The Long Night Part One: Embers in the Dusk: A Planetary Governor Quest (43k) Complete Sequel Up

Investigate the Sea?

  • Yes

    Votes: 593 80.4%
  • No

    Votes: 145 19.6%

  • Total voters
    738
I just went through myself and got the same numbers you did for the upkeep change.

The issue you've failed to account for there is that exotic material is worth about 100x as much as advanced material, and over 100,000 times as much as the other types.

If you convert it into trade credits. The cost of the investment is 1,272,836. The return per time unit is 9407 credits.

Credit values taken as Thrones 5.1, Material 26.2, Metal 6.6, Promethium 26.2, Advanced Material 85.8, Exotic material 81.1. These values were as generous towards the project as feasible.

Unfortunately things are a little more complicated than "how many trade credits is this worth". We can't just freely trade debt between different worlds, and not every other world is able to provide what resources we need. We can trade Midgard for a crapload of Thrones if we've got a shortage for that, but they aren't going to sell us Exotic Material, and the worlds that generally can do that won't sell a lot of Thrones. What we need and how we can get it is, IMO, the more important consideration. For our own situation, Thrones and Advanced Material are generally the more important consideration.

And even if it does take a while to recoup our investment in absolute value terms, that's fine. It's not like Avernus is planning on going anywhere, and as we increase our military upkeep through further expansions (I guarantee you we'll have more expansions within the next couple centuries, as well as a bunch of smaller stuff), and none of the calculations factor in replacement costs, which we have some of annually due to wildlife and Chaos psyker losses as well as whatever campaigns we happen to deal with.

So, I still think it's worth doing sooner than later.
 
Unfortunately things are a little more complicated than "how many trade credits is this worth". We can't just freely trade debt between different worlds, and not every other world is able to provide what resources we need. We can trade Midgard for a crapload of Thrones if we've got a shortage for that, but they aren't going to sell us Exotic Material, and the worlds that generally can do that won't sell a lot of Thrones. What we need and how we can get it is, IMO, the more important consideration. For our own situation, Thrones and Advanced Material are generally the more important consideration.
Trade credit values I carefully selected based on who we could buy more from, sell more to, or buy less from. Those were not randomly selected or whichever one had the highest or lowest.

Trade credits being unexchangeable between planets is also a rather bizarre idea to try to put forward anyway since we do that basically every trade round by buying things from one place that we then sell to another.

And even if it does take a while to recoup our investment in absolute value terms, that's fine. It's not like Avernus is planning on going anywhere, and as we increase our military upkeep through further expansions (I guarantee you we'll have more expansions within the next couple centuries, as well as a bunch of smaller stuff), and none of the calculations factor in replacement costs, which we have some of annually due to wildlife and Chaos psyker losses as well as whatever campaigns we happen to deal with.
Annual wildlife replacement should be included in military upkeep since it isn't included anywhere else.

The upkeep increasing with further expansions is not very relevant because the workshops would also need to be expanded. If the military doubles we'd have to do this project again just to have enough repair shop space. We've seen this with the juvenat factories most obviously. When you massively expand something you also need to massively expand the things which originally gave it bonuses. Repair workshops suitable for our current military aren't going to be suitable for our military in a couple centuries from now. Not only will a military several times larger need several times as many repair shops (or several times larger ones), our military hardware shifts in composition over time as well so the repair shops won't be able to service all the new equipment over time either.

We'd have to do the project again anyway, which would in turn have to pay down that cost again.

So, I still think it's worth doing sooner than later.
The exotic wildlife exports can pay for themselves in a matter of decades rather than centuries and are thus a far better choice.
 
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current trade values

Resource

Thrones

Material

Metal

Promethium

Advanced Material

Exotic Material

Food

unit size

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000

10

10

value per unit

1.00

5.35

0.88

3.15

7.65

3.09

11.20
at current expenses it would take 56 years (11.2 turns) to recover the cost of the action, a number that will go down rapidly with any additional military upkeep costs or wars (such as the one you are fighting)
these workshops will be enough to deal with a lot more then your current military size
 
current trade values

Resource

Thrones

Material

Metal

Promethium

Advanced Material

Exotic Material

Food

unit size

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000

10

10

value per unit

1.00

5.35

0.88

3.15

7.65

3.09

11.20
at current expenses it would take 56 years (11.2 turns) to recover the cost of the action, a number that will go down rapidly with any additional military upkeep costs or wars (such as the one you are fighting)
these workshops will be enough to deal with a lot more then your current military size

Are you really shifting trade values this much? A lot of them aren't even within 10x of what we've paid in previous rounds of trading.

