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Arch-Demon's Eternal Game: Aeon Edition, The Turtle Chronicles

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hailcapital said:
Your proof is the claim that Fiends, which got 8 picks, somehow picked up no coins?

My pick was 11th. After my pick basically the only items in the bag worth a damn were a staff and 3 coins.

Also, even if he is telling the truth here, it wouldn't be proof, because if you don't have any coins, how are you sure that any of your douses have been landing where you think they are? A big part of my theory has been that my heal on Nictis had to be switched with Scia, who coincidentally also had an attack on them tonight.
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The thing here is, Zaealix and Scia were our earlier targets. So you want to tell me someone switched Scia with Nictis not only once but in fact twice? When there are only two coins left?
And somehow my "theory" sounds untrustworthy
 
Tykan said:
The thing here is, Zaealix and Scia were our earlier targets. So you want to tell me someone switched Scia with Nictis not only once but in fact twice? When there are only two coins left?
And somehow my "theory" sounds untrustworthy
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You just accidentally admitted your team has two firestarters. I don't think you wanted to do that.
 
Actually, sorry, you did it earlier when you said that you doused and ignited Nictis in one night. Maybe you did, idk.
 
hailcapital said:
Actually, sorry, you did it earlier when you said that you doused and ignited Nictis in one night. Maybe you did, idk.
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Sorry, we have to continue this discussion later, I'm heading off to sleep.

So, last post for now. I have shown you a way where you have pretty good odds to win, even better than us. The other way has your team trying to fight two Knights with only one Strongmankill left. You are outed (you can deny this but I don't have a reason to lie here). You have a nightkill against you tonight. I don't think your odds are that great.
Sorry to kinda coerce you into this. Desperate times, desperate measures.

Byzantine can't win by sticking to town if we cooperate. I die today, makes it 7. 4 townies, 3 scum. We kill 2 townies, the next day is 2 townies (Byz included) and 3 scum.
 
hailcapital said:
Okay, let's do another possible run through of last nights events, assuming 1) Zaealix is town, 2) Byzantine is survivor and has been honest, and 4) I am not lying about putting my heal on Nictis. (Yes, I am aware that from your perspective I could be scum and lying. I will consider that possibility in yet another post, which will probably be tomorrow or during the next day phase.

For the reasons I stated last time, Zaealix must have been switched with Scum1 by someone on Scumteam2, which Scum1 does not belong to. Scum1 would then have been healed, either by someone on their scumteam or by town who thinks that Scum1 is not scum. Since I am not scum, and we already have two switches, whoever healed me must have targeted me, therefore Tykan didn't heal me. So the heal that landed on Zaealix must have been Tykan's.

So the only remaining possibility is that Scum1 is either Tykan or Tykan's teammate, who was healed by Tykan but Scumteam2 switched Scum1 with Zaealix. We can actually probably further narrow it down, because Tykan was so plainly going to be the lynch today that I don't think his scumteam would have wanted to waste the heal on him. So in this hypothetical Tykan healed his teammate, which is almost certainly Mesonoxian, but Scumteam2 switched Zaealix and Mesonoxian.

But this doesn't really make any sense either. What reason would Scumteam2 have for switching Zaealix and Mesonoxian? The primary use of a Coin here would be to ensure protection or detection measures were not implied to whoever their intended target was. But BOTH Zaealix and Mesonoxian would be prime targets for defensive measures, Zaealix by any town staffholder or by any town watcher, and Meso by his teammate Tykan. The Tykan/Meso team (according to Tykan, Fiends) was pretty clearly out at EoD yesterday, so Scumteam2 would have known this.
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I wasn't swapped, healed, or attacked last night. Nothing happened at all, beyond getting my tracking results, which were very uninformative. (@Happerry didn't go anywhere.)

And you're being pretty casual with the accusations for someone who is proven scum.
 
I used my one time tracking power on Eagle Mask, to be clear, I didn't watch him last night.
 
From what I can tell, Happerry claimed a roleblock, which matches pretty well with what I saw.
 
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Alright, so I think Hail is being loud as an intentional distraction. It sounds like he and Tykan are from seperate teams, to boot. I'm willing to wager that Hail is the Demon that Splattered an Elf earlier, using up his Strongman. So the other Demon holds the Strongman.
If we can vote-lynch that Demon it's Game for Scum.
 
