With Touch the Cow, Thunder Plateau having a roll of 50 + 1d100, the probability of per-year success is 80% (de facto required roll is 21+ to reach 70+), with an expected duration of 6.25 years.

...

1619 Initial Results Snapshot of frequently-changed stats (1619 Start)

Base Influence: 5 Influence, 2 Authority


Naval Status (Yllython Mor): 8 (Poor)
Naval Status (Saffron Sea): 2 (Anemic)
Naval Status (Salt Sea): 4 (Weak)
Naval Status (Monsoon Sea): 6 (Poor)
(Combined Yllython+Saffron Naval: 10 [Average])
Total Naval Score: 20

Professional Army Formations:
Iron Flower Banner Company (Pike & Shot [crossbow]) - Deployed to Western Wall Front
Heaven's Hawk Banner Company (Heavy Cavalry) - Deployed to Western Wall Front

Western Wall Front: 800,000 men, Both Banner Companies, & Dragon General Dafydd.
Reserve: 200,000 Men


Treasury Status: 4.3/10
Income: +.3

Expensive Actions subtract 1 from treasury status, Profitable actions add 1 to it. Very is x2, Extremely is x3, Ruinously/Insanely is x4.
Income adds itself to the Treasury Status every 5 years.


Provinces and Loyalty

Core: Rock Solid
Memory of Spirits: Rock Solid
Txolla: Unshakable
Hathytta: Decently Loyal
Western Wall: In Rebellion
Greenshore: Solid
Tinshore: Rock Solid
Thunder Plateau: Retaken, Transitioning to Civilian Control, Grateful

Client States:

Tin Tribes

-



Opinions of you:

Khemetri: 4/10 [C] R
Magyar: 7/10
Ealam: 7/10
Vynta: 6/10
Ruma: 5/10
Pamplona: 8/10
Abyss: 5/10
Hung: 8/10 [C]
Rexum Germanum: 5/10
-Hasum 4/10
-Behryvar 4/10
-Ochrur ?/10
Tarta: 5/10
Styrmyr: 5/10
Amber Road: 10/10 [C], 2/5 [A]
Norsca: 4/10
Berba: 5/10
Hellas: 3/10 [C] R
Pulska: 3/5



Melkut Ymaryn: 60

Additional Stats (1619 Initial Results)
Prestige:: 60
Authority: 0
Influence: 2 (+1 pending)
Estimated Stress (unknown start point): 12.9
Other Notables: None
Revaunchists Appeasement: Mass Levy

Num Profitable Markets: 3 (2 without Probable -Amber Road Opinion)
Num Semi-Profitable Markets [Estimated Treasury]: 4 [1.875]
(These estimates are probably out of date. see 1613 Start for latest updates)

Next Guild Income Within: 1620
Treasury: 4.3 (+0.3 mid-1620,1625... ; +1 mid-1620,1622,...; -1 mid-year from Mass Levy)
Loans Taken: 4
Unoccupied Banner Companies: Both on Western Wall front
(-1.7 income on completion of Train Thunder Plateau Administrators)

Action [Investment]: Scheduled Investment Return Year (Estimated Return Year)
Touch The Cow, Thunder Plateau [1 Authority]: 1624 (1625)
Spreading the Warding, Amber Road [1 Influence]: 1620
Train Thunder Plateau Administrators, Elective [1 Influence]: 1624 (1626)


Revaunchists ("Peacock") Weakenings: 5 + (1 "gravely") - 1
  1. Tin Tribes Independence
  2. White Peace with Hellas
  3. Amber Road Independence
  4. Refrain from conquering Stymyr to mountains
  5. Strengthening: Blame Western Wall
  6. "Gravely weakened": Khemetri Concession
  7. Leave the Highlanders
3 weakenings likely reduces "antsy": no more half-measures -> reduced half-measure roll weights

Sacred Warding Notes: Can provide to three polities (Source) [Currently 1/3]

All dates are tentative estimates; they can change in response to circumstances (e.g. failures, crits). +/-1 in [year] means that an extra +/-1 will be available for us during Turn [year]. I believe that income is added during the Initial Results part of a year, though the exact ordering within that stage is unclear.
 
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Can we stop characterizing WW as evil beings? It seems rather dehumanizing. They made their [bad]choices, and now they have to live with it.
Though there are forms of government or society that institutionalize and perpetuate evil choices, I agree with your sentiment here, Kiba. I agree with calling specific actions evil, but calling an entire group full of many different people evil is too far for me.

