Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
If we don't get more refugees, which we will.
Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)
- Thread starter inverted_helix
- Start date
If we don't get more refugees, which we will.
So that would be... 14.3 trained green girls (2 that are experienced to lead the pack) hunting in a pack to bring the rural area up to 11 DS. Giving us 18.66 cubes. (Out of an 8 cube area). 0% casualty risk.
It would be 27.2 trained vets (5 that are experienced to lead the packs) hunting in a pack to bring the South up to 18 DS, Giving us 92.5 cubes (out of a 37 cube area). 0% casualty risk.
It would be 24.5 trained vets (4 that are experienced to lead the packs) hunting in a pack to bring the North up to 16 DS, Giving us 83.25 cubes (out of a 37 cube area). 0% casualty risk.
(Of course, we don't have this many trained vets, but experienced vets are also trained).
However... we have commitments for 10 trained greens, and 29 exp. vets + 3 trained vets in our support list.
So that leaves...
26 exp. vets, 6 trained vets, and 20 trained greens to draw from for hunting...
Untrained would lose 9% I think. Telepathic communication is trained isn't it?
I suppose we could use the trained greens and untrained vets... (strangely enough the trained greens are more effective than the untrained vets), but that would require dropping DS or accepting casualty risk, though death risk is much smaller in packs. We also have Elites that could hunt, and they should be able to do so in pairs, which would reduce the number of vets needed by quite a bit. And we could give the trained greens charms to make them safer (at the cost of being less efficient).
I also have not taken into account Seto Transportation which might drop the needed vets still further.
I haven't gotten a response yet to the more general question: Are we okay going over the 10 DS cap?
If we are, then I think this is a viable tactic.
Especially with all the untrained vet clairvoyants we got, we can probably do a good job of scouting.
It would be 27.2 trained vets (5 that are experienced to lead the packs) hunting in a pack to bring the South up to 18 DS, Giving us 92.5 cubes (out of a 37 cube area). 0% casualty risk.
It would be 24.5 trained vets (4 that are experienced to lead the packs) hunting in a pack to bring the North up to 16 DS, Giving us 83.25 cubes (out of a 37 cube area). 0% casualty risk.
(Of course, we don't have this many trained vets, but experienced vets are also trained).
However... we have commitments for 10 trained greens, and 29 exp. vets + 3 trained vets in our support list.
So that leaves...
26 exp. vets, 6 trained vets, and 20 trained greens to draw from for hunting...
Untrained would lose 9% I think. Telepathic communication is trained isn't it?
I suppose we could use the trained greens and untrained vets... (strangely enough the trained greens are more effective than the untrained vets), but that would require dropping DS or accepting casualty risk, though death risk is much smaller in packs. We also have Elites that could hunt, and they should be able to do so in pairs, which would reduce the number of vets needed by quite a bit. And we could give the trained greens charms to make them safer (at the cost of being less efficient).
I also have not taken into account Seto Transportation which might drop the needed vets still further.
I haven't gotten a response yet to the more general question: Are we okay going over the 10 DS cap?
If we are, then I think this is a viable tactic.
Especially with all the untrained vet clairvoyants we got, we can probably do a good job of scouting.
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We don't have to pay their upkeep this turn, just next turn, at which point we will have killed the Eyeball and be able to hunt most of the month in Tokyo.
- Location
- Head in the clouds
For purposes of unity either enormous funeral service tailored to not grief spiral everyone if we fail, a celebration once the beholder bites it with incense or some such at the shrine or if by half a dozen miracles we don't lose anyone taking the beholder a mini festival at our village as soon as we can get the construction workers out
- Location
- The Beach
I am definitely in favor of some kind of service and festival every year for all this shit we are going through.
I'm not sure on your numbers, here.
First, remember that 10 'trained' greens are undergoing training this turn (the T33 refugees). We get the training benefit for all 30, but we must allocate that quantity to the training itself, which means only 20 available trained greens for hunting. (Plus the other 6 existing greens which are already trained.)
Also, general organizational maintenance needs 2.5 greens, and I'm guessing that those will need to come from the trained/experienced ones, not the new ones.
