Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

What should I do regarding a change in system?

  • Notgreat's proposed simplification of hunting, leave rest intact.

    Votes: 5 55.6%
  • Chapter system vastly simplifying everything.

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
Based on past data, they believe that demon strength as measured in your terms must be at minimum +10 for it to be possible for a Class 3 demon to originate from native population, though meiosis of a migratory one can still produce more in such areas. Chance of one spawning starts off low and increases exponentially. It is projected that by +40 strength the number of Class 3 demons reaches an average one per territory unit per month, though there is a lack of data at the high end to determine accuracy, and at that level differentiation can be difficult.
Well then. It looks like +10 is the danger line. The chance starts low, so we could probably overhunt a bit past +10 without much danger, but it becomes obscenely dangerous once it gets to levels like +40. We'll probably stick to +10 until we figure out tactics that would allow us to take on Class 3 demons safely. Which will probably be necessary if we intend to rehabilitate Toyko. That's a long-term goal, though, considering how slow our current rate of expansion is. Although I wouldn't be surprised if we see more wandering Class 3s.

53 Class 3 demons originated in Tokyo during the initial upward swing in their spawning, at that time there were 107 Grade 3 Contracted countering them and 1693 total Contracted in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. Early losses were substantial. Coordination and force concentration improved survival rate after initial losses, which also diminished their rate of origination by resulting in reduced demon strength, but meiosis has kept demon population up. Currently there is an estimated 37 Class 3 demons in the region and 45 Grade 3 Contracted with 1200 total Contracted despite unusually aggressive recruitment. Remaining Contracted have switched to mostly guerrilla activity with few fixed concentrations, and those that do exist are behind many layers of concealment and protection.
If we want to recruit some new girls, I should imagine that there are a lot of girls in Tokyo who would jump at the chance to move somewhere safer.

A Grade 4 Contracted clearing the area would be preferable due to the short term impact on harvests of such an action. However there are many locations requiring their intervention at this time and it is difficult in the best of times to convince them to act.
Huh. Well, I do believe that is the first confirmed report of the existence of Legendary Magical Girls. And they do appear to live up to the name: one Legendary is capable of clearing out the demons that 107 Elites could not. Maybe this will present an opportunity for Mami to meet Homura.
 
I'll try to comment more when I get back to the States and my actual computer, but for now I'll just add in my opinion that our acquisition of Iwata absolutely was deceitful: we met the kidnappers under a false flag of truce them ambushed them, and then we strong-armed even the unrelated meguca in the area into joining us or be forced out of their territory, not because it was the right thing to do, but because we were greedy and wanted enough territory to sustain our population.

That said, it's really, really weird that we have so little idea of what's going on around us, while everyone else seems to know who we are. Shouldn't we have some idea of who is around us, without having to spend full meguca-months on it, just from random gossip and osmosis? There's a suspicious lack of socializing going on, especially considering we're talking about dozens of teenage schoolgirls here, many of whom have been megucas for two and a half years now.
 
I'll try to comment more when I get back to the States and my actual computer, but for now I'll just add in my opinion that our acquisition of Iwata absolutely was deceitful: we met the kidnappers under a false flag of truce them ambushed them, and then we strong-armed even the unrelated meguca in the area into joining us or be forced out of their territory, not because it was the right thing to do, but because we were greedy and wanted enough territory to sustain our population.

That said, it's really, really weird that we have so little idea of what's going on around us, while everyone else seems to know who we are. Shouldn't we have some idea of who is around us, without having to spend full meguca-months on it, just from random gossip and osmosis? There's a suspicious lack of socializing going on, especially considering we're talking about dozens of teenage schoolgirls here, many of whom have been megucas for two and a half years now.
Doesn't your own post answer your question?

The last time a Puella Magi group met with us, they got ganked and press ganged. Can't imagine many others are interested in replicating their 'success' through making contact with us. We probably have 'Here be dragons' sign hung up over our territory on their maps.
 
Just to confirm, this is a completely different subject and has nothing to do with our kidnapping situation?
Yes. It was a topic change. I pretty much draw my motivation on writing from omakes and discussion in the thread so I try to encourage it.

Dear God. The Tokyo region has lost 62 Elites since the initial upswing.
Something to point out is that the total numbers at the start vs end don't include how many were generated via reproduction/promotion. So the apparent 16 for 62 ratio doesn't really tell you at what ratio they've been trading. Since the demons have been reproducing faster than Elites get replaced.

