Also, @Aranfan - Can you add this data to the cheat sheet?Your dispatched from what I recall (it may have gone a bit different, end result is actually that I should be charging 2.5 clairvoyants on your territory now) went through multiple upgrades.
1 meguca per 10 territory +25%
1 meguca per 10 territory +30% (experienced with process/territory)
1 meguca on a bicycle per 15 territory +30%
1 clairvoyant meguca per 20 territory +30%
1 clairvoyant meguca (advanced area based profiling research) per 30 territory +30%
You can expect in an area where you don't have long term data to be knocked down to 1 clairvoyant per 20 territory and +25% bonus.
For viewing purposes, it works fine. Oh, right, I can use the 'normal' map to sort of measure distances (in a crude and annoying way), but can't do so on the MMEQ map.Hmm that's unfortunate. I've been using it because it's easy to edit and show various information on it. Plus can zoom in and out as needed.
Our tandem work has shown that tandem elite casting for clairvoyance/teleporation should be about 50 miles, and that's what it looks like the Beholder's range is (not 40 miles). It makes sense as an expected value for a class 4 approximating tandem class 3's (elites).
Ugh, units and vague statements again. Okay, let's go back and see what has been said about teleport and clairvoyant ranges. It's actually kind of hard to find exact quotes, but let's see:Yes, that was the primary hint that Beholder had always been in range.
Current thought is teleport range of about 20 kilometers baseline for a veteran, around 35 for a pair of vets tandem casting, and probably around 20% less for charms from them, shouldn't generally affect too much.
1) What is a tandem pair's range? What if one of the pair is Taya?
So, clairvoyance and teleportation have the same maximum distance, vets have 20 km base range, elites have 40, and when they tandem cast they're less than the sum of their parts, a penalty that increases when you move from vet to elite. Going by that logic tandem elites should have a range of 60-65 km, which I guess would put the beholder within scry+port range of Odwara any time it was southwest of Tokyo's city center, which is about one-sixth to one-eighth of the total Tokyo Metropolitan area.
Or you could assume it's not a purely instinctual beast, which has also been repeated, and it's human level intelligence lends to the thought that it's not smart to attack organized groups in mass. When it formed, the class 3's had basically already toppled the pre-existing meguca power structure, so it's probably never tried to attack foreign girls that are generally grouped in the fifties or more. Additionally, why leave the main hunting ground when it needs a certain concentration of edible girls to survive? Finally, maybe the comment I've made some dozen times that it can only teleport once every ten or fifteen minutes is more than a random guess, and it can't risk going 50 km out of it's seat of power only to be swarmed to death before it can escape.Ugh, units and vague statements again. Okay, let's go back and see what has been said about teleport and clairvoyant ranges. It's actually kind of hard to find exact quotes, but let's see:
So, clairvoyance and teleportation have the same maximum distance, vets have 20 km base range, elites have 40, and when they tandem cast they're less than the sum of their parts, a penalty that increases when you move from vet to elite. Going by that logic tandem elites should have a range of 60-65 km, which I guess would put the beholder within scry+port range of Odwara any time it was southwest of Tokyo's city center, which is about one-sixth to one-eighth of the total Tokyo Metropolitan area.
The thing is, I was always assuming that the Eyeball's clairvoyant range was smaller than this. After all, if it were this large then the "firewall" that Numazu has been employing between their area and Hakone, which is only about 15-20 km wide, should have been completely ineffective, and we ought to have seen the Eyeball and the teleporting youma invade both them and our main territory long before now, especially if the eyeball can instantly communicate hundreds of kilometers via demonic telepathy (necessary for that city-wide pairing up adaptation we saw during the first attack on Tokyo) and has the capability of scrying and teleporting 60-65 km in a single jump. The way it's behaved up until this mini-turn has suggested that it can't see or jump more than 15-20 km, maybe 40 km tops if it insisted on staying near downtown Tokyo and never strayed to the border, until all of a sudden it did.
