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CHESS MAFIA 2

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Nictis said:
It's what I took particular note of. Your reasons did not align with my or Rosen's reasons and I was already suspecting you, so it reeked of you trying to equate yourself with people who were being widely townread. I'd have to go back and check if your reasons aligned with Shalmoa and QT, but it stood out a lot less in comparison to theirs by memory.
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I don't really agree that you or Rosen were being widely townread. Most people's comments on your slot yesterday were along the lines of "neutral" or "I can't get a read on them," I'm not sure who would have been townreading you. I was townreading Rosen very strongly, true, but I don't really think anyone else mentioned doing so, I wouldn't have called him consensus townie at the time. And if I was scum, then the fact that I said I was townreading him would be irrelevant, because I would have known he was scum.

@mesonoxian @Shadell what are your thoughts on this?

Sorry, I was planning on doing an analysis of why the people voted the way they did, and never got around to it b/c I've been a bit busier this Game Day than last. I was having a bit of trouble with it too b/c, I think it's all slightly sus for different reasons?
 
hailcapital said:
Technically speaking they could have shot a knight who chose to redirect it at Usili. This seems like an edge case though, and I don't really think we should have played around it.
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Scum would know if that was the case, since they know the actual target, and then Usili speaking up would have revealed that the target wasn't the one hit. So I guess it's a question of would it benefit us to know that? Town having more info than scum seems good to me, but it's also exposing someone a little?

(It would also be a chance for someone on scum to try and claim knight and get a little towncred for that, but that seems like a vulnerable play prone to counter claims.)
 
NemoMarx said:
Scum would know if that was the case, since they know the actual target, and then Usili speaking up would have revealed that the target wasn't the one hit. So I guess it's a question of would it benefit us to know that? Town having more info than scum seems good to me, but it's also exposing someone a little?
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Yeah, my point was that this is the only information that Usili speaking up gives scum- it distinguishes for them between "our target was a rook" and "our target was a knight who redirected to a rook."
 
Okay yeah that makes sense. I don't think it's a scummy play from usili though, just potentially a misplay that's worked to give us a good sense of the night.
 
NemoMarx said:
Okay yeah that makes sense. I don't think it's a scummy play from usili though, just potentially a misplay that's worked to give us a good sense of the night.
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IMO Usili is now basically locked clear. The only worlds where this makes sense as a scum play is if 99L is scum and the nightkill was actually stopped by the roleblock, which as was pointed out earlier would be an incredibly risky play that links two of three remaining scum after already being down one, or if we actually have a scum Queen and Rosen was the factionkill getting deflected, which seems very unlikely at this point.

I think what happened last night is basically NAI on 99L, though.
 
Nictis said:
I guess there's just no reason to ever be quiet about getting attacked now.
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There is, but only if you expect it was deflected or a town kill, like if you're attacked in the night and someone else flips with the scum flavor.
hailcapital said:
IMO Usili is now basically locked clear. The only worlds where this makes sense as a scum play is if 99L is scum and the nightkill was actually stopped by the roleblock, which as was pointed out earlier would be an incredibly risky play that links two of three remaining scum after already being down one, or if we actually have a scum Queen and Rosen was the factionkill getting deflected, which seems very unlikely at this point.

I think what happened last night is basically NAI on 99L, though.
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Yeah, I'll revisit it if a town vig claims that kill or 99 flips scum, but as is I feel fine with town!usili.
 
I did, admittedly, say that the read seemed potentially reasonable, but I didn't really commit.

I keep finding Day 1 wagons not very convincing and failing to vote for them. I'm 3 for 3 on that. Which... I guess they rarely are convincing, since there's not a ton of info first day, but it's not the best...
 
theajl said:
Alright, so. I'm somewhat hamstrung here my total newbie status meaning I have zero insight into the SV meta and no experience with the forum Mafia playstyle - I can gutread nearly as well in ToS as I can face-to-face because I'm very familiar with it, but here I'm rather more limited. Especially since gutread is what generally wins me games. And I'm fairly rusty besides, being brutally honest.
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Well, this is definitely a pretty decent looking effort post for a complete newbie. Welcome.
NemoMarx said:
(It would also be a chance for someone on scum to try and claim knight and get a little towncred for that, but that seems like a vulnerable play prone to counter claims.)
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I really doubt there's any towncred to be had there, since that would (as far as I can tell) pointlessly reveal the position of a knight and doesn't really clarify the night actions at all, because as I understand knights don't know any of the actions they redirect, so it wouldn't even help us determine if the knight was the primary target or just coincidentally happened to be pointing at the same place.