Huh. Well, I do believe that is the first confirmed report of the existence of Legendary Magical Girls. And they do appear to live up to the name: one Legendary is capable of clearing out the demons that 107 Elites could not. Maybe this will present an opportunity for Mami to meet Homura.
To a degree this is also a matter of concentration of force is something to keep in mind. If you managed to throw that many elites at a Legendary at once there'd be significant chance of Golden BB effect.

just wondering, what class are Mami, Kyoko, Sayaka, and Homura considered?
Mami and Kyouko are Grade 3, Elites. Sayaka is Grade 2 Veteran. Homura with all her weapons and tons of magic fueling her time stop is Grade 4 Legendary.

Rebellion didn't happen, and Mami is less powerful than she demonstrates there. I'm way off in the AU at this point so please don't bring up another power level debate. I think Mami's power level has been argued three times in this thread despite the fact that I've already specified that I'm AUing that.

and then we strong-armed even the unrelated meguca in the area into joining us or be forced out of their territory, not because it was the right thing to do, but because we were greedy and wanted enough territory to sustain our population.
Yeah people tend to forget that Ayako, Mariko, and Akane had nothing to do with the kidnappers beyond proximity.
 
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What kind of class 4 is Homura? Is she just strong enough to qualify or is she very well qualified for her grade?

Also the others if it's not inconvenient.
 
Doesn't your own post answer your question?

The last time a Puella Magi group met with us, they got ganked and press ganged. Can't imagine many others are interested in replicating their 'success' through making contact with us. We probably have 'Here be dragons' sign hung up over our territory on their maps.
I think you're getting confused.
There were 2 independent groups in that area. One of them were the kidnappers, and we threw them out of the territory. The others we talked into joining with some intimidation, but we weren't being explicitly threatening. Hell, we even paid them for it.
We ganked the kidnappers, but they opened negotiations with a kidnapping. I'd say they already demonstrated a lack of diplomacy, we just escalated.

Never once has another group attempted to talk to us. There have been a few probing attacks, but never any scouting (that we know of) nor any diplomacy aside from the one time with the kidnappers.

As for the reason why information doesn't spread, how would it spread? Meguca are by default hostile to those not in their group, thus eliminating the casual gossip spread of information, and the incubators don't seem especially interested in creating an information network.
 
What kind of class 4 is Homura? Is she just strong enough to qualify or is she very well qualified for her grade?

Also the others if it's not inconvenient.
Basically any Legendary has something that makes them broken, the sort of thing that you can't really counter. Like Homura's time stop when you don't even know she's there before you're dead. Other examples Aranfan came up with that would be similar are things like Irresistible mind control, grief control, etc. Plus there's the usual like total invulnerability. Trying to grade them is difficult because it's about the circumstances as much as the people at that point. Homura as she displays in canon would be barely in the Grade though.

Kyouko is on the higher end of Elite if you count her clone as part of her combat kit, pretty unexceptional if you count her as two separate elites. Mami is not as good in combat as Kyouko at this point since she's kind of been in a leadership position for a couple years. She's above average as well though.

Sayaka is pretty much typical veteran but she's never been pressed here.

Speaking of the omakes, how do they work? It seems like they offer bonuses to our current turn but I'm not sure how they work? Are we supposed to write omakes that are relevant to the current turn?
You can write omakes about anything in the world I've been painting: past, present, or future. Though omake reward varies depending on how good it is.

The others we talked into joining with some intimidation, but we weren't being explicitly threatening. Hell, we even paid them for it.
Eh you were pretty obvious about not leaving them any other option. Just giving them the choice of join and get paid, or don't join and get their asses kicked at minimum.
 
Doesn't your own post answer your question?

The last time a Puella Magi group met with us, they got ganked and press ganged. Can't imagine many others are interested in replicating their 'success' through making contact with us. We probably have 'Here be dragons' sign hung up over our territory on their maps.
So how does anyone know that? Best I can tell, the default option when any two meguca so much as spot each other is immediate combat; certainly WE haven't heard anything about any outside individuals or groups. Whatever mysterious gossip channel our neighbors have all gotten our horrible reputation from should also give us some intel on our own neighbors: this isn't a computer game where the computer can cheat and have everyone talk to each other, but lock us out for no reason.