Meh. Was thinking the units were in miles rather than kilometers. That does change things a little.
Assuming 20 km for vets and 40 km for elites, and that the second of a tandem pair adds 75% of their max value to the total, we have:So, clairvoyance and teleportation have the same maximum distance, vets have 20 km base range, elites have 40, and when they tandem cast they're less than the sum of their parts, a penalty that increases when you move from vet to elite. Going by that logic tandem elites should have a range of 60-65 km, which I guess would put the beholder within scry+port range of Odwara any time it was southwest of Tokyo's city center, which is about one-sixth to one-eighth of the total Tokyo Metropolitan area.
Numazu's method was never about making it so they couldn't be targeted. It was about making them unappetizing.The thing is, I was always assuming that the Eyeball's clairvoyant range was smaller than this. After all, if it were this large then the "firewall" that Numazu has been employing between their area and Hakone, which is only about 15-20 km wide, should have been completely ineffective, and we ought to have seen the Eyeball and the teleporting youma invade both them and our main territory long before now, especially if the eyeball can instantly communicate hundreds of kilometers via demonic telepathy (necessary for that city-wide pairing up adaptation we saw during the first attack on Tokyo) and has the capability of scrying and teleporting 60-65 km in a single jump. The way it's behaved up until this mini-turn has suggested that it can't see or jump more than 15-20 km, maybe 40 km tops if it insisted on staying near downtown Tokyo and never strayed to the border, until all of a sudden it did.
No you can't. You're being mislead by the fact that there's an uncountably infinite number of curves of that form because every point we get removes an uncountably infinite number of curves that don't pass through it. Because you only have two degrees of freedom, two points uniquely specifies a curve.I'll grant that, but even limiting it to two variables I can make the curve dance all over.
Reduces back to a real-valued exponent.That's easily solved just by limiting the range of possible inputs. Or just using absolute value around it.
That's easily solved just by limiting the range of possible inputs. Or just using absolute value around it.
Originally I planned on a simple smooth exponential growth function over the range. But now you're encouraging much more diabolical functions. I need to open some textbooks.
This is actually something I'd account for when you guys try for a hunt that is less impacted by youma and where you have less overkill on number of clairvoyants because you're trying to scry other stuff anyway. Significant bonuses have accrued from profiling of that sort, but they're incorporated in your dispatch bonus. Which would be knocked down significantly.
Your dispatched from what I recall (it may have gone a bit different, end result is actually that I should be charging 2.5 clairvoyants on your territory now) went through multiple upgrades.
1 meguca per 10 territory +25%
1 meguca per 10 territory +30% (experienced with process/territory)
1 meguca on a bicycle per 15 territory +30%
1 clairvoyant meguca per 20 territory +30%
1 clairvoyant meguca (advanced area based profiling research) per 30 territory +30%
You can expect in an area where you don't have long term data to be knocked down to 1 clairvoyant per 20 territory and +25% bonus.
Yeah, they have maybe 20 meguca. If we give them another 20 cubes this turn (same as last), they should be mostly fine with just defending their territory.
The profiling we did was to improve our understanding of the territory we were hunting, in order to make our rotating tactics more effective. I'm pretty sure we'll need to do something similar for any significant new area we incorporate in order to get the best results, though I'm not sure what we'd be limited to (I don't remember if it would only exclude IRT, or also Standard RT, limiting us to just Basic RT). @inverted_helix?
Even if we don't go above 10 DS this month, we're only going to be harvesting about 50 cubes from our own territory next month. With the high DS overhunt, we'll probably only be looking at about two dozen cubes from our territory. Yokohama is going to be an absolute necessity either way, though we can harvest something approaching 300 cubes before we even really make a dent in the DS.