[X] Reject
 
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[X] Reject (War Continues)

Western Wall leadership is trying to enrich their descendants by dragging the true Ymaryn into their feud. Reject this farce, and settle this conflict as a trustworthy mediator. Only through that route can there be lasting peace.

Concerning Amber Road: it's nice that they look up to us, but hopefully they don't outright adopt Personal Stewards of Nature, as they have wide steppes of largely indefensible land.

Then again, it's probably more like Pamplona's dispassionate administration.

@Aranfan: were there any narrative benefits from Plays and Theological Debates, or did that theory not pan out?
 
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Do not disinherit the children of the traitor nobles.
Recognize the lands they have conquered as integral parts of Western Wall.
Do not remove the Ymaryn Settlers, and support them in their disputes with the local Rus.
When you inquire about what sorts of disputes the settlers are having with the local Rus, the negotiators relay that the Rus are "Liars, murderers, and despoilers of the land".

The Shadow King, on the other hand, tells you that a typical dispute was the time a Ymaryn settler went missing and the community in question started killing Rus in retaliation for his murder, which spiraled into quite a lot of violence. The man who disappeared reappeared a year later, having gone into seclusion to commune with nature. The governor judged that the Rus were in the wrong.

When someone disappears to commune was responded by murdering the locals, and still blaming them when said indavidual came back...
That bodes ill for what the disagreements are gonna be.

[X] Reject (War Continues)
 
Do you mind if I ask why you want to agree to these terms @Briefvoice ?

Because it will end the war and allow the million men army to return home when war weariness has already overcome the population.

Do not remove the Ymaryn Settlers, and support them in their disputes with the local Rus.

"Support them" is frankly a very... variable promise. Such things can always be finessed in the aftermath.

End the war and break the fucking promise. Finesse it, come up with some justification for why it's not really breaking the promise, but break the fucking promise. This is a world without newspapers and frankly I think the nobles are going to give vastly more shit that we let their children keep titles than that we left some settlers hanging. Hits to the reputation will be something that can be endured.

End the war and break the promise.

Is that clear enough?

EDIT: Lie, lie, lie! Lie about supporting the settlers! Lies are a tool of statecraft too.
 
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[X] Reject (War Continues)

Western Wall's nobles swallowed a great deal of poison into their souls when they capitulated to the Khan, and it has taken root in them, as evidenced by this preposterous 'peace' offering.

Sometimes, the only cure is to amputate.
 
"Support them" is frankly a very... variable promise. Such things can always be finessed in the aftermath.

End the war and break the fucking promise. Finesse it, come up with some justification for why it's not really breaking the promise, but break the fucking promise. This is a world without newspapers and frankly I think the nobles are going to give vastly more shit that we let their children keep titles than that we left some settlers hanging. Hits to the reputation will be something that can be endured.

End the war and break the promise.

Is that clear enough?

EDIT: Lie, lie, lie! Lie about supporting the settlers! Lies are a tool of statecraft too,
And thus they will revolt during demobilization, potentially convincing other nobles to do likewise because we backstabbed their fellow nobles...
We would be playing with fire here and I am wary about just how this could go wrong...
 
And thus they will revolt during demobilization, potentially convincing other nobles to do likewise because we backstabbed their fellow nobles...
We would be playing with fire here and I am wary about just how this could go wrong...

Remember how happy the population was that we took the Black Sheep deal and how mad they might have been if we had refused what seemed to them to be a perfectly reasonable peace offer?

Look, maybe we have different visions of this. To me "support the settlers" is a years long thing that we could slowly back away from and by the time the nobles realize we've screwed the settlers the armies will be long demobilized. It's the vaguest of the terms (who gets to decide if we're really supporting the settlers) and the one that frankly I think the people we're negotiating with will care about the least. By definition, settlers are people at the periphery of power.

It just seems painfully naive to me to think that we can absolutely never get away with breaking a promise or two. Rulers get away with that shit all the time, and often it works out fine for them.

Here, I'll ask.

@Aranfan at the end of the day, a promise is just a promise, right? How actually bad or not bad might be the blowback on promising to "support the settlers" and then doing a lot of foot-dragging and only "technically supportive" actions for two or three years until we're confident enough to break the promise outright?
 
