74%-1 per point of combat or piety above 10, -10-20 if in city with other modifiers for job and Omakes
Henry. He's got Piety 14 and Combat 28, which means he gets a +22 chance of survival. That only takes his chances of survival up to 48%, so he's most likely gonna die.
Tranth. Piety 23 and Combat 36. +39 chance of survival, he has a 35% chance of dying, that's about one in three.
Britton has it worse. Piety 21, Combat 27. +28 chance of survival. 54% chance of survival, a bit better than a coin flip.
Drago. Piety 14, Combat 33. +27 chance of survival. 53% chance of survival, this ancient general that's been with us since the beginning has slightly worse odds than Britton and Syr isn't ready to take his place yet.
Saren. Piety 19, Combat 26. +25 chance of survival. 51% chance of survival, just a bit better than a coin flip. Hopefully the island turtle kills the enemies near him.
Caroline would be pretty much fucked if it weren't for her proximity to Rotbart. Piety 17 and Combat 18. That's a measly +15 chance of survival for a grand total of 41% chance of living.
So, odds of death:
Rotbart: 29% + Black Crystal Items + Omakes + City + Governor + Bodyguards + Odysseus
Caroline Vergil: 59% + City + Omakes + Personal Assistant
Drago: 47% + Omakes + General
Henry: 52% + Omakes + Admin
Jane: 37% + Omakes + Arbitrator
Saint Lin: 4% + Omakes + Priest
Fabricator Britton: 46% + City + Omakes
Tranth: 35% + City + Omakes
Saren: 49% + Omakes
Ridcully: 27% + Psykers Stuff + City
Xavier: 26% + Psyker Stuff
(Net: ~4 Character deaths from above.)
Regular Avernite: ??? (Looks like, um, 50%.)
Safe:
Syr
Amos Parnell
Fred Haword
Merdith Marue
I'm hoping that the survivors get a good bonus out of this. Maybe our Elite Psykers will go up to Heroic. Maybe we might get something like an 'Heroic-Level Squad'.
Adding the City bonus of -10% to the base. Also adding the other named characters for a more complete list.
Rotbart: 19% + Black Crystal Items + Omakes + Governor + Bodyguards + Odysseus
Caroline Vergil: 49% + Omakes + Personal Assistant
Drago: 37% + Omakes + General
Henry: 42% + Admin + Survivor Trait
Jane: 27% + Omakes + Arbitrator + Expert Psyker Hunter
Saint Lin: -6% + Omakes + Priest + Saint + Light of Victory + Immune to Corruption
Fabricator Britton: 36% + Omakes
Tranth: 25% + Omakes
Saren: 49% + Omakes
Ridcully: 17% + Psyker Stuff + Omakes + Witness to Secrets Divine + Spy on Matters Divine
Xavier: 26% + Psyker Stuff + Omakes + The Governor's Hound
First Councilor Aryz: 7% + Quartok + Omake + Even Death Fears Ancient Soldiers
Hye Richards (Helltroopers): 39% + Leads from the back + Survivor Trait
Lucina Eichel (Dis PDF): 46% + Omake + A Sixth Sense
Samanta Khol (Avernus Spine): 35% + Hard to Kill + Ice Queen (resistance to emotion based effects)
Paolo Donovan (Azure Isles): 46%
Rebecca Agani (Lindon): 43% + Leads from the Front
Marija Paulson (Everglades): 31% + Leads from the Front + Survivor Trait
Leopold Schwarz (Elysium): 33% + Old Soldiers Never Die + Nothing New Under The Sun
Callahan Christianson (Aridia): 39% + Leads from the Front
Psykers (do not have combat or piety stats):
Odysseus- Assigned to Governor's bodyguard
Aria- Leader of Witch Hunters
Zhukov- Leader of Battle Psykers
Marita Hobbs, Pyromancer (G)
Tamia Jameson, Pyromancer/Telapath (B)
Andromeda Rattray - Pyromancer (D)