Suffer Not ≡][≡ 40k Inquisition Quest

open_sketch · Nov 19, 2019

≡][≡ Inquisitor Joanyn Praxis ≡][≡
Imperial Inquisitor, Ordo Hereticus

Attributes
Physical Attributes
Strength - 1
Agility - 2
Melee - 1
Endurance: 4

Mental Attributes
Intelligence - 3
Tactics - 2
Nerve - 1
Fortitude: 6

Social Attributes
Charm - 4
Presence - 3
Contacts - 3
Resolve: 10

Faith Attributes
Belief - 2
Scripture - 0
Fire - 1
Conviction: 3

(3) - The Imperium should be an alliance of solidarity for the weak, not an alliance of strength for the strong.
(2) - People are more than problems, weaknesses, corruption vectors to eradicate. Their feelings and dreams matter.
(1) - A Shot Fired is a Shot Wasted

<1> - Victory makes me feel alive.

Strength is raw physical conditioning. Lifting stuff, swimming, running a long time, punching hard. It's added to many melee attack damage as well.

Agility is swiftness, reaction speed, and immediate awareness. It's used for dodging things, jumping, ducking, outrunning folks, and other twitchy reactions.

Melee is the general skill of up close combat with knives, swords, fists (power or otherwise), chainsaws, whatever else.

Intelligence is raw intellectual power, knowledge, and drive to learn and study stuff. It is also used for military logistics.

Tactics is your knowledge of battle tactics, from the strategy of leading armies to simply knowing when it is safe to rush across a hallway in a gunfight.

Nerve is the stat both for shooting firearms and for keeping your cool. Nerve checks are common in combat to prevent from panicking or fight through pain.

Charm is the social stat used for flattery, smoothtalking, lying, seduction, verbal sparring, deflection, and navigating high culture.

Presence is the social stat used for reasoning, explaining, teaching, intimidating, impressing, or public address.

Contacts is rolled to know people you need to know, and to have a good reputation with them.

Belief is your actual faith in... whatever you have faith in. The Emperor, hopefully. It is used to resist temptation and corruption.

Scripture is your knowledge of the intellectual side of your religious faith. If you can quote from the holy books and theologians. It's intelligence for matters of faith.

Fire is your ability to project your faith out and convince others of it. Want to convert somebody or whip a crowd into a fanatical fury? This stat.

Weapon: Laspistol
Weapon: Hellpistol
Trade: Manager
Trade: Spy
Trade: Political Operator
Talent: Verbal Sparring
Talent: Seduction
Talent: Dishonesty
Talent: Intimidation
Talent: Exfiltration
Talent: Logistics
Talent: Propaganda
Talent: Indirect Persuasion
People: Dahlia
People: The Corrupted
People: High Imperial Politicians
Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory

Social Loadout
1 Compact Laspistol, 1 Laspistol Reload, Flash-Safe Glasses, 6 Concealed monoknives, 1 Show Knife, 1 Belt Buckle Gun, 1 Plastex Bodyglove/Flakweave Suit, Displacer Field

Combat Options
+1 Hellpistol, +1 Transonic Machete

Compact Laspistol
Small Handgun
Attack Dice: 1/d10 -or- 2/d10-1
Aim Bonus: +1
Damage Bonus: +2
Armour Reduction: 0
Magazine Size: 4
Special
Laser: Does not cause bleeding.
Blinding: If operated without flash protection, witnessing the impact of a las-weapon will blind for 3 rounds.

Concealed Monoknife
Small Knife
Attack Dice : 1/d10
Damage Bonus : Agility + 1
Armour Penetration : 2
Parry Bonus : -1
Disarm Bonus : +0

Show Knife
Medium Knife
Attack Dice : 1/d10+1
Damage Bonus : Agility + 1
Armour Penetration : 0
Parry Bonus : +0
Disarm Bonus : +0

Buckle Gun
Tiny Handgun
Attack Dice: 2/d10-2
Aim Bonus: +0
Damage Bonus: -2
Armour Reduction: 0
Magazine Size: 1
Special
Hidden: Will always escape searches.

Plastex Bodyglove/Flakweave Suit
Clothing
Armour Value : 3
Coverage : All but Head and Eyes
Resistances : Impact, Blunt

Displacer Field
Energy Screen
When hit with an attack, roll 1d10.
1: Displaced into worse danger.
2: Displacer field fails. Take the hit.
3-6: Displaced hard. Take 1 Sore from bumping into something.
7-9: Displaced. Attack avoided.
10: Nothing personal, kid.

Hellpistol (Voss Pattern)
Medium Handgun/Carbine
Attack Dice: 1/d10 -or- 2/d10-1 (One-Handed)
Aim Bonus: +1
Damage Bonus: +3
Armour Reduction: 2
Magazine Size: 12
Special
Laser: Does not cause bleeding.
Blinding: If operated without flash protection, witnessing the impact of a las-weapon will blind for 3 rounds.
Convertible: When converted to Carbine mode, gain +1 to Attack and Aim Bonus.

