Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

[inverted_helix]

@inverted_helix - What rules should we adhere to as far as splitting up time in any of the above manner?

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I'd let you get away with splitting it that way. Or even just counting it as hunting harder in the days around it to maximize use time of the armor (assuming you can free up the meguca to have them available in addition to hunting, which shouldn't be a problem).

It does, and clan governments are known for being very decentralized... unless they have a very charismatic leader at their center, in which case they can become even more effective than a dictatorship, since those underneath are all doing their best to please the leader without needing extensive oversight.

Functionally, I'd guess this would result in something like CKII where you have feudal lords underneath our primary character, and we then have to worry about their motivations and what they are doing, and how loyal they are to us.

Having Mami as the head reduces the complexity a lot since loyalty among her inner circle is not a big issue right now. Although differences in opinion might matter (for example, Kyouko's resistance to Mami's ideals).

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(Doylist perspective) I'm not really sure I'd like taking the quest that direction though. It would require much more emotion driven writing which is where I'm weakest. I used so much math to provide the skeleton for this quest because I'm terrible with character based writing.

Though I will admit that you're right that in a system where you have tight personal loyalty between the underlings and the queen it can work. Though it would also give you much less direct control over operations, and a much lower budget and control over circumstances. That has pros and cons.

I don't know it it's the size making problems, or if it's more that the Tokyo crisis is causing real problems.

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It's more that you expanded so quickly. You've nearly tripled in size over 3 months. If you'd done that over 2-3 years you might be able to hold a flat society together. But a flat society cannot grow this fast without coming apart at some of the seams.

@inverted_helix I vaguely recall that we got some information about Youma spawning happening at an accelerating rate. Did we get that from Nagoya? I think they gave us a bunch of info on class 3 demons didn't they? Did that tell us how the risk of a Youma spawning increases with DS? Is it 1% risk at 11 DS? And then 8% at 18 DS? Or was it more like 0.1% at 11 DS, and 4% at 18 DS? Did they give us a rough estimate of when it becomes dangerous?

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The Junta could provide much more exacting data on this, and Hiko could provide some vague data (though whether she'd give it to you is questionable). Nagoya on the other hand is very draconian about preventing the possibility of Youma spawns, they don't have data on the probabilities because they don't ever push the limit.

OK, I vaguely remember doing stuff with the idea of having an experienced vet leading a team allowing the pack to use the experienced multiplier. However I have no idea where to start looking to see if I'm even remembering that correctly. Do you have a link? Or @inverted_helix - Did you allow this?

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I remember allowing them to use the other bonuses to demon finding, but I'm not sure about the experience bonus. I know for sure that I didn't allow the casualty reduction mods though.

...It's been a while for me too.

However the quote is ambiguous about one thing: "one per territory unit". The quote doesn't define a territory unit, unless it's 1 per cube capacity value (a reasonable assumption),

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This is accurate, though the rest isn't quite. The quote was intentionally vague, though the territory unit wasn't meant to be, exponential can mean a lot of different functions.

We've even been around 18 DS in the past, we just didn't get any spawns (that was before we had good DS measurement).

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OOC you didn't actually roll then. It was one of those slowly introduce mechanics over time things that many many games do. Keep in mind that was when introducing the demon strength mechanic was happening, if I brought these in at same time it would have made it much more confusing.

Also something that I remembered and never replied to:

We should ask Nagoya for supplies to aid us in the fight (smoke canisters, flash-bangs, shrapnel and incendiary grenades). They should have the money and the underworld connections to supply just about anything within reason.

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Assuming you requested these you'd get the answer that they have the underworld connections to buy them straight out, but the prices would be significant. Not just in money either. It takes substantial magical effort to make them function inside a miasma. They normally just fail to detonate entirely. Though they've cracked that problem through enchantments, to a degree.

So Flash, fragmentation, and incendiary for $250 each (yes I know official government spending on these is much lower, with some saying fragmentation are as cheap as $6 in production materials costs, but black market prices on these are around $200-250, so cope), smoke $50. Plus 1 GCU per 100. In their experience in combating demons they're much less effective at dealing damage than similar magical weapons would be, but if you use enough it can still help.

 

[Kinematics]

1: What morale hit from over hunting? We never got a morale hit from overhunting in the past. Why would we suddenly get one now?

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For explicitly overhunting into youma-generating range, I should say.

3: What magical costs of killing the Youma? Usually a Youma produces more cubes than it costs to kill.

