Army of Liberty: a Fantasy Revolutionary Warfare Quest

[The Laurent]

Not necessarily. It depends on the exact force strength, plus we have defensible terrain that limits how much of a force the enemy can bring against us (hills can only allow so many units to enter battle). I also don't think "we are either completly fine or completely screwed depending on reinforcements we have no control over" is an accurate assesment or helpful as an argument for either course. Not all of Norn's armies will be sent against us specifically, they presumably have plans to support or prevent the occupation of their ally. Our ability to win locally is influenced by the strength of the last provincial army post battle, with a battered or wounded Trotha, with a greater defeat of him benefiting us and Arné overall by binding more forces.

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Not necessarily? Their entire actual army is coming, and that'll have actual numbers.

Like, it is the actual assessment, you just don't like that that's the reality because it's inconvenient for your argument.

Twenty to forty thousand is what we'll be expecting at the very minimum. If we don't get reinforcements, then there is no way that what we have here will be enough.

Now, we still benefit if we manage a decisive win here... but only if we manage a decisive win, and right now a lot of what I'm hearing from you is sounding a lot like, "The enemy cannot possibly plan to do anything to defeat us, and so aggression, more aggression, and even more aggression will never be punished" and it's frankly terrifying.

E: To be clear, yours isn't the only plan that seems to not think that the enemy has a vote.

 

[Red Rationalist]

ot necessarily? Their entire actual army is coming, and that'll have actual numbers.

Like, it is the actual assessment, you just don't like that that's the reality because it's inconvenient for your argument.

Twenty to forty thousand is what we'll be expecting at the very minimum. If we don't get reinforcements, then there is no way that what we have here will be enough.

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Ok, what are you basing those numbers on? I don't remember specific ones here, and we have little information about their exact allocation to the varying fronts. We don't even know the exact geopolitical position of Norn.

Now, we still benefit if we manage a decisive win here... but only if we manage a decisive win, and right now a lot of what I'm hearing from you is sounding a lot like, "The enemy cannot possibly plan to do anything to defeat us, and so aggression, more aggression, and even more aggression will never be punished" and it's frankly terrifying.

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No, I'm arguing for keeping a forward posture that allows attacks on Trotha if the opportunity presents himself. I am not advocating for any committed attack this turn aside from a specific one we are highly likely to win (routing the 9th Elv Hsr). Please make an informed decision here based on what is specifically being proposed and counterplay options that are being considered, rather than what my arguments sounds like.

I have asked for a credible demonstration of an attack on the center repeatedly. I can't come up with a scenario there and Pinniped hasn't presented a properly mathed one so far. Asking another person to concretely justify their often referenced concerns about an attack on the centre is not blind recklessness, it's an entirely reasonable question for evaluating our course of action. To use an intentionally absurd example, if I raised a concern about the nymphs charging the 45th Elves over 3 turns and us thus having to fall back this turn, would anyone questioning the plausibility of this succeeding be an irrationally aggressive person that doesn't seem room for us failing? Please don't paint me as some caricature based on surface impressions.

 

[The Laurent]

Ok, what are you basing those numbers on? I don't remember specific ones here, and we have little information about their exact allocation to the varying fronts. We don't even know the exact geopolitical position of Norn.

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I'm basing it on the fact that the actual battles of the actual French Revolutionary War tended to include a minimum of twenty or thirty thousand per side per front, and often significantly more than that. The idea that the professional reinforcements that make up Norn's army will conveniently include exactly enough troops that we'll be able to fight them fair and square, one-to-one, if we defeat and capture Von Trotha feels more like wishful thinking or a belief that this would be "mechanically balanced" than anything based in reality.

Of course, I also expect that we'll be getting reinforcements one way or another, and that if we don't then no matter how this fight goes we'll be forced to retreat. This is also something that can narratively happen! The QM isn't required to give us endless glory and easily winnable scenarios, a story beat of, "Raka is pissed at a lack of reinforcements to her sector and has to retreat and thinks the government is sabotaging her" would be completely within the bounds of, like, how things actually worked?

So far as it goes, it is the charge on the 9th that seems rather risky, an all-in play on an enemy we know has a Ready Action.

Also, so where DO you think that the missing infantry and cavalry are? Because I swear I haven't actually seen your answer to that. Pinniped's contention is that von Trotha isn't a moron and didn't send the Nymphs west just for kicks, and that he might be trying to develop something there. Yours is... the same? Different?