Re-reading at the moment to try and piece together my thoughts, but vaguely thinking something in the hail/Zaea/99L range right now. Should have more time going forward from here on out, but need to catch up some too.
 
Shalmoa said:
Well, this is definitely a pretty decent looking effort post for a complete newbie. Welcome.

I really doubt there's any towncred to be had there, since that would (as far as I can tell) pointlessly reveal the position of a knight and doesn't really clarify the night actions at all, because as I understand knights don't know any of the actions they redirect, so it wouldn't even help us determine if the knight was the primary target or just coincidentally happened to be pointing at the same place.

Re-reading at the moment to try and piece together my thoughts, but vaguely thinking something in the hail/Zaea/99L range right now. Should have more time going forward from here on out, but need to catch up some too.
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Hail and Zaealix I can see, but why 99?

I am personally leaning towards hail or Shadell.
 
I can definitely see scum-hail, but atm, they've been making fairly towny moves D2 in ways that have advanced gamestate, as have I. My gut would be to push somewhere else.

I'm sus on Nictis atm, but that's a lot of IRL stuff as well, so not voting there absent a big shift.

Usili and 99L aren't good marks.

QT jumping to a more active/helpful D2 after -Rosen dies might be picking up the slack for a scumteam that's lost it's leader, otoh, QT's general vibe has been towny today.
 
mesonoxian said:
Hail and Zaealix I can see, but why 99?

I am personally leaning towards hail or Shadell.
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I think that 99L is very unlikely to claim RB'd if he was actually the scum team member who was trying to go for the NK. However, as somebody who has accidentally hard-bussed him in a previous game, I don't really trust him claiming to be RB'd to be particularly alignment indicative otherwise. I don't really see any reason to overlook just how remarkably suspicious his play is personally aside from the kinda bad seeming excuse of "it's always this suspicious". So while there's probably better places to aim, I don't really want to discount him?
 
[X] Vote QTesseract

Actually yeah, I'm not entirely sold, but this feels the best right now. QT's been helpful on mech arguments, and probabilities, but I haven't felt much of a push from them against a player. Rather notably, they had a pretty specific comment suggesting -Rosen scum would mean Zaea scum that seemed to go defensive on D2 instead here. AFAIK, Zae claimed pawn early D1, so this wasn't strictly new info (though Hugh effectively validated the claim, which may explain a shift), but I'm not entirely seeing what feels like a natural evolution in read.
 
[X] vote hailcapital

@hailcapital

My reasoning is as before. It seems like Rosen turned up the heat on Hugh right when hail and Zaea were in trouble. Hail came out of the gate pretty aggressive in response to my suspicions in a way that I feel makes sense for scum who lost their most experienced member unexpectedly at start of day.

I might be wrong but that is the nature of the game. this is my best guess.

My reasons for not voting Shadell boil down to her feeling townier. My only issue with Shadell was that post out of the gate, but I have since decided she was right about the Queen probably being town, and while the bit pointing at Rosen's suspicions does still feel off, it is a pretty minor thing against generally towny play today.

I just never know what to make of Zaealix and Rosen's defense of Z is very much a wine thing.
 
Shadell said:
[X] Vote QTesseract

Actually yeah, I'm not entirely sold, but this feels the best right now. QT's been helpful on mech arguments, and probabilities, but I haven't felt much of a push from them against a player. Rather notably, they had a pretty specific comment suggesting -Rosen scum would mean Zaea scum that seemed to go defensive on D2 instead here. AFAIK, Zae claimed pawn early D1, so this wasn't strictly new info (though Hugh effectively validated the claim, which may explain a shift), but I'm not entirely seeing what feels like a natural evolution in read.
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I had been expecting scum!Zae to be lying about being a pawn, to be honest. When it became clear that they were telling the truth on that score that killed most of my most likely scum!Zae+Scum!-Rosen worlds.
 
hailcapital said:
I don't really agree that you or Rosen were being widely townread. Most people's comments on your slot yesterday were along the lines of "neutral" or "I can't get a read on them," I'm not sure who would have been townreading you. I was townreading Rosen very strongly, true, but I don't really think anyone else mentioned doing so, I wouldn't have called him consensus townie at the time. And if I was scum, then the fact that I said I was townreading him would be irrelevant, because I would have known he was scum.
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Allow me to amend my statement then. People who are generally widely townread.

The main point was that your wagonomics did nothing other than change it so your vote and reasoning was equivalent to Rosen, myself and Shadell/QT, and I found that heavily suspicious because the reasons on the wagon were pretty different, and you just threw it out at EoD without actually looking at the wagon reasoning when you did it.
 
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