So of the 36 trained/experienced greens, only 23.5 are actually available for hunting.
In addition, 3 of the 9 trained vets are undergoing training, so only 6 of those are available.
15 trained greens in packs in the rural area could hunt DS up to 9.8, without Seto's assistance. With Seto teleporting them, only need 11 greens (DS up to 9.5), but costs an extra 3 cubes. Could get a fraction of a cube more by taking DS above 10, but leaving that alone at the moment.
For the South area, either:
1) Seto teleports the rural: 12.5 trained green, 6 trained vet. 59.9 cubes, 7.4 DS
2) Seto does not teleport the rural: 8.5 trained green, 6 trained vet, 3 experienced vets. 61.7 cubes, 8 DS.
Total cubes for Rural+South, after deducting teleport costs:
1) Seto teleports rural: 73.1
2) Seto does not teleport rural: 78.1
Even allowing for DS above 10 for the North area (experienced vets in packs), I'm only seeing it as feasible to harvest about 160 cubes, total — well short of 195.
I would be extremely reluctant to do that without significant justification. From the numbers I'm seeing, it's not worth it.
Having Seto teleport in the rural area adds too much cube cost to be worth freeing up units.
Can either use trained vets/greens in the South and take it to DS 8 for 134.5 total cubes, or use experienced vets in the South to take it to DS 10 for 141.9 total cubes. This assumes the North is hunted to only DS 8.2, to keep risk below 0 for pairs.
If the North is hunted to DS 10 (9.7) with packs, can get 145.7 cubes.
If we use IRT in the North, and add barrier and teleport charms, can get cube harvest up to 153.6 at the cost of needing 4 more meguca to make the charms and 3 more for hunting. DS ends up at 10.9.
Adding IRT to the south, and switching to pack tactics, can get cubes up to 163.4 for a total of 41 vets (6 trained, 35 experienced) and 15 greens (trained). South DS would be 11.7. Would need to buy 8 more sets of kevlar.
Each of these uses up most or all of our existing kevlar. If we fought the Beholder this month, I'm not sure how the allocation would work out. The fight itself would only use up one day (win or lose), but I'm not sure if helix would allow reallocation of armor for that one day like that. (Or possibly penalize cubes by ~5 for taking a day off of hunting.)
Now, let's assume we take a 5 cube penalty per day for pulling everyone off of hunting for two days to go after the Beholder. Applying that 5 cube penalty to the North and South (excluding Rural since that's all greens) drops their DS back to 9.6 and 10.4, respectively. Acceptable margin. Final cubes would be 153.5, which is also workable.
At that point, we'd need to buy 40 cubes just to be neutral on upkeep and spirals. Any cubes above that would be supporting Kofu and paying the magic cost of fighting the Beholder (estimating 50 for those together).
I don't see it viable to get above these numbers for hunting this turn. 165 is about the limit unless we want to blow open the risk and DS levels, and I don't think we want a youma in our backyard right when we're going after the Beholder. Once we do this, we're going to get almost no cubes from our territory next turn (as in, about 27 cubes if we let everything settle back to 0). On the other hand, we can mob Yokohama for cubes. We could harvest 250 cubes and barely budge the DS value.
Not counting the ongoing assignments, we have a mandatory 21 vets that pretty much have to come from our 'experienced' pool. Given the 35 vets for the above tactic, that leaves no vets for the Beholder fight if we try to use the above hunt strategy, unless we can extract those "two days" of direct work to fight the Beholder. Barring that, we have to drop to around the 140 cube harvest level to free up vets, which means buying another ~15 to make up the difference.
@inverted_helix - What rules should we adhere to as far as splitting up time in any of the above manner?
Can either use trained vets/greens in the South and take it to DS 8 for 134.5 total cubes, or use experienced vets in the South to take it to DS 10 for 141.9 total cubes. This assumes the North is hunted to only DS 8.2, to keep risk below 0 for pairs.
If the North is hunted to DS 10 (9.7) with packs, can get 145.7 cubes.
