Follow me for a while down into the magical world called
The Past
There might be a thing or t
wo that could change your mind. Actions taking place in
The Past are commented by yours' truly.
Disclaimer: Contains heavy amount of sarcasm. Any sarcasm you find that isn't properly duty paid has to be reported to your nearest customs.
D1:
Okay, first thing, we got "all potential roles for town" and "the mafia's abilities." Based on Nictis' response above, I assume that the mafia has all of these, and knows exactly what town has in play. This, at a glance, honestly makes me think town's just kind of fucked, but it's possible that scum's actually a lot weaker than the list suggests at a glance. (If, say, killing+arson aren't compatible, that halves the effective speed with which mafia wins) OTOH, I don't think town has any possible way of confirming a lot of this.
So, this is a bit of a mess. We don't know if abilities are all distributed with each mafia getting one (or all?!) actions each night, or mafia is like an arsonist, a dual rolecop/block and a lawyer. Mafia also is loaded on powers to nullify anything town does. The fools potentially number equal to the mafia, each of our investigative roles has a clear failure condition or two, and mafia knows *exactly* which ones are unprovable to claim at any given moment, and that's not considering that each of them has a drawback.
In the worst case, mafia more or less wins D3 presuming dousing doubles their rate of kills.
We know, ostensibly, that everything that anyone does has some kind of hidden drawback (though wtf is a hidden drawback on a fool whose 'power' seems to be a straight up disadvantage to their faction in the first place?) It's likely that what we don't see here is quite good for town on the whole.
So, basically, in the worst case for town, none of our powers actually work with anything resembling reliability, scum has near impunity on fakeclaims and scum has a horrific rate of murder, while also being able to kill twice as fast as a normal scum team.
Starting the game with a bit of scaring town, lowering morale. Fear the allmighty scum. Don't dare to think that scum might have any worthwhile drawbacks.
This seems like some extremely dubious speculation, and I'm not sure what purpose it's purported to serve.
[X] Vote Shadell
[x] vote InterstellarHobo
Pushing down on an early attempt to get talk on the game strikes me as suspect.
@Scia how do you feel about IH's post responding to me.
Can't speak for Scia, but I agree that objecting to game analysis is odd. That said, this is Day One and 90% of everything that happens D1 is for giggles, so I haven't voted for anyone based on actual suspicions. Might vote someone for a meme later, idk.
IH voicing doubt about the analysis. OMGUS vote.
Gets rather weakened by Lost immediately.
We need something to start actual discussion or nothing happens, and a lot of set-up speculation is bad because scum intrinsically starts knowing more. A semi-open set-up actually weakens a lot of that argument.
I'll admit, I'm more suspect of Deviljho's reaction than yours atm.
That's a curious one. Lost shooting down Shadell's early train and gets side-eyed for that. That's the start on the Lost lynch btw.
Let's get some more positions marked out to start building.
ATM, I'm suspect on IH for the negative reaction to me earlier (though very slight here, since the sell on that tracks), Deviljho for being noncommital and enthusiastic and Meso for being Meso.
@ondine @Young Pyromancer @Cyricubed @Totadileplayz @Tykan @mesonoxian Between IH, Deviljho and Meso, who'd you vote if you had a gun to your head right now and why?
Shadell is doing a lot to direct people to particular votes in a way that feels very aggressive. Asking people to choose between three people to justify a vote, while not quite telling them to vote for one of those people is still pretty powerful suggestion, especially against new players.
Nuff said.
I don't get the Shadell suspicion. And it rubs me the wrong way. I also don't like Cyri's response to Shadell's question. Refusal to actually give a read and then saying no kill me? Feels like a very wolfy thing to do. Tell them you're not afraid to die at all! As though you can put off suspicion by being overly relaxed with the idea.
[X] vote Cyricubed
First jump to defend Shadell. Immediately jumping on the one who attacked her.
No real bandwagon means no real pressure, means no real good choices.
I'm suspect of how quickly Deviljho built votes, but Deviljho is also a vet and was doing things that read as pretty suspicious (bleeding info, sheeping) so I don't think it's that strange.
People can jump on me for early doom and glooming, but the point was to get us out of memes quickly given the short day, and I think that mostly worked, for all we're missing the hyperactive posters that can drive a thread, and I think the actual scum play there would be to try to lay low while letting memes extend.
Swarmingu, Totodile and Young Pyromancer have all set off a few red flags for me as well, but a lot of that can be covered under being new.