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We won't get the Incubator bonus for killing them (I'm pretty sure it was specifically stated that deliberately generated youma would not be granted the bounty reward), but yes, it's likely that any setup cost (eg: the various support team magic that we've put into hunting the youma in Tokyo) won't exceed the nominal drops from a youma, so long as we don't end up with an especially vicious specimen (such as the barrier-breaker we encountered before). As long as the youma don't get the chance to kill any of our girls, they should be relatively trivial to put down with Serena.

 

[Skelm]

And, as you recall, the chance approaches 1 at 40+ DS.

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Note that it's an average spawn count of 1, not a spawn probability of 1. The actual distribution of spawns presumably follows a Poisson distribution, which would give a 37% chance of no spawns and a 26% chance of 2 or more, per unit of territory.

According to Wikipedia, the sum of multiple independent Poisson distributions is approximately the same as a single Poisson distribution whose average is the sum of the averages of it's components. We know the average spawn count follows an exponential curve and one of the points on that curve, so by picking estimates of the negligible spawn rate at DS 10 (which we were told not to worry about) we can determine the spawn rate at any DS. If we say 1 in 10,000 per territory month (so about 1% for a 100 unit territory), then at DS 20 across our entire territory we would have a 14.81% chance of seeing a Youma, 1.31% of two, and negligible chance of more. That seems pretty safe for us.

The Junta could provide much more exacting data on this, and Hiko could provide some vague data (though whether she'd give it to you is questionable). Nagoya on the other hand is very draconian about preventing the possibility of Youma spawns, they don't have data on the probabilities because they don't ever push the limit.

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Will Kyubey give us more precise numbers than we got earlier?

 

[Powerofmind]

It's either risk youma spawns, or go in against the Beholder with likely insufficient intel and take ruinous casualties.

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It's already been discussed that we can't feasibly acquire more information aside from the Kyoclone tests, which also happen to be very easy and short tests, at best. Regardless, we will have intel on the beholder, and it will be the same whether we do it at the end of the month or the beginning of the next. Waiting merely adds more chances for negative events to demand cubes, money, or girls, at the dubious proposition that waiting (despite sending Kyoclone to test the beholder, which will affect evolutionary adaptations) will alter the beholder's behavior enough that it will be alone when we encounter it.

Skelm found the quote. It's not linear risk growth, it's exponential, so lower levels are much less riskier than the higher ones. Additionally the check appears to be once a month (as would make sense considering it's a monthly DS shift thing). And, as you recall, the chance approaches 1 at 40+ DS.

So that makes me feel that anything below the 1/3 mark (or +20 DS) isn't terribly risky. We've even been around 18 DS in the past, we just didn't get any spawns (that was before we had good DS measurement). Consdiering how bad our luck has been lately I suppose we could get one or two Youma spawns, but Serena should be able to handle that much easily.

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Not so. The average approaches 1 at 40+. This cannot be possible unless Helix rolls more than once per month for Youma generation. The most likely multi-dice spawn check is weekly (not much chance for ridiculously unlucky spawn rates, but still capable of creating a circumstance where a number greater than 1 is possible to ensure it can be the average). I can't quite recall the math on that (it's been six years since I took statistics), but I think that puts each chance somewhere around 33-40% individually. Assuming a linear progression of each chance, which would exponentially increase the average number of Youma spawned per month, I'd put each chance at 5% starting from the bottom, scaling linearly to 35-40%. Using this preliminary guess, the chance that at least one Youma spawns above 10 DS starts at 19%.

ote that it's an average spawn count of 1, not a spawn probability of 1. The actual distribution of spawns presumably follows a Poisson distribution, which would give a 37% chance of no spawns and a 26% chance of 2 or more, per unit of territory.

According to Wikipedia, the sum of multiple independent Poisson distributions is approximately the same as a single Poisson distribution whose average is the sum of the averages of it's components. We know the average spawn count follows an exponential curve and one of the points on that curve, so by picking estimates of the negligible spawn rate at DS 10 (which we were told not to worry about) we can determine the spawn rate at any DS. If we say 1 in 10,000 per territory month (so about 1% for a 100 unit territory), then at DS 20 across our entire territory we would have a 14.81% chance of seeing a Youma, 1.31% of two, and negligible chance of more. That seems pretty safe for us.

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Or this.

In either case, the chance that a Youma spawns from overhunting is a minimum of one in seven. Overhunting both main territories means the chance increases to something closer to one in four. We would then also have to consider our needs the following month, and overhunting the month before means DS won't automatically decay back to 0 for full hunting ability in the future.

 

[inverted_helix]

Will Kyubey give us more precise numbers than we got earlier?

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No, not in his interest.

We know the average spawn count follows an exponential curve and one of the points on that curve, so by picking estimates of the negligible spawn rate at DS 10 (which we were told not to worry about) we can determine the spawn rate at any DS.