Exotic material for instance we've paid 20x that for in the past. If it's supposed to be relative to thrones then it's still overpricing AM by around 3x which then heavily biases in favor of the repair workshops. If EM was actually this cheap it would be amazing. Sadly EM is usually more than 10x the value of thrones, not 3.1x.

The EM cost is the single biggest problem with the repair workshops. We usually pay around 1,500,000x the cost of thrones for EM. To only pay 300,000x the cost of thrones would radically shift our trade balance. If you're actually cutting its cost by 5x then that changes basically all of our trade balance.
 
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Are you really shifting trade values this much? A lot of them aren't even within 10x of what we've paid in previous rounds of trading.

Exotic material for instance we've paid 20x that for in the past. If it's supposed to be relative to thrones then it's still overpricing AM by around 3x which then heavily biases in favor of the repair workshops. If EM was actually this cheap it would be amazing. Sadly EM is usually more than 10x the value of thrones, not 3.1x.
i am using the same formulas as I have always used, so any changes reflect the changes in the economy of the Imperial Trust, mostly Muspelheim and Nilfheim
 
i am using the same formulas as I have always used, so any changes reflect the changes in the economy of the Imperial Trust, mostly Muspelheim and Nilfheim
What decreased the value of EM by 80% over the course of 25 years?

This kind of heavily informs our trade agreements and our construction because it basically means all our attempts to build EM production up were almost utterly pointless. Switching every EM production facility out for AM production facilities would be better at this point because EM has been so devalued.
 
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Annual wildlife replacement should be included in military upkeep since it isn't included anywhere else.

It isn't, because it's random. We lose different amounts of people per year. It's not a factor we can reliably calculate.

The exotic wildlife exports can pay for themselves in a matter of decades rather than centuries and are thus a far better choice.

And it's not like we can't do them next turn - Rotbart's going to be done with the war, so he can use a PA if nothing else. I want to get the Repair Workshops started now so we'll start getting the benefit sooner, especially in regards to the savings for AM, which I consider to be more important in the long run than savings for Thrones.

What decreased the value of EM by 80% over the course of 25 years?

Presumably the worlds producing it significantly increased their production, but demand hasn't significantly increased to match.
 
Well something to also consider is we have more than two dozen world that are finishing colonization efforts and expanding the economy. That is a big chunck of people and whole lot of industry coming on line. So while the core worlds have expanded thier industry, the Trust just about tripled in size
 
Were I a betting man I'd say a combination of a new generation of artisans graduating in rapid succession (thank you new Juvnat) combined with Muspelheim and Nilfheim "reactivating" a more of their old factories.
If they could actually raise their production that absurdly over the course of 25 years then they damn well should have done it a century ago so we could have been in a way better position now.

And it's not like we can't do them next turn - Rotbart's going to be done with the war, so he can use a PA if nothing else. I want to get the Repair Workshops started now so we'll start getting the benefit sooner, especially in regards to the savings for AM, which I consider to be more important in the long run than savings for Thrones.
Thrones are convertible to other resources. Especially because the updated trade values massively inflated the value of thrones. Compared to Thrones the EM fell 80%, AM fell by around 25-50%, metal fell by around 25%, promethium fell 25%. Thrones are far more valuable than they've ever been before.

More thrones means more money to buy things with. The fact we had to do an emergency trade deal just to avoid bankruptcy two turns ago makes it all the more relevant when thrones appreciate in value.

It isn't, because it's random. We lose different amounts of people per year. It's not a factor we can reliably calculate.
Upkeep being flat year to year is itself an abstraction. Upkeep of anything is variable year to year essentially at random because of the number of factors involved. An organization where upkeep was identical year to year is one where there's money laundering or embezzling going on.

A flat value set aside each year for upkeep is therefore an approximate with the expectation some years it will be too much and other years too little and it will average out over time.

There's no reason that can't be applied to wildlife deaths considering they tightly center around a fixed percentage of the population.

Well something to also consider is we have more than two dozen world that are finishing colonization efforts and expanding the economy. That is a big chunck of people and whole lot of industry coming on line. So while the core worlds have expanded thier industry, the Trust just about tripled in size
Colony worlds coming online should have increased demand for AM and EM though as their ability to produce those is limited. Whereas Metal, Promethium, Materials, and Thrones are much easier for a new world to produce and thus should have depreciated in value.
 
