That balancer role usually needs to be pretty damn strong though, and we are likely to have the lowest population of any group.
Actually, it's more important the that balancer be flexible and mobile. Historically the balancer position in Europe was played by Great Britain. Britain propaganda aside, Britain was almost always the weakest or 2nd weakest great power in Europe (in pure military power, and
certainly in demographics).
Their advantage was due to first, geography providing them a shield against retaliatory attacks; and second, a superior tech/trade/financial system.
While we would not have the channel shield, we would have a demographic advantage in Tokyo, due to nearness, and the ability to integrate our Tokyo territory more closely. This also works with our personality as a "nation." Thus Tokyo territory would be far less likely to rebel against us than other groups controlling Tokyo territory.
This turn I am taking the first steps needed to get on the path to a tech/finance/trade superiority position.
We are actually probably pretty well placed to pull off being the balancer... assuming we can integrate the Coalition and Areas 15/16.
We need to manage to get that happening either before, or right after seizing Tokyo.
Uh... you do realize that every "balance of power" system winds up failing catastrophically, yes?
The closest thing to that sort of system was the Concert of Europe in the 19th Century, and the end result of that was a shit-load of little wars followed by the World Wars when it finally failed.
Don't be so dramatic. Every system winds up failing eventually. Empires can fail catastrophically too. (Also, you miss the other historical major balance of power system: The Warring States).
The Concert of Europe lasted almost 50 years, which isn't that bad, and gives us plenty of time to prepare for it.
Besides, the main thing driving my decision to go for balance of power is that there simply is no other acceptable option if we are to save Tokyo (unless the GM decides to allow us to crit on Humora).
Hegemony by the Serenes? We don't have the strength.
Hegemony by someone else? (Nagoya?) Other groups will object, heck, I'll object. Far too undesirable.
That means next best choice is Balance of Power (with the best setup we can so we can play balancer - since the other groups will likely be thinking hegemony, we might actually be able to get a decent deal here).
A Balance of Power works fine when a strong party plays the balancer role. But if a weak party wants to play the balancer role, they need a bunch of trustworthy allies in order to pull it off. Please note that we have a distinct lack of both strength and allies.
Again, this is false. Historically, Great Britain was the least populated, and not extremely powerful in their military. Nor did Great Britain have allies - they were even proud of it. They made allies as needed, based on appeals to the interests of the other party, not based on historical alliances. Historically Britain was an enemy of Russia and France, and an ally to Germany. But when the balance of power shifted, Britain easily switched sides.
Basically, any system you design has to take into account that there will be conflict. Design it so that the conflict remains limited in nature, rather than flaring up into massive wars.
The MSY had the best approach, to be honest -- incorporate everyone into a single system with a fairly robust, responsive bureaucracy, and strong democratic traditions.
But that required Homura around, was formed from half a dozen small, long-term stable magical girl teams who allied together, and spent decades expanding its reach in a system without demonic adaptation or the bizarre way that Class 3 demons work in this setting.
Basically, this setting is fucked.
Exactly. The will be conflict no matter what we do. So out of the choices available what poison do we want?
38 million dead in Tokyo, a collapse of the Japanese economy, refugees, etc?
Accept the hegemony of another stronger state? (Like Nagoya?)
Or try to setup a balance of power to buy us couple decades before the next great war that will rewrite the rules again?
I choose door number three.
Territorial squabbles I can see, but I don't know about Class 3 events. After all, the biggest fish we know right now is supremely, militantly anti-Class 3, so they probably won't tolerate any DS bombing campaigns.
I'm just worried about a straight up PvP conquest by a neighbor that outnumbers us by likely 2 or 3 to 1, already had a number of vassal states, and is apparently very good at PvP.
Remember that it appears that the Nagoya vassalage is a very weak vassalage. I'm not sure that the Nagoya vassals would agree to attack a peaceable magical girl group. We'll have more information after this turn if we can get good information from area 14.
Also, I suspect that early on, our balancing act will be to back Nagoya heavily in conflict with other groups, rather than opposing them. Possibly even avoiding outright war, and instead supplying Nagoya with extra cubes and charms to finance their conflicts. Why should Nagoya attack their grief cube banker?
So I believe the collective opinion is that Elder Haman's Partition plan is untenable?
I wonder if it would be possible for all the currently surviving girls in Tokyo to form one group with each other?
No, rather I think people are all in agreement that it's extremely difficult and risky.
My defense is that it's the least undesirable of the likely successful options presented to us.
Very unlikely. There is no trust there at all.
Exactly, this is the whole reason outside force has to be exerted to convince the Incubators that eliminating the class 3 demons is a one time expense.
This is more tenable than trying to govern Tokyo directly, but it does still run into some of the same problems. The girls in Tokyo have a reputation for fighting other girls, so would we try to police them (which was basically Elder Haman's suggestion) or would we ignore any other objectionable behaviors other than overhunting? Note that if we only punish overhunting and ignore the causes for it, then the behavior will continue. And how would we enforce the "no overhunting" rule? Would we follow Nagoya's example of instantly degemming suspected offenders? How would we differentiate between actual offenders and victims of poaching? Would Rotating Tactics be allowed (note that this would make it harder to detect overhunting before it creates Class 3s)?