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You can't determine the equation of a nonlinear function from only 2 points. An infinite number of curves pass through any two points.

 

[TheEyes]

This interpretation doesn't really mesh with her being able to pull objects out that she put into her shield in alternate erased timelines. The things she put in from alternate timeliens she can't reach back to that point in history for because that point in history no longer exists.

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Homura doesn't time travel, remember? She dimension-hops to a universe that is a month back in time. That's why there are different loops where Kyouske plays a different instrument, or other events happen differently that have nothing to do with Homura: they're not the same universe. It's also why Madoka has such incredible potential by the time the events of the show roll around: the moment Homura leaves a universe for another one some portion of the karmic weight of that entire universe moves with Homura to the new universe, all tied to Madoka because Madoka's fate is the fulcrum that determines whether or not Homura will loop or not.

In that vein, it actually makes more sense for Homura's powers to no be some sort of link to an incredibly exotic null-entropy universe, but an offshoot of her dimensional powers. Under this hypothesis, every time Homura "puts something in her shield" she's really drawing a dimensional link to her future self, effectively handing the object to her future self who is reaching in to grab it. This eliminates the need for a weird pocket universe inside Homura's shield, with objects instead effectively falling through a one-way wormhole between Homura's past self and present self.

It's a reactive force to your efforts impacting it. Earlier you'd achieved less, now it's more inclined to act.

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Um, but our efforts haven't impacted the Eyeball at all, though. Hell, we had more of an effect the first time we made attacks, nearly two months ago; this time we only killed, what, 4-5 youma?

Meh, whatever. I'm still gawking at the massive 40 mile (~64 km) scry and single-teleport range that the Eyeball now apparently has. I should note that this means it's effectively been watching us the entire time, since we've been using Mt. Tanzawa as one of our staging grounds and that mountain is "only" 30-ish miles from downtown Tokyo, which puts it easily inside the Eyeball's single-teleport range too. That was, after all, the entire reason we assumed Odwara was outside the Eyeball's scry-port range, and therefore safe to hunt, since it's further from downtown Tokyo than the staging area we've been using for the last 4 months.

 

[inverted_helix]

Homura doesn't time travel, remember? She dimension-hops to a universe that is a month back in time. That's why there are different loops where Kyouske plays a different instrument, or other events happen differently that have nothing to do with Homura: they're not the same universe. It's also why Madoka has such incredible potential by the time the events of the show roll around: the moment Homura leaves a universe for another one some portion of the karmic weight of that entire universe moves with Homura to the new universe, all tied to Madoka because Madoka's fate is the fulcrum that determines whether or not Homura will loop or not.

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I've never really liked that explanation for time travel in any series. Anything you could change to cause a universe to develop a month slower than the previous is going to change far more of human history.

Do they actually specify it as dimension travel? Because that doesn't mesh neatly with her ability to stop time like time travel powers would. I mean if everything connects to a dimension travel capability, why would she have the ability to stop time?

In that vein, it actually makes more sense for Homura's powers to no be some sort of link to an incredibly exotic null-entropy universe, but an offshoot of her dimensional powers. Under this hypothesis, every time Homura "puts something in her shield" she's really drawing a dimensional link to her future self, effectively handing the object to her future self who is reaching in to grab it. This eliminates the need for a weird pocket universe inside Homura's shield, with objects instead effectively falling through a one-way wormhole between Homura's past self and present self.

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But this makes it necessary that everything she puts in must be used at some point in the future of her timeline. Any time she tries to put away something in her shield which future her never uses it would fail to go in at all. Or perhaps explode in some sort of matter annihilation event.

Um, but our efforts haven't impacted the Eyeball at all, though. Hell, we had more of an effect the first time we made attacks, nearly two months ago; this time we only killed, what, 4-5 youma?

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It's more about the population of the food supply than the Youma.

Meh, whatever. I'm still gawking at the massive 40 mile (~64 km) scry and single-teleport range that the Eyeball now apparently has.

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That wasn't anything new. It was hinted at before, I was quite careful to hint you were already in its range. No one picked up on it.

 

[Quine]

You can't determine the equation of a nonlinear function from only 2 points. An infinite number of curves pass through any two points.

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Only one exponential function passes through two given points, though, if "exponential" is to be taken literally.

 

[Skelm]

You can't determine the equation of a nonlinear function from only 2 points. An infinite number of curves pass through any two points.

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Exponential usually means functions of the form f(x)=e^(ax+b), which are uniquely determined by two points. Of course, there are some contexts where the exponent can be any polynomial, but assuming the first and second derivatives of whatever function you're using are non-negative, the linear model I'm using will at worst over-estimate our risk.

