Eh, fuck it. I don't really want to lynch Ellf for mostly having commitments that are far more important. Not like I didn't vote Cake earlier anyway, for inactivity actually I think. I might look at him later, since I like wasting effort.
Ehh whatever, I have to follow whatever train is second most popular to my own. I can't actually risk thinking about it when the alternative is me getting deleted.
Well, that's a turnaround. (I seriously expected to be voting for Rikimaru right now.) Only six hours left and things have been moving fast as usual. And they'll probbly keep moving after I go to sleep tonight.
Cakestepid was last seen five hours ago, so he might not even be around to defend himself. @Cakestepid hey, it's the last minute and the vote might be swinging your direction, assuming people trust Terra and Broken enough to switch off Riki.
Surely Terra and BB changing their targets is enough for others to change theirs too? I have clearly fixed my effort and content level from beforehand where I was legitimately gonna be lynched. Now, the lynch isn't really rational anymore since I am clearly at least doing my best to be town. Other players are being looked at a little bit now, so more info
Well, that's a turnaround. (I seriously expected to be voting for Rikimaru right now.) Only six hours left and things have been moving fast as usual. And they'll probbly keep moving after I go to sleep tonight.
Cakestepid was last seen five hours ago, so he might not even be around to defend himself. @Cakestepid hey, it's the last minute and the vote might be swinging your direction, assuming people trust Terra and Broken enough to switch off Riki.
Do ya think you can vote to lynch Cake anyway? I've defended myself so helping to get another target in the realm of potential lynching will be beneficial. Forces people to reveal at least something minor, like who they'd rather lynch even after dozen or so posts of me.
If I do get lynched, that indicates that everyone bar BB and Terra are happy with it, which would mean that either they underestimated the chance of people focusing on me as their teammate (which is a ridiculous thing to think, since there are plenty of other targets they could have picked to easily focus on without suspicion and they would be fully aware of my bad defenses), or I am NOT scum and scum is hiding in the plethora of those refusing to change their votes from me because they don't want to risk the train shifting uncontrollably...
So in fact, the widespread support for lynching me despite my full efforts, is evidence of me being town or part of a very weak scum group since no one bar two top players are doing much to defend me and they helped start the train in the first place.
I'm still online, and if Cake doesn't show up it makes more sense to lynch him for being inactive than to lynch you. Baring any sudden crazyness, which can possibly happen.
Sorry, to be more clear, it's possible something could still happen to make people want to change the vote again, as unlikely as that is. But I predict I'll be voting to lynch Cake before I'm out for the night. So, uh, hell, I'll just do it now and stick around if I need to change it.
Thanks, now only need 2 people from the lynch train on me to switch to Cake. @QTesseract and @Nictis please let me live, or do an explanation why cake is less reasonable to lynch than me.
Which is fine once we have stances and suspicions. The problem is when you press before that happens, insisting that they exist when in truth they do not. You refuse to believe it, so you keep pressing for information that simply is not there, getting angry and frustrated when whoever you are asking refuses to lie about that.
1: Don't make a big deal of it early on. Saying "I don't think we should kill anyone today" or something similar like that at the start of the day is only going to detract from it. If someone is questioning why you aren't voting anyone at the start, claiming to be waiting for a good reason or considering who to vote for is a lot more acceptable.
2: Try to gather info, if you don't want to vote at all at least try to put out some reads on people. You don't have to vote in order to question people.
I mean, I think Winged Cat is still one of the more likely Candidates for being scum. I assume you know whether you are scum or not. If you're town, taking your vote off the (now most likely, since you know you are town) vote makes little sense without a competing bandwagon, while if you were mafia it also makes little sense? I'm not sure what this signals, actually, but I'd like to highlight to others just how weird this is.
It makes a certain kind of sense actually, like if someone voted somebody who everyone thought was Town and then got a lot of flak for it, backing off is a way to seem like less of a priority.
Okay so, these large posts are rather intense lol. I do think that informed scum is a nigh on certainty, judging that scum are a bunch of cheating dicks who want to win a mario party game for big money.
So expect them to have dat knowledge, and probably the night actions are based off cheats, then maybe the cheaters have a hacking ability and can delete computers or something?
Them being cheaters being the biggest thing, feels like a bit of prep for claiming to be a good [Whatever scum is]. Also, what is this about big money?
No. I don't like this constant asking of people to get off your wagon, you haven't done anything to defend yourself and you haven't done any scumhunting. I'll admit that I'm not thinking very well right now, but I'm honestly not seeing a reason not to lynch you, and every time you ask people to leave you alone leaves a bad taste for me to question.
