Okay... this is the point where I need to bring up a Major Salient Fact - our primary objective here.
Our *primary* objective at this Winter court - the entire reason we're here - is to try to keep relations with the Matsu from decaying so far that they close Beiden Pass. That's *hugely* important for the health and well-being of the Scorpion Clan as a whole. Having the Matsu decide to come storming across the pass at us would be even worse.
Hm... maybe we should try and consider how the other clans and their possible interests might figure into this? See what sort of problems we might face in that regard, and who might be helpful to have on our side in dealing with them?
Giving it another try to analyze the situation, though somewhat disordered:
- The Crab definitely want the Pass to be open due to its importance in their own trade, so we shouldn't really have to do anything here. However, it's rather clear that they're not really all that happy with the Lion, from their reaction to our gift, and possibly their own gift as well (depending on how we interpret it). So, it might be a good chance to ingratiate ourselves with them anyway; either simply for the future, to keep relations between our clans good, or in order to help us in dealing with someone else at the court.
- The Phoenix seems to genuinely want to get everyone along, which should translate into the Pass being open to allow for trade, diplomatic exchange, and so on. However, she seemed rather concerned about our gift, possibly due to misinterpreting it. Depending on her own analysis of the situation, and possibly nudging from someone else, she might come to the conclusion that it would be best for the Pass to be closed for a while, in order to cut off some Scorpion-plot that might otherwise cause strife, at least in her mind. It would probably be a good idea to try and build a good relation with her, if only to alleviate her concerns.
- The Dragon... I'm somewhat unsure about. On one hand, the picture (which he painted himself) might appear as a subtle insult to the Lion; the Lioness jumps recklessly and is going to be killed or heavily injured by her targets for it.
However, he *did* go and paint those Ronin she targets in the colours associated with the Scorpion clan. In a way this might also be an insult aimed at us through the implied lack of honour (if they're meant to be bandits) or destitution (due to their disheveled appearance). On the other hand, it might also be meant as some sort of subtle warning for the Lion, that we might pose some danger to them if they act recklessly against us, no matter how weak/disheveled we might appear as.
Considering how he wasn't mentioned reacting particularly strongly - whether good or bad - to our own gift and its hidden messages, I think that it would be a good idea to keep an eye on him and perhaps try to find out more.
- The Crane obviously dislikes the Lion, a LOT (to say the least), while we already made a favorable impression; both with our gift, and with our meeting with Chen. However, it is quite possible, in my opinion, that they might have a strong interest in seeing the Beiden Pass closed, because doing so would hurt the Lion, however indirectly, through the lack of trade. It might not be their main objective, but something they wouldn't mind accomplishing. As such, they might very well end up opposing us even if they like us personally. In that regard, it might be a good idea to figure out everything about what they want/need, and see if perhaps we can offer them something that is worth more to them than seeing Beiden Pass closed and the Lion thus hurt.
- The Unicorn wants something from the Lion, given how, as Sirrocco pointed out, them giving horses - or the opportunity to earn horses - is a Really Big Thing(tm) from them. Influence on the daimyo's sons is one obvious benefit, but there might also be other things that they wish to accomplish, here.
In regards to the Pass, they control the western pass through the mountains, according to the map I found, so whether or not Beiden Pass is open is probably of no real consequence to them in terms of travel or trade, meaning they'll go with whatever they think will help their goals more. As such, they're probably a neutral actor in that regard, and could be swayed in either direction depending on their further purpose(s) at this court, and how someone might be able to help them accomplish it.
- The Mantis and/or Wasp like neither the Lion, nor us. As such, it is quite likely, in my opinion, that seeing Beiden Pass closed is one of their possible goals at this court, as it would harm both the Lion and the Scorpion; definitely a win-win in their books. And as an added bonus, with the most convenient land route closed, some clans or merchants might decide to transport their goods via the sea, which the Mantis would gain from.
As such, it's quite possible that they're going to be one of our main antagonists/opponents at this court, and it might be a very good idea to try and keep an eye on who they meet with, and what they talk about.
- The Otome basically just cares about getting his bloody job done, but he also seemed to like us and our gift's hidden messages. I don't think he'll really weigh in on whether Beiden Pass should be open/closed, unless someone convinces him that doing either will make his job vastly easier/harder. However, as Sirrocco stated, he can apparently really ruin people's year. So, it's definitely in our best interest to make sure we stay on his good side, and try to maneuver potential opponents so that they'll end up in his crosshairs while he's in a foul mood.
What do you guys think? Any things I'm likely to have missed or misinterpreted? Maybe any guesses for why a particular delegation might be here?