In either case, the chance that a Youma spawns from overhunting is a minimum of one in seven. Overhunting both main territories means the chance increases to something closer to one in four. We would then also have to consider our needs the following month, and overhunting the month before means DS won't automatically decay back to 0 for full hunting ability in the future.

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One in seven is the upper bound of risk over the whole territory at DS 20. And DS drops by 20 in one month if you don't hunt it at all, so as long as we stay below that (and successfully break into Tokyo next month) we can expect the DS to decay back to normal levels right away.

 

[inverted_helix]

Only one exponential function passes through two given points, though, if "exponential" is to be taken literally.

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Exponential usually means functions of the form f(x)=e^(ax+b), which are uniquely determined by two points. Of course, there are some contexts where the exponent can be any polynomial, but assuming the first and second derivatives of whatever function you're using are non-negative, the linear model I'm using will at worst over-estimate our risk.

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Exponential function - Wikipedia
f(x) = b^(x/d+c)
You only know f(10) ~ 0 (and not an exact figure there), and another vague value for f(40). You don't know b, c, or d so I can fit basically whatever I want.

I can fit an arbitrary number of results this way. Let alone when you get into complex exponential functions where it's actually along the lines of
f(x) = b^[x*cos(x)]
Or ridiculous options of that sort.


I am now tempted to generate the most enormous equation that could possibly be considered an exponential function.

 

[Elder Haman]

Well, back to the slave pits today. Hopefully there will be no new crisis, and I'll be able to spend some time mathing out various hunting plans.

Kyoclone scouting plan:
Send in Kyoclone (for scouting) and Taya (for Clairvoyance) and Seto (for Teleportation) and one or two stealth specialists. Seto and Taya will do the ball trick to locate the Beholder. This is purely a scouting trip, so If the group are surprised by any youma, they will immediately teleport away. Taya will carefully follow Kyoclone's progress (if this is possible through the miasma), and after each test Kyoclone will run away from the beholder until she syncs up with Kyouko so that we find out the results of the test. Things to test when Kyoclone faces the Beholder:
1. How large is the miasma (external and internal)? What features does it hold? Do those features correspond at all to the outside world?
2. What is its maximum attacking range? Does it get more accurate as it gets closer?
3. Does it stop attacking or get less accurate if physical barriers (walls and buildings) are interposed?
4. How many attacks/eyes does it have? How long does it take for each attack to recharge?
5. What are the different types/colors of attacks? Does each eye have a unique type of attack, or can each eye make different types of attacks?
6. Is the Beholder fooled by illusions?
7. Do smoke canisters thrown next to the Beholder impede its abilities?
8. Do flash-bangs thrown at the Beholder impede its abilities?
9. Are incendiary or fragmentation grenades effective?
10. How quickly does it regenerate?

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These are some good ideas of what we would like to know. (No hope for the mundane weapons though).

We will need to come up with some more detail on how Kyoclone gets this information though.

We also need to start thinking about what the various options are to an attack on the Eyeball.

 

[Skelm]

f(x) = b^(x/d+c)
You only know f(10) ~ 0 (and not an exact figure there), and another vague value for f(40). You don't know b, c, or d so I can fit basically whatever I want.

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Nope! Changing b here is equivalent to multiplying the exponent part by a constant, so there's only two independent variables. For example:
2^(x) = (e^ln(2))^(x) = e^(ln(2)*x)

I can fit an arbitrary number of results this way. Let alone when you get into complex exponential functions where it's actually along the lines of
f(x) = b^[x*cos(x)]

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It's actually exp(a+bi) = e^(a)*(cos(b) + isin(a)), which isn't really meaningful in this context because probabilities are real numbers.

 

[boonerunner]

Ehh? Serena's friends are all Vets... I guess you mean when they are under her full aura?

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4 of her friends are used to the aura and operate as Elite+ within it. The 2 new girls are still not used to it, so they don't get the bonus. Though they should be close to the point where they are used to it, maybe a little more training will push them over the edge.

Organizing a multitude of outings over an entire month is more effort intensive than you think it is.

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Sure it is if you count the total organization time, but if the problem with one large outing would be that we would have to assign somebody to organize the whole thing, whereas if there are a lot of smaller outings, then each group outing can be arranged by the group leader (e.g. 10 new recruits and their mentor), and each individual outings is easy to arrange and the total organization time can be abstracted away.

Your analysis of the main problem is correct, however I do not think that we need a full month to gather intel and formulate tactics. Even if we can sustain our cube costs another turn, I'm not sure if Tokyo will be able to last long enough without us killing the beholder so we can go on a Youma hunting spree.