The main problem with the Yokohama hunt is going to be the diplomatic issues that crop up. With Odawara, there was basically no one else there. Yokohama is dense enough that there's going to be a fair few meguca in the area, which means we'll have to mix in diplomatic actions in order to be able to hunt there without too much problem (aside from the youma). That's another reason I'm somewhat leery of going after the Beholder next month; I don't want to do the Beholder and massive make-up hunting and put out diplomatic fires all at the same time, particularly when we can't afford not to go all-out on the hunting to make up the cube shortfall.
Okay for instance if we take DS 10 to be 0 and DS40 to be 100 that gives a simple exponential curve of impossible. Since a simple exponential curve can't ever hit zero.No you can't. You're being mislead by the fact that there's an uncountably infinite number of curves of that form because every point we get removes an uncountably infinite number of curves that don't pass through it. Because you only have two degrees of freedom, two points uniquely specifies a curve.
Reduces back to a real-valued exponent.
We don't get that stash. It's Kyouko's bug out stash for whenever thing goes wrong, not for Serene use.
It costs 1 GCU every time Kyoclone dies, but she can handle it. Getting too ridiculous with it might have morale implications, but a scouting effort that causes just a few deaths should be manageable.2a: Investigation by Kyoclone seems only possible direct scouting approach... but I doubt Kyouko can handle doing this more than once in a month.
If the battle last turn was any indication, then we won't be able to ignore the companions. I estimate that we would need at least two Elite's just to delay them, three to be safe.3c: If it has companions should we try to kill the Eyeball first? Maybe with a delaying action of the Youma companions?
This is a risk, but we haven't yet seen the Eyeball run away. It has overwhelmingly defeated all previous opponents, so why would it be afraid? I would be willing to bet that we can engage it at least once. If it manages to escape (e.g. by shooting the interdiction device), then subsequent attacks would be more iffy. We should try things like luring or ambushing only if the first attempt fails.Then I suddenly thought of a big problem that makes Plan Frontal Assault too risky. The range of the interdiction device is much smaller than the Eyeball's, meaning that it could still teleport when is sees us coming.
Risk 4: What if the Eyeball senses us coming and teleports away before we can reach it with the interdiction field?
I was responding to @Powerofmind's claim that poachers would prevent the DS from coming back down to 0 next month. Lower DS provide less protection from that, but also require less protection.Unsure what this was responding too. If you meant greens hunting down to zero DS, then I'd point out that the highest DS number being seriously suggested is 18 DS.
As you yourself sayOkay for instance if we take DS 10 to be 0 and DS40 to be 100 that gives a simple exponential curve of impossible. Since a simple exponential curve can't ever hit zero.
It's only approximately zero, and you can get a simple exponential curve from DS 10 as any positive number. I picked the largest value that could reasonably be rounded down to zero (which you told us we could do as an OOC statement) which gives an upper bound for exponential curves below DS 40. You could put something faster growing in the exponent, but that just makes everything below DS 40 safer then it would have been.Though this isn't even accounting for the fact you don't have two accurate points. You have two approximate points.
Even if you did that it would hardly change the results. 16% of seeing one Youma at DS 20, rather than 14%.Not to mention at this point I'm tempted to make "approximately" be a political approximate and hilarious understatement just to fuck with you. Something along the lines of DS40 being actually averaging 1.49 and rounded down to 1 would hardly even be political level approximation.
Plan 1 is foolish, even Helix said so. It is the 'probably succeed with horrible casualties' option, and we shouldn't do it on purpose.I actually was trying to "Batman" some ideas on how to attack the Eyeball, and came up with somethings we probably want to research.
For the first attack plan I decided to start with something basic:
Plan 1: Frontal Assault
Teleport as close to the Eyeball as we can safely. Run in to try and engage it, while triggering the interdiction device, and hit it with as many attacks as we can until it's dead.
Risks:
1: What if the Eyeball is not alone?
2: What abilities do the Eyeball (and companions) have, and do we have any counters?
3: This seems unorganized, can we optimize?
Counters:
1a: Scouting the Eyeball patterns. Is it ever alone?