Anyway, it doesn't work that way: the Serene has dozens of members, and some of them, like Seto's group, were not members until recently. Even if our group does walk around blatantly advertising that they're part of the Evil Empire, which they don't, we should still have access to all the old chatter and secret lines of communication that Seto's group had. The same applies to ask our other members.
 
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So how does anyone know that? Best I can tell, the default option when any two meguca so much as spot each other is immediate combat;
I don't get your argument here really. I mean initially you seem to be questioning why you aren't getting any just second hand information from others. Then if offered an explanation that others might view you poorly, you counter with they shouldn't be talking to each other either.

If you accept that meguca don't talk to each other much because of tribalism and riskiness of talking to outsiders in general, why do you question why you don't get random rumors from nearby groups?

Anyways for the most part you aren't getting intel about your neighbors unless you go looking simply because of that tribalism aspect. You aren't of their group and so talking to you is just inherently risky. They're teenage girls but keep in mind there's only 1 meguca for every 20k people. They can have non-meguca friends quite easily, and those are friends they don't have to compete for limited resources with.

this isn't a computer game where the computer can cheat and have everyone talk to each other, but lock us out for no reason.
I feel like this implies a degree of level playing field that isn't the case. This isn't designed like a computer game where everyone starts at the same time with exactly the same resources and tech tree and options. As the math done a few pages back showed, if you are willing to accept some risk the amount of manpower you can apply increases radically (though granted loyalty takes a bit of a hit). Or imagine for instance if you have as one of your members a millionaire heiress. (Or just use your magic for crime and manage some incredible heist.)

Everyone is not working from the same playbook you are. That is the flip side of this not being a computer game. (Also on a totally meta note, I don't plot out and run turns for the other groups every turn, I just kind of ballpark it. Since it would be a lot of extra effort you wouldn't ever even see.)
 
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A Grade 4 Contracted clearing the area would be preferable due to the short term impact on harvests of such an action. However there are many locations requiring their intervention at this time and it is difficult in the best of times to convince them to act.

Hmm, this implies heavily that Homura isn't in Tokyo, or if she is that she isn't doing more than defending her own little fiefdom.
 
@inverted_helix What I'm getting at is we can't have it both ways. If nobody talks to anyone, there's no way for our supposedly bad reputation to spread, and no reason for our neighbors to be hostile to us. If people do actually talk to each other, just not to us, well we have a large number of people who until very recently were not part of our group, so we should be able to get some intel from them.
 
@inverted_helix What I'm getting at is we can't have it both ways. If nobody talks to anyone, there's no way for our supposedly bad reputation to spread, and no reason for our neighbors to be hostile to us. If people do actually talk to each other, just not to us, well we have a large number of people who until very recently were not part of our group, so we should be able to get some intel from them.
I suspect that tribalism is the primary reason for our lack of Intel and that the same holds true for other groups. But in addition to that, it's quite possible that the girls we kicked out have been badmouthing us at every opportunity. Something like this omake, except that Naru could probably make us look even worse by "neglecting" to mention some of the minor details like the kidnapping. Especially since this omake asked for a bonus to diplomacy due to terrifying rumors being spread.
 
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I suspect that tribalism is the primary reason for our lack of Intel and that the same holds true for other groups. But in addition to that, it's quite possible that the girls we kicked out have been badmouthing us at every opportunity. Something like this omake, except that Naru could probably make us look even worse by "neglecting" to mention some of the minor details like the kidnapping. Especially since this omake asked for a bonus to diplomacy due to terrifying rumors being spread.

Your links send me to the OP and a reply with the omake quoted.
 
I suspect that tribalism is the primary reason for our lack of Intel and that the same holds true for other groups. But in addition to that, it's quite possible that the girls we kicked out have been badmouthing us at every opportunity. Something like this omake, except that Naru could probably make us look even worse by "neglecting" to mention some of the minor details like the kidnapping. Especially since this omake asked for a bonus to diplomacy due to terrifying rumors being spread.
That's possible, but if it were the case then that means the Naru girls must have traveled around personally in order to badmiuth the Serene, somehow managing to locate and peacefully meet up with over half a dozen hostile meguca tribes, on their way to wherever they're headed. That's a huge stretch for a pair who thought that kidnapping was a valid form of diplomacy.
 
