Time of the Gods: Into the Amber Age

[X] You must shine a light in the darkness.

I know it's a wagon but this is one of my favorite aspects of Gaerig, the moon beneath the sea.
 
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Annotated Updates: Turn 14 Part 1: A Quest of Amber and the Ages
Archive/Mechanics Post Link
(Not much to cover, but why not--plus i assume once the character sheet is updated we'll have more info on the Crone and Saitev)
Attributes
-Fear 4 (2) [-2 Demand Appeasement] (DA ends at the end of this turn)
-Avatar 5
-Influence 2
-Shrine 3
Traits (7/8)
-Inherent CA - Water
-Minor Aspect of Humanity
-Minor Spirit of the Sea
-Lesser Spirit of Mischief
-OA - Seas
-AA - Moon
-AA - Harvest Moon
-Capricious One
Skills (6/6)
-Astrology 10
-Navigation 4
-Perform(Trickery) 5
-Fishing 2
-Innovation 2
-Leadership 1
-Survival 1

Sacrificial Blessings
Trickery rolled 17, 24! 15, 16, 8 (94, 400, 85, 90, 28 -> 48. Total: 717. Avg: 717/5 + 5(skill) = 148. 5 Successes over DC 40, 2.2 return each...only that would be 11 DE, not 14. That means the crit either counts separate or counts for more. Either way, yay for the crit! that 14 DE goes a long way to putting us to cap--that plus rites is already 24 income, and vehemence is 6.8 atm, and participation bonus, if this works the same as the original, counts sub-turn votes, albeit at a lower rate,, so we should at least get up to 70 DE, and hopefully the cap if we were scary enough!)
Gained 14 DE
Fool's Journey Ends

Whip Waves x2
Influence rolled 9, 9 (Not sure if normal values count given the "9 9's" thing, but these both get modified to 40, so barely minor successes)

Drive Fish Away
Fishing/Influence rolled 9 (Same here, minor success on DC 40)

Flee the Chains!
??? rolled 9, 9, 9 (Welp--it is interesting that we don't know the skill for this...not just survival, so this is not just the physical fleeing. Its not astrology, so its not deciding when. Might be magic or mysticism, for metaphorically fleeing the chains, figuring out our role in the ritual and avoiding it? )
... no...
??? rolled 9
really?

Read Future
Astrology rolled 9 (9 -> 10 : 55 -> 75, not quite a major success, just a moderate success)

Meet with Saiga
Trade rolled 9 (9 -> 8 : 28, 1 flat success...again, if they even matter at this point)

No. What on earth is this sorcery? No. No no no no no. Fuck you dice. Just... really?

Just... Just something happens. I don't know anymore.
(*hug*)

You are tense, worried, afraid. You do what you can for your people, but you tightly regulate the energy you give out this year, stopping only to see the future and know whether Attrouska will arrive sooner or later. You lose track as you follow the stars to a point of convergence, when... the man who disappeared some years ago returns? (Hello critical failure guy, how did you like our exploding crit?)

With his canoe weighed down by riches and pleasing scents, he grounds upon the beach, dozens in stupefied awe as he spins a tale of accomplishments you would otherwise have believed impossible. He speaks of seductions of the children of gods themselves, of exhilarating chases and debauched romances. He weaves a tapestry of words describing how he joined in grand campaigns and led daring charges...

And in the quiet of your shrine, in privacy, you raise an eyebrow as he offers incenses, breaks figurines of heathen spirits over your alters, and gifts strange plants for sacrifice. He smirks lightly back, and you know it was all the cleverest lie ever told. (I mean...the seductions and chances and romances and campaigns might be lies, but he clearly came back with riches and the like...) An excellent lie that grants him his pick of wives, a seat in the higher councils. Perhaps most importantly, he gains your attention as your favorite not-Seski human, and really Seski doesn't count because she's half you and you're not human at all, it's an unfair contest. (Special follower! ...With no name yet! )

You are, lamentably, unable to take advantage of the situation, as a chill runs up your spine and it is time for you to go. (Hmm--more weight to the ??? rolls being magic or mysticism, we sensed we needed to go) One last time, you meet with Saiga, asking for a parting gift; a final saga, and to arrange for Saitev to meet with you. (I like the juxtaposition of "final saga" and "also introduce me when i get back" :p)He tells of his final victory over Saitev (I'd forgotten they had fought at first), and of the Crone's birth (She is apparently a fairly young usurper...), in his mind the cementing of a good future, but in yours the first clear evidence of his demise. You cannot tell him, blinded by hope as he is. (Alas, his blind spots stop him from hating the crone just as they stop him from hating us...the irony)

And so you leave, driving mad the tides and waves, scaring off the fish and bottom-crawlers, reveling for the final time in an act you will not perform for many, many months, cut off as you will be from all that makes you you.