So, let's start kicking up rocks?
@QTesseract is a very good player, and a good scum player whose been pretty quiet. This isn't out of character, but I think we have time to throw a bit of pressure before settling on a mark, and this strikes me as probably the best stone to overturn for building up knowledge to work from later.
[x] Vote QTesseract
Inactivity vote. Mind it's only a push at first.
But here we have an interesting point. Those three newbs have all set off red falgs, they all raise suspicion. Do we ever hear what's that suspicion in particular? Nope. Easy shading for easy towncred and deflecting.
I'm down with a little pressure,
@Shadell.
[x] vote Qtesseract
Give us all your lunch money!
I mean tell us your secrets. Shadell is right you are quiet.
Pressure vote #1, pressure vote is good.
Explicit cooperating with Shadell. Shaky, I admit. But it's a trend that continues.
It's pretty tenuous to suggest anyone pointing out that scum has counterintelligence powers is really a masterplan to demotivate town PRs from revealing when needed. Like, D1 has been a sea of pointless info-bleed, we hardly need to convince the players to be more forthcoming here.
In terms of townreads, I think ondine is pretty clear here for the moment, in terms of actually taking actions on her own initiative that benefit town. Obviously that's not deterministic, but it's a lot less cause to vote ondine than anyone else. QT can be quiet at times, so not sure there.
I stated suspicion on Lost, you voted Lost, Ondine voted lost, QT stated suspicions of Lost. That's a quarter of the thread very quickly.
More notably, ondine is the one who first pointed this out.
Throwing in the first ondine townread. For basically existing. Wait no, she pointed out a weak as f push. And joing the pressure vote on QTess.
I literally just inserted a tally with the right votes. Devil does have two votes. And this is super weird and manipulative and thanks for giving me a real suspicion on D1. Wow.
[X] vote Interstellarhobo
Switching from QTess to Hobo. Not much to see here but I don't want to be blamed of leaving out info. Note: Ondine is terribly quick to jump at someone's throat.
The case against me boils down to "I made stuff happen D1" and then hitting me for stuff that literally others had already suggested. This is incredibly tortured logic, and it's frankly making me double back on those who built it. I don't think IH would stay so consistently on target as scum, so, looking at the other players, I think Young Pyromaniac is mostly retaliating after being called mildly scum, which is bad play, but happens
Meso sided with me as agreeing with my initial reactions:
(What Meso said, I'm too tired to throw those quotes in)
Meso 1: "It was pretty much my reaction to the role list as well. As for what purpose it serves, I'd rather have on topic speculation than the usual day one listlessness. "
Meso 2: "Shadell is doing a lot to direct people to particular votes in a way that feels very aggressive. Asking people to choose between three people to justify a vote, while not quite telling them to vote for one of those people is still pretty powerful suggestion, especially against new players."
I don't like the flip, particularly when this is a pretty tortured characterization of what I wrote.
However, self-preservation dictates:
[x] Vote InterstellarHobo
This is mostly the whole case on Meso. A "flip" that's way out of context. The first one is him talking about Shadell's setup spec early on.
The second one is about her pushing three people into the limelight for D1 action and him questioning it.
What's the connection between those two posts beats me.
You're right. My apologies. I read the line about the accident as being an accident about the tally itself not which post it was in. And the cavalier way you said you'd make it work (while totally fine in the context you meant it) really seemed to be manipulating what people saw as what the tally actually was
[x] null
I see what you pointed out there @Shadell re the meso flip flop and for fear of seeming sheepy I'm actually alright with that vote. I like it more than this devil vote for sure, or the vote I started on IH.. sorry dude.
[x] vote mesonoxian
Switching from IH to Meso, sheeping Shadell.
Actually wait a hot minute. QT is still not voting. And he knows better. I said I would be down for a policy lynch. And I am.
[x] vote QTesseract
You've been around since I asked you to vote. You have no excuse except that you don't want to contribute your opinion for posterity.
Back to pressure vote. Still doesn't seem to disturb Shadell.
Rather, regardless of how QT flips, we won't learn much or have much to go on in terms of other reads. I'd be down for it on D2+, but also, there's no real time to respond, and "I had a very bad week" is, like, a very reasonable reason not to post much.
Was good D1 but isn't anymore D3. Well, that's a change of mind.
D2:
I'm not super confident in this game, particularly in a very high power set-up, where the cop's playing with some unknown drawback if there even is a cop, but I'm willing to play along. I peaked at ondine who I can confirm is town.
