These statements are contradictory. The first is saying that the Probability Array is that answer, the second is saying it isn't.

The whole point of what I have been saying is that the Probability Array isn't, on its own, an answer to the problem of "how many dice should we assign to a project". It's a tool to decide how to achieve a certain level of likelihood of success, and no more. If you don't use it because it doesn't provide a complete answer, that's your perogative, but you should be aware that you are expecting more of it than it was built to provide.

o_O 👇

I don't assume that things exist. I'm just saying that Derpmind's probability array is a solution to a problem that for me is ill-defined. I'm not simply looking for the answer to the question of how many dice do we need to complete this action. Why do you have a problem with this?

I literally said that the reason I don't use the Probability Array is because it isn't intended to be that answer so I'm not sure how you got the impression that I said the opposite. Could you elaborate on that?

I'm not looking at the probability array for my answers or expecting it to give them to me. I know fully well what it does and my posts have been about explaining why it doesn't work for me.

Also this entire reply chain started with me saying that I will try to do the probability array instead of Derpmind if she isn't there to do it because I understand the value it brings to other posters.
 
I'm not looking at the probability array for my answers or expecting it to give them to me. I know fully well what it does and my posts have been about explaining why it doesn't work for me.

And yet, as heated conversations often do, the focus has drifted somewhat.

Would you permit me an amateur psychoanalysis tomorrow?
 
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[X] Orbital Support
[X] Fusion Development Centre
[X] Healthcare Planning Board
[X] Arcology Development Planning Board
[X] Forgotten Outreach

Honestly as much as I would like to do Forgotten Outreach it is just too risky by my consideration. Nod is likely already gunning for him as our successor, I can not in good conscience put him at such risk. Not that he will likely be put in such a position.
 
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And yet, as heated conversations often do, the focus has drifted somewhat.

Would you permit me an amateur psychoanalysis tomorrow?

Of me and my arguments/posts?.....Sure. Just remember to ask the other posters' for permits if you analyze them as well.
 
And yet, as heated conversations often do, the focus has drifted somewhat.

Would you permit me an amateur psychoanalysis tomorrow?
Of me and my arguments/posts?.....Sure. Just remember to ask the other posters' for permits if you analyze them as well.
The point where you're psychoanalyzing someone through the very limited medium of online forum posts is the point where you've gone completely off-topic. Please take this to PMs, if you must continue it at all.
 
[X] Orbital Support
[X] Military Appropriations Planning Board
[X] Logistical Integration and Development Office
 
InOps Flash Report: Possible Nod Redeployment of Ion Disruption Tech (canon)
InOps Flash Report: Possible Nod Redeployment of Ion Disruption Tech

At 1340 hours UST today Handler █████ received an encoded priority hyperburst transmission from Asset ████. Contents of the message indicate that Nod has been restarting development and deployment of their ion field disruption tech last employed during TW3. The partial upload of schematics included in the data transmission indicate Nod has made strides in improving the technology, with the primary aim being refinement of the power source to allow for mobile deployment, incorporation of alien ion storm control technology and better integration with Nod stealth technology. Asset considered partial copy of schematic to be sufficient reason to warrant burning one of their hidden micro-transmitters.

Recommend stepping up search efforts to look for Nod research efforts and if possible interdict them. If Nod efforts make sufficient progress could potentially threaten strategic and tactical effectiveness of ion cannon network—possibly compromise effectiveness of ASAT system should they miniaturise enough for deployment on ballistic missiles. EDIT made on 07/09/20██: (Science Division Addenum: Not viable given current known ion disruptor working principles, unless Nod makes a quantum leap in their understanding of the technology or employs completely different principles for a vacuum-effective variant, which would effectively be a completely different tech)



Ion Disruption Tech – Primer

First deployed during the middle stages of TW3, ion disruption technology was first seen in GDI assaults on high value strategic Nod facilities such as the Sarajevo Temple Prime facility. Only a relative handful of examples were ever deployed, and GDI attempts to procure an intact field generator for reverse-engineering were unsuccessful due to Nod counter-efforts. However, we are able to glean the core working principles from seeing the technology in operation.

At its core, ion disruption technology appears to utilize principles also linked to the generation and formation of ion storms, ion disruption field tech aims to generate a protective field of atmospheric interference that disrupts ionization and create a counter-barrier of charged particles intended to prematurely neutralize, deflect, and disperse the stream of ionized particles, attenuating and neutralizing the energies of the ion cannon blast.

TW3 era models appear to function by maintaining a protective field at all times, which creates an immense power strain and limited their deployment to immobile structures and the largest, most important facilities. However, intelligence reports suggest Nod has restarted development on a new variant that incorporates several refinements; apart from incorporating general refinements and streamling and advances derived from alien technology, post-TW3 models appear to be 'smart' variants, running in a low power passive state most of the time and only switching to an active state when the preliminary stages of an ion cannon firing sequence are detected.
 
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Just loft some kinetic strike satellites into orbit. Lasers are too dependent on weather for ground strikes.
We already have kinetic impactors, but they're really rather limited. Not only do they need to be lofted into orbit, but they don't do much more damage than a firehawk strike-though they do have a bigger AOE due to the inherent inaccuracy of such weapons requiring more saturation of them.
 
We already have kinetic impactors, but they're really rather limited. Not only do they need to be lofted into orbit, but they don't do much more damage than a firehawk strike-though they do have a bigger AOE due to the inherent inaccuracy of such weapons requiring more saturation of them.

Isn't a 9ton rod basically the equivalent of a MOAB in terms of yield? Unless a Firehawk's payloads is measured in tons of TNT it feels like kinetic impactors should be a bigger deal.
 
Isn't a 9ton rod basically the equivalent of a MOAB in terms of yield? Unless a Firehawk's payloads is measured in tons of TNT it feels like kinetic impactors should be a bigger deal.
A "Firehawk strike" heavily implies a flight-level or squadron-level air attack dropping multiple munitions from each of multiple planes.

Against most probable targets, dropping several one-ton bombs from several different planes is more effective, or at least not less effective, than dropping a single giant unitary ten-ton bomb.

Thus "your MOAB-equivalent kinetic impactor isn't actually much more damaging to the target than a Firehawk strike."
 
Right now the ASAT network runs on ion cannons. There's options to start changing that but it's ion based right now, we need to do the orbital lasers research and get ASAT up to 4 or 5 to start playing with different methods.
 
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