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CHESS MAFIA 2

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hailcapital said:
Giving every power role to town N1, for a total of like 6 potential investigative powers, many of which are tracking or watching, whereas their only available night action ends with a corpse seems... really, really weak IMO.
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Well, observation powers are:

Kingx1: Useless in this line-up.
Knightx2: One time, not super likely to be used night 1.
Kingside Bishop: Track 1.
Rookx2: Watch 2

So, 5 meaningful potential investigative powers, of which you're rather likely to see something more like 3 used.
hailcapital said:
He did EOD yesterday.
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Ah, missed that. @Zaealix, you do realize that, uh, being in a chat with a black pawn makes you dramatically more likely to be a white pawn, right?

Like, if white picked 2 pawns, then being in a QT with a confirmed black pawn makes you quite likely to be scum. Also, not sure why you'd claim there publicly except a misguided push for town cred tbh.

On probability's sake, I need to sleep, and I may reconsider in the morning, but this feels like a decent place for early day pressure.

[x] Vote Zaealix
 
Shadell said:
Kingx1: Useless in this line-up.
Knightx2: One time, not super likely to be used night 1.
Kingside Bishop: Track 1.
Rookx2: Watch 2

So, 5 meaningful potential investigative powers, of which you're rather likely to see something more like 3 used.
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Hmmm... I think a town Knight would be likely to use a power N1, since they have 4 1-shot powers and living past N4 is pretty uncertain, and all the powers except the vig refresh if they do die and a town pawn inherits, and also that the investigative powers would be better openers because they're unlikely to have had firm enough reads to use the 1-shot vig.
 
*blinks* Uhh...Wait hang on being with Black makes you likely to be scum? I call shenanigans on that. Even Assuming MAXIMUM SCUM PAWN that means ALL Power Roles are Town, that still has possibility for Black/Black pairings. And given that it's something like...Okay, 3:4 ratio assuming observer is himself a black pawn...It's something to puzzle out, not something assured even in a Maximum scum pawn plan.
...Other reason I'm going to call shenanigans is weren't you just saying something akin to 'the scum pawn's clean?' Pick one, either it's MAXIMUM SCUM PAWN and Town has the power roles, OR it's one, maybe two at the most, and my concerns are unfounded.
 
Zaealix said:
*blinks* Uhh...Wait hang on being with Black makes you likely to be scum? I call shenanigans on that. Even Assuming MAXIMUM SCUM PAWN that means ALL Power Roles are Town, that still has possibility for Black/Black pairings. And given that it's something like...Okay, 3:4 ratio assuming observer is himself a black pawn...It's something to puzzle out, not something assured even in a Maximum scum pawn plan.
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There are 4 white players and 8 pawns.

If scum picked 4 white pawns, then every QT would be 1 scum and one townie as white will always pair with black. If scum picked 2 pawns and 2 PRs, they'd be looking at 50% of QTs being black/white combos. Given that you were in a combination with a player who was guaranteed to be black, that would be a 50% chance of you being scum in a 2 white pawn world.

Given that outing yourself makes you look incredibly suspicious why do it?

QTesseract said:
I think they're just happy to have survived the night.
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That would make sense. Counterpoint, it's Nictis so...
 
Another thing here I want to point out is that @Zaealix actually claimed Pawn at the beginning of Day 1. Claiming Pawn while having someone who you can claim to have been your Pawn partner, Day 1. Usually VTs job is to give PRs cover, to make it harder for the mafia to role-hunt. The only likely benefit here for town!Zaealix that I can see is that the King is dissuaded from checking a town role that his investigative result can't be trusted on, but that's very thin.

If Zaealix is scum though, he could either be a scum PR "switching places" with a scum godfather, trying to dissuade the king from checking him and in the future making us falsely trust a check on that scum godfather, or he could be an actual godfather wining us with respect to the prior scenario.

Maybe I'm tinfoiling here but the scum!Zaealix world seems like it has a plausible reason for it outside of misplay, whereas the town!Zaealix one doesn't.

[X] Vote Zaealix
 
hailcapital said:
Another thing here I want to point out is that @Zaealix actually claimed Pawn at the beginning of Day 1. Claiming Pawn while having someone who you can claim to have been your Pawn partner, Day 1. Usually VTs job is to give PRs cover, to make it harder for the mafia to role-hunt. The only likely benefit here for town!Zaealix that I can see is that the King is dissuaded from checking a town role that his investigative result can't be trusted on, but that's very thin.

If Zaealix is scum though, he could either be a scum PR "switching places" with a scum godfather, trying to dissuade the king from checking him and in the future making us falsely trust a check on that scum godfather, or he could be an actual godfather wining us with respect to the prior scenario.

Maybe I'm tinfoiling here but the scum!Zaealix world seems like it has a plausible reason for it outside of misplay, whereas the town!Zaealix one doesn't.