Transonic Machete
Medium Knife
Attack Dice : 1/d10+2
Damage Bonus : Strength + 3
Armour Penetration : 1 + Half of enemy Armour (Round Down)
Parry Bonus : +0
Disarm Bonus : +3
Special
Sickening Vibrations: Enemies with 3 meters of an active blade count as being at -1 to all stats.

Sister Charitina
A member of the Order Famulous who found her faith again thanks to the Inquisitor. Praxis' closest confidant, dearest friend, and irritating ex-girlfriend.
Attributes of Note: Nerve 3, Contacts 4, Charm 3, Scripture 2, Fire 2
Skills of Note: Career - Order Famulous, Weapon - Bolt Carbine, People - Inquisitor Praxis
Equipment: Half-Plate Power Armour, Bolt Carbine, Burning Blade
Known Values: (3) The nobility is a blight on the Imperium, (2) I trust the Inquisitor's vision for the future, (1) Galaxy grim and dark, tiddy soft and warm.

Dahlia Hussian
A 17 year old unsanctioned psyker, rescued by Praxis from the witch's pyre she volunteered for at age 12. Loves the Emperor, and hates herself for being unworthy and twisted.
Attributes of Note: Power 1, Control 2, Sight 2, Faith 5, Strength -1, Nerve 0
Skills of Note: Talent - Self Discipline, Talent - Self-Hatred
Equipment: Web Derringer
Known Values: [3] I am here because I was given a chance. I should extend the same chance to others, [2] The Emperor is all things, [1] I can atone for my existence by aiding the Inquisitor

Marvel Ann Alemanga-Zero
A Magos of the biology wing of the Adeptus Mechanicus, Marvel Ann is an exuberant, odd, and enthusiastic cyborg lady who is an expert in medicine and bionics. She's Joanyn's current sweetheart, and she autotunes her voice.
Attributes of Note: Intelligence 4, Charm 3, Strength 4
Skills of Note: Career - Cyberdoc, Talent - Surgery, Talent - Singing
Known Values: [2] Adventure is to be seized with both hands (and as many mechandrites as possible)

Fraser Bookter
A positively ancient scribe who served Praxis' teacher, Bookter has seen all manner of things. Despite that, he keeps good humour.
Attributes of Note: Intelligence 4, Scripture 2, Contacts 2, Strength -2
Skills of Note: Career - Archivist, Knowledge - Imperial History
Known Values: ???

Korey Kilimnik
Once a Lightning fighter pilot for the Navy, until he was caught fucking an admiral's son. Kilimnik professionally doesn't care unless it has jet engines.
Attributes of Note: Nerve 5, Agility 3
Skills of Note: Career - Fighter Pilot, Talent - Piloting, Talent - Causing Trouble
Known Values: [2] By death or rejuvenation, age will never slow my reflexes

Penalties

≡][≡	Sore	Strain	Stress	Stain	≡][≡
◹☠◸	0/4	0/6	0/10	0/3	◹☠◸
◹⛉◸	3 XP	XP3	33 XP	9 XP	◹⛉◸

CURRENT RP
6

RULES SUMMARY
ROLZ ROOM

10ebbor10 · Sep 29, 2020

Anyway, more ideas @open_sketch :

Draft up additional benefits of the gathering policy :

1) Concentrating the force will put all of the Imperium's enemies off balance, as they prepare for what seems to be a big fuck-off crusade going somewhere
2) Big PR opportunity for the Imperium of man

Additional Eldar trust :

1) Can Araleth summon a high ranking eldar to watch the proceedings with us. Officially a coordinating liason, implicitedly a hostage

Additional Bureaucracy :

1) Go talk to out space marine friends to see if they have been seeing unusual deployements. Because they only get called in for serious stuff, a pattern there should be more obvious than in the chaff of regular imperial uprisings

open_sketch · Sep 29, 2020

The first two aren't enough to add to anything. The Eldar thing is gonna be an Impossible and have huge complications, the second will be Impossible as well (tracking space marines is HARD)

FrangibleCover · Sep 29, 2020

Alright, the people who do statistical modelling, please begin statistical modelling. I can't understand how to make a sensible decision here.

Fayhem · Sep 29, 2020

We're looking at what seems like a significant number of tough checks, I'd like to avoid any that the QM is specifically singling out as having major (or "huge", yikes) complications on top of the difficulty.