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Tokyo survived last month, and that month started with more youma (hunting solo), and a large number of desperate meguca. During the turn, we killed 4 youma, forced them to hunt less efficiently, and allowed a large number of meguca to escape. The girls remaining in Tokyo at this point are the heroes and the very new contractees. Things will be rough on them, but overall things should be better in Tokyo and the surrounding area than they have been.

Kofu is the area that will have it the worst (since DS is high due to the fiasco with the 3 elites), but they ought to mostly okay as long as we give them a bit of assistance.

Standard RT on North/South, none in Odawara because we don't have the profile data to do that there.

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I wasn't aware that we needed "profile data" in order to do Rotating Tactics. I thought it was more about rotating between various different hunting styles (ranged/melee/magic/etc) and locations. I mean, profiling an area so that we know where common demon spawning spots are would probably improve the hunting rate, but we don't really do that as far as I know.

It is, and I don't like it, but most of them are untrained and/or green, which makes them poor choices for hunting if we're doing the RT hunt. The few experienced are a leftover buffer to allow moving things around. Jobs is fine as a backup, but hoping for more ideas on other creative things they could do (ie: morale).

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Do note that morale ought to improve for the Tokyo refugees simply by no longer being in Tokyo and being a part of a group where (as a general rule) nobody dies.

If we don't get more refugees, which we will.

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Most of the girls who want to leave have already left (note that we recruited 40 girls before turn 34, 35 before turn 35, and 27 before turn 36). So the numbers are going down. I estimate 15-20 potential recruits, but also note that they won't require maintenance on this turn.

I'm sensing a lot of reluctance to go above 10 DS, but not really getting any discussion as to why.

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I'm not overly worried about a DS rate that is slightly above 10 (Serena &co can handle a youma in the unlikely event that it spawns). But 10 DS is also the cutoff where it can safely be underhunted next turn by Green pairs (i.e. 10 DS -> 0DS). If we want to maximize the Veterans available next turn, then it would be nice to be able to do the underhunting with Greens.

Also remember that we get fewer cubes on the underhunt if the DS is higher.

One in seven is the upper bound of risk over the whole territory at DS 20. And DS drops by 20 in one month if you don't hunt it at all, so as long as we stay below that (and successfully break into Tokyo next month) we can expect the DS to decay back to normal levels right away.

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We would be going from 0 to 20 DS in this month and 20 to 0 DS in the next month. So there would be approximately the same risk of a youma spawn in either month. And no cubes harvested in the second month. I'm willing to hunt a bit above 10 DS if we really need to, but 20 DS seems a bit too high.

 

[Skelm]

We would be going from 0 to 20 DS in this month and 20 to 0 DS in the next month. So there would be approximately the same risk of a youma spawn in either month. And no cubes harvested in the second month. I'm willing to hunt a bit above 10 DS if we really need to, but 20 DS seems a bit too high.

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It actually only spends half the month over DS 10 in each direction, so the per month figures are still correct. If anything they're too high, since DS 20 would only be a temporary peak.

 

[Elder Haman]

I'm not overly worried about a DS rate that is slightly above 10 (Serena &co can handle a youma in the unlikely event that it spawns). But 10 DS is also the cutoff where it can safely be underhunted next turn by Green pairs (i.e. 10 DS -> 0DS). If we want to maximize the Veterans available next turn, then it would be nice to be able to do the underhunting with Greens.

Also remember that we get fewer cubes on the underhunt if the DS is higher.

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Well, we will have 30 trained greens available (since training will be over). And trained greens hunting in a pack w/ full kevlar can safely harvest 18 DS down to 0 DS.

Of course, most of the cubes next month will have to come from Yokohama. Which means killing the Eyeball, and herding the Youma out of Yokohama, and then harvesting Yokohama with great focus. We might get more out of hunting in Yokohama than under hunting our own area.

 

[Powerofmind]

One in seven is the upper bound of risk over the whole territory at DS 20. And DS drops by 20 in one month if you don't hunt it at all, so as long as we stay below that (and successfully break into Tokyo next month) we can expect the DS to decay back to normal levels right away.

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Not so. We have a poaching problem, and these poachers aren't going to stop because we ask nicely for them to not hunt. They'll throw off the entire plan.

 

[boonerunner]

These are some good ideas of what we would like to know. (No hope for the mundane weapons though).