Look at how towny Ondine is.
This is a decent point actually if a bit of a stretch for me. Problem is I actually used shadell's post as my point there thinking QT actually had made a post of such. However this has an inherent issue with it and that's thinking QT wouldn't have pointed that out to shadell thus prompting me not to make the same exact mistake? I'm 2 games rusty yes but I'm not that incompetent to make that kind of mistake after someone else already did. You did however make me re-evaluate my read of Shadell so good catch regardless.
@Shadell any explanation for the above?
why would I need to explain the thing that is perfectly innocuous from me (inactivity lunches d1 are bad, people are very often inactive for good reason) but that you seemed to be making from privileged information?
That's the point where I thought of Cyri scumslipping with the QTess stuff.
Note that she's avoiding to answer
Deflecting hard on Tykan's point to killing someone else for it, while also offering a massive wall of, mostly extremely weak arguments targeting 1, a known decent strategy as somehow super pro-scum, and 2, the only players I know are scum. I dislike this intensely.
[x] vote Cyricubed
PSA:
Wall post are a subject of discussion. Some people say they are scummy, some say they aren't. I'm obviously in the latter category. They help to bring across information in a trailable way. While they can be used to drown readers with info and can be used to sell certain narratives, they are the best way to show a player's behaviour along the game. Additionally arguments of such a post CAN be singled out and discussed.
In my experience it's more often than not scum that decide to completely ignore such posts instead of going into detail. They tend to avoid discussion arguements and go with easy deflections.
It's not really deflecting. It's pointing out a counter argument. And this greatly sounds like your now defending Ondine and just skipped over the fact that he has repeatedly sheeped your pushes with totadile sheeping Ondine. It's a pattern and a consistant one throughout day 2 up until Ondine votes for QT on "Policy" for not voting. That's not a policy lynch, that's something else completely.
You say it's extremely weak arguments? Please explain how. You say it's super pro-scum? Really? Is it because I strongly doubt that given that it's a neutral strategy. To point: Terra's done it as town, I've done it as town, Nict has done it as town. When your pretty sure you see scum you go for it. You don't sit on your butt twiddling your thumbs otherwise town atrophies.
Don't give me some half-assed accusation of I'm deflecting, my arguments are weak, and super scummy without putting forth any effort to explain why or how. That is scummy.
More or less the same I just said in other words. Plus Shadell heavily scumreading Cyri for scumreading Ondine.
Note that he's right. Neither Shadell nor Ondine have ever interacted with Cyri's wallpost at all. All we got were cheap deflection and him leaving shortly after.
If you'd read the article you would know you need two nights in a 9 player game to be 100% mechanically cleared. So at 12 we need 3? And yes I know a roleblocker and lawyer are possible, but they aren't going to be everywhere at once. And we aren't just talking about a cop here. We have tons of other roles that can clear in other ways too. This is going to be a mech heavy solve I think by the virtue of the fact that there's a lot to solve with.
The arguments here are hilariously overreaching and honestly boil down to --you're trying too hard to help town, you can't be town. I'll respond to your wallpost as soon as I can get on my computer, but my God. I would try another target today Cyricubed. I am going to tell you right now that I can and will claim and you will be forced to back off, but for town's sake I was hoping to wait.
Yeah, we have lots of PRs and most of them have drawbacks or hardcounters. Sooo, I rather see the game as a heavy social one.
Mental Note: Hasn't claimed yet.
Never responded to said post. While it's true that Cyri left shortly after, that's still not a good look.
Fuck it. I was attacked last night and healed. That's my claim. I'm fucking town and I'm exhausted. And I feel like shit and I really was looking forward to this game. And it's mech heavy and I like puzzles and you should use mech to solve a mech heavy game. That's part of the fun. And I don't know what else to say. If you're the doc who healed me, don't say anything, you're super important, don't out yourself.
Here we have the claim. Not the role claim but the NK claim. There wasn't a way to post that claim earlier? Like at day start? Only 12 hours and 7 posts later? I mean that's very important information for town. Why did you withhold it?
Are you saying you tracked Shadell to me?
Checking if they stumbled across the Tracker or a second watcher. (Looks kinda good for Scia)
I'm the doctor. There is very little point hiding this now, since you've 100% confirmed this to scum already, thanks.