If we use IRT in the North, and add barrier and teleport charms, can get cube harvest up to 153.6 at the cost of needing 4 more meguca to make the charms and 3 more for hunting. DS ends up at 10.9.
Adding IRT to the south, and switching to pack tactics, can get cubes up to 163.4 for a total of 41 vets (6 trained, 35 experienced) and 15 greens (trained). South DS would be 11.7. Would need to buy 8 more sets of kevlar.
Each of these uses up most or all of our existing kevlar. If we fought the Beholder this month, I'm not sure how the allocation would work out. The fight itself would only use up one day (win or lose), but I'm not sure if helix would allow reallocation of armor for that one day like that. (Or possibly penalize cubes by ~5 for taking a day off of hunting.)
Now, let's assume we take a 5 cube penalty per day for pulling everyone off of hunting for two days to go after the Beholder. Applying that 5 cube penalty to the North and South (excluding Rural since that's all greens) drops their DS back to 9.6 and 10.4, respectively. Acceptable margin. Final cubes would be 153.5, which is also workable.
At that point, we'd need to buy 40 cubes just to be neutral on upkeep and spirals. Any cubes above that would be supporting Kofu and paying the magic cost of fighting the Beholder (estimating 50 for those together).
I don't see it viable to get above these numbers for hunting this turn. 165 is about the limit unless we want to blow open the risk and DS levels, and I don't think we want a youma in our backyard right when we're going after the Beholder. Once we do this, we're going to get almost no cubes from our territory next turn (as in, about 27 cubes if we let everything settle back to 0). On the other hand, we can mob Yokohama for cubes. We could harvest 250 cubes and barely budge the DS value.
Not counting the ongoing assignments, we have a mandatory 21 vets that pretty much have to come from our 'experienced' pool. Given the 35 vets for the above tactic, that leaves no vets for the Beholder fight if we try to use the above hunt strategy, unless we can extract those "two days" of direct work to fight the Beholder. Barring that, we have to drop to around the 140 cube harvest level to free up vets, which means buying another ~15 to make up the difference.
@inverted_helix - What rules should we adhere to as far as splitting up time in any of the above manner?
It does, and clan governments are known for being very decentralized... unless they have a very charismatic leader at their center, in which case they can become even more effective than a dictatorship, since those underneath are all doing their best to please the leader without needing extensive oversight.
Functionally, I'd guess this would result in something like CKII where you have feudal lords underneath our primary character, and we then have to worry about their motivations and what they are doing, and how loyal they are to us.
Having Mami as the head reduces the complexity a lot since loyalty among her inner circle is not a big issue right now. Although differences in opinion might matter (for example, Kyouko's resistance to Mami's ideals).
I don't know it it's the size making problems, or if it's more that the Tokyo crisis is causing real problems.
I believe we took that into account, since we didn't have any overhunting anywhere last turn.
I'm not sure what your numbers are, but I did post in an follow up post discussing the shortage of manpower, and we have plenty of trained greens. The problem is we don't have enough trained/experienced vets. But it may be possible if we use Elites.
Here are my numbers:
Current Rural DS = -5
Rural pack hunting risk w/ training = -2% risk (because you don't get the dispatch bonus)
Add full kevlar = -8% risk
Use RT = -3% risk
That means the risk acceptable from overhunting is +3% risk, which at half the DS would be +6 DS... if we were hunting up from 0 DS, but hunting up from -5 DS means we can hunt up to DS 11: (11 - 5)/2 = +3% risk.
To hunt up to DS 11 requires a hunt of 18.6666... = ((16/20)/.6)*8 + 8
A pack of trained greens led by an experienced hunter in a rural area gets: (Rural Base * Kyubey forecast * experienced hunter * Demon Scanning) = (.9)*1.1*1.1*1.2 = 1.3068 cubes per a girl.
18.6666... divided by 1.3068 = 14.2842...
Err... I ran the numbers repeatedly. What DS are you hunting up too? And not in the South? Obviously if you don't hunting up the South as well you won't get as much.
Would it be worth it for 195 cube harvest? Because that's totally possible if we can find the meguca months to do it.