 

[EagerListener]

"They are marching double-time, or trying to. They ought to join us by the 24th, if the weather holds."

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On the morning of the 23rd, the foremost columns of the Army of the Centre are spotted by your outer lookouts. Aggressive enemy cavalry soon begins flushing out your scouts, intent on blinding your eyes before battle.

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According to Guillory we do have a day until reinforcements arrive, but I feel the value of inexperienced units who just forced march to reach us is ehh, and that's if they make it in time.

Though, rereading a previous post, intending to arrive at Martelnac on the 25th and being on pace to reach Daurstein on the 24th doesn't really make sense.

Guillory will need an updated set of orders, too. He intends to be in Martelnac on the 25th, though you don't see why it should take even that long. That means he could be in Daurstein at the same time as von Trotha or shortly after.

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On the 22nd, you receive word that Guillory has arrived in Grigny-sur-Vaud with the VI. Army. That should put him at Daurstein on the 24th. He sends a messenger before him, with an enlightening letter:

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The bulk of Nornish armies are either still in Vechia looming over the peace talks or on their way back - you have no idea which.

That said, it'll take 3+ weeks for them to march to La Durance, if that's what they're doing. You should have some breathing room.

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But also, we can operate that we have around 3 weeks until Nornish reinforcements arrive, so if we decisively defeat Trotha we should have a much freer hand to act.

 

[Red Rationalist]

I'm basing it on the fact that the actual battles of the actual French Revolutionary War tended to include a minimum of twenty or thirty thousand per side per front, and often significantly more than that. The idea that the professional reinforcements that make up Norn's army will conveniently include exactly enough troops that we'll be able to fight them fair and square, one-to-one, if we defeat and capture Von Trotha feels more like wishful thinking or a belief that this would be "mechanically balanced" than anything based in reality.

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I mean, applying french real life values 1:1 to the quest seems just kind of flawed on it's face. Real life doesn't require 2 sides to type orders for each individual infantry. Army size convention will be differently, we can't reasonably command 50 units of infantry due to time constraints. Our army might be on the lower end, but I expect it to be broadly in the normal range for army sizes.

Exact values aside, I am also not making any sort of claim that we will have fair 1:1 battles with the professional core. I am arguing the amount of forces Trotha can bring to the table influences Norn's behaviour and ability to be agressive, with Trotha serving likely as auxiliary support for operations. The stronger Trotha is, the better the options for the professional core in offensive operations and the tougher our future battles will be. A 10% less unfair battle is also good.

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So far as it goes, it is the charge on the 9th that seems rather risky, an all-in play on an enemy we know has a Ready Action.

Also, so where DO you think that the missing infantry and cavalry are? Because I swear I haven't actually seen your answer to that. Pinniped's contention is that von Trotha isn't a moron and didn't send the Nymphs west just for kicks, and that he might be trying to develop something there. Yours is... the same? Different?

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So, 2 different points. The 9th charging towards us would still result in it being routed due to morale checks (2 disadvantage ones, ambush from one cavalry unit, +50 casulties being likely). Mathing this out, 3 morale checks are sufficient to rout them with a 70% chance, with the 4th shock one finishing the job. One cavalry would take morale damage, but a single check with disadvantage would not make them rout and still allow for flanking moves via the hill range, which is also relevant during his withdrawals.

I think there is a fourth dwarven unit which is probably still in the centre, given that is where he put his other strong dwarves. The cavalry is probably on Sarnscheid in my opinion, given Trotha's general preference for hill positions with cavalry overwatching the centre. Pinniped believes they are slightly further back in the forest, but that doesn't change a lot about the argument. My position here is that the attempted charge of Trotha via the Kirschenholz takes to slow to actually break our centre position (giving us time to rearrange forces, bombard them and exhaust via superior numbers 5-3 infantry, 2-2 cavalry with more artillery in range for us), and a straight charge onto the hobs in the centre will just break due to cavalry envelopment.
He may or may not have planned continuing actions, though I don't think the force was necessarily planning to be immediatley aggressive given that the Nymph still braced. I don't think Trotha will actually commit cavalry forces to supporting a push in Kirschenholz (rarely uses them do other things than screen), and the infantry + horse artillery alone isn't enough to win.

I hope I summarized my position decently clearly here.