Zaealix said:
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Alright, so I think Hail is being loud as an intentional distraction. It sounds like he and Tykan are from seperate teams, to boot. I'm willing to wager that Hail is the Demon that Splattered an Elf earlier, using up his Strongman. So the other Demon holds the Strongman.
If we can vote-lynch that Demon it's Game for Scum.
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Probably the case. Also probably difficult to figure out the who of who is the other demon.
 
Zaealix said:
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Alright, so I think Hail is being loud as an intentional distraction. It sounds like he and Tykan are from seperate teams, to boot. I'm willing to wager that Hail is the Demon that Splattered an Elf earlier, using up his Strongman. So the other Demon holds the Strongman.
If we can vote-lynch that Demon it's Game for Scum.
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My best guess for that role is @Wiadi . @Happerry didn't do anything last night, but @hailcapital still survived being targeted for a nightkill. Either he self-healed and lied about it or he was healed by an ally, and given that self heals only work once, the latter seems more likely. I suspects the reason we haven't seen a dead demon is them holding a couple of staves and mutually healing each other each night. I know I'm not teamed with hail and it is pretty clear Tykan isn't.

Zaealix is almost certainly a true Knight. Byzantine is very likely a survivor of some kind. I really think @Scia is the second Knight. No one has counterclaimed.

That really only leaves Wiadi and Happerry and of the two, Wiadi just seems to make more sense.
 
mesonoxian said:
I wasn't swapped
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Reminder that Coin is quiet.
mesonoxian said:
Either he self-healed and lied about it or he was healed by an ally, and given that self heals only work once, the latter seems more likely.
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Or he...lied about being targeted at all? Or had a Talisman of Defense. Or got Coined into the slot of someone else who got attacked and healed. Or got healed by a Townie who mistakenly thought he was innocent.
mesonoxian said:
I really think @Scia is the second Knight. No one has counterclaimed.
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We've already discussed why this isn't good evidence, especially if we don't assume you're Town (which nobody but you has reason to do).
 
Wiadi said:
Reminder that Coin is quiet.


Or he...lied about being targeted at all? Or had a Talisman of Defense. Or got Coined into the slot of someone else who got attacked and healed. Or got healed by a Townie who mistakenly thought he was innocent.


We've already discussed why this isn't good evidence, especially if we don't assume you're Town (which nobody but you has reason to do).
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True about the coin. Let me say rather than I have no reason to believe I swapped, because no detectable nightactions came my way.

He could be lying, but Tykan called him out on the lie about healing Nictis, so I suspect he'd have called him out if he weren't actually attacked as well. That suggests that he was the actual target. A Townie might have healed him, but no one has coroborated that yet, and it would be trivially easy to do and would massively help town!hail stay alive, so I don't think that is the case.

As for the value of the evidence, I just disagree.
 
Scia said:
It might be a Knight that got hit, which I think puts them in a dicy position? I am not sure how the flavors are handled so they might be outed by that or not. The lack of cold steel would mean that the kill was aimed at the knight itself and not at the person that the knight was protecting.
Which at worst might mean that the demons know someone that is a knight if I understand the system right?
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Scia said:
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I am not quite following your logic there?
A knight would have to be stupid to reveal themself if they where not attacked and survived while not bodyguarding.
Because we know that there was no bodyguarding kill it either means that there was no bodyguarding or the attacker got healed.
I mean I might also missread things because my second , and second to last game before the aborted version of this had gained something from mech debates and extrapolates .
But then it also seems like archdemon games are incentiving people to hold back more because of the two scum teams?
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These are the posts that make me suspect Scia of being the second Knight. There are so many ways that the Demon nightkill could fail, Dwarves, Talismans of Defense, Staffs of Life, Mystic Cage, etc. Going directly to a Knight, clearly having thought about the possible answers, and pretty blatantly asking "hey, do scum know who I am now" leave it pretty unambiguous, once you know we have a Knight unaccounted for.
 
mesonoxian said:
He could be lying, but Tykan called him out on the lie about healing Nictis, so I suspect he'd have called him out if he weren't actually attacked as well. That suggests that he was the actual target. A Townie might have healed him, but no one has coroborated that yet, and it would be trivially easy to do and would massively help town!hail stay alive, so I don't think that is the case.
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Possibilities: Tykan is actually on hail's scumteam and this is elaborate theater. Tykan is not on hail's scumteam but is interested in sowing chaos more than in getting hail suspected as Scum, especially since more evidence does not appear necessary to convince most people of this fact. A Townie healed hail but subsequently realized that he's Scum and so declined to share the information.