Possible reasons why we don't have access to the meguca rumor mill, while everyone else does?

All of our recruits that had previously held territory are engaged in a white mutiny, and aren't passing on the rumors they receive.

All of said recruits simultaneously lost all of the contact information they had for their previous acquaintances.

Every single recruit just so happened to have been isolated from the social network.

Completely undetectable meguca have been spying on us for over a year, for the purpose of gossiping.

The meguca rumor mill is entirely powered by Kyuubey, who has been working to disrupt the formation of large, expanding groups of magical girls.

and finally...

<QM Kyuubey Voice> You never asked. </QM Kyuubey Voice>
 
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That's possible, but if it were the case then that means the Naru girls must have traveled around personally in order to badmiuth the Serene, somehow managing to locate and peacefully meet up with over half a dozen hostile meguca tribes, on their way to wherever they're headed. That's a huge stretch for a pair who thought that kidnapping was a valid form of diplomacy.
Even if "at every opportunity" just includes two or three groups (Area 11 or Area 13, for instance), that's still a significant headache for us. Especially if they are the impetus behind the recent attack (though this has yet to be determined).
 
Huge reply; spoilered for size.

Theft has always been considered a lower tier of violence than kidnapping. Theft through deceit and avoiding direct confrontation has always been considered a lower tier of violence than mugging.
Invalid argument. You've changed the term being debated from 'hostilities' to 'violence'.

The kidnappers were directly threatening Kaori's life. Pay up, or the girl gets it. Most moral systems consider that a greater evil than an act that indirectly makes things more dangerous and threatens lives of others that way.
If I were going to argue this point, I'd ask that you actually define the moral systems that you allude to by saying "most", and give a proper explanation for why you believe that they support your position.

If I were to use Utilitarianism, for example (since it's one of the most popular forms of consequentialism, which is itself the foundation of the vast majority of non-religious moral systems), it's trivial to show that the potential death of 40 people in exchange for modest benefits for a handful of people is far more evil than the potential death of 1 person for the potential saving of 1 person.

In other words, don't just handwave away your justification by alluding to this cloud of "most moral systems"; please provide actual examples to support your argument.

ANY DEMAND WAS UNREASONABLE. I don't care if they asked for a penny.

I'm hungry, is it then reasonable for me to go kidnap someone's sister and demand a burger? Oh, I only asked for a burger and not a million dollars, so that makes it okay? My demand was reasonable?

Their need is irrelevant to the moral question.
You seem to be heavily conflating the idea of 'reasonable' and 'moral'. What they did was immoral; what they demanded was not unreasonable. In your above example, demanding a burger is reasonable (silly, even). 'Reasonable' depends on the effective cost to you relative to what you gain, and its 'appropriateness' to the situation. Whether you like the idea of giving up the cost is irrelevant. Whether you deem the act to be moral is irrelevant. EG: A 10% interest rate on a credit card reasonable, even if you believe charging interest (ie: usury) is immoral, and you'd really rather not pay any interest at all.

"Any demand was unreasonable" is a fundamentally false statement. You can say that "Any demand was unacceptable", and that would be valid (for you, at least, based on your moral boundaries), but 'reasonable' is an entirely separate question.

Your further arguments seem to continue to have this same fundamental conflation of ideas. You're arguing against things that I'm not saying, and you're arguing points and terms that do not mean what you think they mean.

I am in no way saying that the kidnapping was moral; it was certainly immoral. However immorality has no relevance to the argument of reasonableness, and is only tangential to the means of responding to the action.

Meanwhile, the response chosen has its own evaluation on the reasonable and moral scale, which you seem to be ignoring, presuming that any response you choose is by definition moral and reasonable and acceptable.

That makes them the villains. No further moral analysis required.
This is what I believe is the fundamental flaw in most people's approach to moral questions. "If the other person is in the wrong then ___" — and they simply stop thinking at that point, treating any action or choice they make as beyond needing its own evaluation, as intrinsically moral simply because the other's action was immoral. It absolves them of all wrongdoing, no matter what (potentially horrific) actions they take. It is the nightmare of the White Knight who believes they can do no wrong, solely because they can point at the wrong thing someone else did.