One of the challenges of this game, I feel, is that — barring perhaps investigative roles that provide flavor, such as "the culprit was wearing overalls" — we can't tell much about someone's role or alignment just from the character they're playing. Not to pick on Rikimaru, but the knowledge that he's a Shy Guy doesn't tell us much, because such a character could easily be a CPU or a Player, since barring internal logic on the QMs part ("The mafia consists only of characters created prior to 1995" for instance) they're presumably chosen from the same list.
In a way, I guess it's like a Cult Game, in that an Anti-Town role can honestly roleclaim to a degree without implicating themselves.
One of the challenges of this game, I feel, is that — barring perhaps investigative roles that provide flavor, such as "the culprit was wearing overalls" — we can't tell much about someone's role or alignment just from the character they're playing. Not to pick on Rikimaru, but the knowledge that he's a Shy Guy doesn't tell us much, because such a character could easily be a CPU or a Player, since barring internal logic on the QMs part ("The mafia consists only of characters created prior to 1995" for instance) they're presumably chosen from the same list.
In a way, I guess it's like a Cult Game, in that an Anti-Town role can honestly roleclaim to a degree without implicating themselves.
Thing is, I wouldn't want a full roleclaim before the final hour or three and a character claim does limit the fakeclaims scum could make later. Mass claiming is probably not desirable, but to use myself as an example I have narrowed down my character by admitting to being on Lizard Knight's list of unsportsmanlike fellows, and ergo I am unable to fakeclaim something I can't justify under any of them, if we presume I am actually scum.
Furthermore, if I actually am lying and all the characters on that list are other players who all wind up claiming, I will get future attention as people realize either I'm lying or (less likely) one of the others is.
In general, we can assume Rikimaru is probably Shy Guy, because no one has counterclaimed, and if he tries to claim something that is contrary to his character's flavor, we can scrutinize it. And if we have any investigatives that do gather flavor of some kind, such as character per se, we may catch him in a lie if he is indeed lying.
It's less helpful to us assessing, but that also applies to scum. If he is a doctor or cop or vanilla, scum don't know yet and can't accurately assess the threat of his role. Assuming he is town, it is better if he can get the lynch off him without a full claim.
I agree with Terra but... eh, I don't know many Mario Party players that would, out of the potential character list, choose Shy Guy tbh.
-------------
So we have roughly 5 hours left. Not quite crisis time but... kind of getting there, given that there isn't a super strong competing wagon, one player on Riki is gone and can't switch, and another party has shown a firm opposition to switching.
Basically we need multiple shifts to Cake, and hope that he comes online and we don't potentially have to lynch a player that can't give us a role name or power. That'd be... maddening.
Let's say that he does come online and provides a convincing claim, or at least a provable one, then Riki is going to be the lynch target. They then need to maybe a full claim, if they want any hope of surviving. Of course, after Riki the biggest sized wagons are two (LMBF and Winged Cat). Let's say we get all this done and still has 1-2 hours left. We still need to swing a wagon on LMBF or Winged Cat (blegh) and essentially acknowledge that a claim isn't going to matter, because there isn't time to apparate a wagon out of thin air.
One of the challenges of this game, I feel, is that — barring perhaps investigative roles that provide flavor, such as "the culprit was wearing overalls" — we can't tell much about someone's role or alignment just from the character they're playing. Not to pick on Rikimaru, but the knowledge that he's a Shy Guy doesn't tell us much, because such a character could easily be a CPU or a Player, since barring internal logic on the QMs part ("The mafia consists only of characters created prior to 1995" for instance) they're presumably chosen from the same list.
In a way, I guess it's like a Cult Game, in that an Anti-Town role can honestly roleclaim to a degree without implicating themselves.
Presumably, either the game is balanced to the point where we don't need an investigative role (rare kills? other scouting? lots of defensive roles?), or whatever rolecop we have, you know, actually works.
If you mean in terms of dayclaiming, we almost never have a guarantee.
So we have roughly 5 hours left. Not quite crisis time but... kind of getting there, given that there isn't a super strong competing wagon, one player on Riki is gone and can't switch, and another party has shown a firm opposition to switching.
Yeah. I hesitate to suggest a full roleclaim given my early game history, but it may be best if Riki does so soon, if he wants to live.
My read at this point is this is the kind of flailing he did back in the Stars are Right or Trouble in Cretaceous Park, where he was town, which is a good chunk of why I'm trying to give him a chance.