You swim, in the end, the call of the sea too alluring to dirty your feet on land. You look up, and the convergence you had seen is near, nearer than you'd thought. You scan your location among the stars, and see that you are above the pit at the edge of the sunken village. (Just travelled 40 miles without noticing...Avatar 5 stronk.) You will find something interesting down below. So you dive, swimming down and down and down, and the light pressure of the deep places surrounds you when you see the bottom, coming down at the precipice of the pit.

From up close, the pit is not that wide, though it's depth is still a question you cannot answer. It is as though the earth itself bent and twisted to try to swallow something having incredible weight and force, but ultimately failed. Sense of curiosity and adventure weighing heavily, you kick off from the edge, and swim down. (You know, in retrospect we really should have known that "meteor impact that killed a civ and reshaped a land" would be a confluence...)

Down.

Down...

down...
(Into a burning ring of fire? :V )
down...

down...

down...

down...

It is dark...
[] You must go up! (Abandon the quest? I suppose it might actually be a thing for moon/stars/sun affinity, but given the next one i doubt it)
[] You must shine a light in the dark! (Likely to be moon or stars related stuff)
[] You must hide! (Hmm...hiding in the darkness...mischief or water affinities maybe?)
[] You must search! (Exploration, maybe mischief, maybe finding an artifact? So many possibilities....)
YOU. MUST. QUEST!

So, I really took to AN's idea. I think that an epic and crazy quest, though not entirely about being trapped beyond the physical plane, is the way to go here. At the end, or even during, I can assign bonuses and rewards with a little less restraint than I normally would, and give you guys a well-deserved bonus-quest to go with it. (=D)

I will be completely honest and say that I'm not 100% sure this will end with you several turns in the future or the next immediate turn. Accidentally falling into the past is not an impossibility. (Hmm...future or past both sound really interesting--of course, past would be better for us mechanically because free improvement time relative to our peers, but we'd also lose our crit fixing the Sivermen, and the high rolls getting us the creche and shrine tier so easily (and maybe even painted stars depending on how long...though as you are about to say, let's go with the flow and enjoy the ride :)) Just try to go with the flow, enjoy the narrative, and pick what sounds right, with the criteria you prefer. No need to powergame or strategize here, you'll get roughly the same level of reward when all is said and done. (SVers, not overthink symbolic options? inconcievable! :p)
Character Sheet

Gaerig (Literally: Endless Water)
Devotional Energy: 72
Population Modifier: 3
Ambrosia: 0/3
Legend: 39:107

Ruined Garment - approx. 10 Units unknown material (Hard Metal)
Condensed Energy - 3 Units unknown material (Stone)
Silver - approx. 5 Units (Soft Metal)
Obsidian - approx. 1 Unit (Stone)

(2) Obsidian Figurines (1 Moderate, 1 Good)
(6) Bone Figurines (2 Very Poor, 1 Okay, 2 Moderate, 1 Good)
Accumulated Attribute Discounts: 2/1 Faith (Focus Lockout), 2/5 Fear

Faith: 0
The locals are subjugated to you and pray to you, but you gain no special power from their mutterings as they pray for safety upon the water.

Fear: (4) 2
You have grown terrible enough to demand regular appeasement. This naturally makes people feel more secure under you, however.
The Painted Stars (Grand Tier 1 Extension) - Grants +1 Strong Modifier on all Astrology rolls. Improves at 4, 7, and 10 Shrine Tier.
Creche (Limited Tier 2 Extension) - May attach one Ur-Spawn youth. Grants the Ur-Spawn the ability to spend 1 additional legend per year on skills at Shrine Tier 1, 4, 7, and 10. Grants an additional +1 Strong Modifier on rolls tied to the Ur-Spawn's survival at Shrine Tier 2, 4, 6, 8, and 10. Ur-Spawn are removed from the Creche when they posses at least 20 skill points or at least 3 skills ranked 5 or higher.))

