' sheet I just didn't bother with any projects that do so, North Boston included.

I could update the spreadsheet to handle more dice, but it'd be a bit of a pain to do so, and given how few projects go over 15 dice I don't really feel like it's worth doing, at least not anytime soon. (Plus North Boston goes over 30 dice, anyways.)

-[OLD] North Boston Chip Fabricator (Phase 5) 36/2400 26 dice 390R 3%, 27 dice 405R 9%, 28 dice 420R 21%, 29 dice 435R 39%, 30 dice 450R 59%, 31 dice 465R 76%, 32 dice 480R 88%, 33 dice 495R 95%
-[NEW] North Boston Chip Fabricator (Phase 5) 36/2400 27 dice 405R 4%, 28 dice 420R 16%, 29 dice 435R 40%, 30 dice 450R 68%, 31 dice 465R 88%, 32 dice 480R 97%
 
Ah. Sorry about that, didn't know that detail.

Anyway, this repeats the pattern I've already noted: probability of completion on "too few" dice is reduced, but probability of noncompletion on "enough" dice is also reduced, so projects are much less likely to fail to complete if you've given them enough dice that they SHOULD complete.
 
Simon_Jester said:
Ah. Sorry about that, didn't know that detail.
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Ah yeah, there are a few limitations on the current automation. If no dice amount calculated gives a chance of success between 1% and 90%*, it won't output anything. Although there is a special case for catching the 1 die giving >90% chance of completion.
*It is then told to give the probability for 1 more die, which is why there are now more 100% chance amounts listed. Sometimes a bit superfluous, but some of those small project swing quickly from ~20% to 100% in one die, and just saying "1 die 20%" would look quite weird. XD

The calculations cap out at 15 dice, and while it might be worth stretching that to 20 dice, that won't help with North Boston 5. It is huge. Might need to write an alternative system for huge projects. Maybe just something for calculating the median dice needed would do?
Although if we are going to get an alternative system for megaprojects, then upping the calcs to 20 dice doesn't really make sense, as we will never be likely to throw 10+ dice at a project in one turn anyway.


As far as the 1d100->2d50 change goes. It basically only increases reliability for the small projects (~200 completion or less). The bigger projects are already rolling so many dice that they are fairly consistent in how many dice are needed.
Useful in many situations, but doesn't really improve our productivity. Something for when we are in (relative) post-scarcity Capitol Goods.
 
HousePet said:
*It is then told to give the probability for 1 more die, which is why there are now more 100% chance amounts listed. Sometimes a bit superfluous, but some of those small project swing quickly from ~20% to 100% in one die, and just saying "1 die 20%" would look quite weird. XD
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No, that's a genuinely good thing. Sometimes it's important for us to know that yes, there is effectively no way for the project to fail with two more dice, even though one dice has low chances by itself.

The calculations cap out at 15 dice, and while it might be worth stretching that to 20 dice, that won't help with North Boston 5. It is huge. Might need to write an alternative system for huge projects. Maybe just something for calculating the median dice needed would do?
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That's probably how I'd do it if I had your skill set. Start from the median, which can be easily calculated. Work up until you have a 99% (or rounding to 100%) chance of success, and work down from the median until you hit either one die, or a number so low that the chance of success is less than one percent.

Although if we are going to get an alternative system for megaprojects, then upping the calcs to 20 dice doesn't really make sense, as we will never be likely to throw 10+ dice at a project in one turn anyway.
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Being able to estimate how many dice a project would take to do 'the hard way' is still useful, not least because under some circumstances we genuinely might want to prioritize speed. I don't think @Ithillid was planning to remove the possibility of crash spending on megaprojects like the stabilizer, just to make more gradual spending more efficient.

As far as the 1d100->2d50 change goes. It basically only increases reliability for the small projects (~200 completion or less). The bigger projects are already rolling so many dice that they are fairly consistent in how many dice are needed.
Useful in many situations, but doesn't really improve our productivity. Something for when we are in (relative) post-scarcity Capitol Goods.
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It doesn't radically improve productivity, but it does insulate us against random failures of a project to activate when enough dice are invested, which can be a problem for us in some situations (e.g. now).

With that said, yeah, I can think of better uses for 10 Capital Goods right now, such as "five Zone Armor factories" or "ten phases of vein mining."
 
A though and a question.

This probably doesn't change anything about the cost of the project or much else on our end, but once crystal lasers complete and Anadyr done, I wonder if that would change part of Boston. Like say, dedicating some of the new construction to laser based isolinear chip production, partly to speed their introduction along, and to work on scaling up production.

This I think has come up before, but is it better finish Boston first, and possibly get a bonus to building new AEVAs, or is it better to make an AEVA for Heavy Industry to complete Boston faser?
 
At the moment I think AEVAs are completely off the table.

If they dramatically improve, then maybe early next plan when we don't have the resources for dice activation but I still don't see us going for them.

Edit: Yeah, losing a dice in the category till its done, 20r per dice, 6 capital and 3 energy.

Not in the cards.
 
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Nottheunmaker said:
This I think has come up before, but is it better finish Boston first, and possibly get a bonus to building new AEVAs, or is it better to make an AEVA for Heavy Industry to complete Boston faster?
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Hm.