Adhoc vote count started by Ellf on Jul 28, 2018 at 11:27 PM, finished with 314 posts and 17 votes.
Right then. Okay. Now I'm at my computer and there's not a lot of time left to post. I know that right now, I haven't been the most active, but I've been spending the weekend with my wife, had an endoscopy and well, my birthday's tomorrow. So... Reasons. I also haven't really had as much to say as in previous games because a couple of people have taken my usual role and run with it quite well.
That said. I'm getting a very scummy vibe from Derpmind. The way they've responded to certain posts just feels off to me. I don't have enough to build a case on this close to the end of the day, but I suggest any investigative roles, whoever they are, take a bit of a look at Derpmind tonight. If, for some reason, Derpmind isn't unsportsmanlike, ie. Derpmind's town, don't reveal the result but try to argue a different wagon. Give Derpmind a chance to prove that they aren't scum.
Were I scum, my best picks for targets tonight would be @Nictis and @Broken Base with how they're leading town. That said, they're also obvious protect fodder. A secondary kill, assuming Rikimaru isn't among the scum would be @Rikimaru. Sort of semi-random, but could be argued to be anyone who was pushing hard for Riki's lynch.
Winged Cat also hasn't fully convinced me that they aren't scum with their town name reveal with few votes on them. I might have overlooked an argument or two, but I'm not entirely certain why the wagon didn't stay on them.
Winged Cat also hasn't fully convinced me that they aren't scum with their town name reveal with few votes on them. I might have overlooked an argument or two, but I'm not entirely certain why the wagon didn't stay on them.
Like... here's my issue I guess. Not only did this wagon get to 7 votes really fast, and I'm not sure how comfortable I am with that, but like... not everybody has even really checked in yet? We've pushed a player to 7 votes without even all the players present? That doesn't make me the most comfortable person in the world with all this. I wanted pressure but this has escalated really fast and I feel like there might be room to back down a bit and see what else there is to see?
The case isn't really... super strong either? I'm really thinking the lack of information is a playstyle thing, and overall while much of the responses frustrate me I really think we kind of spun each other into cycles of rage, and that really didn't help things. There's a lot about the play I question, but I'm not sure how much of it is scummy, how much of it is Winged Cat, and how much of it is just me kind of seeing what I want to see.
The main thing is the way that Winged Cat claimed NPC and that's something I'm... really not sure on? I don't like the random time he revealed it, I don't like the way he revealed it within the post itself. At the same time, I could see Winged Cat getting caught up in the emotion and trying to drop something like that to score some towncred? Like, it's at least in theory possible, and I'm not sure it's something I want to really bet on at the moment, given the circumstances?
Like at the very least I think we should wait until everybody is accounted for. Then we can discuss claims- and again, with 7 votes (potentially 8 soon), we're certainly getting there. I definitely wouldn't mind a couple votes kept on Winged Cat so that we maintain traction if we decide that's the direction we want to go but like... I'm really unconvinced we shouldn't explore other angles too? We've got the time.
I've just calmed down a bit and i kind of am rethinking things here, and just am worried we're going a little fast.
Then I agree with it as an issue, in part because (though I didn't think to explicitly articulate it at the time), wagons launching that high that fast on no hard evidence is, in my experience, a soft sign the player is town. Scum don't want to jump on their allies wagons.
Also, a lot of the votes against Winged Cat were more irritation based than suspicion, which had me personally feeling the case was weaker than the vote count suggests. (irritation would also be a good cover for a scum player vote, for that matter).
So I jump over to Riki because his behavior was bugging me...
Hmm. That's fair. And I have an alternate suspect as I outlined.
[X] Null Winged Cat
[X] Lynch Rikimaru
Point me a better target than you, @Rikimaru. Do some analysis. Convince me you are broadly shaped like a town player in spite of your weird theories, if you would.
In probably my last display of effort for the night, I decided to go through Rikimaru's ouvre, which is a bit tricier than WC's, and see what comes up.
Post 1- Starts the lmbf wagon.
Just starting a wagon during the opening portion of the game. Not much to talk about here, except maybe that it's LMBF.
Post 2- LMBF joke
Meh. Nothing here.
Post 3- Jester speculation
Just general Jester natter. Nothing important.
Post 4- Defends Lizard Knight.
I find it kind of interesting that Riki would jump in to defend Lizard Knight from me- while I did say I found him rather suspicious, it's not like I voted him or put that much pressure on him. Yet he does a decently extended defense (ballpark 80 words), and this is super early in the game so I'm skeptical that he has a townread on him. It could just be an attempt to correct me, but it seems a little off.