 

[natruska]

I agree with Laurent on the operational/strategic side of things. I don't think blowing up the Army of the Centre is necessary to avoid being overrun by Norn's reinforcements. Obviously it'd be great, both for our army and for the broader war, but I don't think it's immediately essential.

For starters, who's to say it guarantees that we'll be facing fewer troops overall? Norn has multiple fronts to distribute the troops returning from Vechia between. Destroying both armies and completely shattering their northern advance would have to convince them to tilt that distribution even more towards the northern prong, right, especially when we're on their soil?

And I think we can reasonably expect some degree of reinforcements/preparation to match what's coming (unless, as Laurent says, being denied reinforcements and told to give ground is used as a narrative beat - which would be kind of cool!) There's still a gap (don't remember how much exactly, a couple of weeks?) between now and when they could really be massing forces to come after us. I can see the case for counting that as a new campaign and getting a new batch of stuff - plus, decent odds that's enough time for de Montelivet to force terms on Gelle-M and seal off that front for a while - which might allow her army to stick around in the region and assist us.

All of this to say that 'we need a decisive victory here for forward looking, operational-strategic reasons' doesn't feel that convincing to me. There's just too much speculation necessary here to make a call. Best to just stick to the simpler case: decisive victories are good because they feel rad as hell.

(All of that said, I'm still with RR on the battleplan. Individual moves like throwing Guillory through the forest or such are certainly risky, but I'm unconvinced that 'remain aggressive' as a whole is truly a riskier plan than pulling back to our fortifications would be. As RR says, even if an attack fails up by the Rotholz we've still got most of our army intact and he can hardly capitalize with a massive chunk of his army recently routed. Pulling back gives him time to rest all his units and try again from square one - re-opening the whole range of possible outcomes from 'decisive victory' to 'devastating defeat')

((Though I kind of suspect that if we pull back von T might just withdraw (not a bad outcome! decent little victory!), both because it fits his personality/makes tactical sense and because we'd definitely be going over a 10-turn battle length if he had to rest all his units and start again from square 1.))

 

[Pinniped]

The 109th doesn't present a credible threat against our centre. They would be blindly charging, introducing one morale check at the cost of tremedous casualties

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Who said anything abput the centre? They pose a credible, immediate threat to our halfling pathfinders in the Kirchenholz. The 109th will obviously not stay where they are since they are currently exposed abd vulnerable to our artillery and cavalry. They will either move forward into the Kirchenholz or retreat. The latter would leave his Nymphs alone without support, so it is absolutely most likely that they will move South into the forest.

Honestly, this kind of thing is kind of why I think @The Laurent said you seem to be forgetting the enemy gets a turn and wants to defeat us as well. The enemy has a brain too, they can do calculations too. Obviously the 109th will not charge suicidalky across the field into our center, they will move south into the forest to support the nymphs and go after out pathfinders.

There are 3 scenario for the Nymphs when they walk into ambush, 1,2, or 3 attacks depending on their orders. The 3 attacks would mean that Trotha sees our Halfing withdraw south and decides to charge his Nymphs way ahead of the rest of his infantry, right near our lancers. This is very unlikely, and 2 attacks doesn't make sense with the movement, since 2 charges just leaves the nymphs on the open plains. Doing the calcs,

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And here as well you are ignoring the 109th, who will most likely charge into the forest and go after our pathfinders. This is why I want to get them out back to the hills to safety, that forest will soon be contested by the enemy nymphs and hobgoblins, as well as potentially any other hidden enemy units.

I really believe there is a high likelyhood for there to be significant enemy forces on the Western flank we have not detected yet. At least his missing unit of infantry and horse artillery. Lets look at what has been happening there the past few turns:
T2: The halfling pathfinders we sent there to scout come under fire from a Feared enemy artillery. The placement of artillery here covers only the West flank, it is useless for fighting in the center.
T3: The enemy nymphs appear on this flank, as do the 109th who surprise and rout one of our best cavalry units. These units move out of the forest south towards Kirchenholz surprisingly aggressively.

Does this sound like a probing, scouting force or an enemy assault group supported by artillery? I wager it is the latter.

Note also that Von Trptha sent three infantry East and kept three in the center. It makes sense for him to send three infantry West as well.

