Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

What should I do regarding a change in system?

  • Notgreat's proposed simplification of hunting, leave rest intact.

    Votes: 5 55.6%
  • Chapter system vastly simplifying everything.

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
Buying Kyouko's church cannot possibly be a cost effective way to boost morale when most of the refugees are still at the level where not dying is a significant boost. Just set up some group therapy sessions or something.

I would still like to send some people into stasis so we don't need to buy so many cubes.
I am against putting girls in storage.
Firstly, if you'd read helix's posts regarding stasis, you'd know we need the land to set this up, an industrial refrigerator, or permission from Nagoya to make use of theirs (which will also cost money). Our options are spend money to spend less cubes, or spend money to get more cubes. One of them also lowers morale and reduces our manpower for the month (that would be the stasis plan).
You know, I'm wondering exactly how big the morale hit would (or should) be in our case. Consider that the refugees we have are the stubborn ones, the patriots and the heroes who decided to stick it out in Tokyo even when Nagoya offered the stasis option to them before. These are the girls who wanted to help, before they finally lost their nerve and fled. Now they're joining up with the group who is kicking over the hornet's nest, making real change and bringing hope where there wasn't any before... except since none of them are trained all we're doing with them is throwing them into mentorship programs, basically telling them that not only can they do nothing to help, but even joining up with the Serene is a burden because you're taking trained soldiers off of the battlefield to babysit them.

In that vein, proposing a month of explicitly temporary stasis starts to look a lot better. Now, the refugees aren't being a burden; they are making a sacrifice for the good of Tokyo and those who are risking their lives to save it. Throw in a few other concrete steps to ensure the fairness of the arrangement--maybe limit the time spent "under" so that the girls are brought out for a day once a week, and maybe put one or two of our own vets under with them as a show of solidarity and support--and it might even be a morale booster, especially for the ones at Morale 0, and would still save us 5.3 GCU for every 7 girls we put "under" in this way.

Sorry I don't have the time to detail the alternative myself; still super-busy with work+school.

Also decided to take the super easy route on developing techs for other groups. Went to the 3.5e D&D spell list and just started translating abilities that I could make work. Got about 10 just from the As.
Part of the problem I'm having with research is that basically no group smaller than ours should have had time to do any, and most of the groups larger than ours should have lost enough people quickly enough that their research efforts would be slowed from turnover. When your lead (and likely only) researcher dies of a spiral after 4-5 months, it's probably going to take 2-3 for the next girl to even get back up to speed on what she's been doing before she died.

When you look at our own history, the only reason we've had the time to do research at all is because we've made the rather reckless decision to invest in it instead of doing border patrols and PvP training, relying on Mother Mami to diplomance away any border problems; I can't imagine that working out very well most other places. Hiko is an obvious exception here because most of her research predates quest start, but I'd be somewhat incredulous to find out that there are many groups that have done any significant research at all, at least in terms of techs. Maybe some girls show up with unusual wish/magic abilities, like the deal-making girl at the Magick Company, but an actual tech base? I'm not so sure.

Maybe different magic traditions? I can imagine voodoo practitioners in Africa/the Carribean doing things very differently compared to magical girls in Japan. Maybe you'd see more ritual or circle-magic in Europe? Ritual dances? Familiars/animal companions? Animal sacrifice?
 
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Part of the problem I'm having with research is that basically no group smaller than ours should have had time to do any, and most of the groups larger than ours should have lost enough people quickly enough that their research efforts would be slowed from turnover. When your lead (and likely only) researcher dies of a spiral after 4-5 months, it's probably going to take 2-3 for the next girl to even get back up to speed on what she's been doing before she died.
This is less of an issue than you guys seemed to think.

You guys explicitly took a very non-optimal route. Because difficulty of raising morale increases per point. I don't have exact mathematical modeling for it, but it's roughly twice as hard to maintain each additional rank on the 0-10 morale scale. Which means that maintaining something like a 3 morale is half as hard as maintaining a 4 morale. So the difference in grief spiral losses isn't actually that severe.

Plus if you look at the math 4 cubes spiral limit and a morale of 5 gives 0.31% per month chance of death. 2 cubes limit at 3 morale gives 1.21% chance of death. At 2 cubes + 2 morale 1.58% chance.

So average survival time with 2 cubes at 3 morale is 57 months from grief spirals. Even at 2 cubes +2 morale the average survival time is still 43.5 months. 4 cubes at 5 morale is 226 months. Much longer yes, but even the lowest of these values is already a longer period than the entire quest. Even at 0 morale and 1 cube your average survival time would be 13.6 months, and it would be nigh impossible for a real group to have 0 morale.

So you're very unlikely to lose your head researcher to spiraling very often regardless of whether you run a high morale or not.

People have a strange habit in this quest of vastly overestimating turnover if morale is low. It's not going to happen every 4-5 months in basically any feasible set of circumstances. (Even at 0 morale, 0 cubes average survival time is 6.6 months, and no organization could survive providing conditions like that for very long.)

Plus the central elements of an organization are usually going to be allowed more cubes. You can pretty much expect that important members are going to be 4 cube spiral limits and at least 3 morale. For an average 114 month survival time. Organization morale also doesn't necessarily translate to the core in general. I mean Mami doesn't even roll for grief spirals in most circumstances, she's basically counted as if she had 10 morale unless you have serious losses. You can expect someone like Hiko is running around 8 or 9 personal morale, and Hino probably around 6-7. The people that end up in high positions are just better off mentally, they last that long and they end up on top because they have the stronger will.


