Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)
- Location
- Southampton, Great Britain
- Pronouns
- He/Him
We went for Styrmyr first because all the other options were worst. Styrmyr being distracted by another war was just us being hopeful about the least bad situation.
- Location
- Australia
Oh look, an opinion that we should further expand our borders and become greater assholes. Never seen one of those before and I'm sure it's never caused us or will cause us major problems down the line.
I would be perfectly fine with Tin Tribing the Strmyr as well.
Moratorium is over.
[X] Counter any military thrusts, but do not conquer beyond the traditional Greenshore borders. (Militarily harder, Revaunchists weakened.)
Reasons as previously given.
The distraction of integrating Stymyr, in particular, we can't afford when we have to war with the Black Sheep within a few years, so the course is clear regardless. It's ironically the short (or medium, if that's how you count it) term considerations that dominate here, to make conquest a non-option.
Edit: more on this on the next page. If the Tin Tribes would cause us to death spiral, and the not!Slavic Western Wall tribes would screw us over, then the entire Stymyr, at a time when we have to fight two other wars...
[X] Counter any military thrusts, but do not conquer beyond the traditional Greenshore borders. (Militarily harder, Revaunchists weakened.)
Reasons as previously given.
It's not expansion for the sake of it, but because Greenshore's borders are indefensible. Either way leads to problems: status quo (indefensibility in event of future attacks, present military difficulties) and conquest (distraction in integrating disloyal populace, loss of internal+external trust, strengthened revaunchists, assholish behavior).
The distraction of integrating Stymyr, in particular, we can't afford when we have to war with the Black Sheep within a few years, so the course is clear regardless. It's ironically the short (or medium, if that's how you count it) term considerations that dominate here, to make conquest a non-option.
Edit: more on this on the next page. If the Tin Tribes would cause us to death spiral, and the not!Slavic Western Wall tribes would screw us over, then the entire Stymyr, at a time when we have to fight two other wars...
Yes.
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- Location
- Australia
[X] Counter any military thrusts, but do not conquer beyond the traditional Greenshore borders. (Militarily harder, Revaunchists weakened.)
It never is, allegedly.
- Location
- New York
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Counter any military thrusts, but do not conquer beyond the traditional Greenshore borders. (Militarily harder, Revaunchists weakened.)
@Aranfan: Are the Germanians only strapped for cash based on the dice roll (i.e. if the roll succeeds next turn, does that mean they will have the cash)?
Edit: also, is the possibility of a Stymyr city levy now ruled out. as it was presumably based on Greenshore's admin infrastructure?
Edit: also, is the possibility of a Stymyr city levy now ruled out. as it was presumably based on Greenshore's admin infrastructure?
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- Location
- US
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[X] Counter any military thrusts, but do not conquer beyond the traditional Greenshore borders. (Militarily harder, Revaunchists weakened.)
Time for us to do a Roman and use our troops to build us some mighty forts!
I don't think so. They still have a degraded Ymaryn bureaucracy.
I don't think so. They still have a degraded Ymaryn bureaucracy.
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Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
They would have had enough cash if you had not failed the roll. If they will have enough cash next turn? You don't know enough to say.
Chimeraguard
We do deserve to exist.
[X] Counter any military thrusts, but do not conquer beyond the traditional Greenshore borders. (Militarily harder, Revaunchists weakened.)
[X] Counter any military thrusts, but do not conquer beyond the traditional Greenshore borders. (Militarily harder, Revaunchists weakened.)
1608 Initial Results Snapshot of frequently-changed stats (1608 Start)
Additional Stats (1608 Initial Results)
Authority: 1
Influence: 5 (+1 in 1610)
Estimated Stress (unknown start point): 4.6
Other Notables: None
Revaunchists Appeasement: Liberation of Greenshore
Txollan Concerns Met: Establish Trade Enclaves, Hung (expires in 1611); Sacred Warding, Hung (expires in 1615)
Num Profitable Markets: 3 (2 without Probable -Amber Road Opinion) ???
Num Semi-Profitable Markets [Estimated Treasury]: 4 [2.5] ???
Next Guild Income Within: 1610
Treasury: 5.8 (-0.8 within 1610, 1615,... ; +1 within 1610, 1612,...)
Unoccupied Banner Companies: None
Action [Investment]: Scheduled Investment Return Year (Estimated Return Year)
Sacred Warding, Hung [1 Authority]: 1615
Establish Trade Enclaves, Hung [1 Influence]: 1611
Revaunchists Weakenings: 3 (+1 Pending)
Revaunchists Notes: (This was before the Stymyr war) "Revaunchists are antsy, and displeased by the hits they have been taking. Half Measures are more likely to fail to appease them, but enough of them probably will." (Source)
Note: expect +1 Revaunchist weakening this midturn
All dates are tentative estimates; they can change in response to circumstances (e.g. failures, crits). +/-1 in [year] means that an extra +/-1 will be available for us during Turn [year]. It is unknown when in the year Income and Guild Income take effect, only that they do "within" that year.