1b: If not, does it ever change it's companions? Are some of those a better match up for us?
1c: Since it is now responding to our actions, can we lure it somewhere?
2a: Investigation by Kyoclone seems only possible direct scouting approach... but I doubt Kyouko can handle doing this more than once in a month.
2b: Maybe other know something? Review Nagoya files. Do any of our Tokyo girls know anything?
2c: Maybe the Enlightened can help?
3a: Organize into sub-squads, what is the best mixture of girls?
3b: Perhaps assign specific missions to different groups? With backups/reserves?
3c: If it has companions should we try to kill the Eyeball first? Maybe with a delaying action of the Youma companions?
Then I suddenly thought of a big problem that makes Plan Frontal Assault too risky. The range of the interdiction device is much smaller than the Eyeball's, meaning that it could still teleport when is sees us coming.
Risk 4: What if the Eyeball senses us coming and teleports away before we can reach it with the interdiction field?
New plans:
Plan 2: Lure
Try and get the Eyeball to attack us again, just like it did this turn.
Risks:
1: It means that our Lure group is going to be extremely exposed, and has to hold out for Serena and the rest of the team.
2: It means giving up the chance to try and attack when it is vulnerable, instead we will be allowing it to pick it's companions. Not good allowing your opponent a choice.
Plan 3: Ambush
Identify when the Eyeball is most vulnerable. An initial stealth force sneaks the interdiction device in close enough to be in range (but not right up on it). Turns it on just after the main strike force teleports in. Then try and hide/dodge from the Eyeball until the cavalry can arrive and do a full strike on the Eyeball.
Risks:
1: Initial stealth group is rather exposed (though not as much as a lure plan)
2: Coordination problems, how does the main group and the initial group coordinate?
3: Is stealth even potentially effective against the Eyeball? What kind of longer lasting stealth boosts can we provide?
4: What if the Eyeball is smart enough to recognize the magical signature of the interdiction device, and knows to run away from it? Can we conceal it's presence?
Counters:
1: Need to think about composition of this group quite a bit. Risa vs battery issue?
2: Telepaths maybe? Otherwise we will have to depend on synchronized watches? Does the miasma de-synchronize watches?
3: Needs testing. Needs brainstorming.
4: This is a big problem. Needs practice.
That last one on the list makes me feel like an extra month may really be necessary, as without a way to hide the interdiction device, I don't think we can succeed at all.
No, with a side of fuck no. Those are morale 0 girls. Don't force them to work with Serena unless you plan on forcing them to live with her forever, too.Wait, wait...
What if...
What if we had the untrained girls hunt with Serena...
We could front load it with untrained greens at first, and then the untrained vets, followed by trained greens.
All of them have not had any exposure to Serena yet, unlike our trained vets, so that would be possible. And Serena's aura ought to make hunting so safe that even the lack of training should not be an issue...
I wonder if Serena's aura is large enough to allow something like pair hunting with in it, instead of forcing everyone to hunt as a single pack...
@inverted_helix Serena's thoughts on this hunting tactic?
Maybe stop telling him the secret math that you don't know is wrong because X Y and Z, despite not knowing if it's actually A B and C, and he'll stop trying to fuck with it to spite you (and us by proxy).Also, why are you actively trying to make your world incomprehensible? If you didn't want us formulating statistical models, you shouldn't have given us enough information to make one in the first place.
Enough has been said to figure out an upper bound to the calculation. @inverted_helix even straight up admitted to originally planning to use a straight forward exponential. He's explicitly considering changing it specifically to fuck with us. Frankly, I don't see much reason to care about a universe whose rules are explicitly "fuck you for trying to understand it". Why even bother making plans?Maybe stop telling him the secret math that you don't know is wrong because X Y and Z, despite not knowing if it's actually A B and C, and he'll stop trying to fuck with it to spite you (and us by proxy).
It costs 1 GCU every time Kyoclone dies, but she can handle it. Getting too ridiculous with it might have morale implications, but a scouting effort that causes just a few deaths should be manageable.