@open_sketch Since write-ins are on approval only for this, would you mind editing approved write-ins into the original post for ease of reference? To try to be helpful, by my tally our current approved write-ins with their assigned difficulty are:
[ ] Write In: Use Ordo Hereticus contacts/databases to collate reports on incidence of Chaos cult activity in systems (especially strategically significant ones) around the Eye to try to prove there's been a recent increase. (Normal Contacts)
[ ] Find out as much as possible about the High Lord from other sources, so that you can butter him up more easily and avoid possible missteps. (Impossible, I'm assuming Contacts)
[ ] Get Marvel-Ann to help you sort out the whole thing with the mutants and the STC. It'll further demonstrate your competence and you can hint that Araleth led you to it. (Hard, will have big complications, I'm not sure which attribute this would be under)
[ ] Get Araleth to summon a high ranking Eldar to watch the proceedings with us. Officially a coordinating liaison, implicitly a hostage. (Impossible, will have huge complications, I'm guessing this is also a Presence like the other Eldar checks)
[ ] Talk to our space marine friends to see if they have been seeing unusual demand for deployments. Because they only get called in for serious stuff, a pattern there should be more obvious than in the chaff of regular Imperial uprisings. (Impossible, I'm assuming Contacts)

I lightly edited the last two for spelling/clarity, hope that's not offensive.

Edit:

FrangibleCover said:
Alright, the people who do statistical modelling, please begin statistical modelling. I can't understand how to make a sensible decision here.

I have some Anydice code saved somewhere that I can use for this; I've been holding off while I see if we get some more approved write-ins that look good. Since it looks like we've got five now, or at least once the applicable attribute has been confirmed for all of them we will, I'll probably try to start doing some maffs to it on my lunch break probably. Since, yk, this post probably constitutes more than enough goofing off on the clock already...

open_sketch · Sep 29, 2020

Write-ins edited in.

Dark as Silver · Sep 29, 2020

open_sketch said:
the second will be Impossible as well (tracking space marines is HARD)

As a matter of fact, its not hard, its impossible.

open_sketch · Sep 29, 2020

Next thread, we're going to have a revamp of the difficulty system lol.

Dark as Silver · Sep 29, 2020

open_sketch said:
Next thread, we're going to have a revamp of the difficulty system lol.

You had me at next thread.

Fayhem · Sep 29, 2020

Alright, let's have a go at doing some mathhammer. Going to be cribbing from The Laurent's target number calcs where applicable (with some light editing here or there), target numbers for the approved write-ins will be my calcs. Dunno if adding extra successes does anything for us here, but it seems like something Sketch has factored into things in the past AFAICT? So I'll note odds there in some cases.

Wait, I just realized his calcs appear to be treating Hard checks like they're 6+, but Hard is 8+. Welp. A lot of target numbers just got less appealing.

Presence checks:

[ ] Araleth says that their Craftworld is loosely associated with the famed Eldar corsair Idraros, who holds the gilded banner of Saint Gwynine as a trophy. Seeing it returned to Valdor would be a good assurance. (Hard)--Presence 3, Talent: Propaganda (to make sure this is hyped up), Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory (to make sure it's approved and the church doesn't throw a shit-fit, etc,), target of 3

Target of 3 means that without adding anything we have a 80% chance of a partial success, and a 40% chance of a full success. Nah. Spending 1 Stress means we have a 96% chance of at least a partial success. My math gets fuzzier from there since my anydice code doesn't account for clearing the threshold by 4+ generating an additional success. But we'd have a 67.20% chance of both dice clearing the threshold, and a 64% chance of at least one die generating two successes. I'm not math-smart enough to put those probabilities together and make them into one number, but that's pretty good.

[ ] If they can send a ship to the Valdor sector, it will be a show of faith. It will also be incredibly dangerous for the Eldar. (Impossible)--Presence 3, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 6

Target of 6 means not spending anything gives us only a 50% chance of even a partial success, and a whopping 5% chance of a full success. 1 Stress still only gives us a 30% chance of a full success. 2 Stress still only gives us a 53.75% chance of a full success. To get appreciably better than 50/50 odds of a full success, we'd have to spend a whopping 3 Stress on one roll. I don't like this option.

[ ] Get Araleth to summon a high ranking Eldar to watch the proceedings with us. Officially a coordinating liaison, implicitly a hostage. (Impossible, will have huge complications)--Presence 3, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 6

Same unappealing math as above, but this time the check is explicitly noted by the QM to have "huge complications" presumably even in the event of a (costly) success. That's gonna be a hard pass from me dawg.

Contacts checks:

[ ] Go through the Order Hospitalliers and see if these plagues have taken root beyond Valdor. (Hard)--Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 3

Same math as for the previous target 3 roll.

[ ] Get in contact with the Void Stalkers chapter fighting in the Agripinaa sector, and get a full report of the scale of the fighting. (Hard) Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, maybe Talent, Verbal Sparring?, Target of either 3 or 4

Same math if it's a target of 3. If it's a target of 4 then 1 Stress gives us a 91% chance for a partial success, a 53.20% chance of both dice getting over the threshold, and a 51% chance of at least one die giving 2 successes. We might be able to squeeze by with 1 stress if we're needing to save?