Post 5- Talks about lmbf being a wildcard and too quiet
More anti-lmbf stuff. Etc. etc.
Post 6- Natter
Meh.
Post 7- Immediately backs off lmbf without explaining why.
This is... really weird. Riki has spent 3-4 posts out of his 7 arguing against lmbf, mocking lmbf, and arguing for a lynch, but given a rather basic explanation he completely flip-flops without any real explanation? After spending a lot of time, comparatively speaking, going after them, suddenly backing down seems curious. Kindof doubt it's a scumbuddy thing but it's... strange. It is probably worth noting that having lmbf around unchained could be very useful for scum, though why put him up for lynch in the first place then? Curious.
Post 8- Actually encourages lmbf to act against our agreement for them even if we all agree to said agreement.
This one kind of makes me go ??????
Like, when you have lmbf, who is at least kind of a loose cannon, and i suggest that they do what the majority asks of them, and then Riki suddenly says "even if we agree to that doing whatever you want, even though that has proven incredibly problematic in the past, is okay."
I'm not sure what Riki is trying to do here, but it feels like his suggestion could only cause collateral damage.
Post 9- Natter
Meh.
Post 10- Votes Winged Cat and attempts to direct the cop to investigate me
No reason, explicitly says he doesn't just not care about this lynch, but any lynch. It's the 5th vote, which is a pretty good time for scum to slink in without looking too suspicious. And then he tries to direct the cop to go my way if Winged Cat flips town. And honestly, the way it's framed and just the whole idea if "if Winged Cat flips town, you'd better check X" kind of makes me feel like Riki knows or heavily suspects WC is going to flip town? Less certain because multiple scum groups and the like are basically inevitable, but... it bugs me. The directing cop at the very least is bad civ, as well as basically everything else about that post.
Post 11- A bunch of speculation including the weird "cheat codes" stuff, framed to get people to suspect WInged Cat
Attempting to increase the pressure on Winged Cat, and the whole cheat thing is still really weird.
BONUS ROUND
ummmm
So aside from his last couple really strange posts, Riki's posts are divided into primarily discussing lmbf and Winged Cat, with a dose of natter and defending Lizard Knight on the side.
Some quick bullet points:
1. His lmbf feels a bit erratic, pushing lmbf in several posts but backing off immediately when given an explanation and providing no reasoning.
2. He then suggests that lmbf actively go against our consensus agreement even if we arrange to have the agreement, which I can't see benefiting town at all.
3. I like nothing about his Winged Cat vote post
4. Kind of find his Lizard Knight defense strange, though I'm not sure what it means.
Honestly I'm not sure what I was thinking about Riki's contributions because they're often lackluster or outright strange or problematic. He still is playing a bit different from his cult game and there's some really mixed messages in his postings but...
Which seems to have convinced a lot of people, especially thanks to his responses.
Now currently he reads to me as matching his normal Town Play, flaily as it is, and so I'd rather lynch an inactive than someone I suspect to be town who did, at least, try. Hence Cakestepid being my current target.
I disagree with nictis saying I haven't done anything to prove myself as town or defend myself. I did my arguments, focused on a more suspicious individaul, gave some information on my name, and suchlike.
And why shouldn't I constantly ask people to change their votes? it works, and not getting lynched is my biggest priority right now, since 100% of a town getting lynched if I get lynched, and a lower chance if someone else gets lynched because <100% town chance is >0 chance of hitting scum.
As far as me flailing about (in response to Terra mentioning as I write this), I feel as though I have done a vastly better job at defending myself that previous times, since no one has been like "you know what? rikimaru's arguments for ellf lynch look really scummy."
As far as me flailing about (in response to Terra mentioning as I write this), I feel as though I have done a vastly better job at defending myself that previous times, since no one has been like "you know what? rikimaru's arguments for ellf lynch look really scummy."
I mean, maybe it's more competent flailing, but it's still flailing. Your defenses and so on have been fairly random in nature, and you yourself admitted...
Damn it, I made illogical statements as town again, sorry for making myself appear more scummy, I accept that there are reasons to lynch me because I haven't been doing particularly good arguing. Okay, let's not lynch the cat, but as for other targets, as usual I don't have a different person to really focus on.
Sorry if this is late, been busy. Just caught up with everything and have to sorta go with the wagon here in that cakes been pretty inactive and as far as I've garnered not a newbie.
