The Long Night Part One: Embers in the Dusk: A Planetary Governor Quest (43k) Complete Sequel Up

[Andres]

Unlikely though. The Chaos Gods rarely leave their sanctums and prefer to use their daemons(or angyls in this case) to do their work for them, and the Void Dragon wasn't direct competition in the way the other Chaos Gods are, so it's somewhat doubtful.

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We can't just assume the Abomination is letting such a powerful enemy live inside its own territory because it's too lazy to get out of the basement. Not only that, but the Abomination is basically the culmination of the Imperium's super-zeal, including the "HATE THE XENO, KILL THE XENO" mentality. Regardless of whether it's competition or not, the Abomination will hate it just as much as anything else.

 

[Enjou]

We can't just assume the Abomination is letting such a powerful enemy live inside its own territory because it's too lazy to get out of the basement. Not only that, but the Abomination is basically the culmination of the Imperium's super-zeal, including the "HATE THE XENO, KILL THE XENO" mentality. Regardless of whether it's competition or not, the Abomination will hate it just as much as anything else.

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The Eye of Terra isn't the Abomination's territory anymore than The Eye of Terror belongs to Slaanesh. The daemons of the other four Chaos Gods invaded through it years before the Abomination was even born.

Also, again, the Void Dragon is not exactly direct competition to the Abomination, what with living in a different plane of existence, and the Abomination was probably rather busy with the other four Chaos Gods if the Void Dragon was even something he noticed. Even if the Abomination was winning, it doesn't mean it could split up its forces to a fifth front.

Further, the Void Dragon is a C'Tan. A lot of Warp shit just won't work on it, and even if the Abomination was able to go throw down with it the fight would not likely be an easy one, and the other four would very much take advantage of any injuries he got in the battle.

 

[HanEmpire]

Plus the C'Tan have anti-Warp capabilities. The Pylons of Cadia for instance are their work, or at least has basis in them.

 

[Valkur]

Speaking of Cadia do we know if they may still be holding the line against Abbadon? Or if Abbodon is even still alive after all of this?

 

[Enjou]

Speaking of Cadia do we know if they may still be holding the line against Abbadon? Or if Abbodon is even still alive after all of this?

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No, we don't. However, Abbadon is more than likely alive, what with being the greatest Champion of Chaos Undivided and as such is resurrected whenever he dies. The birth of the Abomination though may have caused him some issues, what with the angyls likely causing havoc in the Eye of Terror.

 

[HanEmpire]

I think there were Avernites fighting near the Cadian front when the Emperor died, and durin was rolling to see how they were doing. They could be alive somewhere.

 

[Shard]

...So Frederick & Freya's children have ~70% chance of being psykers?
That seems rather excessive.

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If 11.6 in 1000 people on Avernus became psykers as compared to 1 in 1000 in the imperium becoming psykers, yes.

The equation does assume that it's based on dosage, though.

Though, just in case, redoing the equation with '11.6 in 10^9' as compared to '1 in 10^9'...

Spoiler: Math

p = 1 - (1-10^-9)^n
p = 11.6 * 10^-9, solve for n.
(1-10^-9)^n = 1-11.6 * 10^-9
log both sides...
n lg(1-10^-9) = lg(1-11.6 * 10^-9)
n = lg(1-11.6 * 10^-9)/lg(1-10^-9)
= 11.60000006

p = 1-(9/10)^11.60000006
= 70.5%

Whelp.

 

[Valkur]

If 11.6 in 1000 people on Avernus became psykers as compared to 1 in 1000 in the imperium becoming psykers, yes.

The equation does assume that it's based on dosage, though.

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Okay I'm just going to say that in a magical world in the not too distant future the following happens. *BLAM*

We have space marines again and *BLAM* their badasses. What type of SM's are they?

1. They have a shit ton of Psykers because why not.
2. Their descendants of Avernites so they're almost immune to any deathworld.
3. They'll be named the Jungle Shamans. Because that's a badass name.
4. They're psykers can go toe to toe with most chaos sorcerors and even beat them at their own game. But not too OP because that's the Phase tigers stick.
5. Remember the Space Wolves massive puppies? Well these guys ride massive Psy worms to battle.

Coming up with some colors as we speak lol.

 

[Ramble]

psyker Phase tiger vs grey knight. Who wins?

 

[Elder Haman]

So I asked for help with the maths problem on another forum and got back an answer which seems to be right. It solves Elder Haman's conclusion of Avernus doing nothing (despite common sense and Word of God) while also not making it certain/super certain. This is the scenario I presented and this is the solution I received. Unfortunately, I don't know what log is or how it works so I can't fact-check it.