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According to Nagoya, the mundane weapons are "much less effective at dealing damage than similar magical weapons", but our Veterans will be operating at 50% capacity to begin with, so that might still work out, especially for the girls who lack ranged options. And it's always possible that the Beholder has specifically adapted to counter magical weapons, so that mundane weaponry would be more effective by comparison. But the primary thing that I'm hoping is that the Eyeball will require Line-of-Sight in order to attack effectively, so that smoke grenades will be able to reduce its rate of fire and/or accuracy. It will also reduce our accuracy, of course, but the Beholder is a fairly large target to begin with.

We will need to come up with some more detail on how Kyoclone gets this information though.

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Here's my plan in a little more detail, with some new options added in:

Spoiler: Beholder Scouting Plan

Kyoclone scouting plan: (0.5 Kyoclone, 0.5 Taya, 0.5 Seto, + 2.1 GCU, $1,250)
Purchase 10 smoke grenades and 1 each of the others (if they aren't donated by Nagoya). Send in Kyoclone (for scouting) and Taya (for Clairvoyance) and Seto (for Teleportation). Seto and Taya will do the ball trick to locate the Beholder, then teleport Kyouclone to just outside of its range. This is purely a scouting trip, so if the group are surprised by any youma, they will immediately teleport away. Taya will carefully follow Kyoclone's progress (if this is possible through the miasma), and after each test, Kyoclone will run away from the beholder until she syncs up with Kyouko so that we find out the results of the test. Things to test:
1. Taya verifies the external dimensions of the teleport interdiction and the miasma. This doesn't require scouting the whole thing, just measuring enough to infer the size (assuming that both the interdiction field and miasma are circular).
2. Kyoclone enters the miasma and runs 100m around the perimeter, then exits. Does it appear as if the interior of the miasma is larger than the exterior? What does the inside of the miasma look like? Does it correspond at all to the city outside?
3. Kyoclone approaches in plain sight until the Beholder starts shooting at her, then runs away. How close is it when it starts attacking? How accurate? How much longer does it keep shooting at her? Does it get less accurate as the distance grows? As Kyoclone runs away, she should dodge behind physical barriers (walls and buildings). Does the Beholder stop attacking or get less accurate? What if a smoke grenade is used for cover rather than a physical barrier? Kyoclone exits. Did she notice how many eyes it had? How many different colors of attacks? Kyoclone's observations on these points can be repeated for all of the following tests.
4. Kyoclone approaches in plain sight again, and uses a tandem cast barrier charm. Does it protect against a direct hit? Kyoclone exits.
5. Kyoclone approaches in plain sight again, and focuses on watching the Beholder while gradually moving away as it attacks. If Kyoclone makes illusory copies, does the Beholder shoot at them? How many eyes does it have? What is the recharge time for each eye? Does each eye have a unique type of attack? Kyoclone runs away.
6. Kyoclone approaches until she is close enough to throw a flash grenade, then moves back. Does the light appear to impede the Beholder in any way? Kyoclone runs away.
7. Kyoclone approaches until she is close enough to throw an incendiary grenade and a fragmentation grenade, then moves back. Does either grenade do much damage? Is it visibly regenerating? Kyoclone runs away.

If smoke grenades are effective, Kyoclone should use two to cover her escape during each test. If any test cannot be performed or results are still inconclusive after a short while, Kyoclone will give up on that test and move on to the next one. If Kyoclone dies during any given test, return the next day and try the next test. If Kyoclone dies twice, don't try any more tests.

After the tests are done, is there anything else that was noticed? For instance: how often does the Beholder teleport to close the distance when Kyoclone runs?

 

[Skelm]

Not so. We have a poaching problem, and these poachers aren't going to stop because we ask nicely for them to not hunt. They'll throw off the entire plan.

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They will be stopped by DS 20 demons though.

 

[Aranfan]

Why not not scry the poachers and recruit them?

 

[boonerunner]

Why not not scry the poachers and recruit them?

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It's a lot of area to scry for someone who doesn't want to be found. And we don't actually know that there are any poachers who are still hanging around. They might have been already recruited, or they might have moved on.

 

[inverted_helix]

Nope! Changing b here is equivalent to multiplying the exponent part by a constant, so there's only two independent variables. For example:
2^(x) = (e^ln(2))^(x) = e^(ln(2)*x)

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I'll grant that, but even limiting it to two variables I can make the curve dance all over.

It's actually exp(a+bi) = e^(a)*(cos(b) + isin(a)), which isn't really meaningful in this context because probabilities are real numbers.

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That's easily solved just by limiting the range of possible inputs. Or just using absolute value around it.

Originally I planned on a simple smooth exponential growth function over the range. But now you're encouraging much more diabolical functions. I need to open some textbooks.