Obviously, Seto Transportation would be in the urban areas. We have plenty of trained greens there is no need to try and conserve them. It's Vets that we don't have enough of.
Err what? Yeah, I know, that's your plan. I was figuring out how much we could get if we hunted to 18 DS. I'm not sure why you think your plan at 10 DS Pair hunting invalidates numbers for 18 DS Pack hunting....
Yeah... I know... you're not responding to anything I wrote. IRT just does not give us enough cubes to make it viable right now without taking on a lot of risk. I was pointing out the possibility of overhunting above 10 DS, which can be done without casualty risk.
You are posting numbers that have nothing to do with my suggestion.
Well that was my whole point, this kind of massive overhunt would only be viable if we are not trying to kill the Eyeball this month but waiting until the start of next month. I wanted to run the numbers and see if it was viable and it clearly is. Why you think that some other plan that I did not propose should have bearing on the viability of my plan? I don't understand.
165 cubes is not the limit with 0% casualty risk. You have substituted your own plan, found that your plan is not viable, and then concluded that my plan is not viable. Please respond to the actual suggestions I am making.
Now it is true that I haven't formulated it into a specific hunting proposal yet, right now I was just throwing around numbers to figure out what was possible if we remove one of our (self imposed) constraints.
Another possible restraint we could relax would be to allow risk during hunting and using IRT, but I doubt those numbers work well, as IRT can't get us as many cubes per casualty risk as just straight up letting DS go up does.
And the point of mobbing Yokohama for cubes was pretty much my point. The plan would be to do a massive alpha strike on the Eyeball at the very beginning of next month, spend a week or two herding all the Youma out of Yokohama, killing one when we can, and then massive hunting (including all the untrained greens) in Yokohama to get our cubes reserves back up.
Whatever minor bearing of the Eyeball attack schedule would have on the matter it would suggest the opposite.
That more risk during hunting is more acceptable if we delay attacking the Eyeball, allowing for more planning. Essentially suggesting we trade more risk during hunting for less risk when fighting the Eyeball.
If we don't wait to attack the Eyeball then I don't see the point in taking on even more risk during hunting. Unless somehow that translates into less risk when attacking the Eyeball.
I can see how delaying the attack can reduce risk in attacking the Eyeball so I'm willing to consider some extra risk during hunting (either with casualty risk above 0% or with DS above 10) if it allows us to delay the attack. But if you are not planning to delay the attack, then how is the extra risk during hunting going to benefit us.
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I'm sensing a lot of reluctance to go above 10 DS, but not really getting any discussion as to why.
It's not something I would normally propose, but things seem rather desperate right not, so I feel looking at solutions outside our normal operating practices is a good thing to do.
It's not something I would normally propose, but things seem rather desperate right not, so I feel looking at solutions outside our normal operating practices is a good thing to do.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
That's when Youma start spawning.
It's either risk youma spawns, or go in against the Beholder with likely insufficient intel and take ruinous casualties.
- Location
- The Beach
Youma spawn cutoff. Given our overall generally bad luck with this whole situation, I do not want the chance to have a youma spawn in our backyard while we are off putting out fires elsewhere.
So... hunting to DS 18 in the South and DS 16 is easily doable for Elite Pairs, they don't even need armor. Of course, we could hunt DS even high by giving them armor and letting the Vets take on some casualty risk. A 1% casualty risk would let us hunt to 20 DS.
To be more exact, that's when the chance to spawn a Youma rises above 0%. It's not automatic, and it's not a sure thing.
We've just always kept below 10 DS because we wanted a sure thing that they would not spawn. Just like we have kept casualty risk at 0% because we wanted to be certain no one would die.
I'm confused as to why you are willing to accept an increased casualty risk (which applies to every hunter) but not a accept a risk of a Youma spawning. Especially when we have Serena available to put it down for us if we do spawn one.