You guys built a very sub optimal arrangement, which I have pointed out numerous times. I mean yeah you have lost 15% of your original group over 3 years and that's impressive, but the average group is only going to be around 39% losses or so for 3 years (from spirals), whereas people are acting like they'd have had 500% turnover in that time period.
 
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@Kinematics

What about having a spa day for morale purposes?
Large, monolithic morale days were logistically difficult before we even started accepting refugees; now that we're nearly 3 times the size they'll be practically impossible without a lot of prep time. We should probably still try to do something like a Serene-wide company party, but at this point it ought to cost a significant amount, much more than 1/30th of our population size, to account for renting a venue and logistical overhead. I don't think they're going to be worth it on more than an annual or semi-annual basis.
 
Okay... so work was pretty crazy since I last posted. Customer ultimatums and all that fun stuff. Was at work late every night until Friday, took yesterday off just so my brain could recover.

Unfortunately in the meantime I had this tab open with a long list of quotes that I was planning to respond to, but the computer crashed, so... I'm just going to move on. If that means in my discussion that I miss that something has already been brought up and discussed please forgive me.

Main thing I do remember was about the concept of "Clan" government.

@inverted_helix You said that a Clan government is a bunch of families led by another family, but it's more accurate to say that it's a group of families that are related to each other.

Because of this Aunts, Uncles, and Cousins all become much more powerful than in the more nuclear family form we currently have (where the Mother rules over all the children). That's the analogy that I was trying to draw, and that I think would be effective and a far more natural outgrowth of our current government form.

Bunch of new stuff posted since then, so I'm going to get it all out in a big response post:

North (37 size, 1.1 DS, slight poaching)
- Seto Teleportation (0.5)
- No Rotating Tactics
- 1.0 experienced Vets, Pair, Hard Leather armor. -3.7% risk
- 9.5 untrained Vets, Packs, Hard Leather armor. 0.3% risk
- DS: 1.1 to 5.5 (allowing buffer in case of poaching)
- Cubes: 45.1

South (37 size, 0.0 DS)
- Seto Teleportation
- Standard Rotating Tactics
- 1.5 elite (Seto, Miho) Solo, Full Kevlar. -2.1% risk.
- 10 experienced Vet Pairs, Full Kevlar. -0.1% risk.
- DS: 0.0 to 9.7
- Cubes: 67

Rural (8 size, -4.9 DS)
- 5 Green pairs. No armor. -3.0% risk.
- DS: -4.9 to -5.0
- Cubes: 7.9

Odawara (12 size, -15 DS)
- 6 untrained Vet pairs. No armor. Teleportation charms. -11.2% risk.
- DS: -15 to 2.7
- Cubes: 22.6

Total cubes: 142.6 - 1.0 (forecasting) - 1.5 (teleporting) - 0.3 (charms) = 139.8

Units:
1.5 elite hunting, 0.5 teleporting
11 experienced vets
15.5 untrained vets
5 trained greens
1 vet used for creating teleportation charms for hunters.

I would again suggest that we look at a more aggressive hunting plan that hunts all our territory and the Odawara section up to DS 10. This maximizes the amount of cubes we can get this turn, protects against poachers (by making our territory unattractive) and is allows us to use more girls. The idea would be to then attack the Eyeball at the start of next month instead.

This might not be possible, depending on the numbers, but I suggest we work the numbers first and see so that we know exactly what our options are. I'll get to work on that myself.

Nagoya quant training: 5 vets
Mentors: 10% of refugees; was 6.5 vets last turn.
Artifact powering training: was 4 vets + Mami last turn (including Keiko)

Will likely need to turn at least some of this off for this turn. Have to see the design for the Beholder fight.

I don't think we can pull the girls of the quant training. We absolutely need to maintain good relations with Nagoya.

Mentors we will have to reconsider how to handle even more girls...

Artifact Powering we have to keep some girls on it, but we probably have to pull Mami off.

1 Vet, 0.5 Mami - Nagoya, Heaven's Chosen. We've cleared out a sufficient number of the surrounding youma to start actively drawing the attention of the Beholder, while limiting the ability of the other youma to interfere in the fight. Unfortunately, we also have significant issues in the surrounding territories because of the fleeing refugees.

We intend to complete the strike against the Beholder in the middle of the month. For this to be as effective as possible, we ask that Nagoya provide their full assistance on this, with as many elite strike teams as they can spare, who are willing to take the risk of this fight. We will need a brief test run with them with Serena, so they'll be aware of what's going to happen.

We also recognize that they have border issues, though, so would ask Hiko help shore up any weakened areas in Nagoya's borders, or at least provide a significant border space where there will be no conflict. A truce, for the period of time needed to deal with a significantly larger threat.

We will also need Nagoya to allow us to pull our quant team back for the purpose of this fight. They can resume next month.

Well... maybe. Still not convinced that immediate attack is best.