[ ] Have a logistical plan laid out and ready to implement to support the redeployment of the fleet, ready and waiting for when the Lord Admiral arrives (Impossible)--Contacts 3, Talent: Logistics, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory (because all logistics that ignores the politics of the army will fail), maybe Trade: Manager bc we're not making a plan that size solo--Target 4 or 5

Target of 4 is same as above. For a target of 5 I'm not going to bother with the math for not spending anything again (it's still bad). But spending 1 Stress here gives us an 84% chance of at least a partial success, and a 40.80% chance of both dice clearing the threshold (which would give us a full success) and a 36% chance of at least one die clearing 9, which would also give us a full success. Still feels a bit chancy under the circumstances, so this one isn't a non-starter to me but I would probably want to spend 2 Stress on it (93.60% chance of a partial, 67.68% chance for both dice over the threshold, 48.80% chance for at least one die giving 2 successes).

[ ] Try to piece together reports of fighting in other sectors from logistics records. If there's uprisings occurring, that information would add to the circumstantial evidence. (Impossible)--Contacts 3, Trade: Manager, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Logistics, so a target of 4

Same math as previous targets of 4.

[ ] Write In: Use Ordo Hereticus contacts/databases to collate reports on incidence of Chaos cult activity in systems (especially strategically significant ones) around the Eye to try to prove there's been a recent increase. (Normal)--Contacts 3, I'd say either Trade: Manager or Trade: Spy should apply, Talent: Verbal Sparring, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, target of 0 that I assume converts into a target of 1

Target of 1 means that without adding anything we have a guaranteed partial success, a 60% chance of a full success, and a 20% chance of 3+ successes. Spending 1 Stress means we have a guaranteed full success, and an 84% chance of at least one die generating 2 successes (which would mean 3+ successes here). With or without stress, this is an automatic take.

[ ] Find out as much as possible about the High Lord from other sources, so that you can butter him up more easily and avoid possible missteps. (Impossible)--Contact 3, Trade: Spy maybe?, between our suite of social Talents (Verbal Sparring, Seduction, Dishonesty, Intimidation) it seems like at least one could apply, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, target of 4 or 5

Same math as the last time.

[ ] Talk to our space marine friends to see if they have been seeing unusual demand for deployments. Because they only get called in for serious stuff, a pattern there should be more obvious than in the chaff of regular Imperial uprisings. (Impossible)--Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, maybe Talent, Verbal Sparring? or maybe Talent: Logistics if we're collating reports?, target of 5 or 6

Same math as for both numbers previously.

Charm checks:

[ ] Make nice with the demonhunter, and see if you can get him to confirm or deny the demonic nature of the plague. (Impossible)--Charm 4, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 4

Same math.

[ ] Go to the Governor and whip their plague-fighting efforts into shape. If you have things more under control here, you'll look more competent. (Hard, will involve subsequent decisions and checks)--Charm 4, Trade: Manager, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Logistics, target of 1

Same math, probably another auto-take although the "subsequent decisions and checks" is potentially concerning.

[ ] Convince de Villarreal to pitch in more with your side of things, specifically in using his authority to bring in resources and spread the blame a little. (Hard)--Charm 4, Talent: Propaganda (or one of the aforementioned social suite), maybe Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory?, target of 2 or 3

If it's a target of 2 we'd have a 10% chance of failing outright and only a 50% chance of a full success if we didn't spend something. In a lower stakes scenario I might say "fuck it", but here and now, when we have explicit QM confirmation that failures can make things worse, this could potentially warrant a Stress? 1 Stress would give us a 99% chance of at least a partial success. But we'd have an 82.80% chance of both dice clearing the threshold, and a 75% chance of at least one of them clearing the threshold by 4+. Target of 3 is same math as last time.

[ ] Get in good with the Lord High Admiral's son. If he likes you, perhaps the Admiral would be more willing to listen. (variable difficulty)

Variable difficulty means variable math. @open_sketch Can you confirm what the variation here is based on? At what point would we learn the actual target number?

[ ] Get Marvel-Ann to help you sort out the whole thing with the mutants and the STC. It'll further demonstrate your competence and you can hint that Araleth led you to it. (Hard, QM indicated would have big complications)--Charm 4, Trade: Manager maybe?, Talent: Verbal Sparring or another one of the social talents maybe? or Talent: Logistics?, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory?--lot of question marks there, but if everything applies it's a target of 1

Target of 1 is potentially appealing, but the "big complications" make me worried. And depending on what QM rules applies that target could be anywhere from 1-4.

I'll start fiddling with a plan in a bit, but I'd like to hear from our glorious QM re: my question about what "variable difficulty" means exactly in practice. And if she has time to confirm which skills apply, that would be awesome.

Oh! And on the topic of bugging @open_sketch, what attribute/skills will the final check with the Lord High Admiral use? That's going to be relevant for planning bc it will affect how much it looks like we need to knock the number of required successes down by.

Portec · Sep 29, 2020

open_sketch said:
Next thread, we're going to have a revamp of the difficulty system lol.

The rolls are hard. She is just stacked to be really good in them. We just avoided fights were possible.

open_sketch · Sep 29, 2020

Portec said:
The rolls are hard. She is just stacked to be really good in them. We just avoided fights were possible.

