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Ymaryn Successor Quest (Paths of Civ AU)

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noncannon said:
Txolla, on the other hand, is indefensible and has already been attacked, repeatedly, every few years.
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Txolla is only indefensible without Black Sheep. If we can secure that, we're fine. The western border of Txolla actually belongs to the Highland Kingdom who've been dedicatedly forting up their little slice of paradise since the Godfist Incident. There's no way for them to be easily dislodged.

The area between us and Khemetri is the Arabian Peninsula which is mostly desert. It's not easy to move an army through there since you're utterly dependent on oasis and water resources. It would be relatively easy to fortify it and make it virtually impregnable.

OliWhail said:
E:
Is Greenshore flat enough for Heaven's Hawks to have an advantage?
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I would think so. Stymyr looks like it holds most of modern-day Romania. The westernmost part in Transylvania would be hilly and mountainous, but the rest is a flat river valley.

Oshha said:
With the new information Behryvar-Tarta relations, I am still inclined to continue to try and sell guns to Behryvar. An unlikely loss of opinion is worth the money, especially since it seems like Tarta dislikes Styrmyr enough for us to work together against them even if they aren't particularly fond of us.
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I'm wondering, depending on how the war goes, do we want to think about annexing Stymyr? They're of the People, even if of a misguided type. The fact we allowed a group of People to leave during PoC and become slaving barbarians has never sat right with me.

Greenshore's borders are not defensible unless we push them back to the Carpathian mountains and that appears to be most of Stymyr's land. Securing the border will mean a lot if we're ever confronted by hostiles elsewhere or the Ymaryn weaken. Tarta may be willing to help in exchange for monetary concessions or land that they claim as theirs but was taken by Stymyr in the past.

If it comes to war, we're going to probably need to throw a City Levy at Stymyr either way and if we're investing that much, we may as well go for gold. If they're anything like us, taking an inch or taking a mile of their land doesn't matter, they won't tolerate either.

noliar said:
OTOH Sacred Warding requires enough input from us that it can't spread on its own like anti-cholera so we don't have to concentrate the gifts into as few turns as possible.
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The other thing is: Cholera was endemic to eastern India and was one of the deadliest diseases on the sub-continent. Even today, bad water and diarrhea are one of the leading causes of death in rural India (~50% of the population are at risk). Cholera never expanded beyond India until colonialism in the 1800s. The fact the Cholera is a problem at all is ahistorical and something AN acknowledged was a mistake. The Saffryn Sea powers likely care about the cure for Cholera a lot less than Kus where the disease is absolutely endemic. Rehydration therapy will be helpful for Saffryn Sea powers, but it is nowhere near as game changing as it was in Kus where it saves thousands of lives each year.
 
Redium said:
Txolla is only indefensible without Black Sheep. If we can secure that, we're fine.
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I meant more that they're indefensible this turn, so we should be more inclined to guard it than for a hypothetical Stymyr invasion.

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Oshha said:
I'm not fussed about where we stick our Banner Companies. Unless we are sending them into a war zone or something, it feels a bit below the abstraction of the game where we deploy them. I just assume that the Dafydd is sticking them in the optimal position to protect the empire if we aren't specifically telling them to do something or go somewhere.
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This flies in the face of what "not deployed" (in the status list) means.

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We also need to consider the Hung. They're on a timer before they find out about our "blood sacrifices", and are the ones most likely, after that (even more than Khem) to stop listening to us. So, we should start Sacred Warding the Hung within a few turns, to pre-solidify our relationship.

Fouredged Sword said:
Everyone knows our chloria cure works. They know we don't have starpox ether. We don't hide this. They just don't know how to replicate it.
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Who, those assholes? Y'know, I used to think well of them, but maybe they were just exaggerating. Probably, even. Now that I think of it, not getting sick from Cholera was obvious BS; how shameful!

Tell me you haven't seen this sort of thing IRL.
 
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Redium said:
The other thing is: Cholera was endemic to eastern India and was one of the deadliest diseases on the sub-continent. Even today, bad water and diarrhea are one of the leading causes of death in rural India (~50% of the population are at risk). Cholera never expanded beyond India until colonialism in the 1800s. The fact the Cholera is a problem at all is ahistorical and something AN acknowledged was a mistake. The Saffryn Sea powers likely care about the cure for Cholera a lot less than Kus where the disease is absolutely endemic. Rehydration therapy will be helpful for Saffryn Sea powers, but it is nowhere near as game changing as it was in Kus where it saves thousands of lives each year.
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There is a reason you got so many goodies out of sharing the cure for Cholera in Kus.

In this time line, it did escape the subcontinent, and made its way west, where it hit the People and they defeated it. So it's around in saffron, but it isn't anywhere near as huge a deal as it is in Kus.
 