Of course, if scum were to check my role last night (this would make sense, I was a prominent player with game experience, but pretty in the middle of the suspicion list, as intended D1) and there's only 1 doctor, they'd be able to know that they have a pretty good shot at A: Building towncred for IH on claiming tracker and B: getting town to vote the doctor, which is a double win for scum, since self-protecting and wine would make hitting me hard.
I cleared ondine earlier because, later dying after clearing ondine the day there was no deaths, it would be relatively obvious why I went along with a plan I said I didn't like much in the same post and cleared ondine, at least to ondine who'd hopefully know she'd been saved, but wouldn't really stand out in the moment.
Anyway, I'm relatively confident I can't get killed directly by mafia, but this compromises my ability to save others a good deal (douse>ignite ignores the doc's powers here; which is why I was so apocalyptic on that earlier, since scum should know it's effectively a strong-man wrt the Doctor's powers).
Something worth noting: scum was unlikely to kill a new player N1, QT, IH and I had had decent momentum to make us solid cover for scum. That left, essentially, 4 likely targets for protecitng. Ondine was the towniest D1, which made her the obvious kill target, which suggests that scum thought things through to some extent, but didn't go much deeper. Tykan and Cyri were also likely pretty good marks, and I skipped over them pretty evenly. Cyri's ragequit screams town to me, which leaves it very likely in my mind that either Tykan or Meso are scum, since that would significantly increase the success of my read on scum targetting ondine (in practice, Tykan would have been the less obvious protect target I think, which'd have been my actual pick for a kill as scum).
Since I've already decided to make arbitrarily scumreading Meso a running bit this game (initially because a single essentially unsupported read I'd refuse to abandon would be both in character and mildly scummy without putting me right on the chopping block).
[x] Vote Mesonoxian
Doc claim
Votintg Meso for ... criticizing her pushing the three people question IIRC.
Starts to throw shade at Meso and me.
Have you ever heard the tale of town Ondine the Wise?
Yeah. It is suboptimal. And from where I'm sitting there was no way to prove Shadell was scum from what IH did anyway. He could have said I tracked someone to ondine. Do they want to out themselves? Then maybe we get a fake claim. Maybe we don't. IH gave Shadell no choice but to say they were the doctor.... But also the perfect chance to clear herself. This just definitely outed the doctor for good this way and didn't force the mafia to necessarily do anything.
If there is a doctor out there who healed me and knows Shadell is lying you should speak up.
For now though I think.
[X] vote Interstellarhobo
While it's true IH could have handled the reveal a bit better, here we have Ondine preparing to townclear Shadell.
There exists a rolecop.
And IH did the very odd thing of asking if I had GM confirmation? Huh why? Seems pretty obvious I would unless I was totally lying.
Yeah, ok, doubting IH is fine, doubting Shadell isn't. What sense does it make as scum to out a doc if you can kill them quietly?
Shadell has come out as the doctor who healed me and no one has Counter claimed. She is town.
DOUBT
One more quick thought before I get ready for work.
I expect the scum will have their lawyer on Shadell tonight unless they are going to attempt a nightkill. So Cop results from them tonight are probably compromised.
Huh. Those are linked? News to me.
[X] vote mesonoxian
If it looks like a scum slip and sounds like a scum slip...
Comment is linked to the bold part. That's a cheap attack, trying to killing Meso for nothing. Guess what, there will be another one later on.
I'm confused..what do you mean?
Looks good for Scia part 2.
Stop putting so much expectation on me guys. What am I supposed to do, use oracle bones?
For real though, I'm sure there is at least one scum among the silent group and another one pretending with a townie role, simply because tradition.
And the third? Is it you? Is that the position you're speaking from?
Swarmingu going with the textbook example of a scum guess.
That's somewhat enough for almost a jump.
@Shadell did you get a GM confirmation that your target got healed/ your heal got triggered? I know that can depend on the GM as well but would still be helpful.
Since Meso asked for it earlier, here is Shadell hard-linking herself to Ondine.
Blergh. Ok.
[X] vote Qtesseract
I'm not opposed to this. He's done nothing this day that would make me feel any differently than I did day1
Look, inactivity vote the second. Still no comment by Shadell.
D3:
I was rollblocked, attempted to protect Tykan.
Nice of you if it were true but doubt.
[x] Vote Mesonoxian
Still feeling pretty good on this one.
Still for an arbitrary read you never really pushed yourself any further.