Yeah I'm just going to be adjusting things so there's a higher high end sorta.

Portec · Sep 29, 2020

open_sketch said:
Yeah I'm just going to be adjusting things so there's a higher high end sorta.

Have you not already done that once when easy (4+) rolls were still a thing?

The Laurent · Sep 29, 2020

I will say, @Fayhem , that we honestly can't actually afford to spend Stress in the way you're talking about. If the target is 3, we kinda just have to go for it if we want to actually succeed in the final roll that all of this is just setup for.

Because we will explicitly need a bunch of stresses for the final roll. Like, it's literally impossible for us to get the final roll, barring us doing and succeeding everything here, without at *least* two stress.

So if we have a target of 2 or 3, we just suck it up and hope, because the alternative is *also* losing, just in a different way.

Fayhem · Sep 29, 2020

I haven't really played with tallying total stress yet bc I haven't tried assembling a full plan yet - you could very possibly be right about that though, I just like tallying the numbers myself. I will note that IIRC it isn't actually disallowed to go over your "cap" for Stress (etc.), the overage will just be applied as a penalty on future rolls. Which is pretty bad so I'd certainly prefer to chart a course that doesn't go there, but if anything is worth it then this is. So we could in theory push past our limit for the final meeting with the Lord High Admiral.

The Laurent · Sep 29, 2020

Fayhem said:
I haven't really played with tallying total stress yet bc I haven't tried assembling a full plan yet - you could very possibly be right about that though, I just like tallying the numbers myself. I will note that IIRC it isn't actually disallowed to go over your "cap" for Stress (etc.), the overage will just be applied as a penalty on future rolls. Which is pretty bad so I'd certainly prefer to chart a course that doesn't go there, but if anything is worth it then this is. So we could in theory push past our limit for the final meeting with the Lord High Admiral.

I'm pretty sure Sketch would penalize that beyond, like, a small degree. I feel like we should do every roll of Difficulty 5 (when you count in the Skills) or lower, and should only ever spend 1 stress per roll. Yes, a partial success means complications, but at a certain point we just have to eat the imperfect.

Just as a reminder, the current final roll will be an Impossible (no clue whether Charm, Presence, or Contacts, but it's Social by definition) Roll with 12 successes required. This is actually literally impossible, obviously, so we need to decrease it a lot, and assume that at best with the right Skills we might get into a 60% chance of success per dice.

If you're doing the math, calculate that, anywhere from a range of 60% to 40% per dice, and how that interacts with our Stress spending.

Glau · Sep 29, 2020

So, better to rule out the ones we can't afford the complications on first?

Then try everything else with as little stress as possible, hope we can use the pre-turn to smooth over anything that would make us look bad...

The Laurent · Sep 29, 2020

[] Plan--Don't Miss your Chance to Blow.

No Stress Allocated Yet. These are just the ones that are generally viable. We might winnow this down.

12 successes needed.

The Eldar - Presence Checks
Nobody trusts the Eldar in any capacity. What can you extract from them to try and convince the Lord Admiral of their intentions?

[ ] Araleth says that their Craftworld is loosely associated with the famed Eldar corsair Idraros, who holds the gilded banner of Saint Gwynine as a trophy. Seeing it returned to Valdor would be a good assurance. (Hard)--Presence 3, Talent: Propaganda (to make sure this is hyped up), Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory (to make sure it's approved and the church doesn't throw a shit-fit, etc,), target of 3, maybe don't spend stress? We'll see
[ ] Get Araleth to summon a high ranking Eldar to watch the proceedings with us. Officially a coordinating liaison, implicitly a hostage. (Impossible, will have huge complications, I'm guessing this is also a Presence like the other Eldar checks)--Presence 3, Imperial Politics, Dishonesty (cause we're gonna lie like a bitch), Trade: Spy, because this is some spycraft stuff--Target of 4

10 successes needed if both are taken and succeed.

The Bureaucracy - Contacts Checks
[ ] Go through the Order Hospitalliers and see if these plagues have taken root beyond Valdor. (Hard)--Initial Target of 8, Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Verbal Sparring, final Target of 3
[ ] Get in contact with the Void Stalkers chapter fighting in the Agripinaa sector, and get a full report of the scale of the fighting. (Hard) Initial target of 8, Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Verbal Sparring, Target of 3.
[ ] Try to piece together reports of fighting in other sectors from logistics records. If there's uprisings occurring, that information would add to the circumstantial evidence. (Impossible)--Contacts 3, Trade: Manager, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Logistics, for a total of -6, so a target of 4.
[ ] Have a logistical plan laid out and ready to implement to support the redeployment of the fleet, ready and waiting for when the Lord Admiral arrives (Impossible)--Contacts 3, Talent: Logistics, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory (because all logistics that ignores the politics of the army will fail)--Target 5, definitely need a Stress. Maybe more?
[ ] Try to piece together reports of fighting in other sectors from logistics records. If there's uprisings occurring, that information would add to the circumstantial evidence. (Impossible)--Initial target of 10, Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Logistics, Target of 5
[ ] Write In: Use Ordo Hereticus contacts/databases to collate reports on incidence of Chaos cult activity in systems (especially strategically significant ones) around the Eye to try to prove there's been a recent increase. (Normal Contacts)--Target 6 initially, Contacts 3, Talent: Dishonesty (lie about why to make it less suss), Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Target of 1 finally.
[ ] Find out as much as possible about the High Lord from other sources, so that you can butter him up more easily and avoid possible missteps. (Impossible)--10-3 (Contacts)-1 (Talent: Dishonesty)-1 (Knowledge: Political Theory)-1 (Trade: Spy)=Target of 4, might be worth it.