Purchases:

Sachiko credit line: $2 million

Purchase: Abandoned village. Set up contractors to begin renovating 3 homes (amount that can be done at once). $150k, 1 vet, Kyubey assist

-- Assign several untrained greens to clean up the village (and church, if applicable). [10] Clean the streets, weed the gardens, trim the bushes and trees, throw out garbage, all that stuff. Make the entire village presentable, even if the construction workers are only improving a few houses.

Purchase 100 cubes from Nagoya ($400k)

Accept 27 refugees.
Welcome package (bike, phone, shield, misc = $250 * 27 = $6750)
Add 32 apartment capacity ($250 * 32 = $8000) (1.5 vet)

Purchase 2 sets of hard leather armor. $600

Total: $565,350

? Purchase: Kyouko's church ($600k). Arrange renovations work ($200k) (Turn 31 eval), 1 vet?
- Not urgent, but could be a crucial morale boost

Total: $1,365,350

1: I'd rather not purchase the Church with borrowed money. We don't have time for the project right now, and I don't think there will be any advantage to just buying the church if we don't do anything with it.

2: I'd rather not purchase that many cubes unless we have too. If we have to spend money I'd rather spend it on buying more equipment so that we can hunt to a higher DS with more girls or something like that. Since that would give us actual capital equipment that we can continue to use in the future.

Misc mentor-based mixers. Swim day. Hiking day. Sports day. Gaming. Movie nights. Not all together, but lots of opportunities for people to mix with each other. 6 vets (2.5 exp vets, 2 non-exp vets, 1.5 greens), $2000

Purchase personally-engraved medals for all current members, and any who died in fighting in Tokyo, as a signifier/reminder. $720, 1 vet.

Good to brainstorm morale ideas, but we need to polish up these ideas more.

Beholder plans

Kyouclone testing: 0.5 Kyouko, 0.5 Kyouclone, 0.5 Taya

Assault:
Serena group - Serena, 4 elites, 2 vet/elites
Elites - 0.5 Mami, 0.5 Kyouko, 0.5 Kyouclone, 0.5 Taya
Veterans (x2? experienced) - 12/24
Veterans (non-members) - 7
Nagoya elites - 5

Ehh? Serena's friends are all Vets... I guess you mean when they are under her full aura?

We definitely need more planning on how to scout and approach this.

Veterans (experienced) - 4.5
Veterans (untrained) - 12
Greens (trained) - 5
Greens (untrained) - 17.5

That seems like a lot of girl power left unused. Which is why I want to look at the max hunt option. At worst we could send greens out to get jobs.

I forget was there a cube cost applied to this?

Can't remember, there might have been. If I find it while researching other things I'll let you know.

Also as a sort of long term thing I can partially offload on players and I suspect people might actually have a bit of fun with. I am soliciting ideas for techs and goods that other groups might have. My creativity has limits so I try to outsource where possible. Obviously I'll have to adjust ideas for game balance and possibly metaphysics matching, but I'm interested in what ideas people have. It would be nice in diversifying how people develop given tech sharing is minimal people should develop many different things.
Also decided to take the super easy route on developing techs for other groups. Went to the 3.5e D&D spell list and just started translating abilities that I could make work. Got about 10 just from the As.

Well... I'll have to give it some more thought. Right now I'm focused on catching up for the next turn, but in the meantime I'll suggest a few other possible sources of Magic Tech besides D & D:

Magic the Gathering has a ton of different ideas that might be useful.

The Reckoners series and the Alcatraz series by Brandon Sanderson has magic type tech that might be useful for ideas. (The Reckoners could provide some very dark ideas for a villian indeed - especially reveals in the third book in the series).

Also, I've tended to think that a lot of Magical Girl "tech" is going to be figuring out how certain magic can be stretched. For example, I've always thought that Homura's weird room must be somehow related to the way witches create barriers. And I've suspected that her "shield of holding" magic could be expanded into being able to create a pocket universe.

If you have some use for untrained refugees that will allow us to expand faster, fine, but I haven't seen one yet.

That one of the reasons I was looking at outward expansion, as a way to use them productively without putting them into storage.

Church cost is $800k.

Borrowed now, that's 3.2% per mil prior to killing the Beholder, 2% after. That's 2.56% pre-Beholder, 1.6% after. The difference is 0.96%, not 1.4%.

At our current income, that difference is $413 per month. Over 8 years (96 months), that's a pay back of $39,629. Double that to account for increased income (an average over tripled income), and we're around $80k, which is 20 cubes. That's the effective premium we're paying to get the church started this turn instead of next.

The number of greens we have free to put in storage without really messing with anything is currently 24. They would cost 0.1 cubes each, which means a net savings of 21.6 cubes. While it would be nice to get this reduction, it's not enough that I'd be willing to take the morale hit for it.

Putting people in storage would be a penalty to our morale. While most of our core group likely has a higher morale, overall average is sitting at a 2. That's not good, and a lower morale will have a hidden cost of more cubes spent on grief spirals.

Buying the church is sending the message that we expect to use it. That is, we expect to still be here after the Beholder is dead, and we're not afraid to spend money supporting that belief. That should be a pretty solid boost to morale.

See... my thing here is that the cost is concrete, but the benefits are very speculative. I don't see why just buying the church would improve anyone's morale other than Kyoko. Actually working on it and preparing it to be a headquarters? Yes that should be a morale boost, but otherwise it's to distant and abstract to have an impact. Certainly not worth 20 cubes.