Actually, for that matter, how would a Townie claiming to have healed hail be a good idea even if hail is Town? Given that, again, he's not the one on the block today and keeping a Staff's location concealed for tonight is good for Town.
mesonoxian said:
These are the posts that make me suspect Scia of being the second Knight. There are so many ways that the Demon nightkill could fail, Dwarves, Talismans of Defense, Staffs of Life, Mystic Cage, etc. Going directly to a Knight, clearly having thought about the possible answers, and pretty blatantly asking "hey, do scum know who I am now" leave it pretty unambiguous, once you know we have a Knight unaccounted for.
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Again, my argument is not "this could not possibly be a Knight softclaim," but rather "this is not such strong evidence of a softclaim that it could not be walked back." Meaning that a Knight counterclaim wouldn't actually expose Scia as definitively Scum, whereas it would provide Scum with the identity of the second Knight, so it's actively good that no counterclaim has yet emerged even if Scia isn't really a Knight (and if Scia is really a Knight then it's good that she hasn't hardclaimed it).
 
Wiadi said:
Or he...lied about being targeted at all? Or had a Talisman of Defense. Or got Coined into the slot of someone else who got attacked and healed. Or got healed by a Townie who mistakenly thought he was innocent.
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I can confirm that hail was targeted by us. Since he claimed to have been attacked and healed, nobody healed him unintentionally.

@hailcapital, do you take the offer or not? Would be nice to get an answer soon.

Btw for now...
[X] Null
 
Wiadi said:
Possibilities: Tykan is actually on hail's scumteam and this is elaborate theater. Tykan is not on hail's scumteam but is interested in sowing chaos more than in getting hail suspected as Scum, especially since more evidence does not appear necessary to convince most people of this fact. A Townie healed hail but subsequently realized that he's Scum and so declined to share the information.

Actually, for that matter, how would a Townie claiming to have healed hail be a good idea even if hail is Town? Given that, again, he's not the one on the block today and keeping a Staff's location concealed for tonight is good for Town.


Again, my argument is not "this could not possibly be a Knight softclaim," but rather "this is not such strong evidence of a softclaim that it could not be walked back." Meaning that a Knight counterclaim wouldn't actually expose Scia as definitively Scum, whereas it would provide Scum with the identity of the second Knight, so it's actively good that no counterclaim has yet emerged even if Scia isn't really a Knight (and if Scia is really a Knight then it's good that she hasn't hardclaimed it).
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I'd like to know who everybody is because at this point, I feel like we're almost certainly at a significant disadvantage. I hate to say it, but Tykan's offer could actually work. Scum+Byzantine outnumber us. If we know exactly who is who, we can isolate the scum and we can keep ourselves alive overnight. Scum have so many more tools than any townie does. I have no doubt they have a clearer idea that any of us do. Pooling our information and acting like a team is the only way we can be sure we're keeping our voters safe.

Like imagine I am entirely wrong, you're the last Knight and Scia is on Tykan or hail's team. That means that you are probably not going to get protected, your visits are more likely to be mistaken for attacks, and if we were choosing between you and Scia right now, I'd be voting for you. Any of those mistakes could cost us the game. If Scia is scum, she already knoiws it and whichever of her team mates already knows it. They have also probably been watching, or item copping, or just observing who they attacked. I have no doubt they've figured out who is who. But town is still in the dark. I'd hate to come this close and lose because we won't share information going into the home stretch.

But I accept that everyone else disagrees with me. Frankly that makes me more sure I am right about the scum's knowledge. If they were ignorant, I'd expect them to all be finding justifications to agree with me. I'm pretty sure nobody is going to change their mind at this point anyway.
 
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