 

[Red Rationalist]

Who said anything abput the centre? They pose a credible, immediate threat to our halfling pathfinders in the Kirchenholz. The 109th will obviously not stay where they are since they are currently exposed abd vulnerable to our artillery and cavalry. They will either move forward into the Kirchenholz or retreat. The latter would leave his Nymphs alone without support, so it is absolutely most likely that they will move South into the forest.

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Ok, routing the Halflings isn't any path towards defeating us in itself. It's not ideal, but we are arguing for "He will commit forces to Kirschenholz, than engage in attacks, than push over the hills, than try to assault our main position. I mean, he can accomplish this over a couple of turns (2ish for routing them in direct, based on their general morale modifers requiring a decent bit of morale damage), which is then going to be followed up on by a track over the hills, which could hypothetically allow for further attacks. I don't see such a thing plausibly shattering the main position of ours, something that is required for a defeat. There is just too much time for us counterplaying and weakening this force.

Note also that Von Trptha sent three infantry East and kept three in the center. It makes sense for him to send three infantry West as well.

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He has three. Humans, nymphs and hobs.Also, the 109th Hobs stumbled into charging the hill. Seems more like an attempt to clear and occupy the hill in case of hidden halflings there.

I really believe there is a high likelyhood for there to be significant enemy forces on the Western flank we have not detected yet. At least his missing unit of infantry and horse artillery. Lets look at what has been happening there the past few turns:
T2: The halfling pathfinders we sent there to scout come under fire from a Feared enemy artillery. The placement of artillery here covers only the West flank, it is useless for fighting in the center.
T3: The enemy nymphs appear on this flank, as do the 109th who surprise and rout one of our best cavalry units. These units move out of the forest south towards Kirchenholz surprisingly aggressively.

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I mean, is there any reason to assume that over "he kept his dwarves in reserve" as a general strategy? If he is unwilling to assault Rotholz with dwarves, where they are obviously crucial, why would he send commit a singular dwarven unit to go into the forest? I don't see the evidence for this assymetry in assigned combat groups.

 

[The Laurent]

Because of how momentum works, it does seem advisable not to just shrug at the risk of routing but to avoid it as much as possible, because momentum applies to the entire battlefield.

 

[Red Rationalist]

Because of how momentum works, it does seem advisable not to just shrug at the risk of routing but to avoid it as much as possible, because momentum applies to the entire battlefield.

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We are going to rout enemy units in the intermediate time. We are likely to rout 3 units in the upcoming turn regardless of specific plan (33rd + Elves), giving us +2 net momentum. At it's very worst, the halflings routing would swing that back to a -1, which is utterly manageable without risking collapse.

 

[Chimeraguard]

I feel we need a way to more easily look at the maps for all the various plans since there's been so many different plans pushed. But in general if we think it's feasible I'd definitely be in favor of taking out as many of von Trotha's artillery batteries as possible. Aside from The Volunteer Artillery, all of the arty is at least Regular with quite a few Professional and Experienced units factored in.

Furthermore, judging by the Nornish naming schemes where Provincial Units are named after the place they're raised from, the artillery for the Provincial Armies seems to be seconded from the actual Nornish military (which also explains the higher XP levels.) With that in mind, a solid victory here could take out a good chunk of Norn's quality artillery units, especially since von Trotha prioritizes artillery heavily compared to other Nornish leaders (with conventional Nornish thought relying heavily on infantry.)

A decisive defeat of von Trotha's army should also mean we can capture a lot of those guns, and I think it was suggested there'd be ways to trade surplus equipment for Influence, not to mention the big Influence just from taking out higher XP troops. With that, we could make up for any heavier losses by being able to recruit from the large pool of retired veterans that still exists in Arne. And a decisive defeat of von Trotha should give us plenty of time to make up for those losses because we'll still have time before the main Nornish army arrives and can fortify the southern bank of the river.

 

[Pinniped]

Ok, routing the Halflings isn't any path towards defeating us in itself. It's not ideal, but we are arguing for "He will commit forces to Kirschenholz, than engage in attacks, than push over the hills, than try to assault our main position. I mean, he can accomplish this over a couple of turns (2ish for routing them in direct, based on their general morale modifers requiring a decent bit of morale damage), which is then going to be followed up on by a track over the hills, which could hypothetically allow for further attacks. I don't see such a thing plausibly shattering the main position of ours, something that is required for a defeat. There is just too much time for us counterplaying and weakening this force.