Furthermore, our first resort is not violence. Our attackers are the ones that have resorted to violence first. When we had a grief cube shortage did we go out and rob other girls? Did we kidnap others?
We'll just conveniently ignore the times we forcibly took other people's territory.

Also, what action would have been proposed had we had, say, a reserve of 5 cubes, and could only harvest about 30 cubes for 40 girls? You mention the grief cube shortage, and then equate it to those of the other group as if the stress and dynamics of the situation were identical, when they were not.
The root of the problem is that our enemy believes they can extort resources from us through violence at low cost. We must ensure that they reassess and decide that the cost is actually very high, so that they will not do it again. Otherwise they will keep on doing this.
A valid statement.
That means we must hurt them. If we don't we might as well surrender and let them enslave us.
An exaggerated and incomplete conclusion.

We cannot just negotiate. If we do so it will only invite further kidnappings and more demands. If the enemy is too strong to defeat completely then we must find their weakness and hurt them as much as possible. That will be a warning to them that we will be no easy meat and they need to look elsewhere. If they are truly rational, then they will not even kill Mariko and Sora as that would waste their leverage.
This makes quite a few assumptions.

1) That the kidnapping demands are transitive. That is, what they gain from the kidnapping is what anyone who might potentially consider such an action would also want, and that granting them that will lead to similar actions by others.

2) That we actually grant them what they ask for. The simplistic either/or view ignores the possibility of any alternative route, where the kidnappers do not get what they ask for, but we are still able to resolve the situation.

3) That it's 'OK' for the kidnappers to continue their actions, as long as it's not against us.

4) That violence is the only language of information exchange that allows one to pressure the opponent into ending their action.

5) That any followup attempt by any other group (ie: anyone else who might see this as an excuse for them to try their hand at kidnapping as well) will be able to do so just as easily as this group. In other words, it assumes that we will not have learned anything from the incident, nor changed our behavior so as to prevent it from happening again.


The following section is going to take a bit to get through.
No. I am not advocating amoralism. I am advocating justice, which is harsh and brutal. You reap what you sow. Tit for tat.

That is the core of all morality.

Which advanced game theory clearly supports. Nothing beats tit for tat. Nothing. Oh, a year ago or so someone discovered that in a very specific circumstance, tit for tat could be beaten by a slightly refined tit for tat with forgiveness. The fact remains though that tit for tat is what works. It's what works according to game theory. It's what works according to real life history.

In fact it is our enemy that is favoring amoralism. Nothing they are doing suggests any morality. Nor did Naru demonstrate morality. They both demonstrate an amoral belief that might makes right.
First, you're conflating morality with justice, and the enforcement of a legal and/or moral system.

Justice is not at the core of all morality; morality is (presumably) at the core of justice. Essentially, you're assuming the conclusion.

The Prisoner's Dilemma (the puzzle that uses the tit-for-tat solution, abbreviated PD) is not the entirety of game theory. It is merely the single simplest example of game theory, that is used to illustrate what game theory is about to those who are not familiar with it.

Tit-for-tat does help explain a general behavioral tendency. However one must recall that it is a solution pattern for a problem for which there are only two actions possible. Once there are more than two actions possible, the complexity of the problem space grows exponentially, and the solution patterns become far more nuanced. Once you place it in an evolutionary space (where there are more than just two players in the entire 'world'), the number of stable solutions (ie: ones that won't die off due to all other active solutions beating them) grows. And all of that complexity develops when you're still only working with a single puzzle problem; other puzzles have different problem scopes, so a single 'behavior' (such as tit-for-tat) won't necessarily give you an optimal solution in all problem spaces. That's the point where 'morality' starts to evolve.

And even then, tit-for-tat only gives you scope for acting exactly the same way as the opponent. Disproportionate response is an entirely separate pattern.

When I noted that basic game theory is amoral, that's because the end goal of most basic puzzles is, "That which gives me the greatest reward." Assuming you defined cooperation as the 'moral' action in PD, tit-for-tat encourages immoral behavior (defecting) for as long as that will give you the greatest reward. It's designed to encourage the other player to cooperate so that you can also cooperate and get the best reward, but it makes no distinction between the two choices available to you, as far as morality is concerned.