Avatar: 5
You have acquired an avatar, a simulacrum of a young woman who died in your waters, pale and blue-lipped. Your avatar is perpetually dripping wet, and when it speaks, water comes with it's words. It is garbed in tattered furs, draped and bound with seaweed. It's irises and pupils have been replaced by images of the moon, hypnotically changing in phase.

Influence: 2
Your influence extends roughly a half-mile in all directions from your Holy Place and Shrines, an area of the strait just off the island where fish abound, and currents are fickle. Your influence overlaps with the coast and a local village.

Shrine: 3
You possess a Holy Place and a pair of shrines, displaying tokens and pictograms of your past.
Maximum Shrines: (2/2, equal to Influence)
Teeth of the Sea [Confluence Effect: Moonbeam - Gain Minor Legend from all Major+ Successes in Astrology]
Saiga's Fishing Village (T 1/3)
Apostate Fishing VIllage (T 3/3) - The Painted Stars (Grand) - Creche (Limited)
Inherent Traits - Regular Traits

Minor Aspect of Humanity (+1 Leadership, +1 Innovation, 2 accumulating Legend discount to next Faith Attribute purchase)

Lesser Spirit of Mischief (+3 Perform (Trickery), +1 Survival, Limited ability to mask or disguise Avatar, grants a small chance of escaping disadvantaged encounters)
Minor Spirit of the Sea (+2 Fishing, +1 Navigation)

Astral Affinity - Moon, Harvest Moon
Ocean Affinity - Sea
Classical Affinity - Water

Capricious One (You are a being of arbitrary cruelty, as well as sudden magnanimity, whose actions are as inscrutable as the path of an arrow in the wind. All failures to enact constructive efforts or destructive efforts produce slightly more Fear Value, 2 legend discount to next Fear Attribute purchase)
Astrology 10
Navigation (3) 4
Perform (Trickery) (3) 6
Fishing (0) 2
Leadership (0) 1
Innovation (1) 2
Survival (0) 1
Ur-Children
Born Turn 9
Minor Spirit of Mischief (+2 Perform (Trickery), Limited ability to mask or disguise Avatar)
Classical Affinity - Water

Perform (Trickery) (1) 3
Perform (Primitive Instrument) 1
Craft (Stoneworking) 1
Trade 1

Legend Threshold Hit! (Granted you 5 Legend on turn 9)
Unspent : Current // Threshold : Ascension Requirement
4:7 // 3:44
Bloodlines
Transmuted Turn 11
Metal Affinity - Silver

SPECIAL FEATURES:
Poach Material - Silver (Flaying the corpses of these people produces small amounts of silver, though the act is despicable).
Quicksilver - Increases maximum Perform (Trickery) by 1, Increases maximum Melee by 1.

Perform (Trickery) +1
Melee +1

Dissemination: 8%
Fertility bonuses: -1
Social bonuses: 1
Survival bonuses: 1
Monsters
Spawned Turn 9
Minor Spirit of Mischief (+2 Perform (Trickery), Limited ability to mask or disguise Avatar)
Metal Affinity - Silver

SPECIAL FEATURES:
Lesser Shapeshifter - Can transform into another object of similar size to it's natural size (approx. 4 inches). Preference: Human.

Perform (Trickery) (1) 3
Fishing 1

Dissemination: 12%
Fertility bonuses: 0
Predator bonuses: 2
Survival bonuses: 2
Members of the Geshtaf (Gaerig's Pantheon) 2/2 Pantheon Enhancements
Born Turn -119
Known Attributes-
Faith 4
Avatar 6
Influence 3
Shrine 4

Traits-
Minor Aspect of the Walrus (+1 Fishing, +1 Survival, Increased maximum sustenance): 3 Legend
Aspect of the Polar Bear (+3 Melee, +2 Survival, +2 Fishing, Can communicate with and command Bears, Reduce Wound Threshold of enemies by one degree)
Aspect of Humanity (+2 Leadership, +3 Innovation, +3 Trade, 2 accumulating Legend discount to next Faith Attribute purchase)

Lesser Spirit of the Sea (+3 Fishing, +2 Navigation, +1 Trade)
Lesser Spirit of Exploration (+3 Survival, +1 Navigation, +1 Trade, Expanded exploration range)
Spirit of the Hunter (+2 Survival, +2 Melee, +3 Ranged, Gain a Strong bonus against spirits with inherent T2 or T3 animal aspects, Gain an automatic success against spirits with inherent T2 or T3 animal aspects)

Wanderlust (Drawn forever to new and strange places, you must discover, you must see! Navigation and Survival merged into Discovery (Survival/Navigation provide 0.5 Discovery per point), enables enhanced exploration actions)

Skills-
Awe - 6
Innovation - 4
Fishing - 8
Melee - 7
Discovery - 7
Trade - 5
Craft (Carving) - 7
Craft (Woodworking) - 5

Titles: The Hunter, The Wanderer, The Fool Usurped
Pantheon Enhancement: Adventurous Hero (Grants a Strong bonus when exploring, battling known outsider spirits, or when encountering new spirits peacefully)
Born ???
Known Attributes-
Focus ?
Avatar 6
Influence 4
Shrine ?