[X] Vote Zaealix
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Sorry, this should be

[X] Vote Zaealix
 
hailcapital said:
Another thing here I want to point out is that @Zaealix actually claimed Pawn at the beginning of Day 1. Claiming Pawn while having someone who you can claim to have been your Pawn partner, Day 1. Usually VTs job is to give PRs cover, to make it harder for the mafia to role-hunt. The only likely benefit here for town!Zaealix that I can see is that the King is dissuaded from checking a town role that his investigative result can't be trusted on, but that's very thin.

If Zaealix is scum though, he could either be a scum PR "switching places" with a scum godfather, trying to dissuade the king from checking him and in the future making us falsely trust a check on that scum godfather, or he could be an actual godfather wining us with respect to the prior scenario.

Maybe I'm tinfoiling here but the scum!Zaealix world seems like it has a plausible reason for it outside of misplay, whereas the town!Zaealix one doesn't.

[X] Vote Zaealix
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If you're scum, do you think you pick Zae as one of your godfathers or one of your power roles? I'll admit, I'm at least a little suspicious that -Rosen would be willing to do a switcheroo where they take a pawn and pretend to be a scummate + scummate takes PR and rosen claims their actions, and I could also see suspicion for Nictis or I doing it, but I wouldn't expect white pawn Zae.
 
QTesseract said:
If you're scum, do you think you pick Zae as one of your godfathers or one of your power roles? I'll admit, I'm at least a little suspicious that -Rosen would be willing to do a switcheroo where they take a pawn and pretend to be a scummate + scummate takes PR and rosen claims their actions, and I could also see suspicion for Nictis or I doing it, but I wouldn't expect white pawn Zae.
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I don't have the same player specific background here, so I can't really say.
 
hailcapital said:
Maybe I'm tinfoiling here but the scum!Zaealix world seems like it has a plausible reason for it outside of misplay, whereas the town!Zaealix one doesn't.
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I am willing to believe that town!Zaealix is capable of misplaying like this as a standard, unfortunately.
QTesseract said:
If you're scum, do you think you pick Zae as one of your godfathers or one of your power roles? I'll admit, I'm at least a little suspicious that -Rosen would be willing to do a switcheroo where they take a pawn and pretend to be a scummate + scummate takes PR and rosen claims their actions, and I could also see suspicion for Nictis or I doing it, but I wouldn't expect white pawn Zae.
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I personally think that Zaea would have a moderate chance of being slotted into a godfather slot, just because he always comes across as somewhat suspicious overall, but I see what you're saying too. I think that might be a reason to push for any pawn who's partner has not reported by some sufficiently later point in the Day to claim though, because otherwise there's a slim world in which hugh was actually -Rosen's partner and Zaea was never a pawn.
 
hailcapital said:
No it doesn't, since white pawns are guaranteed to be paired with black ones.

But probability discussion here aside, why did you claim?
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...Why? I forget now, but I want to say I recall smelling something odd about that Hugh Lynch. Felt like I didn't have a clear reasoning for that, but then again, D1 Lynch...
I believe I was thinking that by making clear my partner was lynched, it would be clear that...
Good grief. I might be worse then 99L at this game...
Except...
Day 2 starts 10:33 PM, today right?
Shadell said:
Actually, hmm

-Rosen is a scum pawn, does that mean the quick-topic that's now missing one is effectively a cleared player?
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And right away you start talking about cleared pawns. And Hail backs you up...
hailcapital said:
Hmmmm... Scum might not talk into the QT today to create confusion?
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...5 minutes later...
Shadell said:
It's a bad idea, but if white went heavy on pawns, then knowing the QT pairs would actually make a white victory all but impossible, wouldn't it?


Are you claiming Hugh was your partner?
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hailcapital said:
Speaking of, I am not particularly liking that @Zaealix claimed @hugh_donnetono's partner. What was the motivation for doing so @Zaealix?
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And then there's this sequence. Again, VERY close together chronologically...
Maybe I'm just being motivated by the votes thrown my way, but I think I'm starting to smell set-up. That all came together VERY quickly. Too quickly for organic townies, I think. The lack of reliable QT means we can't co-ordinate like that barring some kind of Nictis/Rosen Mutual Soul-read. And Townies aren't necessarily likely to be thinking of the same thing. Maybe I'm underestimating read-speed here, but even if someone were to pipe up about something interesting I'd want to double-check it. And finding that post might take me a bit. If it's a complicated one, that might take longer. Maybe...2-3 minutes if I'm moving quickly, less quick if I'm distracted.
Or am I missing something?
 
Is there a reason you didn't include your post reiterating your claim to having been hugh's partner here? The one you made immediately before @Shadell's post?
 
hailcapital said:
Is there a reason you didn't include your post reiterating your claim to having been hugh's partner here? The one you made immediately before @Shadell's post?
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*blinks* Okay I'm seriously missing something, why would that come up? And for that matter, you&Shadell are the ones talking about white pairs with black-why didn't you, EITHER of you, for that matter, directly quote it?
 
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