It's also intended to be the central key element of our new governance. The sooner it's ready, the better, because governance is an issue we're running into head first right now.

Aside: Small idea - Order engraved medals for all current members, to commemorate their efforts to fight the Beholder. A quick check indicates we can get 180 personally engraved medals for about $720. (180 = 147 current + 27 new + 6 who died) (Couldn't find anything for military-quality medals.) A signifier for those actually here for this fight.

Again, I don't think that just buying the church will really help right now with that.

As for the medal idea... again that seems more like something to do after the Tokyo crisis is resolved. Maybe a wall of plaques in our new headquarters?

Wondering if we can do something like the mentor thing, but more group-oriented instead of individual-oriented. Anything we can do to raise morale up from 0 would be a huge help to our situation. Assuming we accept the new refugees this turn, we'll have a total of 100 refugees that we've accepted into our ranks, and we need to continue adapting them to our culture. 39 of those are not currently assigned duties.

I'd focus on trying to find ways to use them, rather than pre-emptively trying to put them in storage. We need ideas, and lots of them. Ignore money limits, because we've got cash to burn. We can trim back anything excessive once we have more ideas to sort through.

I do think we need to divide up mentoring duties more. Instead of 1 to 1 going to have to go to at least 2 to one now. Maybe if we need more experienced vets we can put the ratio even higher.

Dunno. Over the long term, the extra cost is pretty small, while in the short term, the extra morale and government prep is likely to be beneficial. Of course the further you stretch into the future, the more value the cost has, and the less value the startup margins have. I'm not sure it's possible for there to be a 'correct' answer on this, but my gut instinct is to push morale as hard as possible right now, because lots of things can collapse due to low morale.

I wouldn't object to spend money, even borrowed money, on a solid morale booster. It just seems like this is a very marginal morale booster at best, and far less cost effective than even just handing out money.

I guess the obvious question is how long it takes to rebuild the church. I vaguely remember it being three months and by that point we'll want to be expanding into Tokyo, so having our centre of government set up by then could be a major speed up.

I'm not sure that it will help that much. It's more long term benefits than short term, so it seems odd to me to spend money on it now when we don't need it yet.

You know, I'm wondering exactly how big the morale hit would (or should) be in our case. Consider that the refugees we have are the stubborn ones, the patriots and the heroes who decided to stick it out in Tokyo even when Nagoya offered the stasis option to them before. These are the girls who wanted to help, before they finally lost their nerve and fled. Now they're joining up with the group who is kicking over the hornet's nest, making real change and bringing hope where there wasn't any before... except since none of them are trained all we're doing with them is throwing them into mentorship programs, basically telling them that not only can they do nothing to help, but even joining up with the Serene is a burden because you're taking trained soldiers off of the battlefield to babysit them.

Are those the refugees we got? I got the impression that a lot of the girls we got are those that wanted out of the city but rejected going into stasis. So if we try to make them go under, I'd expect a full riot from those girls, not just a morale hit. Now I expect we are also picking up a bit higher percentage of the "heroes" than most other groups, but that's not the all of them.

@inverted_helix Is that correct?
 
And I've suspected that her "shield of holding" magic could be expanded into being able to create a pocket universe.
I'm pretty sure Homura's shield of holding trick is an extension of her dimensional powers. She's not putting stuff into a pocket universe; she's reaching back to the point at which she put the item "into" her shield and pulling it into the present. Think the Oblivious sword from Goblins, not pocket dimensions.
Are those the refugees we got? I got the impression that a lot of the girls we got are those that wanted out of the city but rejected going into stasis. So if we try to make them go under, I'd expect a full riot from those girls, not just a morale hit. Now I expect we are also picking up a bit higher percentage of the "heroes" than most other groups, but that's not the all of them.
If they were just cowards they'd be running from us too, like all the people invading the surrounding territories. These aren't captives; these are volunteers. If they were captives we'd be sending them along to join the Unconscious Collective in Nagoya (well unless they're clairvoyants, translators, or magic chefs; we need clairvoyants badly for hunting and the other two are worth enough that putting up with their cowardice is worth the loss of unit cohesion).
 
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Large, monolithic morale days were logistically difficult before we even started accepting refugees; now that we're nearly 3 times the size they'll be practically impossible without a lot of prep time. We should probably still try to do something like a Serene-wide company party, but at this point it ought to cost a significant amount, much more than 1/30th of our population size, to account for renting a venue and logistical overhead. I don't think they're going to be worth it on more than an annual or semi-annual basis.

In that case what about a bunch of smaller spa days? Instead of everybody going to the spa at once, time is made for every body to go to the spa over the course of the month.
 
@Elder Haman

Now that you are back I regret to inform you that, Like Kine with Kyoko's church, I find your arguments against expanding to be more convincing than your arguments for expanding.
 
Found the data on population and organizations

Some help, just looking at the map from the North of Japan down the locations that look like large urban areas are:

Sapporo in Hokkaido

Sendai, north of Tokyo

Niigata, west of Sendai on the Sea of Japan.

Toyama/Komatsu, north of Nagoya

Okayama/Takamatsu, west of Osaka. Okayama is on Honshu, and Takamatsu is across the strait on Shikoku.