For example, you can use a PD model for two thieves to determine whether to cooperate and rob a house, or defect and tell the police. The greatest reward for the two of them will always be to cooperate, whereas if one defects, it's in the interest of the other one to defect as well, as it will be more beneficial to turn in evidence on the other thief than to try to rob the house on their own and get caught. So game theory (on this extremely simplistic scale) supports immoral actions just as easily as it supports moral actions, and tit-for-tat does not change that.

Our current enemy does not appear to be acting amorally. From helix's comment, they favor a particular rational morality (the outlines of which are pretty easy to guess). We will not be able to assert moral or amoral motivations until we get more info on what's going on in game.


It is not bad faith. The law explicitly says that if someone is making a credible threat to coerce you into an action, then you are not bound by agreements or contracts made, and you are entitled to use deceit. The bad faith is explicitly attributed to the person making the extortion.
What the law allows is entirely separate from whether an action is in good faith or bad faith. That the law allows it does not mean that you are not acting in bad faith. 'Legal' and 'moral' do not mean the same thing. You're conflating separate concepts again.



As a summary of my own viewpoint, I am encouraging that our actions be as moral as possible, with no regard to the morality of the opponent's actions. Their actions do not define the morality of our actions. At the same time, I am not asserting that we never do anything immoral. Killing someone in self defense is still killing, and thus immoral, but that doesn't mean it's not justified, nor is it based on the legality of the action. The real questions, though, are whether it's a necessary and reasonable action in pursuit of your goal (eg: surviving the encounter), as well as an overall evaluation of the worth and morality of the goal itself.

For example, suppose a gang tried to kidnap Homura, who can literally walk away from it before they even realize she's gone. Legally, she's perfectly within her rights to kill them (ie: she will not be accused of murder for killing her kidnappers). However, is that a reasonable, appropriate, or moral action for her to take? Should she do that? (It may not be possible to answer that without knowing more about the kidnappers themselves.)
 
We'll just conveniently ignore the times we forcibly took other people's territory.
Uhh... when did that ever happen? We have never done an attack action to increase territory. We have sometimes done diplomacy through intimidation, but that's it (aside from the one time with the kidnapping when we forced one group out and intimidated the other into joining)
 
In the interest of preventing this getting more heated than present. I'll just come out and say that while the logical series you constructed this theory on makes sense. It's not correct.
Not terribly surprised; that's the nature of speculation. Nice to know so that I can change my analysis, though.

Though also attempts to wield the bigger stick in this situation aren't likely to work well. Also surprises me how people are going for that style of diplomacy considering they've been playing the true good route so far.

This attack is actually a bit of a prelude to introduction of a Very Rational philosophy.
Indeed, certain types of motivations will not be dissuaded by violence. If they believe their actions are 'righteous', 'moral', or similarly necessary, violence against them is simply the act of the unenlightened, and has no persuasive power.

It shows that they were willing to go very, very far. Even untransformed MGs should be extremely tough to outright kill unless they break the gem (which should still be difficult considering they were untransformed as well IIRC)
Well, really what it shows is that dice can be extremely fickle. If helix rolled a 1 on "how well did they pull off the kidnapping", then clearly something disastrous happened, but it says absolutely nothing about "how far they were willing to go".

If a rock hits your windshield on the highway, causing you to swerve, and ending up in an 18-car pileup, that doesn't mean you were willing to cause the injury and death of dozens of people; it means the dice gods hate you.

What I'm getting at is we can't have it both ways. If nobody talks to anyone, there's no way for our supposedly bad reputation to spread, and no reason for our neighbors to be hostile to us.
Not quite. If everyone has the isolationist/tribalist position, there's plenty reason for them to be hostile. The degree of hostility will vary from group to group, of course, and active violence is unlikely most of the time. Our "bad reputation" can just as easily spread from speculation on their parts based on the tiny bits they see on their borders, and be just as inaccurate as any speculation based on limited info. The tribalism will lend a natural negative bias to such speculation.

We have sometimes done diplomacy through intimidation, but that's it
And you're saying that that's not forcibly taking over someone else's territory?
 
My feeling regarding any negotiations is that we'd be operating from a position of noted weakness, rather than of equals. I'd like to avoid that.
On the contrary, our opponents have shown a marked preference for using sneak attacks from concealment and running away before facing any notable opposition. This indicates that they are the ones who are intimidated. They won the opening salvo of the war and they now have two hostages (which increases their standing significantly), but we are still operating from a position of strength.
 
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