I wasn't aware that we needed "profile data" in order to do Rotating Tactics. I thought it was more about rotating between various different hunting styles (ranged/melee/magic/etc) and locations. I mean, profiling an area so that we know where common demon spawning spots are would probably improve the hunting rate, but we don't really do that as far as I know.

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This is actually something I'd account for when you guys try for a hunt that is less impacted by youma and where you have less overkill on number of clairvoyants because you're trying to scry other stuff anyway. Significant bonuses have accrued from profiling of that sort, but they're incorporated in your dispatch bonus. Which would be knocked down significantly. I might also knock off the "Experienced" 10%.

Your dispatched from what I recall (it may have gone a bit different, end result is actually that I should be charging 2.5 clairvoyants on your territory now) went through multiple upgrades.
1 meguca per 10 territory +25%
1 meguca per 10 territory +30% (experienced with process/territory)
1 meguca on a bicycle per 15 territory +30%
1 clairvoyant meguca per 20 territory +30%
1 clairvoyant meguca (advanced area based profiling research) per 30 territory +30%

You can expect in an area where you don't have long term data to be knocked down to 1 clairvoyant per 20 territory and +25% bonus.

 

[Kinematics]

Since we cannot know the exact nature of the chance of youma spawning, I'm just going to mentally put it within a range of 20% to 50%, assuming substantial overhunting in both North and South. A decent chance of at least one, a small chance of two, and a minimal chance of more than two. No point in continuing to argue anything more precise than that.

I'm still gawking at the massive 40 mile (~64 km) scry and single-teleport range that the Eyeball now apparently has. I should note that this means it's effectively been watching us the entire time, since we've been using Mt. Tanzawa as one of our staging grounds and that mountain is "only" 30-ish miles from downtown Tokyo, which puts it easily inside the Eyeball's single-teleport range too.

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Our tandem work has shown that tandem elite casting for clairvoyance/teleporation should be about 50 miles, and that's what it looks like the Beholder's range is (not 40 miles). It makes sense as an expected value for a class 4 approximating tandem class 3's (elites).

Based on checking Google Maps: At a given zoom level, 5 miles = 63 pixels, or 12.5 pixels per mile. 580 pixels from center of Tokyo to Odawara = 46 miles. Mt Hakone (our initial staging point) = 670 pixels = 54 miles out. Mt Tanzawa = 474 pixels = 38 miles out.

Our own tandem range is shorter than that because we don't have two elite teleporters or clairvoyants, but instead have to make do with elite+vet. I believe Taya+vet was working at 40 miles, and couldn't see the Beholder from Mt Hakone. Mt Tanzawa is close enough to that range limit that the Beholder simply being on the "other side" of the center of Tokyo was enough to keep it out of range, as well.

Tokyo survived last month, and that month started with more youma (hunting solo), and a large number of desperate meguca. During the turn, we killed 4 youma, forced them to hunt less efficiently, and allowed a large number of meguca to escape. The girls remaining in Tokyo at this point are the heroes and the very new contractees. Things will be rough on them, but overall things should be better in Tokyo and the surrounding area than they have been.

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Sort of. Population in Tokyo has been dropping by about 100 per month (1000, 900, 800, and now 700). So meguca population dropped by 12.5%, while we killed 4 youma (~13%).

For the class 3's, things are vaguely stable in terms of numbers, but worse in terms of feeding because their hunting tactics have had to change to less efficient forms. That means their net situation is worsening, which increases the odds of them scattering and spreading the youma problem to areas that can't deal with them. Luckily that pressure isn't as bad as it could have been if we hadn't intervened, because there would have been a greater number of youma competing (more effectively) for the same food supply. Still, it will eventually happen.

For the Beholder, it doesn't really care about the class 3's, except insofar as they're useful for keeping the magical girls trapped in the city. All it sees is a continuing drop in the food supply, and is likely to get more aggressive because of that.

So things are better than they could have been, but I wouldn't say that they're better than they were a month ago.

Kofu is the area that will have it the worst (since DS is high due to the fiasco with the 3 elites), but they ought to mostly okay as long as we give them a bit of assistance.

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Yeah, they have maybe 20 meguca. If we give them another 20 cubes this turn (same as last), they should be mostly fine with just defending their territory.

I wasn't aware that we needed "profile data" in order to do Rotating Tactics. I thought it was more about rotating between various different hunting styles (ranged/melee/magic/etc) and locations. I mean, profiling an area so that we know where common demon spawning spots are would probably improve the hunting rate, but we don't really do that as far as I know.

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The profiling we did was to improve our understanding of the territory we were hunting, in order to make our rotating tactics more effective. I'm pretty sure we'll need to do something similar for any significant new area we incorporate in order to get the best results, though I'm not sure what we'd be limited to (I don't remember if it would only exclude IRT, or also Standard RT, limiting us to just Basic RT). @inverted_helix?

