@Oshha wants a free lunch, so here is a plan for a mostly-free lunch.
We don't know which upgraded diplo system will eventually be chosen, so for this post I'm assuming it's similar to the
idea I proposed earlier. This speculative long-term plan serves, a bit, as an unofficial playtest of that kind of system. Such a playtest involves maaaaany assumptions on my part, all of which need to be approved by
@Aranfan, even assuming the system is okay.
As such, this plan should not be considered anywhere near final, though thoughts/opinions are still appreciated.
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Favor-Trading
Diplomacy naturally involves favor give-and-take, but favors can arise in unexpected ways, including from prior "defeats". The first step is to call in a favor for the 1617 Khemetri Interrupt and humiliation. The TLDR of the favor (very diplomatically worded):
"Some of our people were angry at what you did. Our people can make life inconvenient when angry. Give us this gesture of goodwill and we can make this problem go away."
Or, in more personal terms: "You wronged us a bit, but do us this small favor and we'll call it even"
(Technically the Khem could've asked for something similar during their interrupt--due to the famine humiliation--but because the interrupt was a matter of Prestige, and because we preemptively offered them the 1608 Trade Deal before they asked for anything, they probably didn't.)
In the mutually face-saving language of the diplomats:
"The Khemetri, no doubt, remember the acknowledgement of superiority granted by the Ymaryn during the 1617 declaration. And, to be clear, the Ymaryn are not going back on that declaration in any way. There has, however, been an unpleasant development since then, as an unexpected side-effect of those events. It is a small tragedy for the both of our peoples' that, due to the unfortunate circumstances around that time period, a small portion of Ymaryn society has come to see the Khemetri's reasonable demand as, perhaps, somewhat less-than-friendly. While of course preposterous, it is also true that this opinion could begin to take root in more important Ymaryn circles, to unknown, but unideal consequences. We believe, however, that we have found a solution to this conundrum, to both our nations' mutual benefit. This ambassador humbly requests that, if the Khemetri would publicly deign to [FAVOR], it could be used as an olive branch to satisfy the more restless elements of the Ymaryn population, to marginalize the few radicals who remain unreasonable. Through this, our nations can move forward toward a brighter future of friendlier relations, forgetting once and for all this unpleasant misunderstanding."
That dialogue is way too much for a plan, so I'd shorten it to:
[] Call in favor for 1617 Khemetri Interrupt (Narrative%, expires 1628, costs same as underlying action)
- Write in diplomatic action
[Hypothetically, the Khemetri could also make a counteroffer, refuse and ask us to choose another, or refuse and cancel the favor--mainly if we request something outrageous.]
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Mutually Beneficial Trade Deal
As for what such a favored action might be... there may be others, but this plan goes with the known quantity of Trade Deal. Inspired by the Ally Level 2 Perk, Favorable Trade Deals [on both ends]:
[] Diplo (1 Influence): Mutual Reduction of Tariffs (+1 Khemetri Opinion, +0.0 income, must be taken with favor)
This amounts to a Negotiate Trade Deal that doesn't cost income (I'm guessing it would more like +0.05 income on both sides, but I'm not sure how to handle that kind of proportion; so we can say we're at a stage where the indirect positive effects aren't so high.) We'd still get the same narrative effects of Khem traders/beneficiaries becoming more dependent on Ymaryn markets, and the resulting +Opinion.
Narratively: In public (for the aforementioned public olive branch), the Khemetri diplomat gives a big speech about feeling the plight of the Ymaryn people and congratulations on the recent unification, suggests as a concrete gesture of goodwill a reduction of tariffs to assist the Ymaryn economy in its peacetime transition. The Ymaryn accepts, and agrees to match that reduction so that "both we and our ancient peers and friends may benefit from favorable trade".
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The Plan
- Use the 1617 favor on the Mutual Reduction of Tariffs (Khemetri Opinion increases to 5)
- If this gives us access to Cholera Cure/Sacred Warding, skip to next step. Otherwise, use normal Disadvantageous Trade deals until we regain access (this is the non-free part of the plan)
- Give the Khem Cholera Cure and Sacred Warding (preferably with Authority to show we're serious, but with Influence if necessary)
This can then be flipped into a "Mutual Reduction of Tariffs (2x Strength)" (+2 Khemetri Opinion)
(@fasquardon: every step of this plan brings us closer to the customs union you were suggesting with Khemetri.)
At this point, Khemetri has at least 8 Opinion (and, narratively, a lot of our trade goes through each other, making conflict inconvenient). We can meet with the leadership in private and speak frankly about the Prestige issue, and how to deal with it in the long term. Ideally, we would come up with an informal deal with the following terms:
- The Ymaryn will try their best to incorporate Khemetri into their Prestige-gaining operations (possibly including sending joint Sacred Warding missions, after training).
In addition to giving them a seat at the Prestige table, this is to give as much time as possible to prepare.
- The above being done in good faith, if and when the Ymaryn do nevertheless pass the Khem in prestige, the Khem will not contest them.
- The Khemetri will prepare for such a day by changing their public strategy to rely less on "having the highest Prestige" and more on "being joint peers with our Allies of highest Prestige".
(Technically, we would too, but since our people aren't so big on Prestige, there's less to prepare for)
This means increasing to Ally Level 2 (mutually beneficial trade deals), since that's what we've been building up to anyway. Income increase would probably take place at this point, the multiple reduction of tariffs being rationalized into a comprehensive agreement.
With this deal, an alliance is formed and a Great Powers War avoided. Other unanticipated opportunities may allow us to speed things up, but this plan idea was mainly built around the known quantities of trade deals and medical cures.
Plans of fewer assumptions can probably be made, if the stringent requirement of "free" is relaxed.