[X] Plan Fouredged
-[X] Authority: Infiltration, Black Sheep: You can't imagine the People of the Thunder Plateau are happy to be under nomad bootheel. See if you can't find some organized resistance to speak to or fund. (???%. ? Years. ???)
-[X] Influence: Sell Food, Kus: Famine stalks the land in Kus. The admin chief says that with the population crash of the collapse, the farms are producing a considerable surplus that could be sold to the Kus. Which could help plug the funding hole until more reliable revenue streams are secured. The Spirit Chief, on the other hand, advises that the morally upright thing to do is sell the grain cheaply to save as many kusmen from starvation as possible. (100%. 1+1d2 Years. Other Effects)
--[X] Feed as many as possible. (+1 Influence, +.1 Treasury, ++Kus Opinion, -Khem Opinion, Possible -Khem Opinion)
-[X] Influence: Diplomatic Contact, Styrmyr: You are most displeased to find that the Styrmyr have decided to immediately conquer Greenshore upon the cessation of the Games. Still, Greenshore were rebels, so maybe the Styrmyr could prove reasonable? (???% 1 Year.)
-[X] Influence: Personal Stewards of Nature, Styrmyr: Demand that the Styrmyr return the lands of greenshore to your rule. (Narrative%?. 1 Year. +Influence. Casus Belli if failed)
-[X] Influence: Diplomatic Contact, Tarta: Who are Tarta and what do they want? (???%. 1 Year.)
-[X] Influence: Spreading the Warding, Khem: Long ago, the People spread knowledge of the Sacred Warding to the Khemetri, trusting that they where the only power sophisticated enough to maintain it. Somewhere along the way, the knowledge was lost. Probably during the Samynish conquest, since a lot of the old priests died then. Still, they remain a sophisticated civilization, and likely able to handle the Sacred Warding correctly. (50%. 5 Years. +1 Khem Opinion, possible +1 Khem Opinion. Starpox fought.)
-[X] Attend to a particular action personally.
--[X] Diplomatic Contact, Styrmyr
-[X] Deploy Banner Companies: Maintain readiness in eastern Trelli, in case the Styrmyr attack our diplomats or otherwise commit treachery
 
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Note that there is only a 50% chance that Spreading the Warding, Khem completes within nine years. More specifically:

Within:
5 years: 3%
6 years: 11%
7 years: 23%
8 years: 36%
9 years: 50%
10 years: 62%
11 years: 73%
12 years: 80%

So this is an Influence locked away for many, many years.

This is similar to the earlier math for the Hung enclaves.

The chances of being delayed by exactly n years is: p(n) = [4 + n choose n] (50%)^5(50%)^n. The second term refers to the required five 50% successes; the last to the n 50% failures. The first is how many ways to arrange the n failures within all 5+n years (except the last, which must be a success, so 4+n).

5 years completion is p(0). 6 years completion is p(0) + p(1), 7 years completion is p(0) + p(1) + p(2), etc.
 
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noncannon said:
Note that there is only a 50% chance that Spreading the Warding, Khem completes within nine years. More specifically:

Within:
5 years: 3%
6 years: 11%
7 years: 23%
8 years: 36%
9 years: 50%
10 years: 62%
11 years: 73%
12 years: 80%

So this is an Influence locked in for many, many years.

This is similar to the earlier math for the Hung enclaves.

The chances of being delayed by exactly n years is: p(n) = [4 + n choose n] (50%)^5(50%)^n. The second term refers to the required five 50% successes; the last to the 50% failures. The first is how many ways to arrange the n failures within all years (except the last, which must be a success).

5 years completion is p(0). 6 years completion is p(0) + p(1), 7 years completion is p(0) + p(1) + p(2), etc.
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That arguably makes it an anti-war guarantee for equally long
 
It would be more efficient to at least give them the Cholera cure first before starting the warding. That way, we don't either 1) have to spend an extra influence mid-warding to give the cholera cure to them, or 2) get it leaked to them by the others we're giving it to during that time.

But once we give them the Cholera cure, there's no near or mid-term danger of war, so we can just wait for our action economy to get better (or for there to be fewer other things to do, or in case Khem does get hostile) anyway.

These long influence lock-aways are things we should be delaying until it's necessary (in the case of the Hung) or there's little else to do, because in the meantime the influence can be used each year for other equally/more useful things. Raising income, spreading cholera cures, diplomancing, spreading warding to Amber Road...
 
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Kiba said:
Why people are voting for Fouredged plan with 50% of probability of success for Sacred Warding?
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Because failure of the roll does not mean the action stops, merely that it's delayed. But we pacify Khem while we piss them off to ensure nothing untwards happens. While we are working on the warding Khem won't want to start something, ether trade conflict or war. The last thing we need if for Khem to decide to pirate the monsoon sea to stop our grain.
 
Fouredged Sword said:
Because failure of the roll does not mean the action stops, merely that it's delayed. But we pacify Khem while we piss them off to ensure nothing untwards happens. While we are working on the warding Khem won't want to start something, ether trade conflict or war. The last thing we need if for Khem to decide to pirate the monsoon sea to stop our grain.
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It's 50% chance of 12 years. That's a long time for an influence to be locked up, when we coulda use an authority instead. Do we want more Sacred Warding or not?
 
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