Opinions of you:
Khemetri: 4/10 [C] R
Magyar: 7/10
Kurna: 8/10
Ealam: 8/10
Vynta: 6/10
Ruma: 5/10
Pamplona: 8/10
Abyss: 5/10
Hung: 6/10 [C]
Rexum Germanum: 5/10
-Hasum 4/10
-Behryvar 5/10
Tarta: 5/10
Styrmyr: 4/10
Amber Road: 8/10 [C], 2/5 [A]
Melkut Ymaryn: 51
Additional Stats (1608 Initial Results)
Authority: 1
Influence: 5 (+1 in 1610)
Estimated Stress (unknown start point): 4.6
Other Notables: None
Revaunchists Appeasement: Liberation of Greenshore
Txollan Concerns Met: Establish Trade Enclaves, Hung (expires in 1611); Sacred Warding, Hung (expires in 1615)
Num Profitable Markets: 3 (2 without Probable -Amber Road Opinion) ???
Num Semi-Profitable Markets [Estimated Treasury]: 4 [2.5] ???
Next Guild Income Within: 1610
Treasury: 5.8 (-0.8 within 1610, 1615,... ; +1 within 1610, 1612,...)
Unoccupied Banner Companies: None
Action [Investment]: Scheduled Investment Return Year (Estimated Return Year)
Sacred Warding, Hung [1 Authority]: 1615
Establish Trade Enclaves, Hung [1 Influence]: 1611
Revaunchists Weakenings: 3 (+1 Pending)
- Tin Tribes Independence
- White Peace with Hellas
- Amber Road Independence
- Refrain from conquering Stymyr to mountains (Pending)
Note: expect +1 Revaunchist weakening this midturn
All dates are tentative estimates; they can change in response to circumstances (e.g. failures, crits). +/-1 in [year] means that an extra +/-1 will be available for us during Turn [year]. It is unknown when in the year Income and Guild Income take effect, only that they do "within" that year.
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Will edit it in at that point; no worries.
I think the stats above should be okay in the meantime, but it probably needs more double-checking than usual.
Edit: am also pontificating over whether to just remove the "Sell Food, Kus" entry now that it's done (would also be consistent with 1 year tasks not showing up on snapshots), or leave it in for easier auditing.For the sake of auditing, am leaving it in for now.
I think the stats above should be okay in the meantime, but it probably needs more double-checking than usual.
Edit: am also pontificating over whether to just remove the "Sell Food, Kus" entry now that it's done (would also be consistent with 1 year tasks not showing up on snapshots), or leave it in for easier auditing.
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- Location
- Asia
[X] Conquer to the mountains. (Easier militarily, Revaunchists strengthened.)
Paralysis due to fear of revaunchists is as bad as letting them influence policy. We have weakened them enough and we can do it again.
Paralysis due to fear of revaunchists is as bad as letting them influence policy. We have weakened them enough and we can do it again.
It's not fear of revaunchists, so much as the subsequent distraction from having to integrate all of Stymyr (and dealing with any disloyalty that comes about in the meantime, raiders from the mountains, etc). This is a distraction we cannot afford, with the Black Sheep war within 2-3 years.
Conquering Stymyr is a great way to win the war and lose the peace (only it's not peace, exactly, but rather the next two wars). Simply holding against them, on the other hand (which we have a good chance of, what with outnumbering Levy + Banner Company combo + Dragon General already in Greenshore) would minimize the Stymyr grudges while still sending a strong message not to test the Ymaryn, ensuring a minimum-cost peace.
...
...
Earlier, Kiba made the observation that the Trade Enclave delay is actually good for us, since it means the Hung will have more years of witnessing 100%-effort Sacred Warding on the Ymaryn's part before finalizing the trade agreement.
There is a 56% likelihood that the trade negotiations will only take another two years (and a 44% likelihood of more, probably at most 1 year).
If the travel time is 1 year as it was for the diplomats, then the herds will be arriving this year. That means two (and maybe three) years of exposure to Sacred Warding while in the middle of negotiations.
If the travel time is 2 years (I think this is the most it could possibly be) then it's not as ideal, but that still means one (and maybe two) years of exposure.
Let's hope the goodwill (and, on the more self-interested end, the pressure on the Hung negotiators not to fuck this up) is intense.