Known Traits-
Aspect of the Raven (+1 Survival, +3 Perform (Sing), +3 Omen Reading, Avatar gains Flight, Can communicate with and command some Birds)

Giant Avatar (Increases size by an additional foot per Avatar level, Increases total wounds by 50%, Increases wound threshold, Increases sustenance demand per turn by 2)

Omenseer (Omen Reading no longer counts towards skill capacity (only if Mysticism is also learned), enables enhanced Avatar Omen Reading actions)

Known Skills-
Survival
Perform (Sing)
Omen Reading
Trade
Melee
Astrology
Mysticism

---
Born ???
Known Attributes-
Focus ?
Avatar ?
Influence 5
Shrine ?

Known Traits-
Lesser Aspect of Humanity (+2 Leadership, +1 Innovation, +2 Trade, 2 accumulating Legend discount to next Faith Attribute purchase)

Spirit of Law (+3 Leadership, +3 ???, +2 Art (Painting), Can impose 2 additional Decrees)
Minor Spirit of Motherhood (+1 Leadership, reduces Sustenance cost to add random and specific traits by 1 and 1)

Mystic (Astrology and Omen Reading merged into Mysticism (Astrology/Omen Reading provide 0.5 Mysticism per point), enables enhanced Mystical actions)

Known Skills-
???
Leadership
Art (Painting)
Perform (Dance)
Mysticism

Known Additional Titles: The Keeper of Secrets
Pantheon Enhancement: High Elder (Enhanced effectiveness of Mystical actions, can impose 2 additional decrees, gains 1 legend per turn)
(No real changes here: Just the skill up for Trickery, and a fix to Spirit of the Hunter (now only applies to inherently animalistic spirits)
 
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Convergence, not Confluence. Close though. When the next batch of retard dice come up, I'm just gonna fiat it as some mystical-ass convergence.
Did the 9s have a mechanical effect?
Basically no? Technically yes? I mean, you aren't gonna see shit for at least five updates. Who knows, you might get dropped into turn 7 or something and overwrite yourself being formless, accidentally faceplanting into over 100 DE that you got twice by some cheesy cosmic accident.
Saiga too pure, too trusting
Alas, the poor retarded shonen hero was too pure for this world of light-hearted grimderp. And it's not so much blindspots as her being tried and tested; when she cries "Wolf, tomorrow at 3:30!", there's a wolf, the next day, at 3:30. He's never been given a reason (or the ability) to find out that he shouldn't trust her.
 
Oh my stars, the craziness just keeps coming! I do hope the clever liar comes back, the glimpse of him we got was just so fun~! (Perhaps he can be the father of our next Ur-Child?)

[X] You must search!
Oh what wonders we can find~!
 
The final chance of occurrence was 0.0000000134%. Roughly 1 chance in 750 billion. Spontaneous ascension isn't off the table, even for me, and I'm usually pretty good at tempering my urge to escalate a hilarious success.
SO. My professional pride as a Mathematician says that I have to object to this characterization.

This turn, we rolled 2d10 thirteen times, and had it come up 9 exactly nine of those times. Is that odd? Absolutely. However, it is definitely not as odd as you think.

Overall, the odds that 1d10 comes up as a 9 is exactly 8%. The odds that the last nine rolls came up as 9s is about 1.34 * 10-10​, which is two orders of magnitudes off of the number you quotes at about one in 7.5 billion, not one in 750 billion. Not sure where the difference comes in - I'm guessing it's just a misplaced decimal, but if you were counting something else that I'm missing let me know.

That's not quite all that happened, though. The impressive thing isn't just that the last nine rolls are 9s, but also that the first rolls aren't; that adds another .925​ multiplier to things, bringing us down to 8.85 * 10-11​, cutting the previous estimate down by about half. These odds look pretty outlandish, yes - but they aren't going to stay that way for long if we widen our assumptions somewhat.