[X] Null
[X] Lynch Cakestepid
I will openly say I still have some sus on Riki and both towards Broken and Tessa, however given we've only been poking through straws I can't see anything superconcrete. Winged Cat is also still on my sus list for the easy willingness to give up information so early.
Then I agree with it as an issue, in part because (though I didn't think to explicitly articulate it at the time), wagons launching that high that fast on no hard evidence is, in my experience, a soft sign the player is town. Scum don't want to jump on their allies wagons.
That was basically my thinkings at the time too, just for the record- it's why I mention it multiple times and then contrast it with the lag on the Riki wagon later. Scum love town wagons and love to give them momentum as quickly as possible, and as he said, they typically don't like joining buddy wagons that much, for obvious reasons. The Riki wagon was fine... more or less, it did spike in speed but that was corrolated with us starting to run out of time, so it's not really a huge tell about possible/probable scum influence.
I think one thing I'm going to do, especially if we get a Riki flip, is look at both the Riki and Winged Cat wagon, and do deep dives on everyone that was on both of them. I'm 100% sure there's scum there. If Riki's scum... I'll have to recalibrate.
Also overall Riki has been flailing, I suppose, but it's the kind of flailing that I like, if it make sense. It definitely feels like he wants to stay alive, but his continual efforts to try and push votes away from him in an actually productive way, well... after the first couple posts... feels like town frustration and panic rather than scum just not knowing what to do; he isn't really throwing suspicion mindlessly this way or that, and he also hasn't immediately full-claimed even as the hammer comes cloes to coming down, which is a massive point in his favor.
I will openly say I still have some sus on Riki and both towards Broken and Tessa, however given we've only been poking through straws I can't see anything superconcrete. Winged Cat is also still on my sus list for the easy willingness to give up information so early.
Rather curious as to your logic as to why myself and Broken Base would be scummy. Riki, I get, for I hope obvious reasons, but given I've been spearheading voting efforts, while I could see concern I might be trying to lead town around as scum, I'm certainly not seeing why you'd rate me as likely to be scum.
Broken Base is one of my more solid town reads, as well.
In games like Town of Salem and to a much less extend some Gmod games I tend to suspect the major leaders of the group until they can proven to be trusted, at this point since we're really just scum hunting based on opinions, reactions, inactivity, or other strands of chance, its quite possible for someone leading a hunt to simply be looking for an easy target to get the town to lynch to possibly get a informative. Happens often in ToS day 2, where someone will start a random witch hunt for a Mafia or otherwise hoping to get lucky on a lynch against someone who can't provide a credible defense, which at this stage in the game, I want to say no one really can provide without giving up really sensitive information and risk dying just as easily the following night. It might be me but I've found day 1 to be very hectic and its hard to judge at this stage. I'll probably be more comfterable after this day in providing some more tactile responses and such. TBH you haven't done anything really scummy, its just your one of the leading voices, if you never suspect your leaders of anything until proven to have a spotless record then your gouging out your own eyes.
Actually since Terra was nice enough to give a give a read of me I'll reciprocate: My read of Terra is... complicated. He was low key early on, though he did have a reason. So that was... understandable but a bit off for him. Even during the Winged Cat lynch, he felt a little... floaty. Not as bad as the beginning of the game, but to an extent. He then picked up his normal pace more or less though, and I think has done some really strong work since we started pressuring Riki. The only reason I'm more tentatively town rather than solidly town is those factors and I'm not entirely sure how I feel about how we keep working in concert like this- it could just be coincidence, it could be Terra tying himself to me in case he goes down (though I would think he'd tie himself to a bigger threat to the scum), it could also be Terra kind of getting on my good side, as it were.
Like Terra has some really solid townplay overall and I want a pretty solid townread... but I just can't yet. It's only Day 1 anyway, we'll see how future days go. (I might toss out some other reads later- Last Wills and Testaments and casual advice to any investigative roles if nothing else)
The only reason I'm more tentatively town rather than solidly town is those factors and I'm not entirely sure how I feel about how we keep working in concert like this- it could just be coincidence, it could be Terra tying himself to me in case he goes down (though I would think he'd tie himself to a bigger threat to the scum), it could also be Terra kind of getting on my good side, as it were.
TBH I'm annoyed to keep agreeing with you to the extent that it does tie us together. I'm concerned that'll get used by scum (possibly you, if you are actually scum) to drag one or both of us down or discredit us.
But lying is worse so I'm stuck honestly agreeing with you when you say things I agree with, soo. *shrug*