Presumably, we'd need to answer these questions to Kyuubey's satisfaction before he would consider sending in Kesi.
Well, I was planning that this plan would claim to be merely regulating (partitioned) Tokyo, but in the end that will become governance. Regulation implies the power to govern, and where the power to govern exists it will be exploited. The Incubators would surely expect this to be governance to be persuasive.
In order to maintain stability, we need to maintain safety. That means we can't introduce RT just yet, because they don't have the infrastructure to support the extra risk.
Viable infrastructure:
Demon finding training: 1 vet per 20 meguca, means 1.5 vets for +20% hunting returns.
Dispatch (basic): 1 vet per 20 meguca, means 1.5 vets for +25% hunting returns (for 6 months).
With those hunting bonuses, vets hunting in pairs can harvest 3.48 cubes per vet. 11.5 hunting vets would harvest exactly 40 cubes (territory size). Total assigned hunters plus support would be 14.5, leaving half the population free for other actions.
I think that for the first three months we would want to use pack hunting methods in Tokyo. For a few reasons. First for greater safety, and second because it will use a larger percentage of them on hunting, allowing us more time to inoculate them with the Serene ways and culture. The busier they are hunting and focused on survival, the less time to feel resentful. Additionally, pack hunting helps spread that culture faster than pair hunting. After three months, then we might want to switch, so that they can get more money coming in, and sense that things are improving.
Casualty rates:
Basic for vet pairs is 11%. (Hardened) Leather armor should be relatively easy to acquire. 2% shields should be easy to acquire. We can assume they've had the equivalent of combat training. They can commit to training in defending others and pair combat. And another 1% from dispatch.
3% + 2% + 2% + 2% + 2% + 1% = 12%. There's flexibility in training vs cell phones vs other things, but in general it should be possible to hit 0% casualty rates for basic hunting.
Again, Pack hunting the first three months will allow the slower build up to 100% safety at the pair level.
Set up a council for managing the city. 1 person per m-group must participate (and gets a vote), plus high council positions filled by surrounding significant groups (eg: us, Nagoya, Kofu, etc; size 50+ groups). These manage merge requests, conflicts and complaints between groups, and scheduling things like large trade rounds. Note: merged groups do not get 2 votes, only the same 1 as anyone else. This is a balance against their greater meguca efficiency and general power.
Potentially set up some sort of challenge arrangement that allows groups to vent frustration or win glory.
Enforcement: Violations or aggressive actions should be dealt with by a coalition of all other groups. No group is large enough that they wouldn't get put in cold storage if they do anything to risk another class 3 calamity.
Minor violations of unknown origin (eg: poachers) can be sniffed out by specialized teams, paid for in meguca-time (not cubes). Identified violations are paid in cubes.
Set up an overall constitution to guide the council. Set up conditions for when the Tokyo area is considered sufficiently stabilized that the high council (those groups that are not part of Tokyo itself) may be dissolved.
Absurd. Why would any magical girl group (expect ours) decide to support such a scheme? Why should they spend blood, grief, and money to just create a future more powerful rival to themselves in Tokyo?
We might as well go for complete Serene hegemony if we want to propose perfect solutions instead of identifying the least unacceptable viable solution.
Also, I remain sad that no one else is considering poor Serena. Seriously, there's no need for any of our girls to enter her range. Put her on a boat in the middle of Tokyo bay and the aura won't even reach the shore.
How would that help? How is Serena supposed to kill all the class 3 demons without leaving her boat?
Note: The heavy enforcement option in my above suggestion is similar to Haman's "dogpile the defender", except that instead of using a single enforcer nation (such as us), it uses all of the rest of the Tokyo groups, since they have a vested interest in making sure no one rocks the boat too much.
This is inaccurate description of my plan. The point of the phrase "dogpile" is to imply more than one person is involved in the "piling on." My point was that violation of the agreement not to use class 3 demons as a weapon would result in every other group in Tokyo having an incentive to "dogpile" the offender. Especially if as the balancer, we offer to throw our power to back such a disciplinary action.
As long as the balancer is reliable to act against actors that threaten the system, then other actors are more prone to consider disciplining the offender (since they know they have an ally), and offending actors are more likely to avoid the offense in the first place.
Plus, at least for a long time, Nagoya will likely be the most vocal anti-class 3 demon group and will take the lead in such efforts. Which is why my guess is that the most likely early balancer position will be backing Nagoya, not fighting them. Can't say for certain though until we find out something about the other groups. Truthfully a lot of this is preliminary speculation. First we need to see what the other groups are like, then we'll know how likely a partition plan will work.
If it turns out a grand alliance is unfeasible, then I will shift to supporting the long shot of tracking down Homura.
The Serene might be willing to put forward some effort towards this sort of thing, but other organizations will be much more hesitant. If we're going to sell a plan for rehabilitating Tokyo to the other large organizations in Japan, it needs to be a plan that either requires very little effort or else one that provides great gain.
Exactly, and rehabilitating Tokyo will be costly. Which is why I see the partition plan as the only currently viable one for getting the aid of other organizations. It gives other organizations great gain.