If all succeed, then just 3 sux left needed. But, uh, yeah.

Interpersonal - Charm Checks
[ ] Make nice with the demonhunter, and see if you can get him to confirm or deny the demonic nature of the plague. (Impossible)--Charm 4, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 4.
[ ] Go to the Governor and whip their plague-fighting efforts into shape. If you have things more under control here, you'll look more competent. (Hard, will involve subsequent decisions and checks)--Charm 4, Trade: Manager, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Logistics, target of 1! Yay!
[ ] Convince de Villarreal to pitch in more with your side of things, specifically in using his authority to bring in resources and spread the blame a little. (Hard)--Charm 4, Talent: Propaganda, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory! Target of 2
[ ] Get in good with the Lord High Admiral's son. If he likes you, perhaps the Admiral would be more willing to listen. (variable difficulty)--Charm 4, Talent: Propaganda (to live up to our reputation), and perhaps Political Theory, but we don't know yet here.
[ ] Get Marvel-Ann to help you sort out the whole thing with the mutants and the STC. It'll further demonstrate your competence and you can hint that Araleth led you to it. (Hard)--Charm 4, Talent: Seduction (to help motivate her.

), Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Target of 6

In theory if we did all of these and they all worked we'd be at -2 sux left, so with some slack. But, uh, look at this list and start trying to think about what and when and where to prune.

Fayhem · Sep 29, 2020

The Laurent said:
If you're doing the math, calculate that, anywhere from a range of 60% to 40% per dice, and how that interacts with our Stress spending.

Sure! Let's go for the less-optimistic but plausible scenario of it being something like Presence or Contacts where we only have a 3. I don't see how Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory could fail to apply here, and I'd likewise be very surprised if we couldn't apply at least one Talent. So that would give us a target of 5, which means we have a 54% chance of a single success per die, and a 20%-ish chance of generating two or more successes per die by exceeding the threshold. if we luck out and it's Charm then it's a target of 4 in this scenario. That's a 63% chance of a single success per die, and a 30%-ish chance of generating two or more successes per die by exceeding the threshold. The -ish qualifier is because the anydice program I'm using can factor in exploding d10s or I can shift the target number it's calculating for to get some idea of odds for exceeding the target by 4, but it can't really do both at once in a complete way. So the uncertainty factor in the -ish is exclusively the odds actually being at least slightly better than that for multiple successes per die, not potentially being worse.

The only way to reach the low end of the range you asked for is if we can only apply 0-1 of our skills and it's also not a Charm check. Honestly, I don't find that scenario likely - we have a lot of skills and they're largely focused towards social stuff. But if we can only apply a single skill (0 skills I just don't see happening) and it's not a Charm check so we wind up with a target of 6, then that's a 45% chance of at least a single success per die, and a 10% chance of two or more successes per die.

Glau said:
So, better to rule out the ones we can't afford the complications on first?

I agree with this, I want to crunch the numbers on a plan that includes stress spending before deciding if we should spend bare minimum stress on everything. Remember that failing to succeed means things can actually get worse; it's more serious than just not getting the success requirement reduction we want for the final check.

Fayhem · Sep 30, 2020

I was going to try to put together a sample plan including stress allocation, but then partway through I tried to improve the math I was using so I could make better choices, gave myself a headache, contacted some actual math professors I know, got somewhat better math maybe I don't even know anymore but still a headache, and have settled on giving up on this math puzzle of a decision for tonight in favor of bugging the QM for more info that would be relevant to making a plan.

To wit, answers to these questions would be greatly appreciated @open_sketch:

1. [ ] Get in good with the Lord High Admiral's son. If he likes you, perhaps the Admiral would be more willing to listen. (variable difficulty)
??? What does "variable difficulty" mean exactly? Does it mean we don't find out how hard the roll is until we've already committed to attempting it?