The island of Kyushu seems to be a mess of medium sized cities, with Fukuoka the largest, followed by it's near neighbor Kitakyushu. On the west part of the island is where Kumamoto, Nagasaki, Saga, and several smaller cities are all situated around the large bay formed by the Ariake Sea.

By population size, cities in Japan are:

Tokyo (of course)
Yokohama (part of larger Tokyo)
Osaka
Nagoya
Sapporo

Kobe (part of larger Osaka)
Kyoto (part of larger Osaka)
Fukuoka (over on Kyushu, about 2/3 the size of Nagoya)
Kawasaki (part of larger Tokyo)
Saitama (part of larger Tokyo)
Hiroshima (not listed above from looking at the map, very small footprint, must be very dense. Approximately 1/2 the population of Nagoya)
Sendai
Kitakyushu
(just under 1 million, about 1/3 the size of Osaka proper, next door to Fukuoka)
Chiba (part of larger Tokyo)
Sakai (part of larger Osaka)
Niigata (about a third the size of Osaka)
Hamamatsu (Area 13/14)
Kumamoto (on the west bay of Kyushu, 1/2 the size of Fukuoka, combined with the other cities in the area probably starts to rival Fukuoka)
Sagamihara (part of larger Tokyo)
Shizuoka aka Mitakihara (where we are, 1/2 the size of Fukuoka, 1/3 the size of Nagoya)
Okayama (about 1/3 of Nagoya, when combined with Takamatsu is about 1/2 the size of Nagoya)
A bunch of parts of larger Tokyo
Kagoshima (southern most city in Kyushu, sub-tropical, 600K pop, 1/2 the size of Fukuoka)

Toyama is only 400K a bit more than half of our population, so that can probably be taken off the list. In fact anything after Kagoshima is probably not a candidate at this point. And I bet a bunch of the above don't even have large organizations. I've colored what looks like the 11 most likely to have their own organizations, and you've already stated two of them. So probably 6 more to go? (Assuming that 2/3 have developed into large organizations, and 1/3 have not?)

Also I just did the rolls to see about groups in the rest of Japan. They are pretty terrible... like GM is tempted to reroll but doesn't because he's trying to let the dice fall as they will. These rolls are bad enough that it probably places you guys as around 6th in terms of size. Nagoya > three Kyoto/Osaka groups you don't have enough information to rank against each other > Sendai > You.

Kumamoto and Okayama rolled low enough that there's no organizations at all and everybody's fighting each other. <10 on unity.

So that is seven large metropolitan areas that have organizations smaller than Magik Corp, and at least two of which have virtually none (one of which is on the far side of Kyushu, and so the furthest distance from Tokyo).

Also... rereading what we all thought about clearing out Tokyo...

I feel compelled to quote Sayaka: "I was stupid... so stupid"

We all were...
 
@Elder Haman

Now that you are back I regret to inform you that, Like Kine with Kyoko's church, I find your arguments against expanding to be more convincing than your arguments for expanding.

There are significant risks no matter what we do.

Which is why I am leaning more towards doing nothing but overhunting and scouting this turn so we can get a better idea of the best method to take action.

Quick check on the numbers is that if we overhunt everything we possibly can to 10 DS with Rotating tactics, we can get 178 cubes this turn. We have 174 cubes needed just for girl maintenance (assuming we take the refugees). Does not cover grief spirals or other expenses (like to help Kofu).

If we buy cubes from Nagoya it'll be enough to give us one full turn to gather information and prepare.

Going to crunch a few more numbers and see there is any more give here at all.

EDIT: Wait, I forgot to include the Rotating Tactic bonus, that will change things a lot. Recalculating.

EDIT2: Updated the above numbers with Rotating tactics effect. This seems very possible after all.

EDIT3: Sigh, I am really rusty, I used the old RT numbers for the above not the new one, which means we can get even more cubes than the numbers above, but it think it's enough to show that a massive overhunt is a viable solution.
 
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I don't think we have the time. I know I've said it a lot, but I think we need to attack the beholder this month.

Why?

Please explain your reasoning, because the main reason I see is that the Eyeball is making it so we can't kill the rest of the other Youma as easily, and because it makes hunting in Tokyo dangerous.

If we can sustain our cube costs for one turn without killing the Eyeball, then it would mean we have one turn to scout the Eyeball and come up with some tactics that will let us kill it more safely. That seems like something very desirable to have.

I think we are all in agreement that the Eyeball has to be killed before proceeding any further with the clearing of Tokyo. The only question is how much time do we have to prepare? No time? (in which case we attack without prep) or one month? (which allows for some prep).
 
@Aranfan Do you still have the cheat sheet with the list of all the modifiers? It's not linked on the front page anymore, and I'd rather not blindly trust my notes.

It is the second threadmark. It doesn't have the stuff about the charms tho', IIRC.

Please explain your reasoning, because the main reason I see is that the Eyeball is making it so we can't kill the rest of the other Youma as easily, and because it makes hunting in Tokyo dangerous.

If we can sustain our cube costs for one turn without killing the Eyeball, then it would mean we have one turn to scout the Eyeball and come up with some tactics that will let us kill it more safely. That seems like something very desirable to have.

I think we are all in agreement that the Eyeball has to be killed before proceeding any further with the clearing of Tokyo. The only question is how much time do we have to prepare? No time? (in which case we attack without prep) or one month? (which allows for some prep).