If the battle last turn was any indication, then we won't be able to ignore the companions. I estimate that we would need at least two Elite's just to delay them, three to be safe.
This is a risk, but we haven't yet seen the Eyeball run away. It has overwhelmingly defeated all previous opponents, so why would it be afraid? I would be willing to bet that we can engage it at least once. If it manages to escape (e.g. by shooting the interdiction device), then subsequent attacks would be more iffy. We should try things like luring or ambushing only if the first attempt fails.
Enough has been said to figure out an upper bound to the calculation. @inverted_helix even straight up admitted to originally planning to use a straight forward exponential. He's explicitly considering changing it specifically to fuck with us. Frankly, I don't see much reason to care about a universe whose rules are explicitly "fuck you for trying to understand it". Why even bother making plans?
Plan 1 is foolish, even Helix said so. It is the 'probably succeed with horrible casualties' option, and we shouldn't do it on purpose.
Plan 2 is rough, but is likely the only possible choice. Something I've pointed out at least five times now without anybody so much as arguing against it is that there is a greater than 50/50 chance that the beholder has a hard limit on teleportation speed, probably because it can't disable it's interdiction often enough to use it tactically. When it attacked Kyoclone's team, it was outrun by it's youma aids (both non-teleporters, or deliberately not teleporting, which also lends credence to total teleport denial, not just meguca) and did not follow with a teleport. In fact, when the survivors made it to a safe observation distance, the beholder stuck around for several minutes before teleporting out.
With a likely time-locked teleportation window, it stands to reason that the beholder is at it's weakest shortly after teleporting, and thus the lure is the ideal plan to ensure it dies without having to make a 50 km dash through town to chase it. I have little faith that our interdictor will survive one if it's ports, since the Hiko interdictor is prone to overloading from more powerful teleports, but it can likely shorten the teleport distance considerably if the beholder can break through it.
Plan 3 is plan 2, but unless we can definitively know that it's teleported very recently, it will likely overload our interdictor if it tries to run (and it's human intelligence so it likely will try should we swarm it). If it survives an ambush, which is more likely than surviving the lure, it will not be so easy to catch again.
Or you could assume it's not a purely instinctual beast, which has also been repeated, and it's human level intelligence lends to the thought that it's not smart to attack organized groups in mass. When it formed, the class 3's had basically already toppled the pre-existing meguca power structure, so it's probably never tried to attack foreign girls that are generally grouped in the fifties or more. Additionally, why leave the main hunting ground when it needs a certain concentration of edible girls to survive? Finally, maybe the comment I've made some dozen times that it can only teleport once every ten or fifteen minutes is more than a random guess, and it can't risk going 50 km out of it's seat of power only to be swarmed to death before it can escape.
The exponential does not have to be all that complicated to screw up your "upper bound" calculations. y=e.02x-1.221 would yield a rate of 0.0004 at DS=10 and 1.0045 at DS=40. And 0.270825 at DS=20. That would be the odds of a youma spawn in each territory.Enough has been said to figure out an upper bound to the calculation. @inverted_helix even straight up admitted to originally planning to use a straight forward exponential. He's explicitly considering changing it specifically to fuck with us. Frankly, I don't see much reason to care about a universe whose rules are explicitly "fuck you for trying to understand it". Why even bother making plans?
I want to scout this month and attack next month. And the thing about Kyoclone being a "disposable" scout is mostly based on this:That's making a very dangerous assumption that is not in evidence. The flavor text implies that it incapacitates Kyouko a bit (meaning we probably should not try a suicide scout and an attack using Kyouko in the same month).
I wouldn't want to push the "disposable elite" thing too far, but a scouting run which would run the risk of Kyoclone dying at most twice before aborting? Should easily be doable. If Kyouko needs a few days to fully recover from the backlash, that would be covered.Kyoclone gives you guys so many more options in just about everything that it's ridiculous. I mean a disposable elite, just add cubes is so powerful just because you can throw her into suicide missions.