@inverted_helix I vaguely recall that we got some information about Youma spawning happening at an accelerating rate. Did we get that from Nagoya? I think they gave us a bunch of info on class 3 demons didn't they? Did that tell us how the risk of a Youma spawning increases with DS? Is it 1% risk at 11 DS? And then 8% at 18 DS? Or was it more like 0.1% at 11 DS, and 4% at 18 DS? Did they give us a rough estimate of when it becomes dangerous?
I understand the desire to avoid risk. We are very risk adverse, and I approve of that.
I'm pointing out that risk is risk. We have several different types of risk going on here:
1: Risk of attacking the Eyeball without sufficient preparation
2: Risk of running out of grief cubes
3: Risk of casualty rate by hunting without sufficient training
4: Risk of Youma spawning
It seems to me that #2 is the most catastrophic, so we need to avoid that, but that's not too hard.
#1 seems like the biggest unavoidable risk, and seems quite high, so I'd prefer to reduce that risk as much as possible.
Just doesn't seem to me like we get much risk reduction in #1 by allowing risk #3 to get bigger
However, by accepting some risk on #4, it seems to me that we can reduce our risk of #1 by quite a bit.
Since I prefer two smaller risks to one large risk, it looks to me like a promising optimization.
Especially since #4 is no longer a catastrophic risk, as we can have Serena on stand by to kill any Youma spawn when it is fresh born, well before it gains any significant powers.
To be more exact, that's when the chance to spawn a Youma rises above 0%. It's not automatic, and it's not a sure thing.
We've just always kept below 10 DS because we wanted a sure thing that they would not spawn. Just like we have kept casualty risk at 0% because we wanted to be certain no one would die.
I'm confused as to why you are willing to accept an increased casualty risk (which applies to every hunter) but not a accept a risk of a Youma spawning. Especially when we have Serena available to put it down for us if we do spawn one.
@inverted_helix I vaguely recall that we got some information about Youma spawning happening at an accelerating rate. Did we get that from Nagoya? I think they gave us a bunch of info on class 3 demons didn't they? Did that tell us how the risk of a Youma spawning increases with DS? Is it 1% risk at 11 DS? And then 8% at 18 DS? Or was it more like 0.1% at 11 DS, and 4% at 18 DS? Did they give us a rough estimate of when it becomes dangerous?
I understand the desire to avoid risk. We are very risk adverse, and I approve of that.
I'm pointing out that risk is risk. We have several different types of risk going on here:
1: Risk of attacking the Eyeball without sufficient preparation
2: Risk of running out of grief cubes
3: Risk of casualty rate by hunting without sufficient training
4: Risk of Youma spawning
It seems to me that #2 is the most catastrophic, so we need to avoid that, but that's not too hard.
#1 seems like the biggest unavoidable risk, and seems quite high, so I'd prefer to reduce that risk as much as possible.
Just doesn't seem to me like we get much risk reduction in #1 by allowing risk #3 to get bigger
However, by accepting some risk on #4, it seems to me that we can reduce our risk of #1 by quite a bit.
Since I prefer two smaller risks to one large risk, it looks to me like a promising optimization.
Especially since #4 is no longer a catastrophic risk, as we can have Serena on stand by to kill any Youma spawn when it is fresh born, well before it gains any significant powers.
Perhaps we should approach this from a different perspective.
Let's assume for a moment that we, somehow, are able to buy ourselves one month to prepare to attack the Eyeball.
What would we want to do to prepare?
That way we can make a list of the resources we would need, and that would go into us figuring out exactly what we would need to do elsewhere to afford that. That we can decide if we are willing to pay the price or not.
I know the first thing on my list would be that I would want to figure out if it always has companions or if it's ever alone, and if it is alone, does it have a pattern so that we can attack it when it is alone.
The second thing I would want to figure out is if it is no longer staying in the center of Tokyo, what is it's new habit? Is it patrolling somewhere? Does it always teleport places? Or did it just move back tot he center of things.
What else would others like to know?
Seems to me that I would need at least 1 teleporter (using the teleporting ball trick) a couple clairvoyants (preferably Taya), and probably Kyoclone for dangerous close up work.
Let's assume for a moment that we, somehow, are able to buy ourselves one month to prepare to attack the Eyeball.