Of course, most of the cubes next month will have to come from Yokohama. Which means killing the Eyeball, and herding the Youma out of Yokohama, and then harvesting Yokohama with great focus. We might get more out of hunting in Yokohama than under hunting our own area.

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Even if we don't go above 10 DS this month, we're only going to be harvesting about 50 cubes from our own territory next month. With the high DS overhunt, we'll probably only be looking at about two dozen cubes from our territory. Yokohama is going to be an absolute necessity either way, though we can harvest something approaching 300 cubes before we even really make a dent in the DS.

The main problem with the Yokohama hunt is going to be the diplomatic issues that crop up. With Odawara, there was basically no one else there. Yokohama is dense enough that there's going to be a fair few meguca in the area, which means we'll have to mix in diplomatic actions in order to be able to hunt there without too much problem (aside from the youma). That's another reason I'm somewhat leery of going after the Beholder next month; I don't want to do the Beholder and massive make-up hunting and put out diplomatic fires all at the same time, particularly when we can't afford not to go all-out on the hunting to make up the cube shortfall.

 

[inverted_helix]

Our tandem work has shown that tandem elite casting for clairvoyance/teleporation should be about 50 miles, and that's what it looks like the Beholder's range is (not 40 miles). It makes sense as an expected value for a class 4 approximating tandem class 3's (elites).

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Yes, that was the primary hint that Beholder had always been in range.

Based on checking Google Maps: At a given zoom level, 5 miles = 63 pixels, or 12.5 pixels per mile. 580 pixels from center of Tokyo to Odawara = 46 miles. Mt Hakone (our initial staging point) = 670 pixels = 54 miles out. Mt Tanzawa = 474 pixels = 38 miles out.

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You do realize google maps has a measuring tool that you can use to draw a line and it tells you the distance? A lot easier than counting pixels.

Yeah, they have maybe 20 meguca. If we give them another 20 cubes this turn (same as last), they should be mostly fine with just defending their territory.

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You didn't actually give them 20 GCU last turn. You devoted that much mainly to supplying refugees that passed through Kofu and Numazu, with Kyouko giving Kofu directly around 5 GCU that she had to give.

The profiling we did was to improve our understanding of the territory we were hunting, in order to make our rotating tactics more effective. I'm pretty sure we'll need to do something similar for any significant new area we incorporate in order to get the best results, though I'm not sure what we'd be limited to (I don't remember if it would only exclude IRT, or also Standard RT, limiting us to just Basic RT). @inverted_helix?

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From what I recall, understanding your personal territory was represented mainly in steady increases in harvest efficiency. Standard RT vs Basic RT was just a thorough exploration of rates they responded to various tactics, while IRT was self sabotaging more. While you'll experience some reduction in effectiveness in other territories from subtle differences it won't be that big. Maybe knock RT back to the basic RT .66 rate instead of Standard RT .6.



I'm still contemplating how I can give you more things to spend manpower on. Currently just contemplating steadily increasing your monetary costs to more realistic levels of expenses. Thereby requiring more meguca spent on making money.

Also all complaints about Serena being too weak will now be burned after realizing just how huge an impact she makes on your capabilities and survival rate.

 

[Kinematics]

You do realize google maps has a measuring tool that you can use to draw a line and it tells you the distance? A lot easier than counting pixels.

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If I could find it, I would use it. I've never been able to get anything useful working in Google Maps, so I have to transfer to another image program to do measuring.

You didn't actually give them 20 GCU last turn. You devoted that much mainly to supplying refugees that passed through Kofu and Numazu, with Kyouko giving Kofu directly around 5 GCU that she had to give.

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OK. Still decent for a population of ~20, and I still expect to spend similar amounts this turn.

From what I recall, understanding your personal territory was represented mainly in steady increases in harvest efficiency. Standard RT vs Basic RT was just a thorough exploration of rates they responded to various tactics, while IRT was self sabotaging more. While you'll experience some reduction in effectiveness in other territories from subtle differences it won't be that big. Maybe knock RT back to the basic RT .66 rate instead of Standard RT .6.

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Yeah, the profiling was probably more about the dispatching, that you posted just above. I think we were doing both at the same time, which is probably why I mixed them up. Can see about the standard vs basic when we get to that, later.

 

[inverted_helix]

If I could find it, I would use it. I've never been able to get anything useful working in Google Maps, so I have to transfer to another image program to do measuring.

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Hmm that's unfortunate. I've been using it because it's easy to edit and show various information on it. Plus can zoom in and out as needed.