Read the key in frustration. You've been arguing that we should lynch Rosen because my plan is bad, because...
1: Nictis is lying about his role and we don't know that he'll even block Rosen.
2: We don't actually know that Rosen is a killer.
3: We would have to "Waste a lynch" on Nictis if he didn't follow through.
4: Not lynching scum on Day 2 is throwing away the game
5: Lynching anyone else is guaranteed to mislynch.
I've been getting frustrated because the reasoning you've given at that point had been consistently bad and dismissing everything as just assumptions, and splitting between casting doubt on me and calling me town-sided.
Are you ignoring that that was specifically referring to us lynching Rosen tomorrow, and was a follow up on trying to explain to you that one scum kill is better than two scum kills, and me trying to point out that we could lynch Rosen at any later point but roleblocking him tonight would save Town?
The SK can't kill the Gunsmith, because the Watcher still exists. The SK can't afford to keep the Gunsmith around, and killing me gives the Gunsmith two nights to find them.
There's a necessary order to things at this point, the Watcher has to die before the Gunsmith can die. And I'd be roleblocking one of the kills, meaning that they can't take the risk.
...
Alright, new plan.
Give me a list of questions, that way I can answer them all and you can't ignore that I've already explained these things.
1. That's still true. I just don't believe your claim. I don't think it makes sense.
2. That's still true. We don't know if there is only a single kill capable scum or not.
3. This is also true. Your reassurance is that we could lynch you if there is another night kill. But that means that if your plan fails for any reason other than you being scum, we'll have wasted a day killing you. so this plan could backfire on all of us even if you aren't malicious.
4. This is a misrepresentation. I said agreeing to this plan could cost us the game. Remember, there were only 13 players. Now we're down to ten, presumably 7 town and 3 scum. If we mislynch and you don't follow through on your plan, (whether because you mean to betray us or because you missed a scum ruleblocker or jailer or you are wrong about the set up) then we are at seven, 4 town and 3 scum. At that point, one town player voting another (a real possibility with new players) leaves us open to a scum backed hammer.
5. This is a misrepresentation. I said we're likely to mislynch. And I still think we are. Right now the top lynch picks are some low content new players a Cyri, with strong disagreement about whether any of them have seemed scummy or not.
If lynching Rosen today is so obviously antitown and destined to kill town power roles, why were you so willing to lynch Rosen tomorrow, when surely the same issues apply. why wouldn't the SK just have targeted me or you or Cyri and leave the town PRs alone until Night 3 when we'd have lynched Rosen. That is why it worried me. This went from a "hey, maybe this we be cool if we did this for a night" to "why do you want town PRs to be lynched!?!?!" when you encountered resistance.
And here is the problem with your notion that you won't be targeted because they have to kill the Gunsmith: Let's say you are right about everything and honest about your intentions, and your plan works. You suggest the SK absolutely must try to kill one of the Town PRs tonight. I don't think that's so. Let's say they do. They'd want to kill the watcher first. Of course, they likely have any investigative or protective roles that exist on them, but let's ignore that and presume it works. Then, assuming they survive, they'd kill Shadell the next night. So your plan, if it works like you expect, buys Shadell one night to do investigation.
But here's an alternate plan. The SK kills you. Let's again assume you're right and your roleblock works for the night and stops a kill. The next night there are two night kills. They kill Shadell and IH. Except this way, the the scum are back to two night kills. So this route nets them three kills over the two nights, and reduces the chances of getting blocked by protectives or spotted by watchers. (Since the mafia are taking half the risk).
So it just makes more sense for the SK to kill you. That's why I don't think you are being sincere. Both of these scenarios work out better for town if you are right about how the game works and don't screw us. But because the most likely way for this to play out gets you killed for the benefit of one fewer night kills and one extra day of gunsmithing just seems like an extremely bad deal, I find it very unlikely your offer is sincere.
I actually think Rosen as SK makes a lot of sense. It would explain the loss of interest in the game upon being cornered. If you have no team mates who can argue on your behalf or who you can coordinate with, there is little reason to stay invested. Whereas someone with teammates is more likely to stick around to help set them up. If that is the case, there is a significant chance he might be a Strongman. At which point your plan lets the scum kill both PRs when a lynch would save one of them.
Sure, that's just a guess, but it is a guess where there is no reliance on a third party player, and if I am wrong, we've still lynched scum.