2. We have a whole retinue for a reason. I'm assuming our pilot who officially doesn't care unless it has jet engines won't be of much use here, but we also have Charitina, Dahlia, Marvel-Ann, and Bookter. Can they lend a support die to any of these possible rolls?
2a. And if so, which ones?
2b. And if so, can they only assist on a single roll out of the set of possible rolls, or could they potentially assist on more than one?
2c. If they can only assist on a single roll, does that mean that helping on a prep roll precludes them helping on the roll with the Lord High Admiral? Or is them helping with the Lord High Admiral out of the question anyway? ...Could Araleth help with the Lord High Admiral roll (I'm assuming their contribution to the prep part is making the "The Eldar" category accessible at all)?

FrangibleCover · Sep 30, 2020

Fayhem said:
contacted some actual math professors I know

I don't know what the next thread's system is going to be, but it's got to be one that doesn't require this to work out voting.

Glau · Sep 30, 2020

It seems like crunching the numbers to make the optimal play is the dominant strategy here, but I'm going to wing it an go on instinct, plus Laurent's work so far.

The Laurent said:
Contacts--
[ ] Go through the Order Hospitalliers and see if these plagues have taken root beyond Valdor. (Hard)--Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 1, can ignore spending stress... cause fuck if we'll definitely need it.
[ ] Get in contact with the Void Stalkers chapter fighting in the Agripinaa sector, and get a full report of the scale of the fighting. (Hard) Contacts 3, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, maybe Talent, Verbal Sparring?, Target of either 1 or 2... we *might* be able to skip a stress here, maybe.
[ ] Try to piece together reports of fighting in other sectors from logistics records. If there's uprisings occurring, that information would add to the circumstantial evidence. (Impossible)--Contacts 3, Trade: Manager, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Logistics, for a total of -6, so a target of 4, will probably need a Stress.
[ ] Have a logistical plan laid out and ready to implement to support the redeployment of the fleet, ready and waiting for when the Lord Admiral arrives (Impossible)--Contacts 3, Talent: Logistics, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory (because all logistics that ignores the politics of the army will fail)--Target 5, definitely need a Stress. Maybe more?

Presence--
[ ] Araleth says that their Craftworld is loosely associated with the famed Eldar corsair Idraros, who holds the gilded banner of Saint Gwynine as a trophy. Seeing it returned to Valdor would be a good assurance. (Hard)--Presence 3, Talent: Propaganda (to make sure this is hyped up), Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory (to make sure it's approved and the church doesn't throw a shit-fit, etc,), target of 1, doesn't really need a stress (yes, I'm gonna be having to save them up for whatever nightmare roll we make at the end.)
[ ] If they can send a ship to the Valdor sector, it will be a show of faith. It will also be incredibly dangerous for the Eldar. (Impossible)--Presence 3, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 6, might need 2 stress, so it's not a good expenditure, maybe?

Charm--
[ ] Make nice with the demonhunter, and see if you can get him to confirm or deny the demonic nature of the plague. (Impossible)--Charm 4, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Verbal Sparring, target of 4, will definitely need a stress.
[ ] Go to the Governor and whip their plague-fighting efforts into shape. If you have things more under control here, you'll look more competent. (Hard, will involve subsequent decisions and checks)--Charm 4, Trade: Manager, Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory, Talent: Logistics, target of 0, autowin!
[ ] Convince de Villarreal to pitch in more with your side of things, specifically in using his authority to bring in resources and spread the blame a little. (Hard)--Charm 4, Talent: Propaganda, maybe Knowledge: Imperial Political Theory? If all of those go, it's an auto-win, if not target of 1.
[ ] Get in good with the Lord High Admiral's son. If he likes you, perhaps the Admiral would be more willing to listen. (variable difficulty)--Charm 4, Talent: Propaganda (to live up to our reputation), and perhaps Political Theory, but we don't know yet here.

[x] Plan Winging it
-[x] Go through the Order Hospitalliers and see if these plagues have taken root beyond Valdor.
-[x] Get in contact with the Void Stalkers chapter fighting in the Agripinaa sector, and get a full report of the scale of the fighting.
-[x] Try to piece together reports of fighting in other sectors from logistics records. If there's uprisings occurring, that information would add to the circumstantial evidence. (One Stress)
-[x] Have a logistical plan laid out and ready to implement to support the redeployment of the fleet, ready and waiting for when the Lord Admiral arrives (One stress)
-[x] Araleth says that their Craftworld is loosely associated with the famed Eldar corsair Idraros, who holds the gilded banner of Saint Gwynine as a trophy. Seeing it returned to Valdor would be a good assurance.
-[x] Make nice with the demonhunter, and see if you can get him to confirm or deny the demonic nature of the plague. (One stress)
-[x] Go to the Governor and whip their plague-fighting efforts into shape. If you have things more under control here, you'll look more competent.
-[x] Convince de Villarreal to pitch in more with your side of things, specifically in using his authority to bring in resources and spread the blame a little.
-[x] Get in good with the Lord High Admiral's son. If he likes you, perhaps the Admiral would be more willing to listen. (One stress)
-[x] Write In: Use Ordo Hereticus contacts/databases to collate reports on incidence of Chaos cult activity in systems (especially strategically significant ones) around the Eye to try to prove there's been a recent increase

So, four stress spent, almost all of the available options selected, solid chances for them. I'd spend more stress but we do have a clean-up turn and a need to preserve everything we can, so this is a bit of a gamble.