Conquering Stymyr is a great way to win the war and lose the peace (only it's not peace, exactly, but rather the next two wars). Simply holding against them, on the other hand (which we have a good chance of, what with outnumbering Levy + Banner Company combo + Dragon General already in Greenshore) would minimize the Stymyr grudges while still sending a strong message not to test the Ymaryn, ensuring a minimum-cost peace.
...
...
Earlier, Kiba made the observation that the Trade Enclave delay is actually good for us, since it means the Hung will have more years of witnessing 100%-effort Sacred Warding on the Ymaryn's part before finalizing the trade agreement.
There is a 56% likelihood that the trade negotiations will only take another two years (and a 44% likelihood of more, probably at most 1 year).
If the travel time is 1 year as it was for the diplomats, then the herds will be arriving this year. That means two (and maybe three) years of exposure to Sacred Warding while in the middle of negotiations.
If the travel time is 2 years (I think this is the most it could possibly be) then it's not as ideal, but that still means one (and maybe two) years of exposure.
Let's hope the goodwill (and, on the more self-interested end, the pressure on the Hung negotiators not to fuck this up) is intense.
Found textual evidence against this:
Granted, this doesn't outright rule out raising a levy from other cities, but it seems quite unlikely at this point.
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[X] Conquer to the mountains. (Easier militarily, Revaunchists strengthened.)
I think @Oshha already mentioned this, but attacking Stymyr was the best of a bad lot. We had to attack somebody and between Stymyr and Western Wall, it's obvious who was weaker.
Pacifying a disloyal populace will also be a lot easier than dealing with an army from Stymyr. Between the Guilds, Cholera and Starpox treatment, consistent access to food and our enormous trade markets, we have a lot to offer the general populace. People don't rebel without reason. If their lives are made better, the average person will not fight against you. This isn't the Age of Irrational Nationalism and the Stymyr people are our cultural cousins. Plus, the Ymaryn are fully multi-cultural and religiously tolerant. The divide isn't insurmountable. To argue otherwise is to suggest we abandon everything about the Ymaryn and retreat to being a hermit kingdom in the Caucasus. The Ymaryn are a cultural union beyond 'High' Ymaryn culture.
Conquering land is not somehow uniquely impossible, it's clearly happened throughout history! It's also happened for us, too! We conquered the Thunder Plateau by force as well as Txolla. We subjugated the nomads in not!Ukraine. Free Hills turned to us for military protection. It wasn't a direct threat of military force from us that brought them into the Empire, but there was absolutely implicit coercion ongoing there. There's this idea that the Ymaryn haven't conquered people, but that's genuinely not true. We totally have.
We would get in trouble if we conquered wantonly. Due to our values, we really need to hold onto any land we take, but it is possible to hold onto land. Taking the lowlands of Stymyr up to the mountains gives us a defensible border, much more than what we have now. As long as we can secure and hold our gains, it is possible for us to expand. In fact, some degree of expansion may be necessary because it permits us to consolidate an otherwise indefensible position!
We're going to have to crush Stymyr to get them to agree to a multi-year truce and honour it. The latter is the key part.
The big issue with historical peace treaties is that there's nothing backing them up. Stymyr could repudiate the treaty the day after it was signed and that wouldn't be considered deeply unusual. The Field of The Cloth of Gold was an enormous summit between England and France in 1520 that promised ever lasting peace and was built on a joint military alliance from 20 years before.
England would be at war with France by 1521. The ink was hardly dry.
If Stymyr thinks they can stick a knife in us when we go against the Thunder Plateau, they absolutely will. That's how war and diplomacy worked during this time period. Since we have an Elective Monarchy with a fully bureaucratic state we don't even really have the tools to solve this dispute. There's a reason royal marriages were so important in peace treaties. They gave you a solid reason not to abrogate your treaties. You were now family and the other party had your son or daughter.
If we want to do this, it doesn't mean committing to a simple peace treaty. It means committing to a brutal war to obliterate Stymyr's ability to act against us for at least the next 10-20 years. Compared to going for a defensible border, I somehow doubt that this will be less bloody. Recall: given Stymyr can (sometimes) call up a City Levy, military power is not held by the noble elite or a warrior class, but in the general morass of civilian manpower. Their ability to fight is a function of the size of the general population and economy. We either have to destroy that or capture that within our borders in order to guarantee a peace.