Your analysis of the main problem is correct, however I do not think that we need a full month to gather intel and formulate tactics. Even if we can sustain our cube costs another turn, I'm not sure if Tokyo will be able to last long enough without us killing the beholder so we can go on a Youma hunting spree.

Additionally, the longer we take to kill the Beholder and clear tokyo the more of our equity we are going to owe to Sachiko. Which is undesirable.

Finally: That bastard killed some of our girls, it must die as soon as possible. (yes, I mad)
 
@inverted_helix How do our modifiers change due to the influx of new girls?

[*]Basic General Combat Training: -2% Casualties (May decay with losses or recruitment).
[*]Basic Solo Combat Training: -1% Pack Hunting, -2% pair hunting, -3% Solo Hunting
[*]Defending Others Training: -2% Pair Hunting, -1% Pack Hunting
[*]Pack Tactics Training: -4% pack hunting, -2% pair hunting
[*]Telepathic communication (-2% pair hunting, -1% pack hunting)
[*]Demon Scanning training (+20% grief cubes)
[*]PvP training: Still terrible, but slightly less so +2% PvP effectiveness
[*]Experienced Hunters +10% grief cube gather rates

I'm assuming that the trained girls get all the modifiers.

The untrained girls get none of them?

It is the second threadmark. It doesn't have the stuff about the charms tho', IIRC.

Thanks, very helpful.

What was the benefits of charms again?

Barrier charms added a -1% casualty risk or something like that?

Anyway, looking at it, depending on how many modifiers and where... looks like we might be able to hunt upwards of 16 DS to get an even bigger cube haul. (Mainly by using Pack Hunting w/ vets w/ armor)

Might be worth doing for the following reasons:

1: More cubes at cost of meguca month inefficiency (we are flush in girl power, but short on cubes).
2: Passive anti-poaching defense. It makes our territory very unattractive to any poachers without us having to spend time defending.
3: Allows for a larger alpha stirke next month and time to prepare.

Negatives:

1: We are committed to taking some action next month because our territory will not be huntable for at least a month.
2: Risk of Youma spawning

Counters to the Negatives:

1: We're probably committed to taking action anyway, never hedge when your life is on the line. Might as well go all in for the bigger payoff.
2a: Serena could counter any Youma spawns
2b: We don't have to go all the way to 16 DS, perhaps 12 or 14 would be better.
 
Your analysis of the main problem is correct, however I do not think that we need a full month to gather intel and formulate tactics. Even if we can sustain our cube costs another turn, I'm not sure if Tokyo will be able to last long enough without us killing the beholder so we can go on a Youma hunting spree.

Additionally, the longer we take to kill the Beholder and clear tokyo the more of our equity we are going to owe to Sachiko. Which is undesirable.

Finally: That bastard killed some of our girls, it must die as soon as possible. (yes, I mad)

1: Tokyo will last. The Incubators will wait at least a month to see what happens. Story wise there ought to be no difference between us attacking at the end of this month or at the beginning of next, but for planning and player organizations it makes a lot more sense to attack at the beginning of next month.

2: Actually, we will probably owe less equity to Sachiko by not having to purchase so many cubes from Nagoya. Though I'll have to run the numbers to be sure.

3: Hastening an action due to anger is likely to end up with more of our girls dead. So I say anger should driven deciding what to do (kill the Eyeball) but not when.
 
I would again suggest that we look at a more aggressive hunting plan that hunts all our territory and the Odawara section up to DS 10. This maximizes the amount of cubes we can get this turn, protects against poachers (by making our territory unattractive) and is allows us to use more girls. The idea would be to then attack the Eyeball at the start of next month instead.

This might not be possible, depending on the numbers, but I suggest we work the numbers first and see so that we know exactly what our options are. I'll get to work on that myself.
Pushing all of North/South/Odawara to 10 DS would get us about 163 cubes. Standard RT on North/South, none in Odawara because we don't have the profile data to do that there. If we could, then total would go up to 173 cubes. On the other hand, we're getting a random check every single day we hunt in Odawara for the Beholder to drop on the group, which makes it extremely dangerous. Absolute best case is an 80% chance of a Beholder interrupt during the month; more likely 95% or higher.

Taking out Odawara from the options means we cap out around 135-140 cubes.
1: I'd rather not purchase the Church with borrowed money. We don't have time for the project right now, and I don't think there will be any advantage to just buying the church if we don't do anything with it.
I don't think there's any chance of not doing so, unless we're not going to buy it for several years in-game.

I mainly put it in in the first place because I'm just making a rough outline of what can be done, but also because I think it has the potential to be a decent morale booster, and we absolutely need morale boosts right now. Certainly more than the bit of money we'd save over the next 10+ years.

2: I'd rather not purchase that many cubes unless we have too. If we have to spend money I'd rather spend it on buying more equipment so that we can hunt to a higher DS with more girls or something like that. Since that would give us actual capital equipment that we can continue to use in the future.
I selected that amount because it was a round number that was certainly enough to cover our needs. We don't need more than that, but I'm not refining things enough to know how much less we can get away with. (again, partly depends on Beholder fight plans)

That seems like a lot of girl power left unused. Which is why I want to look at the max hunt option. At worst we could send greens out to get jobs.
It is, and I don't like it, but most of them are untrained and/or green, which makes them poor choices for hunting if we're doing the RT hunt. The few experienced are a leftover buffer to allow moving things around. Jobs is fine as a backup, but hoping for more ideas on other creative things they could do (ie: morale).