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If they could actually raise their production that absurdly over the course of 25 years then they damn well should have done it a century ago so we could have been in a way better position now.
You mean back when there were serious attempts to investigate them for tech heresy?

+ We dunno how long it takes to "reactivate" those factories. Took a while to reactivate the ones that actually needed to be reactivated.

Also Svartalfheim is kinda constrained by how many people they can train...kinda like the admech in that regard.
 
Colony worlds coming online would greatly increase the demand for Am and Em since most worlds do not have the ridiculous standards that Avernus has for there Militia and defenses let alone Armies.
 
You mean back when there were serious attempts to investigate them for tech heresy?

+ We dunno how long it takes to "reactivate" those factories.

Also Svartalfheim is kinda constrained by how many people they can train...kinda like the admech in that regard.
What serious attempts?

Muspelheim and Niflheim are so secretive that they could be planetary scale transforming AI mecha and we wouldn't know about it until they started playing pool with each other.
 
That sort of massive deflation in the value of Exotic Materials makes me think Niflheim and Muspelheim are trying to muscle Svartalfheim out of the EM market so they can dominate it themselves. Perhaps they want to make themselves immune to Tech Heresy accusations by making the Trust military dependent on their cheap EM?

Or they just want to be certain they can supply the EM needed for the new colonies to equip their armies and navies to the Trust standard.
 
My plan is nearly done and postable. Just waiting on @Durin to clear some questions:
@Doomed Wombat Thanks. I am a bit unsure about the Rune of Enchantment so better ask Durin.

@Durin
1. Does the Rune of Enchantment need a connection rune or can another rune be set with it? If yes how many?
2. I must profess I lost sight of which technologies we have implemented. Could you remind me which of the following we had implemented already (I am reasonably sure none but I don't know anymore) and which we don't need to implement and which we still need to implement?
2a. AA Missile Launcher
2b. AA Heavy Missile Launcher
2c. Hellsword
2d. Testudo-class Guardian Tank
2e. Fellblade
2f. Landing Pad
2g. Spartan
2h. Land Raider Annihilator
 
What serious attempts?

Muspelheim and Niflheim are so secretive that they could be planetary scale transforming AI mecha and we wouldn't know about it until they started playing pool with each other.
Apparently there were real attempts by the admech conservatives to try and investigate both worlds.

Apparently this was prompted by Muspelheim releasing their melta weapons which were far superior to anything else anyone had and later on we learned they're even better than the ones in the data core (not that surprising to be honest. They likely never stopped doing what they were doing in the DAoT.)

In any case calls from the admech to investigate and eventually Britton and Inquisition stopped em because at the time there were more important things to do.

As for secretive...yeah they are. But, they're opening up. For me there are four big mysteries left with them.

1. How did they survive the War of Iron so intact (comparatively).
2. How is Surt so abnormally strong/what are his other duties?
3. How does Nilfheim keep its population growing so fast?
4. What was the bribe Surt gave Svartalfheim that he can't talk with us about?

The third is probably cloning as they don't suffer from the same problems normal mass clones would, but I don't want to make assumptions.
 
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Ok, here's my plan. Subject to some changes based on discussion. I've added in the Runes to buy, and also changed some actions to give the Alpha support to help pass his trials.

[X] Plan Enjou T107

Munitorum
SLOT A - Year 2
-Y2: Implement (Fellblade): Planning
-Y4: Implement (Testudo-class Guardian Tank): Planning

Durin answered in Discord that we do need an Implement action for Fellblades to get Fellblade regiments.

Void Command
SLOT A - Year 3
-Y3: Expand Shipyards: Large
-- EXPEDITE YEAR 3
SLOT B - Year 5
-Y5: Construct: Repairs: Second Step
SLOT C - Year 5
-Y5: Expand Shipyards: Large
-- EXPEDITE YEAR 5

Administratum
SLOT A - Year 1
-Y1: Repair Workshops

Diplomacy
SLOT A - Year 3
-Y3: Areatha: Open Pass
-Y4: Trade Talks (Nynye)
-Y5: Sirens Trade (Rune of Warding, Rune of Enchantment, Rune of Focus, Rune of Power, Rune of Protection)

We should have over 59k souls by the end of the turn, which will be enough to buy this whole list. This seems to be the list of Runes people want most based on discussion, so just putting it in rather than having us deal with a trade turn. However, I could switch this with something else and we can wait to see how many cultists we get this year - if we manage to capture over a couple thousand total it'd give us enough for another elemental rune.