If Stymyr backstabs us during the war with the Thunder Plateau, I don't even want to think about what it would do. The Revanchists would be strengthened beyond belief, likely far more than we've managed to weaken them in my mind. It validates everything that they preach. Even if we somehow manage to fight Stymyr off (I honestly don't think we could get a City Levy while the Mass Levy is active, they draw on the same manpower source and we know Stymyr can do City Levies), the Revanchists will have been proven right. Unambiguously right. We would have to destroy Stymyr for attacking us when we're weak and it's certain they would force us to turn our attention outwards to other potential threats.
I think @Oshha already mentioned this, but attacking Stymyr was the best of a bad lot. We had to attack somebody and between Stymyr and Western Wall, it's obvious who was weaker.
Pacifying a disloyal populace will also be a lot easier than dealing with an army from Stymyr. Between the Guilds, Cholera and Starpox treatment, consistent access to food and our enormous trade markets, we have a lot to offer the general populace. People don't rebel without reason. If their lives are made better, the average person will not fight against you. This isn't the Age of Irrational Nationalism and the Stymyr people are our cultural cousins. Plus, the Ymaryn are fully multi-cultural and religiously tolerant. The divide isn't insurmountable. To argue otherwise is to suggest we abandon everything about the Ymaryn and retreat to being a hermit kingdom in the Caucasus. The Ymaryn are a cultural union beyond 'High' Ymaryn culture.
Conquering land is not somehow uniquely impossible, it's clearly happened throughout history! It's also happened for us, too! We conquered the Thunder Plateau by force as well as Txolla. We subjugated the nomads in not!Ukraine. Free Hills turned to us for military protection. It wasn't a direct threat of military force from us that brought them into the Empire, but there was absolutely implicit coercion ongoing there. There's this idea that the Ymaryn haven't conquered people, but that's genuinely not true. We totally have.
We would get in trouble if we conquered wantonly. Due to our values, we really need to hold onto any land we take, but it is possible to hold onto land. Taking the lowlands of Stymyr up to the mountains gives us a defensible border, much more than what we have now. As long as we can secure and hold our gains, it is possible for us to expand. In fact, some degree of expansion may be necessary because it permits us to consolidate an otherwise indefensible position!
We're going to have to crush Stymyr to get them to agree to a multi-year truce and honour it. The latter is the key part.
The big issue with historical peace treaties is that there's nothing backing them up. Stymyr could repudiate the treaty the day after it was signed and that wouldn't be considered deeply unusual. The Field of The Cloth of Gold was an enormous summit between England and France in 1520 that promised ever lasting peace and was built on a joint military alliance from 20 years before.
England would be at war with France by 1521. The ink was hardly dry.
If Stymyr thinks they can stick a knife in us when we go against the Thunder Plateau, they absolutely will. That's how war and diplomacy worked during this time period. Since we have an Elective Monarchy with a fully bureaucratic state we don't even really have the tools to solve this dispute. There's a reason royal marriages were so important in peace treaties. They gave you a solid reason not to abrogate your treaties. You were now family and the other party had your son or daughter.
If we want to do this, it doesn't mean committing to a simple peace treaty. It means committing to a brutal war to obliterate Stymyr's ability to act against us for at least the next 10-20 years. Compared to going for a defensible border, I somehow doubt that this will be less bloody. Recall: given Stymyr can (sometimes) call up a City Levy, military power is not held by the noble elite or a warrior class, but in the general morass of civilian manpower. Their ability to fight is a function of the size of the general population and economy. We either have to destroy that or capture that within our borders in order to guarantee a peace.
If Stymyr backstabs us during the war with the Thunder Plateau, I don't even want to think about what it would do. The Revanchists would be strengthened beyond belief, likely far more than we've managed to weaken them in my mind. It validates everything that they preach. Even if we somehow manage to fight Stymyr off (I honestly don't think we could get a City Levy while the Mass Levy is active, they draw on the same manpower source and we know Stymyr can do City Levies), the Revanchists will have been proven right. Unambiguously right. We would have to destroy Stymyr for attacking us when we're weak and it's certain they would force us to turn our attention outwards to other potential threats.
Thunder Plateau wasn't ever our goal. We decapitated their government on accident because the King wouldn't surrender and there wasn't literally anyone left we can negotiate with. Even then, we don't really receive taxes from Thunder Plateau.
We never really subjugated any nomads. They voluntarily bent the knee to us rather than flee.
Freehills turned to us, voluntarily. Or else they'll be conquered by someone else.
We acquired Txolla in spite of our value system. It almost killed us. Any misstep could have fucked us up.
The problem with conquest is loot and what it will do the Ymaryn psyche. It's extremely damaging. We best avoid conquest as much as we can.
It is a poison pill.
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[X] Conquer to the mountains. (Easier militarily, Revaunchists strengthened.)