I feel like her bonus has really helped prop your regime up.
Maybe it would run. But we haven't ever seen it run before. Any "caution" it displays could just as easily be explained by it being lazy and having a preference for hunting nearby. I venture that it would at least want to test the waters before fleeing (confident in its ability to teleport away at the slightest sign of danger), and that would give us enough time to bring up the teleportation interdiction. Maybe it wouldn't work. But I think that it's at least worth a shot.That's a strange assumption. We know that it held off on attacking the last organized resistance in Tokyo for awhile, until it was able to herd together enough Youma to attack as a group.
If a group of 6, or even 12 girls are attacking it, then yes, I expect it will not run away.
If a group of 60 to 70 girls are charging towards it, I expect it will try to run. It's got human level intelligence, and while humans have been known to ignore odds and be reckless, the Eyeball has never shown that tendency.
Alright, and I was just pointing out that even Helix doesn't suggest plan 1. Not saying you preferred it, or something, just that as far as options go it's the worst in the pack and is the ultimate in last resorts.Dude... I started out with the simplest plan as a starting point. Then I identify the problems with it, correct for those problems, and repeat.
You know, that's how planning is supposed to work.
I suppose I could just do it all in my head and ignore everyone else, but I figured it might be useful to have the whole player base participating in that refinement process.
1: Just because people aren't arguing with you does not mean you are right.
2: Your arguments for this are weak. I don't know where you are getting this 50/50 chance, but even if that is right, then that is a 50% chance that you are wrong.
3: We don't know why the Eyeball waited around afterwards, it could just be that it was waiting to see if we came back - a typical reaction of someone guarding a location against invaders.
4: Remember that Kyouko's team had the teleport interdiction device and the Eyeball (and companions) may not have known that it was gone.
Understand, that I expect that it does use total teleport denial, not just for meguca, but we are not certain of this yet.
Additionally, it is possible, maybe even probable that there is some limit on teleportation speed, since there is a similar limit on most meguca teleporters - but recall that there is not for Seto, so it may depend on the Eyeball's teleport level... which is likely to be very high.
Okay, now you just made a leap of logic that is not in evidence at all.
On what basis would a recent teleport make the Eyeball weaker?
Secondly, you have completely ignored the primary problem with the Lure plan, which I explicitly pointed out.
The Eyeball is not going to attack a group of 50 girls (not unless it brings along 10 Youma with it, which it very well might do). The Lure plan requires exposing a a weker group of girls as the lure, and then teleporting the main group in, and then running a 50 km dash to the lure group before they all get killed.
That 50 km dash is a restriction on us no matter what we do.
We are fully dependent on the interdiction device fizzling at least one of the Eyeball's teleports. Otherwise the interdiction device is useless and pointless, and we maight as well give up on Tokyo because there will be no way to win.
NO WAY TO WIN.
You can not defeat a beefy teleporting healer that can always just retreat and heal. That's the kind of tactical impossibility that makes a game pointless, so I see no reason to worry about it, because if that is the scenario we are facing then this is just a Kobiyashi Maru and I see no point in playing a game like that.
Furthermore, it's the Lure plan that will only work once, because once we do it, it will know not to fall for the lure again. It's the Ambush plan that could possibly be retried.
Alright. First point defeated. Helix already revealed that the second was the reason for that, so it's not like I'm going to defend it. After all, I was just starting with the simplest idea as a starting point...This is factually untrue.
We know that there was still organized resistance to the Youma in Tokyo, and the Eyeball was instrumental in destroying that organization. We got a rumor about it when it happened.
It did so by getting all the Youma to attack together. Which it very well might try in the next couple months in the Magical girl population in Tokyo falls much further.
Knock this shit off, please. Insulting people whose positions you don't agree with is an excellent way to actively shit up the thread.
Shockingly, we were able to kill the beholder before we even had Serena,