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The math is wrong because you gave them different numbers from Avernus.

Avernus increases the chance of psyker mutation by 0.000001% which is one in 100 million.

You gave them the numbers of 1 in 100 for the effect.

You just don't get it. The multiplier is irrelevant to your question.

Yes, people on Avernus are 11.6 times as likely to be psykers (or as I rounded it to, 10 times).

But that is just because the chance of being a psyker is so extremely low in the rest of the universe.

Avernus has no reasonably measurable effect on the likelihood of a specific individual becoming a psyker. Or to be more specific, the effect is to increase the chance of that specific individual becoming a psyker by 0.000001%.

That is common sense.

You are confusing an effect that is noticeable and large when applied to 3 billion people, and trying to extrapolate that there must be some large effect on individuals.

That's not true. Very small effects on individuals add up to noticeable changes in a large population.

 

[Elder Haman]

The equation does assume that it's based on dosage, though.

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Yes, this assumes that there is some interaction between tainted bloodline and Avernus effect that is synergistic (ie tainted bloodline is more strongly effected than other bloodlines).

If on the other hand the assumption is that they are independent effects (possible if bloodline is fixed genetics, while Avernus is mutation) then the effect is only additive, and thus has no measurable impact on any individual.

Furthermore the assumption here is that there is a logarithmic relationship, which is traditionally a good estimation, although we do need to know what base of log is being used here. Did you use log 10 or ln?

 

[Shard]

Yes, this assumes that there is some interaction between tainted bloodline and Avernus effect that is synergistic (ie tainted bloodline is more strongly effected than other bloodlines).

If on the other hand the assumption is that they are independent effects (possible if bloodline is fixed genetics, while Avernus is mutation) then the effect is only additive, and thus has measurable impact on any individual.

Furthermore the assumption here is that there is a logarithmic relationship, which is traditionally a good estimation, although we do need to know what base of log is being used here. Did you use log 10 or ln?

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Log 10, though as a mathematics student, I can tell you the base doesn't matter, so long as you use the same base for the entire equation.

I can actually write lg(1-11.6 * 10^-9)/lg(1-10^-9) as log(1-10^-9)​(1-11.6*10^-9), though finding a calculator with that log would be a challenge.

 

[ArchAIngel]

Why are we arguing about this? She already got tested, IIRC, and was a very low level psyker, Kappa level or so.

 

[Sightsear]

3. They'll be named the Jungle Shamans. Because that's a badass name.

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I will fight this on the grounds that the name "Forever Knights" is even more awesome! Especially since it sounds kinda like 'ever knight', which sounds like avernite!

You are clearly wrong.

The math is wrong because you gave them different numbers from Avernus.

Avernus increases the chance of psyker mutation by 0.000001% which is one in 100 million.

You gave them the numbers of 1 in 100 for the effect.

You just don't get it. The multiplier is irrelevant to your question.

Yes, people on Avernus are 11.6 times as likely to be psykers (or as I rounded it to, 10 times).

But that is just because the chance of being a psyker is so extremely low in the rest of the universe.

Avernus has no reasonably measurable effect on the likelihood of a specific individual becoming a psyker. Or to be more specific, the effect is to increase the chance of that specific individual becoming a psyker by 0.000001%.

That is common sense.

You are confusing an effect that is noticeable and large when applied to 3 billion people, and trying to extrapolate that there must be some large effect on individuals.

That's not true. Statistics don't work that way.

The fact that you won't accept this truth does not change the truth. And making up numbers that give different results does not prove anything.

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Liiiittle preachy there, Elder Haman. Besides, I don't see anything here that says that the formula itself is off, just that the scale is so much larger that it renders probabilities meaningless. Your entire tone comes of as 'speaking down to you because you clearly know less than me'.

Why are we arguing about this? She already got tested, IIRC, and was a very low level psyker, Kappa level or so.

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What? Citation Please.

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[HanEmpire]

That reminds me, we really need to find Warproot. I want our Psykers to be topped out.

 

[Shard]

As a note, I'm fairly sure it's not based on dosage, as otherwise the probability that people become a psyker would increase as they got older.

This is also true for mutants. Older mutants are should be more probable than younger mutants. Except for that people don't want to write about that for some reason, so younger mutants are more common...

 

[ArchAIngel]

I will fight this on the grounds that the name "Forever Knights" is even more awesome! Especially since it sounds kinda like 'ever knight', which sounds like avernite!


Liiiittle preachy there, Elder Haman. Besides, I don't see anything here that says that the formula itself is off, just that the scale is so much larger that it renders probabilities meaningless. Your entire tone comes of as 'speaking down to you because you clearly know less than me'.