The current median die to finish Boston is ~30 dice. If we had the HI AEVA, that would drop to ~29 dice, so one die saved. Not really worth it. Especially with the -6 Cap Goods cost of each AEVA. Which is three times that of even the most expensive Cap Goods cost aside from the Long Term Planning and Predictive Modeling Bureaucracy options.

As for the Capstone bonus of Boston, we don't know much about it aside that it may/will help AI research (Erewhon, AEVA's, Predictive Modeling, etc.). So it may increase the bonus provided by AEVA's or it may not. We also don't know what completing Anadyr will get us aside from probably Erewhon life boosts.

Now while AEVA's as a whole are the single most expensive Cap Goods project we have. AEVA's as a group cost the same as all of the currently available projects using Cap Goods combined (6*9=54 Cap Goods for AEVAs = 2 (Electric Vehicles) + 1 (Agri Mech) + 1 (Vein Mines) + 2 (Harvesting Claws) + 2 (Shipyard Bays) + 2 (Hospitals) + 3 (Wingmen) + 6 (GFZA Set 1) + 5 (Naval Shipyards) + 20 + (Long Term Planning) + 10 (Predictive Modeling) = 54. I think there is a place for them in our goals. However, it is probably going to have to wait for both Boston and at least Nuuk 4 to complete, as +64 Cap Goods is the sort of surplus we need to free-ish-ly spend it on either AEVAs or Long Term Planning/Predictive Modeling.
 
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Nottheunmaker said:
A though and a question.

This probably doesn't change anything about the cost of the project or much else on our end, but once crystal lasers complete and Anadyr done, I wonder if that would change part of Boston. Like say, dedicating some of the new construction to laser based isolinear chip production, partly to speed their introduction along, and to work on scaling up production.
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I don't think North Boston will be turned into a site for isolinear chip production because that's so different from what they specialize in- mass production of conventional-ish microchips.

I think the project may get cheaper and simpler, though, with the crystal beam laser. I think Particle Applicator might also help, since it's explicitly a tech for applying thin layers of arbitrary materials down onto a substrate. I've read enough papers on material science and nanotechnology that I can see improvements in that technology leading to improvements in the efficiency or productivity of a chip fabricator.

This I think has come up before, but is it better finish Boston first, and possibly get a bonus to building new AEVAs, or is it better to make an AEVA for Heavy Industry to complete Boston faser?
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The problem is that even for a single project as big as North Boston Phase 5, an AEVA doesn't pay for itself. It's +3 per die, which multiplied by thirty dice, would save us... The equivalent of one die, maybe two on North Boston's overall construction.

The trick with AEVAs is that they DO pay off in the very long term, if you have enough projects and you have the Capital Goods. We've never really been in that position. Because you need those +3 points per die to add up for quite a long time. They will eventually, but it takes a while.

(For example, if we'd been able to get the Orbital AEVA option in 2058Q1, then over the course of the Four Year Plan it'd have saved us something close to 250 or so Progress on Orbital projects- which is enough that we might well see it starting to pay for itself. But that's a long term proposition.)
 
As I understand it North Boston phase 5 was the gateway to next gen computer systems before GDI figured out Isolinear computing.

My guess is that now they will probably work/target to fill the gap between; ie produce chips better than normal 5mm silicon but not as expensive as isolinear. My guess is you will be able to get more out of the isolinear computers too if the rest of the electronics around it are higher end so there is that potential too. (I think that was one of the issues limiting how good the isolinear computers were right, having to interface with the rest of our electronics tech)

On the other tiberium tendril we may now get Tech projects related to isolinear control system for an expensive top down approach vs a bottom up approach.
 
I think North Boston 5, and succeeeding computer techs, are still going to be very, very useful for mass-market electronics for the coming decades.

While isolinear still has a way to go: laboratory->government super computers->science->military->industry->first adopters->government->civilian mass market->ubiquitous consumer goods. (With the government maybe moving up a few steps considering how much more influence it has).
 
Also, isolinear chips seem to be pretty temperamental, so I'm not sure the military will ever be big fans of using them except for a handful of applications like shipboard ECCM systems or decryption.
 
I'd hesitate to go that far. These are still very, very early models. Given a couple of generations, and I wouldn't be surprised to find that we have significantly more reliable and robust chips.
 
Simon_Jester said:
Also, isolinear chips seem to be pretty temperamental, so I'm not sure the military will ever be big fans of using them except for a handful of applications like shipboard ECCM systems or decryption.
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They may be temperamental for now, but saying that military won't ever be big fans of them is, I feel, like saying in the 70's otl that military won't ever use integrated circuits computers broadly because of how expensive and temperamental they are. In otl it took about 20 years to make this statement utterly obsolete, with tiberium making our development cycles a lot faster, I think we will see wide spread use of isolinear chips after about 2 FYP, aka 8 years.
 
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tenchifew said:
They may be temperamental for now, but saying that military won't ever be big fans of them is, I feel, like saying in the 70's otl that military won't ever use integrated circuits computers broadly because of how expensive and temperamental they are. In otl it took about 20 years to make this statement utterly obsolete, with tiberium making our development cycles a lot faster, I think we will see wide spread use of isolinear chips after about 2 FYP, aka 8 years.
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OTL? I'm not familiar with what that acronym is for. Would you care to elaborate?
 
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