Arbites
SLOT A - Year 1
-Y1-Y4: Focused Psyker Hunting
-Y4-Y5: Counter-Intelligence
SLOT B - Year 4
-Y4-Y5: Counter-Intelligence

AdMech
SLOT A - Year 1 (Explorator)
-Y1: Goliath Factory Ship Redesign
-- DOUBLE DOWN YEAR 1
-Y4: Gravatic Array: Computing Issues
SLOT B - Year 3 (Biologis)
-Y3: Complete Examination (Psyrodactyls)
-- DOUBLE DOWN YEAR 3
SLOT C - Year 1 (Free)
-Y1: Repair the Well of Urd

Ministorum
SLOT A - Year 3
-Y3: Those in the Shadows
-Y4: What is an Archetype?
-- DOUBLE DOWN YEAR 4
SLOT B - Year 3
-Y3: Those in the Shadows
-Y4: What is an Archetype?

Astra Telepathica
SLOT A - Year 1 (Tamia)
-Y1: Mentoring: Alpha
-Y2: Massed Songweavers
SLOT B - Year 1 (Aria)
-Y1: Valinor Campaign: Support
-Y2: Mentoring: Alpha
-Y3: Create Psyker Order (Create an order specialized in hunting/fighting daemons and Chaos psykers)
SLOT C - Free Divination
-Y?: Free Action: Greater Divination (Vulkan)

Personal
SLOT A - Year 1
-Y1: Spend Time With (Aria)
-Y2: Spend Time With (Admiral Freyr)
-Y3: Spend Time With (Admiral Freyr)
-Y4: Spend Time With (Syr)
-Y5: Spend Time With (Syr)
SLOT B - Year 1
-Y1: Spend Time With (Aria)
-Y2: Spend Time With (Admiral Freyr)
-Y3: Spend Time With (Admiral Freyr)
-Y4: Knowing Avernus (QM's Choice)
-Y5: Knowing Avernus (QM's Choice)
SLOT C - Year 3
-Y3: Thaddeus Expertise: Expand (Limberlost) to Small Hive

Looking at Durin's prior answer on whether we have another PA, and the fact that the PA option isn't available in the turn, I don't think we have an open PA right now to do. That said, doing a couple QM's Choice "Knowing Avernus" actions since those are available, and will give interesting info.
 
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Yes, and one way to read that is "he's only got the one that he's currently using". I asked for clarification before, but didn't get an answer. The fact that the open PA action itself isn't available in the turn options tells me it's not available. If it is available, I'll use it for something else, probably the other admin action that'll be good for our economy.
 
[X] Plan Portec T107

Munitorum
Slot A (4 years)
Year 2- Implement (AA Missile Launcher OR AA Heavy Missile Launcher): Planning
Year 4- Implement (Hellsword OR Testudo-class Guardian Tank): Planning
As Richards wants only short projects. The Laucher is infantry portable while the heavy version could probaly replace/support other AA weapons.
The Hellsword is a siege tank and the Testudo has a projectable void shield to protect against our most hated foe: artillery.
Not more acurate because I am waiting for Durin's answer.

Void
Slot A (1 years - Construct)
Year 5- Construct: Repairs: Second Step
Slot B (3 years)
Year 5- Expand Shipyards: Large
-Expedite Year 5
Slot C (1 years)
Year 3- Expand Shipyards: Small
-Expedite Year 3
Small shipyards are faster to build than large ones and because they are build in groups of 5 (because we have 5 large ones). Given that we need to rebuild lots of escorts often we need more capacity to build them. 5 small give more in that regard compared to a large one and additionally for lower upkeep than a large one reduce the upkeep of our fleet more.

Administratum
Slot A (5 years)
Year 1- Repair Workshops
Given the calculation above I am unsure if the repair workshops will be worthwihle yet but our biggest problems are Thrones and AM at the moment and the workshops will alivate them somewhat.