What would we want to do to prepare?
That way we can make a list of the resources we would need, and that would go into us figuring out exactly what we would need to do elsewhere to afford that. That we can decide if we are willing to pay the price or not.
I know the first thing on my list would be that I would want to figure out if it always has companions or if it's ever alone, and if it is alone, does it have a pattern so that we can attack it when it is alone.
The second thing I would want to figure out is if it is no longer staying in the center of Tokyo, what is it's new habit? Is it patrolling somewhere? Does it always teleport places? Or did it just move back tot he center of things.
What else would others like to know?
Seems to me that I would need at least 1 teleporter (using the teleporting ball trick) a couple clairvoyants (preferably Taya), and probably Kyoclone for dangerous close up work.
A flat 15 trained greens, hunting in packs, with full kevlar, should yield 17.8 cubes, with DS increasing from -4.9 to 9.8, and a risk of -0.5%. 15.5 greens would increase DS to 10.7, and risk to -0.1%, for 18.4 cubes.
Given that that's the safety limit, it didn't seem worth messing with going above 10 DS for just half a cube, so moved on to the other sections.
OK, I vaguely remember doing stuff with the idea of having an experienced vet leading a team allowing the pack to use the experienced multiplier. However I have no idea where to start looking to see if I'm even remembering that correctly. Do you have a link? Or @inverted_helix - Did you allow this?
I experimented with Seto teleportion in the rural area to see if it was sufficient to free up enough greens to hunt the South area (along with the trained vets) without needing to pull in experienced vets. As I said, the conclusion was that it was not worth it.
I'm progressing along the lines from your starting assertions (rural to DS 10, south to DS 8, using untrained in those areas) to try to build up what's feasible, since you didn't provide numbers in your first post.
I'm having to figure out your plan from scratch because you did not provide sufficient data. I'm moving along each of your suggestions to see how it affects the results. Apparently I misunderstood your suggestion of IRT.
Dropping back to RT, North and South can push 16.5 and 17.7 DS, with 19.5 and 21 experienced vet packs, respectively, and, along with the rural count, yield 186.8 total cubes.
Now, what are the odds of a youma spawning?
We have no solid answer, aside from the fact that they start spawning above 10 DS, and if I remember correctly, are guaranteed at about 40 DS (might have been 30, but I'll be conservative here). That means about +3% chance per +1 DS.
Scaling the total DS gain for the amount over 10 DS, the North area (assuming no further gains from poaching) would spend about 42% of the month (12 days) above 10 DS. Assuming the same daily check as with the Beholder, and ramping up from 1.5% chance on the first day to 18% on the last day (hitting 16.5 DS), there's about 70% odds of a youma spawning in the North area. Odds for the South area are slightly higher.
So, about 90% chance of at least one youma spawn, and about 50% chance of two youma spawns in our territory due to that overhunting.
Factoring in the morale hit from deliberately overhunting, from one or even two youma spawns, potential deaths among the less experienced members that might be hit by the youma when that's supposed to be the 'safe' area for our group, magical costs of killing the youma, slowed hunting while the youma are dealt with, and any other factors, I don't feel that overhunting provides sufficient benefit to be worth the downsides.
- Location
- The Beach
IIRC Kyubey is keeping track of it, it's just that it was able to jump from Downtown to where Kyoclone was in one teleport. We may be able to grill him on it's movements as far as prep goes.
We wanna try to get Kaoru up to Elite this month.
@boonerunner had a post for Kyoclone scouting of the Beholder.
@Kinematics you are vastly over estimating the risk of Youma spawns at low DS.
We know that after it attacked Kyouclone, it spent about an hour sitting there, then returned to the center of Tokyo. Given that that also gives it the greatest clairvoyance/teleport range relative to the population, and that it gets the most benefit from its filter feeding by staying in the densest population area, I can't imagine it doing much other than staying in the central Tokyo area.
It's the best estimate I can make, based on the data we have (that I am aware of). Do you have any references indicating it scales differently? Or that it's not a daily check, the way the Beholder interrupt was?