Look, maybe we have different visions of this. To me "support the settlers" is a years long thing that we could slowly back away from and by the time the nobles realize we've screwed the settlers the armies will be long demobilized. It's the vaguest of the terms (who gets to decide if we're really supporting the settlers) and the one that frankly I think the people we're negotiating with will care about the least. By definition, settlers are people at the periphery of power.
...We may have to worry about the Rus murdering the local Ymaryn, considering murdering the Rus for a crime they did not even commit is apperantly an example of a typical dispute...
I don't think we would exactly be able to slowly back away from the dumpster fire that is local relations here.
 
I'd prefer to avoid lying where possible, to cultivate our trust both internal and external.

With the entire Mass Levy + Dragon General bearing down on them, and Western Wall insolvent, there's not much necessity to pull a fast one.

Ideally, we'd issue a proclamation of why we're not accepting the peace terms (it would help to gain the Rus' trust). Then again, spread of information is limited in this era as Briefvoice says, so it might not help regardless.
 
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@Aranfan at the end of the day, a promise is just a promise, right? How actually bad or not bad might be the blowback on promising to "support the settlers" and then doing a lot of foot-dragging and only "technically supportive" actions for two or three years until we're confident enough to break the promise outright?

So the deal also involves letting the families of the traitor nobles keep their wealth and influence. So... it's not like there won't be powerful individuals seeking to make sure you stick to the terms.
 
Sorry WW to the hell with your demands.

[X] Reject (War Continues)

All the nobles and their descendants who participated in their atrocities should be shoveling shit.
 
[X] Reject (War Continues)

We will forgive their children, we will accept the land they have settled and turned to Ymaryn soil...

but we will not, NOT, be dictated to as to what justice is. Justice is not for sale. Guilt is determined by actions and truth, not armies and deals.

At least, not while Ymaryn stands at the head of one million men to make it so.

I am quite pleased with this peace action though. For a single action we have ensured that the war paused while we lined up a crushing advantage on the field without any additional casualties fighting a war with equal numbers.

We will just have to add... More democracy rather than letting the fools who killed our last king walk free.
 
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So the deal also involves letting the families of the traitor nobles keep their wealth and influence. So... it's not like there won't be powerful individuals seeking to make sure you stick to the terms.

Sure. But of course, more years of war will also cause enormous loss of life and economic damage, right? I know it's the thread's decision so you can't say which one is the right, but if they think we're screwing over the settlers that seems to me more like a "lost influence" effect than a "restart the fires of rebellion and call for the people to fight and die for a bunch of settlers on the frontier" situation.

Am I reading that wrong? The rest of the thread seems to take it as a no-brainer that potentially years of war will cause less damage than some angry nobles who feel that some of the peace terms weren't adhered to properly. Am I missing something here?
 
We will just have to add... More democracy rather than letting the fools who killed our last king walk free.

Last king? I think you mean that Hathatyn guy who got assassinated?

Sure. But of course, more years of war will also cause enormous loss of life and economic damage, right? I know it's the thread's decision so you can't say which one is the right, but if they think we're screwing over the settlers that seems to me more like a "lost influence" effect than a "restart the fires of rebellion and call for the people to fight and die for a bunch of settlers on the frontier" situation.

Am I reading that wrong? The rest of the thread seems to take it as a no-brainer that potentially years of war will cause less damage than some angry nobles who feel that some of the peace terms weren't adhered to properly. Am I missing something here?

Years of war? Discipline literally collapsed in their levy.

Meanwhile, you have the weight of almost a million men weighing down on what's left of the WW's army, which is 300K or less, the greatest hero that ever lived, and an additional 20K men from the banner companies.

Quite literally, the WW are outnumbered, blockaded, outmorale, and outlogisted.

Meanwhile, a lot of these settlers quite possibly screwed the local Rus.
 
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Am I reading that wrong? The rest of the thread seems to take it as a no-brainer that potentially years of war will cause less damage than some angry nobles who feel that some of the peace terms weren't adhered to properly. Am I missing something here?
The some nobles have some influence due to being nobles, and I am also worried about revolts from the locals leading to massive Ymaryn deaths...
The Shadow King, on the other hand, tells you that a typical dispute was the time a Ymaryn settler went missing and the community in question started killing Rus in retaliation for his murder, which spiraled into quite a lot of violence. The man who disappeared reappeared a year later, having gone into seclusion to commune with nature. The governor judged that the Rus were in the wrong.
YEAH. I don't think they have much, if any friends over in the new territories, and unfortunately, in a way that is probably really bad for us if we accept this peace deal.
 
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