As for the medal idea... again that seems more like something to do after the Tokyo crisis is resolved. Maybe a wall of plaques in our new headquarters?
In this case, I'm including the fact that I expect some of them to die, and this is another type of remembrance of the "I was here; I was a part of this; I helped make it happen" thing, that they know, and can physically hold, rather than a potentially posthumous thing. It's not a reward, it's a recognition.

Also... rereading what we all thought about clearing out Tokyo...

I feel compelled to quote Sayaka: "I was stupid... so stupid"

We all were...
We were so full of hope and optimism. Le sigh.
 
Pushing all of North/South/Odawara to 10 DS would get us about 163 cubes. Standard RT on North/South, none in Odawara because we don't have the profile data to do that there. If we could, then total would go up to 173 cubes. On the other hand, we're getting a random check every single day we hunt in Odawara for the Beholder to drop on the group, which makes it extremely dangerous. Absolute best case is an 80% chance of a Beholder interrupt during the month; more likely 95% or higher.

Taking out Odawara from the options means we cap out around 135-140 cubes.

Wait... really? Dang it... been so long and I remembered previous turns with Odawara hunting going fine...

Dang... have to rethink this idea...
 
Wait... really? Dang it... been so long and I remembered previous turns with Odawara hunting going fine...
Previous turns did go fine. This turn the Beholder attacked Kyouclone's group (and we were incredibly lucky that it was Kyouclone) because of a roll of a nat 1. And helix said that the odds were higher than 1% (per day), and going up over time.
 
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So ran a few numbers on what levels we can hunt DS up to without risk with different groups.

(Note that I am using Aranfan's numbers which I know have been verified, but for some reason I can't find that additional -1% risk for pack hunting. He has -13% and I keep getting -12%).

Using trained greens in a pack w/ armor we can hunt up to 11 DS in the rural area, and up to 8 DS in the South urban area.

Using trained vets in a pack w/ armor we can hunt up to 18 DS in the South urban area (or alternatively +8 with IRT), and up to 16 DS in the North urban area.

That's without taking into account charms.

What was the safety bonus due to charms again?

If we can get -1% risk, trained greens could hunt up to 10 DS in the South. Although charms cost cubes, so maybe we shouldn't use them this month.

So this brings up the question... should we crack the +10 DS cap we have put on ourselves?

Using the above max numbers we'd get...

194.4 cubes without hunting in Odawara at all.

That's... that's enough to buy us a month....

So... should we do it?

Might be worth doing for the following reasons:

1: More cubes at cost of meguca month inefficiency (we are flush in girl power, but short on cubes).
2: Passive anti-poaching defense. It makes our territory very unattractive to any poachers without us having to spend time defending. (Essentially a scorched earth tactic).
3: Allows for a larger alpha strike next month and time to prepare.
4: Gives us a possible suggestion for the Kofu girls, if we feel comfortable extending Serena's spawn protection to them as well. We could even help them with getting armor, etc.

Negatives:

1: We are committed to taking some action next month because our territory will not be huntable for at least a month.
2: Risk of Youma spawning
3: Nagoya might not like it

Counters to the Negatives:

1: We're probably committed to taking action anyway, never hedge when your life is on the line. Might as well go all in for the bigger payoff.
2: Serena could counter any Youma spawns, and we probably will not be hunting in our territory at all next month.
3: Nagoya can probably accept it as part of our "get ready for the final battle" next month plan that we will be selling them on.
 
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Large, monolithic morale days were logistically difficult before we even started accepting refugees; now that we're nearly 3 times the size they'll be practically impossible without a lot of prep time. We should probably still try to do something like a Serene-wide company party, but at this point it ought to cost a significant amount, much more than 1/30th of our population size, to account for renting a venue and logistical overhead. I don't think they're going to be worth it on more than an annual or semi-annual basis.
Pretty much. You'd have serious problems getting your whole group doing anything at once at this point.

Okay... so work was pretty crazy since I last posted. Customer ultimatums and all that fun stuff. Was at work late every night until Friday, took yesterday off just so my brain could recover.
I did wonder at the sudden stop.

Unfortunately in the meantime I had this tab open with a long list of quotes that I was planning to respond to, but the computer crashed, so... I'm just going to move on. If that means in my discussion that I miss that something has already been brought up and discussed please forgive me.
I've rarely had this problem since the xenforo forums save drafts automatically.

@inverted_helix You said that a Clan government is a bunch of families led by another family, but it's more accurate to say that it's a group of families that are related to each other.

Because of this Aunts, Uncles, and Cousins all become much more powerful than in the more nuclear family form we currently have (where the Mother rules over all the children). That's the analogy that I was trying to draw, and that I think would be effective and a far more natural outgrowth of our current government form.
Seems like that would be very decentralized with very little control in the central authority.

That seems like a lot of girl power left unused. Which is why I want to look at the max hunt option. At worst we could send greens out to get jobs.
It is, with in ability to spend all meguca now being a recurring problem it may be time to switch over to a less realism driven and more manageable action slot system. I know people don't like the idea, but there's good reason that most systems use it. The manpower system just isn't scaling very well as your group gets bigger. Though honestly was tempted to just give you a massive inefficiency modifier because your flat system simply can't function that well at this size.