What? Citation Please.

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Citation here: I mucked up the exact level, but this argument is still dumb.

yes you did, she has a little bit but not enough to be counted as a psyker around Lambda level

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[Andres]

@durin, if we want to fire volleys of flashbang/loudbang (purely noise) artillery rounds, do we need to do preparation during turns or will they be allowed as write-ins by default?

 

[Sightsear]

Citation here: I mucked up the exact level, but this argument is still dumb.

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Cool. Argument mostly settled with a forgotten word of god.

@durin, if we want to fire a volley of flashbang/loud bang (purely noise) artillery rounds, do we need to do preparation during turns or will it be allowed as a write-in?

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Your talking about setting up an assembly line for specialist shells right? Well, we'd need to run it by the Mechanicus, and give a good reason why we'd want them, but that shouldn't take an actual turn to get a yes/no.

Of course, I must now point out that 'non-lethal artillery shells' is a silly idea. At that scale, the things would probably still kill people purely from the shockwave. Even if they did survive, chances are that we won't have anyone close enough to capitalize on it properly, with prisoner taking and such.

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[Valkur]

Also why do we need prisoners? I mean I guess they'd be good for the PDF in case they need to put down a riot or to take out a rogue psyker that we may REALLY want. But yeah I don't see much more use beyond that.

 

[Andres]

Of course, I must now point out that 'non-lethal artillery shells' is a silly idea. At that scale, the things would probably still kill people purely from the shockwave. Even if they did survive, chances are that we won't have anyone close enough to capitalize on it properly, with prisoner taking and such.

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They're not meant to incapacitate them, just debuff them for when our troops attack. They'll still be seeing funny and have ringing, painful ears when suddenly our guys start shooting them. Moreover, only a single volley is required for them to work and accuracy isn't as required as explosive shells.

Also why do we need prisoners? I mean I guess they'd be good for the PDF in case they need to put down a riot or to take out a rogue psyker that we may REALLY want. But yeah I don't see much more use beyond that.

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They're not meant to knock people out, just take out their primary senses so our infantry and armour can more easily kill them off.

 

[Sightsear]

They're not meant to incapacitate them, just debuff them for when our troops attack. They'll still be seeing funny and have ringing, painful ears when suddenly our guys start shooting them. Moreover, only a single volley is required for them to work and accuracy isn't as required as explosive shells.


They're not meant to knock people out, just take out their primary senses so our infantry and armour can more easily kill them off.

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I would make the argument that killing them lots would have a similar effect! The question you really want to ask is, "can it make a bigger boom, even at the cost of lethality/structural damage"?

Alternatively, phosphorous shell analogous, for those soft targets that you just want to die in droves. Of course, they would still need to effect a bigger area per shot, and are not as conductive to a general advance of our troops.

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[Andres]

I would make the argument that killing them lots would have a similar effect!

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Compared to flashbang shells, HE shells have lower area of effect (otherwise why ever use flashbangs instead of frag grenades?), require multiple volleys to get a decent effect, and generally go up against cover specifically designed to counter them. And again, just a single volley of the shells would be effective, after which we can continue laying down volley after volley of HE. It's not an either/or choice.

 

[Valkur]

Don't explosive shells from artillery all ready ring peoples ears harshly? I feel I heard this before and I have to ask where their's the bigger advantage:

Explosive vs Non-Lethal shells. In a situation those NLS's could work but..ya not sure. Maybe make a few and give them to our PDF's and other Psyker hunters to help stop our losses? Aditionally if we ever go conquering human held planets to bring them into the fold then NLS's may be a solution when we don't want to kill too many people.

But Andres again won't it be better to kill your enemy instaneusly instead of causing them a headace before shooing them? Seems kinda roundabout no?

 

[Sightsear]

Compared to flashbang shells, HE shells have lower area of effect (otherwise why ever use flashbangs instead of frag grenades?)

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*Disclaimer, I have done no actual research to back the following up.

Because they aren't, not in military units (as far as I'm aware). Flashbangs are used when you want the people in the room your currently charging alive, and (very relatively) unharmed. More importantly, outside of an enclosed environment, they'll have a much shorter fall-off range than a Fragmentation or (presumably) HE grenade. The effect likely doesn't scale up as well either.

Videogame flashbangs tend to have a bigger AoE for a similar but inverted reason that video-game shotguns have such poor range. If they didn't, why would you use them?

IRL Shotguns are perfectly effective at the ranges that most videogames play at. But then, why would you use anything else?

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