Diplomacy
SLOT A (3 years)
Year 3: Areatha: Open Pass
-Double Down Year 3
Year 4: Trade Talks (Nynye)
Year 5: Sirens Trade (Rune of Warding, Rune of Focus, Rune of Toughness, Rune of Protection, Rune of Power, Rune of Lightning, Rune of Ice, Rune of Wind)
Year 5: Sirens Trade (Rune of Warding, Rune of Enchanting, Rune of Focus, Rune of Toughness, Rune of Protection, Inverse Rune of Fire)
With doubling and DD Open Pass it gets a chance of 57% (if not more if Fredericks Diplo or the Palast bonus apply to 73%) to crit (over 100 and beat the odds by 75% or more) or maybe even a Greater Crit (chance of 12% to beat the odds by 125%. With Frederick and Palace maybe up to 28%). That should give interesting and favorable results.
Durin said that no Personal Attention is free so no doubling. Still has a chance of 37% to crit.
Yes I know year 5 is double. I wait for Durins answer wether the Rune of Enchanting needs a connetcter rune to work right or not.

Arbites
Slot A (5 years)
Year 1- Counter-Intelligence
Year 2- Focused Psyker Hunting
Year 3- Focused Psyker Hunting
Year 4- Greater Psyker Hunting
Year 5- Counter-Intelligence
Slot B (2 years)
Year 4- Greater Psyker Hunting
Year 5- Counter-Intelligence
Doubled up on Greater Hunting and Counter to see what hapens. I am open for suggestions.

Mechanicus
Explorator Slot (5 years)
Year 1- Goliath Factory Ship Redesign
-Double Down Year 1
Year 4- Gravatic Array: Computing Issues
Biologis Slot (3 years)
Year 3- Complete Examination (Carniflower)
Fabricator Slot - (full)
Free Slot (5 years)
Year 1- Repair the Well of Urd
There are more important actions for Thrant but with Ridcully busy researching cheating is not an option. So the things that will work.
With the Goliath redesigned some will be build by the time the Well is ready to search for the Shipyard.

Ministorum
Slot A (3 yeras)
Year 3- Those in the Shadows
Year 4- Those in the Shadows
Year 5- IF FAILED The Power of Faith ELSE The Power of Dominions
-Double Down Year 5
Slot B (3 years)
Year 3- Preaching
Year 4- What is an Archetype?
-Double Down Year 4
An Alpha comes up, so Lins help would be great.
And he can continue on his second legacy.

Astra Telepahtica
Ridculy Slot (full)
Xavier Slot (full)
Aria Slot (5 years)
Year 1- Mentoring: Beta
Year 2- Anti-Ork Powers: Techbane
-Double Down Year 2
Year 5- Mentoring: Alpha
Tamia Slot (5 years)
Year 1- Mentoring: Alpha
Year 2- Psychic Materials: Congregation Asps
Year 3- Psychic Materials: Phase Tigers
Year 4- Psychic Materials: Bombartment Cacti
Year 5- Mentoring: Beta
Free Divination (Vulkan)
Working on the backlog of animals to dissect. The last few investigated had good results (Asps could help with telephacy and cacti with divination)

Personal
Slot A (Attention- 5 years)
Year 1- Implement (Landing Pad): Planning
Year 3- Areatha: Open Pass
Year 4- Munition Stores

Slot B (Thaddeus- 3 years)
Year 3- Expand (Limberlost) to Small Hive
Slot A (Other - 5 year)
Year 1- Knowing Avernus (QM's Choice)
Year 2 and 3- Spent time with (Xavier)
Year 4 and 5- Spent time with (Admiral Freyr)
Durin said one Attention Slot is open so lets use it.

Expedite:
Year 1- Expedite:
Year 2- Expedite:
Year 3- Expedite: Expand Shipyards: Small
Year 4- Expedite:
Year 5- Expedite: Expand Shipyards: Large

Double Down:
Year 1- Double Down: Goliath Factory Ship Redesign
Year 2- Double Down: Anti-Ork Powers: Techbane
Year 3- Double Down: Areatha: Open Pass
Year 4- Double Down: What is an Archetype?
Year 5- Double Down: IF FAILED The Power of Faith ELSE The Power of Dominions
 
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Personal
Slot A (Attention- 5 years)
Year 1- Implement (Landing Pad): Planning
Year 3- Areatha: Open Pass
Year 4- Munition Stores

Durin said one Attention Slot is open so lets use it.

I'm not really sure he did. I'd certainly be using it otherwise. We really need to confirm whether we've got an open PA action or not, because there's not enough clarity on it based on his answer.

@Durin - Do we or do we not have an available Personal Attention slot to use this turn, given that Rotbart is on campaign?

Year 2- Spent time with (Xavier)
Year 3- Spent time with (Syr)
Year 4- Spent time with (Admiral Freyr)
Year 5- Spent time with (Marschal Paulson)

Durin prefers we only do two or three people in a given turn due to more people making it more work for him.
 
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