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The Dawi in Arda (Hiatus)

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Skitzyfrenic said:
If we're going to send a spoiling attack, which is a good idea, it might be worth putting a bunch of dice into a Healers' Hall in order to finish it next turn. Just in case.
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So doing some math on my plan, as I have it now there's a 47.75% chance of completing the healers hall this turn. If I move over one of the stonemason dice it goes up to 78.73%. The chance of completing the barracks however would drop from 94.28% to 75.15%.

I'll be honest, when I started doing these calcs I hadn't expected odds that good on the barracks with just the two dice. I'm going to edit my plan to move 1 stonemason die to the healers hall.
 
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Jreengus said:
So doing some math on my plan, as I have it now there's a 47.75% chance of completing the healers hall this turn. If I move over one of the stonemason dice it goes up to 78.73%. The chance of completing the barracks however would drop from 94.28% to 75.15%.

I'll be honest, when I started doing these calcs I hadn't expected odds that good on the barracks with just the two dice. I'm going to edit my plan to move 1 stonemason die to the healers hall.
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What? The Healing hall is only 110, how is three dice only a 47.75% chance?
 
UlseDovThur said:
What? The Healing hall is only 110, how is three dice only a 47.75% chance?
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I'm fortifying and decorating it* which takes it up to 150, the highest brewer dice takes a -5. So 3d100 -5 with a goal of 150 is 47.75%

*It is not a room you want enemies breaking into unless you want a slaughter and I think it should be decorated for the benefit of any dwarves stuck in there.
 
Jreengus said:
I'm fortifying and decorating it* which takes it up to 150, the highest brewer dice takes a -5. So 3d100 -5 with a goal of 150 is 47.75%

*It is not a room you want enemies breaking into unless you want a slaughter and I think it should be decorated for the benefit of any dwarves stuck in there.
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Ah, hadn't spotted that. I don't think the fortifications are needed at the moment though. Let's be real, if at any point they are needed in anything resembling the near future we're boned regardless as that would mean the enemy is already in the valley, in the Hold, has taken the Entrance Hall, and has already made their way up our fortified stairs.

I do agree with the decorations though.

Could I convince you to spend that Mason die on the fortifications of the pass?

Edit: Also, why is Gatrim going with the Throng to the East? And why are we sending a throng to look for the skinchangers? We kind of have a brewing goblin situation to deal with.
 
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UlseDovThur said:
Ah, hadn't spotted that. I don't think the fortifications are needed at the moment though. Let's be real, if at any point they are needed in anything resembling the near future we're boned regardless as that would mean the enemy is already in the valley, in the Hold, has taken the Entrance Hall, and has already made their way up our fortified stairs.

I do agree with the decorations though.

Could I convince you to spend that Mason die on the fortifications of the pass?
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If @Skitzyfrenic is ok with me removing the fortification from the healers hall and sending the mason out to the pass I'll do it.

For odds it drops the healer hall chances to 68.92% (so about a 10% drop). It raises the wall odds from 58.27% to 83.02%
 
I'm perfectly okay with it.

My brain isn't fully engaged after an afternoon of snow removal, so other than some pithy advice here or there, I can't manage much thought.

So, you do whatever you feel is best.

(As an aside, will a healers' hall help with birth rate? Because miscarriage is less likely, as are other infant mortality type things, plus keeping the Kvinn alive more often during/after birth.)
 
UlseDovThur said:
Edit: Also, why is Gatrim going with the Throng to the East? And why are we sending a throng to look for the skinchangers? We kind of have a brewing goblin situation to deal with.
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I'm not 100% certain on the throng actions so I'm up to change those, I was hoping for clues on what happened to the skin changers since they they apparently moved. Do you think it would be best to keep the throngs close to be ready to reinforce the south if something happens?
 
Jreengus said:
I'm not 100% certain on the throng actions so I'm up to change those, I was hoping for clues on what happened to the skin changers since they they apparently moved. Do you think it would be best to keep the throngs close to be ready to reinforce the south if something happens?
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I would say that sending the Throngs Ranging to the East and North isn't a great idea right now. We've got the Grobi sniffing around and they could attack at anytime. I especially don't recommend having Gartrim go anywhere at the moment. He's the Lord and if an attack happens he needs to be there for morale reasons and even if he's not a great fighter he's still got an entire panoply of Gromril equipment.

I'm okay Ranging/Hunting to the west so as to protect the Farmers collecting Goats.
 
UlseDovThur said:
I would say that sending the Throngs Ranging to the East and North isn't a great idea right now. We've got the Grobi sniffing around and they could attack at anytime. I especially don't recommend having Gartrim go anywhere at the moment. He's the Lord and if an attack happens he needs to be there for morale reasons and even if he's not a great fighter he's still got an entire panoply of Gromril equipment.

I'm okay Ranging/Hunting to the west so as to protect the Farmers collecting Goats.
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Right, I've got the throngs standing guard and ready to reinforce if necessary now. I've put Gartrim to work on making a Gartrim junior to take over should he fall.
 