I don't think Cyri is cleared at all and his ragequit felt more like a petulant, if you're not doing it my way then I won't do it at all. Totally matches with scum especially if he was worried the cop cover thing might save too much info and make the game mech solvey and therefore easier for town. Aka no matter how well mafia plays they might still.be mech cleared.
That said I agree with your assessment of meso. He's also been incredibly agreeable. It's a thing I believe he does as scum--tries to be so chill and agreeable. He also doesn't have to fake up some rage for being suspected when he is suspicious.
I would like to hear from Z first though.
@Zaealix it's your time to shine my man. Come and drop some knowledge on us.
Meso's almost always agreeable and nice in game. He mostly gets aggressive when you push him hard as scum. Trust me on this one
I'm essentially mechanically cleared. So you can stop worrying about me at least. And Shadell as well. So I would try to look in other places.
I'd love to hear from you about your hammer vote
@Swarmingu
Easy deflection.
What are you actually saying here? Are you suspecting Shadell and I who have been mech cleared? You didn't actually have any.. like actual solving here. You just listed events. It's something you see scum doing sometimes because they can't figure out how to "solve" when they know the answer already.
Where has totodile been suspicious of this? Receiptsss please.
[X] vote Zaealix
Exactly next post. Have I ever told you, Shadell and me are mech cleared?
Shadell and I are mech cleared and until I hear a CC I'm not discussing it again.
The post Z linked of Totos only puts him in a good light. He assumes nothing, works through the logic and comes to a rational answer. I would consider him safely town. Scia I believe is as well based on her logical attempts to solve.
So we have
Meso
Tykan
Z
Swarm
Young Pyro
3 of them are scum.
In terms of who I find most suspicious I would put my bets on meso, Z and Young Pyro.
Also, it's currently 6-3. If we kill a town tomorrow will be 4-3 or even possibly if there's arson we just lose. Now is the time to claim y'all. Any real info you know and your roll, I think. Thoughts
@Shadell ?
I want to hear from meso, Z and Young Pyro first, personally. I'm very curious to hear their claims.
How could I ever get the feeling that you want to make a point about someone being mech cleared.
Setting up a potential mislynch?
And if there even is a tomorrow.
Scaring everybody so they don't try to do something stupid like testing your claim. Sheep me and kill those evil vets.
We have at most one more mistake we can make before we lose the game. Possibly zero. So we need to kill mafia now.
Weakened version of above.
Where, yeah, they seem kind of away from reality - scum doesn't have drawbackless kill+arson every night, that just doesn't work - but they acknowledge that their proposed wore case scenario has town kinda fucked, and I don't think any of the followup discussion of their position really changes my position on it.
What do you mean? We know how many scum there are. I don't think they could be dousing and killing on the same nights so we definitely have another day. Or rather if they are able to kill and douse simultaneously, we're already doomed.
This is what TMI looks like to me.
Why wouldn't mafia have a faction kill as well as an arsonist? We don't know the combination of roles for each mafioso..unless we do.
I did promise you a second cheap jump on Meso earlier, didn't I? That one is especially cheap since it was already mentioned earlier. And look, it's from a vet and now confirmed town player. That one didn't get any flak... Strange.
Tykan will remember this.
I will. But I'm going to do it last because I'm already cleared and I might catch someone in a lie.
A) How do you want to catch someone in a lie if scum knows which roles are in play and can assume the rest? I mean I've shown with my claim how easy it is to more or less claim anything.
B) Anyone haven't heard that Ondine is mech cleared?
It's not D1. We have our backs against the wall. I would rather hear from Tykan and Swarm and Zaealix first though.
Scare. And keeping the luxurious position of last one to claim for added security.
And let
@Scia wait. She may be trying to see what people claim and catch someone out.
Let everyone make an initial claim.
That's something I can live with. Where's your claim Ondine?
Present Day (Boring):
Sooooooo, that's my little narrated recap. I'm sorry I can't give you a tldr and a bit more of a structured argument. I have to run since I'm meeting with a few friends and won't be writing anymore today. So please avoid hammering me till tomorrow? Pretty please?
I'll try to work on the more conclussive narrative tomorrow but this may give the one or other something to think or discuss about for starters.
I'd be especially delighted if Shadell and/or Ondine interact with this or if even someone makes something similiar about me. Give me some of your questions and reactions.
Fake-PS:
But seriously simply how Tykan did his claim. Makes me think, yeah I should definitely vote for him.
[X]Vote Tykan
That's what you get if you use too much sarcasm and cynicism...