Portec · Sep 30, 2020

@planmaker: Please remember that we need a double success for full effect as only one will come with some form of complication. More succs will improve the result.

Chances for Targets:

[LINK]

Target 1, 0 Stress	Chance
1 Succ	40.00
At least 2 Succ	60.00

Target 1, 1 Stress	Chance
At least 2 Succ	100.00

Target 2, 0 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	10.00
1 Succ	40.00
At least 2 Succ	50.00

Target 2, 1 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	1.00
1 Succ	8.00
At least 2 Succ	91.00

Target 3, 0 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	20.00
1 Succ	40.00
At least 2 Succ	40.00

Target 3, 1 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	4.00
1 Succ	16.00
At least 2 Succ	80.00

Target 4, 0 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	30.00
1 Succ	40.00
At least 2 Succ	30.00

Target 4, 1 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	9.00
1 Succ	24.00
At least 2 Succ	67.00

Target 5, 0 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	40.00
1 Succ	40.00
At least 2 Succ	20.00

Target 5, 1 Stress	Chance
0 Succ	16.00
1 Succ	32.00
At least 2 Succ	52.00

To get a feel for what RNGesus has to gift us with.

The Laurent · Sep 30, 2020

Portec said:
@planmaker: Please remember that we need a double success for full effect as only one will come with some form of complication. More succs will improve the result.

Chances for Targets:

[LINK]

Target 1, 0 Stress Chance
1 Succ 40.00
At least 2 Succ 60.00

Target 1, 1 Stress Chance
At least 2 Succ 100.00

Target 2, 0 Stress Chance
0 Succ 10.00
1 Succ 40.00
At least 2 Succ 50.00

Target 2, 1 Stress Chance
0 Succ 1.00
1 Succ 8.00
At least 2 Succ 91.00

Target 3, 0 Stress Chance
0 Succ 20.00
1 Succ 40.00
At least 2 Succ 40.00

Target 3, 1 Stress Chance
0 Succ 4.00
1 Succ 16.00
At least 2 Succ 80.00

Target 4, 0 Stress Chance
0 Succ 30.00
1 Succ 40.00
At least 2 Succ 30.00

Target 4, 1 Stress Chance
0 Succ 9.00
1 Succ 24.00
At least 2 Succ 67.00

Target 5, 0 Stress Chance
0 Succ 40.00
1 Succ 40.00
At least 2 Succ 20.00

Target 5, 1 Stress Chance
0 Succ 16.00
1 Succ 32.00
At least 2 Succ 52.00

To get a feel for what RNGesus has to gift us with.

At the same time, complications are, like, just what you have to do sometimes? We cannot afford to have a complication-free experience and also actually succeed.

Eventually if you're going to take a bath you're gonna have to get wet.

Portec · Sep 30, 2020

The Laurent said:
At the same time, complications are, like, just what you have to do sometimes? We cannot afford to have a complication-free experience and also actually succeed.

Eventually if you're going to take a bath you're gonna have to get wet.

You are completly right.
One recent complication was during the underhive expedition that gave 3 sore. Each complication might cause further checks and different problems.
The hard thing is to balance stress with those risks. Open_Sketch has already pointed out that the easier actions have worse complications.

Fayhem · Sep 30, 2020

open_sketch said:
Every step you complete below will reduce the number of successes you need by 1. Failures may make things worse.

Emphasis mine. I feel like this is getting glossed over. The issue isn't just "only getting a partial success will mean dealing with complications", it's that attempting a roll and failing outright can straight-up set us back in terms of our end goal. Rolling against a target of 3 and spending no stress means we have a 20% chance of failing outright. Rolling against a target of 5 and spending only one stress means we have a roughly 16% chance of failing outright. If we pile up a set of 8-10 checks where most of them have a 16-20% chance of outright failure, we are extremely likely to fail at least one of those outright and actively harm our chances. Fewer rolls with a higher chance of success each may be the sounder strategy if we have to pick one.

And specifically to @Glau, your plan appears to have skipped the option for "[ ] Write In: Use Ordo Hereticus contacts/databases to collate reports on incidence of Chaos cult activity in systems (especially strategically significant ones) around the Eye to try to prove there's been a recent increase." Is that an oversight? That's a check with a target of 1, meaning we literally can't fail it. That feels like it should be an automatic take for any plan to me.

Suffer Not ≡][≡ 40k Inquisition Quest

I don't know how to use a computer

DON'T PANIC

I don't know how to use a computer

Definitely not an escaped SCP

I don't know how to use a computer

I don't know how to use a computer

Definitely not an escaped SCP

I don't know how to use a computer

Definitely not an escaped SCP

Definitely not an escaped SCP

Definitely not an escaped SCP

Definitely not an escaped SCP