Now, if you had rolled nine 9s but they weren't in the last nine roll slots, would you still be surprised, amazed, and flabbergasted? I'm guessing you would, if perhaps not to the same extent. And the odds of rolling nine 9s out of fourteen is actually exactly 2002 (14 Choose 9), so if we multiply our previous odds by that we are up to 1.77-7​, or only one in six million or so. Still impressive, but much more reasonable.

Now, this particular impressive event (rolling nine 9s out of fourteen rolls) was roughly one in six million, but I'm sure that there are lots of other equally impressive things that could have happened. One of the d20s could have rolled a 80-something after explosions (the odds of that are one in a hundred million on a single die, which comes out to roughly the odds we need when we multiply by fourteen because we had fourteen rolls). We could have rolled ten doubles, odds of which are also comparable to what we've got now. We could have done any number of other interesting things. Point being, if the even in question is "a highly improbable pattern occurs" instead of the much-more-specific "this particular highly improbable pattern occurs", you end up seeing much reduced odds. You need to take off at least one order of magnitude for this, possibly more. So lets do that; taking off between 6x and 60x puts odds for this even at between one in a hundred thousand and one in a million.

So. This was absolutely, fantastically unlikely. I would not at all be surprised if this was the most unlikely thing that ever happened in this forum, actually. Just, the odds are closer to one in a million and not one in a trillion.

EDIT: Corrected typo in exponent; -9 changed to -10.
 
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I've been thinking. If we ascend we are probably going to try to drag Saiga along with us.

What ascensions would he take?

Right now he already has the trait to become a Local God of Beasts via Polar Bear, Civilization via Hunter and Exploration.
 
SO. My professional pride as a Mathematician says that I have to object to this characterization.

This turn, we rolled 2d10 thirteen times, and had it come up 9 exactly nine of those times. Is that odd? Absolutely. However, it is definitely not as odd as you think.

Overall, the odds that 1d10 comes up as a 9 is exactly 8%. The odds that the last nine rolls came up as 9s is about 1.34 * 10-9​, which is two orders of magnitudes off of the number you quotes at about one in 7.5 billion, not one in 750 billion. Not sure where the difference comes in - I'm guessing it's just a misplaced decimal, but if you were counting something else that I'm missing let me know.

That's not quite all that happened, though. The impressive thing isn't just that the last nine rolls are 9s, but also that the first rolls aren't; that adds another .925​ multiplier to things, bringing us down to 8.85 * 10-11​, cutting the previous estimate down by about half. These odds look pretty outlandish, yes - but they aren't going to stay that way for long if we widen our assumptions somewhat.

Now, if you had rolled nine 9s but they weren't in the last nine roll slots, would you still be surprised, amazed, and flabbergasted? I'm guessing you would, if perhaps not to the same extent. And the odds of rolling nine 9s out of fourteen is actually exactly 2002 (14 Choose 9), so if we multiply our previous odds by that we are up to 1.77-7​, or only one in six million or so. Still impressive, but much more reasonable.

Now, this particular impressive event (rolling nine 9s out of fourteen rolls) was roughly one in six million, but I'm sure that there are lots of other equally impressive things that could have happened. One of the d20s could have rolled a 80-something after explosions (the odds of that are one in a hundred million on a single die, which comes out to roughly the odds we need when we multiply by fourteen because we had fourteen rolls). We could have rolled ten doubles, odds of which are also comparable to what we've got now. We could have done any number of other interesting things. Point being, if the even in question is "a highly improbable pattern occurs" instead of the much-more-specific "this particular highly improbable pattern occurs", you end up seeing much reduced odds. You need to take off at least one order of magnitude for this, possibly more. So lets do that; taking off between 6x and 60x puts odds for this even at between one in a hundred thousand and one in a million.

So. This was absolutely, fantastically unlikely. I would not at all be surprised if this was the most unlikely thing that ever happened in this forum, actually. Just, the odds are closer to one in a million and not one in a trillion.

It's okay, nobody's forcing you to do math at gunpoint anymore. You can rest, my friend.
 
Wonder if hiding would help evade the crone, might set time further forward?

Explore could open up esoteric stuff

Shine almost feels like a challenge, to the crone, to the dark and the world itself that it cannot extinguish us.

Up seems like a rejection of the confluence and what it presents.

*turns into a butterfly*
*rambles on symbolically with antenna*
 
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