Skitzyfrenic said:
(As an aside, will a healers' hall help with birth rate? Because miscarriage is less likely, as are other infant mortality type things, plus keeping the Kvinn alive more often during/after birth.)
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Dawi populations are slow to grow, partly because they don't start making Garazi until they're already approaching or even after their 100th birthday and partially because Dawi have been steadily growing less fertile through history.
They are however very resilient even as Garazi and so it is very rare for either mother or child to die during pregnancy or in childbirth and infant mortality is rather low. Garazi only ever really die if a hold is breached or more tragically if a Kin-Strife flares up.
 
Warkeymon said:
Dawi populations are slow to grow, partly because they don't start making Garazi until they're already approaching or even after their 100th birthday and partially because Dawi have been steadily growing less fertile through history.
They are however very resilient even as Garazi and so it is very rare for either mother or child to die during pregnancy or in childbirth and infant mortality is rather low. Garazi only ever really die if a hold is breached or more tragically if a Kin-Strife flares up.
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Also doesn't help that there is only 1 Woman per every 3 Men unlike the 1 to 1 of Humans.

[X] Plan: Healing, Mining and a Wall.
 
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I'm a little surprised the plan doesn't bail on goats for a turn to pump the wall or sacrifice in other areas to try to throw up east and west walls, ditto for having the leaders not join in making walls.

That being said clan house, barracks, healers, and prep for mining are all definite priorities.

[x] Plan: Healing, Mining and a Wall.
 
[x] Plan: Healing, Mining and a Wall.

I like this, but personally I would take all the die from the stairs and put them on making the last wall.
I am a bit wary about starting to dig downward, and would prefer we excavate the four peaks before joining them at the middle, under the center of the valley.
 
Haikeu said:
[x] Plan: Healing, Mining and a Wall.

I like this, but personally I would take all the die from the stairs and put them on making the last wall.
I am a bit wary about starting to dig downward, and would prefer we excavate the four peaks before joining them at the middle, under the center of the valley.
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We need to dig down to start mines. We're also burning through our coal reserves.
 
[x] Plan: Healing, Mining and a Wall.
I do not want to ruin the atmosfere, but why digging entrances to the oters peak?
Wouldn't be better to have one entrance in the north peak and reach the others underground?
Whitout an exposed above ground entrance?
It would greatly improve our defensive abilities if we were to be sieged in the valley.
Sure we could add secret small passages, later for crisis.
 
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KarmaA said:
I'm a little surprised the plan doesn't bail on goats for a turn to pump the wall or sacrifice in other areas to try to throw up east and west walls, ditto for having the leaders not join in making walls.

That being said clan house, barracks, healers, and prep for mining are all definite priorities.

[x] Plan: Healing, Mining and a Wall.
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Ultimately what it comes down to is we need excavation dice to provide stone to build the walls with. I could have gone for 4 dice on each wall and 8 dice excavating but that has reasonable odds of not completing either wall. I'm also kinda hoping we wont see a proper army this turn and next turn if the healing hall is up we can launch a preemptive kull.

Franksson said:
[x] Plan: Healing, Mining and a Wall.
I do not want to ruin the atmosfere, but why digging entrances to the oters peak?
Wouldn't be better to have one entrance in the north peak and reach the others underground?
Whitout an exposed above ground entrance?
It would greatly improve our defensive abilities if we were to be sieged in the valley.
Sure we could add secret small passages, later for crisis.
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Right now we aren't building any extra entrances, if we have the ability to dig under the valley to other peaks without entrances we could skip on them for now. Long term though we probably want the extra entrances to keep the current one from getting too crowded. At the very least I'd want two entrances in the opposite mountains, so north and south.
 
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Having multiple entrances also forces besiegers to watch their back. They can't devote all their forces to an assault or we can sally into the back of them while they're busy.
 
@Mathrafal unless we somehow end up with ent and elgi besieging us we will always be outnumbered.
And yes they will have to defend from two sides, but we will also have to guard twice the ammount of walls because if they break in one of the entrances we have a big problem.
Making a series of secret entrances would also allow us to attack an enemy in the valley (plus they will not expect something like that unlike with a big entrance), heck with time we should have secret tunnels that lead outside the walls in the passes so that if the walls were to be besiegied by artillery a force could sneak behind.
@Jreengus sure the farmers will always exit the gate evriday, but many dawi could very easly live without ever seeing the sky, the miners will probably only exit to serve in the military, same for the smiths, the stonemason will only exit for project outside the hold, but after we make triple big walls around the for passes there isn't really anything big they have to do outside.
So the only two numerous group of people who will use the entrance after we finish settling ourself in would be the army and the farmer, considering how big the entrance his I would say that we are fitting all of them easly.
we really do not have anybody close enough to trade, and even if we had (Rivendell and the bear people at best) it shouldn't be a big caravan.
Even if we wanted to make another big gate in the southern mountain I suggest we make a tunnel that connects the two peaks first, since we would have to split our forces leaving an escape route should one of the two entrances fall is a must.
 
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