Plus doing the switch when you switch governmental forms would make sense too.

The Reckoners series and the Alcatraz series by Brandon Sanderson has magic type tech that might be useful for ideas. (The Reckoners could provide some very dark ideas for a villian indeed - especially reveals in the third book in the series).
Heh reading more books would be troublesome.

Also, I've tended to think that a lot of Magical Girl "tech" is going to be figuring out how certain magic can be stretched. For example, I've always thought that Homura's weird room must be somehow related to the way witches create barriers. And I've suspected that her "shield of holding" magic could be expanded into being able to create a pocket universe.
I always thought Homura's room was all holograms, mostly because Kyouko goes in there and has not a single comment about the room being unusual.

The shield of holding I figured was a pocket universe outside of normal time and space. I mean how else does she fit a damn battleship in there? And it has to be outside normal time and space because she carries things over between loops there. It's just totally bizarre.
I'm pretty sure Homura's shield of holding trick is an extension of her dimensional powers. She's not putting stuff into a pocket universe; she's reaching back to the point at which she put the item "into" her shield and pulling it into the present. Think the Oblivious sword from Goblins, not pocket dimensions.
This interpretation doesn't really mesh with her being able to pull objects out that she put into her shield in alternate erased timelines. The things she put in from alternate timeliens she can't reach back to that point in history for because that point in history no longer exists.

Consider that the refugees we have are the stubborn ones, the patriots and the heroes who decided to stick it out in Tokyo even when Nagoya offered the stasis option to them before. These are the girls who wanted to help, before they finally lost their nerve and fled. Now they're joining up with the group who is kicking over the hornet's nest, making real change and bringing hope where there wasn't any before... except since none of them are trained all we're doing with them is throwing them into mentorship programs, basically telling them that not only can they do nothing to help, but even joining up with the Serene is a burden because you're taking trained soldiers off of the battlefield to babysit them.
Are those the refugees we got? I got the impression that a lot of the girls we got are those that wanted out of the city but rejected going into stasis. So if we try to make them go under, I'd expect a full riot from those girls, not just a morale hit. Now I expect we are also picking up a bit higher percentage of the "heroes" than most other groups, but that's not the all of them.

@inverted_helix Is that correct?
If they were just cowards they'd be running from us too, like all the people invading the surrounding territories. These aren't captives; these are volunteers. If they were captives we'd be sending them along to join the Unconscious Collective in Nagoya (well unless they're clairvoyants, translators, or magic chefs; we need clairvoyants badly for hunting and the other two are worth enough that putting up with their cowardice is worth the loss of unit cohesion).
Haman is much more correct here. You've pulled in some that wanted to help. But many are indeed the cowards that fled, invading a territory means having to fight for every scrap, that's not really cowardly.

The people that invade other territories aren't the cowardly ones. They're the ones that have no faith at all in the offers. Or in the rare case would prefer more personal power that not joining offers.

Why? Instead of organizing an entire outing, likely renting out an entire spa for 140+ girls, just giving groups of them all coupons for a free spa and telling them to go on certain days almost seems easier.
This will have some impact on morale, but it doesn't create as much cohesion as your previous actions. In much the same way that just giving out money increases morale but less so on knitting everyone together (though that may in fact be impossible at your new size).

So that is seven large metropolitan areas that have organizations smaller than Magik Corp, and at least two of which have virtually none (one of which is on the far side of Kyushu, and so the furthest distance from Tokyo).
Note that doesn't mean no organizations, and it doesn't mean that no one else has conquered them. Those were native development roles in terms of me developing a list of major organizations of Japan that you could potentially negotiate with.

Also... rereading what we all thought about clearing out Tokyo...

I feel compelled to quote Sayaka: "I was stupid... so stupid"

We all were...
:oops:

@inverted_helix How do our modifiers change due to the influx of new girls?

I'm assuming that the trained girls get all the modifiers.

The untrained girls get none of them?
Yes this is how I've been modeling it. Though they still benefit from equipment modifiers.

(Also didn't check that it was done properly last turn, but not going to bother now since way too late to change turn results trivially.)

Wait... really? Dang it... been so long and I remembered previous turns with Odawara hunting going fine...
Previous turns did go fine. This turn the Beholder attacked Kyouclone's group (and we were incredibly lucky that it was Kyouclone) because of a roll of a nat 1. And helix said that the odds were higher than 1% (per day), and going up over time.
It's a reactive force to your efforts impacting it. Earlier you'd achieved less, now it's more inclined to act.
 
Note that I am using Aranfan's numbers which I know have been verified, but for some reason I can't find that additional -1% risk for pack hunting. He has -13% and I keep getting -12%).
Assuming urban:
1% dispatch
3% shield
2% basic combat
1% basic solo combat
1% defending others
4% pack tactics
1% telepathic communications
Total = 13%

Untrained loses 8% of that, dropping it to 5% risk reduction (shield, dispatch, and I think telepathic communications?).

What was the safety bonus due to charms again?
1% for barrier charms, 2% for tandem barrier charms.
For teleport charms, 3% for solo, and 1% for pair or pack hunting. Solo and pair also reduce cube production by 5%.
 
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