The quote literally right above the thing you responded to.
Sorry. Since you put the quote above your response, I assumed you were quoting the part of my post that you were responding to, and didn't even look at it. I normally expect a quoted reference to follow your comment.
However the quote is ambiguous about one thing: "one per territory unit". The quote doesn't define a territory unit, unless it's 1 per cube capacity value (a reasonable assumption), and thus a size 37 territory would be expected to generate 37 youma per month at +40 DS. At around DS 17, an exponential (X2) growth rate would give a 5.4% chance per territory unit. Depending on how generation is handled, that could be an 87% chance, or an average of 2 youma per month.
On the other hand, that's at that particular DS, and the DS will be changing over the course of the month. Extrapolating the growth rates over the time expected to be over 10 DS, and using the X2 progression, there's a 20% to 30% chance of a youma spawn for a final DS between 16.5 and 17.5, and a vaguely 50% chance of a youma spawn between both North and South if overhunting both.
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Well, I do remember that helix specifically permitted it, at a ratio of 1 to 1 for pairs and 1 to 6 for packs.
I really do not want to go back through the thread looking for the quote though....
Skelm found the quote. It's not linear risk growth, it's exponential, so lower levels are much less riskier than the higher ones. Additionally the check appears to be once a month (as would make sense considering it's a monthly DS shift thing). And, as you recall, the chance approaches 1 at 40+ DS.
So that makes me feel that anything below the 1/3 mark (or +20 DS) isn't terribly risky. We've even been around 18 DS in the past, we just didn't get any spawns (that was before we had good DS measurement). Consdiering how bad our luck has been lately I suppose we could get one or two Youma spawns, but Serena should be able to handle that much easily.
Why did you even jump to the conclusion that it would be a daily check anyway? None of the other hunting or DS modifiers are daily checks. They are all monthly checks.
The Beholder attacks were daily, but that is because it was a Mini-turn event, not part of the regular monthly cycle.
1: What morale hit from over hunting? We never got a morale hit from overhunting in the past. Why would we suddenly get one now?
2: Yes, there is risk, but considering that we will be on the look out, that we are talking about using trained vets, that we have a dispatch team, and that we are constantly tracking miasma, and that we use teleport support, and that we are hunting in packs, the safest method available - how likely is it that the Youma will spawn on top of hunters without girls having any chance to evacuate before it does? Is that risk greater than the risk of not preparing adequately to attack the Eyeball? That's the choice we are making here, and yes we lack information to know for sure, but I'd much rather take a risk with a Class 3 than a Class 4. We can even issue barrier charms and teleport charms if we are truly worried about it to give an extra edge.
3: What magical costs of killing the Youma? Usually a Youma produces more cubes than it costs to kill. Plus we won't have to be worrying about dragging around an interdiction device, and can just teleport drop Serena and Co on top of it as soon as it is born. Serena usually has no trouble killing single Youma.
The real question here is:
Is the risk of a Youma spawn or two worth it to provide time for extra preparation for the Eyeball?
Assuming the risk of a Youma spawn is only 20% to 30% then I lean towards yes. It seems to me that 2 Youma spawn or so this month, with Serena on stand by to immediately suppress them is not a major risk.
The far greater risk in my mind is if the Youma in Tokyo decide to start following the refugees (because the food source in Tokyo is no longer big enough). On the other hand that was my original fear, and that didn't happen at all.
And it's not just the chance scouting that benefits us, we'd also be able to take the time to do some diplomacy and see if we can get some extra help for attacking the Eyeball. Will the Kofu Elite join in? Can we get some more Tokyo Elites? Maybe the Enlightened can pull some mojo out of their hats and give us some key information on when and where to attack. And then be able to actually plan out our attack with actual knowledge of what our forces are instead of having to assume that Nagoya will provide us X amount of elites, when we really have no idea.
We could also maybe send delegations to the Kyoshu and Hokkaido regions to see if they can take any refugees in. Even if they only take a dozen or so girls it would be worth it.
@inverted_helix Can you confirm and clarify the assumptions being made here about Youma spawn risks?