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Ok, here is something concrete we can discuss: time. Namely, what is actually your planned timeline for your attack through Rotholz? In how many turns can we credibly threaten his artillery, forcing him to withdraw? Where are you planning on putting our attacking units?

Because the way I see it, Kirchenholz may well start to become an issue at about the same time your attack is culminating. Or do you really intend to win this battle in two turns?

I mean, is there any reason to assume that over "he kept his dwarves in reserve" as a general strategy

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Honestly, if you expect him to have two units of cavalry and one unit of Dwarves hidden in the center, I do not understand how you even think the attack is possible? Are you not then at a serious disadvantage, with 4 of our infantry and 4 cavalry against 4 of his infantry, 4 cavalry and his 7 artillery? Like genuinly, could you outline on the map how you imagine this attack going with the forces in play?

(All of that said, I'm still with RR on the battleplan. Individual moves like throwing Guillory through the forest or such are certainly risky, but I'm unconvinced that 'remain aggressive' as a whole is truly a riskier plan than pulling back to our fortifications would be. As RR says, even if an attack fails up by the Rotholz we've still got most of our army intact and he can hardly capitalize with a massive chunk of his army recently routed. Pulling back gives him time to rest all his units and try again from square one - re-opening the whole range of possible outcomes from 'decisive victory' to 'devastating defeat')

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To be clear, my plan is not a plan for immediate withdrawal. I am absolutely not proposing an immediate withdrawal from Rotholz. What I propose is to stick to the original plan, keep and strengthen our current positions and beat back his probing attacks on both flanks. If we can force his troops back, he can either withdraw or keep beating his head against our fortified forward positions. My intent is only to retreat if the pressure on our forward positions becomes too high, which is absolutely not the case at Rotholz currently.

I am also not ruling out going on the offensive later, but I think we are poorly positioned for the attempt now. His artillery is set up, he still has hidden units in reserve and he is pressuring our Western flank. Stabilizing and defending our flanks should take precedence over offensive actions now.

 

[EagerListener]

[X] Plan: Counter Attack
-[X] Visualization (Still a bit unused to Inkscape, so I used google docs draw to get it done quicker)
-[X] Infantry
-[X] 72nd Hum: Move after Guillory Hussars have acted: Fire at 33rd Dwa, Move E Facing NE, Brace
-[X] 148th Hum: 3*Move SE
-[X] 42nd Elv: Act 1st 3*Melee 155th Elv
-[X] 45th Elv: Act 1st 2 Melee 155th Elv, and 1 melee 74th
-[X] 251st Hob: Act after 72nd have moved: Hide, Hide, Brace
-[X] 200th Hob: Move W, 2*ReadyFire NE 400m
-[X] 19th Half Pfd: Brace, Ready Fire (Close Range NE), Ready Melee Adjacent Unit, priotize hitting NE unit
-[X] 16th Half Pfd: Move [SW], Face NE, Brace
-[X] 28th Half Pfd: Fire at 20th Dwa [ambush, token damage but stress buildup], 2* move [SE, SW]
-[X] Cavalry
-[X] G. H: After the our infantry units East of the Rotholz fortress have acted (45th/42nd), charge the 9th Elv Hsr
-[X] 13th Hob Lance: Move W, Ready Charge Rear of Unit that moves onto plains within 400m and is west of Schloss.
-[X] 55th Elv Hsr: Act after 72nd have moved: Move [E,NE, Ne], Ready Charge + Ready Move (Trigger: any unit that approaches beyond the Rotholz line, move towards orginal position after charge)
-[X] Artillery
-[X] Horse Artillery: Act after 72nd/10th have acted: Move 2W, Fire at 20th Dwa
-[X] 31st Elv Art: Act after 72nd/10th have acted: Set Up, Fire at 20th Dwa
-[X] 10th Hum Art: Act after Guillory Hussars have acted: Fire at 33rd Dwa, Move E, Face NE
-[X] 84th Elv Art: Act after 72nd/10th have acted: Fire at 20th Dwa, Move E, Face NE
HQ
-[X] HQ: resupply 10th Hum Art after firing

Decide to repost my plan due to the many changes that have been made. You can see my changes/calcs here. The main changes are ordering the units to act in a certain order, this helps allocate momentum so we have an overall higher chance of routing units. And for the visualization, I will extend the 55th's range. I expect to rout somewhere around 4-5 units, maybe a bit more depending on Trotha's actions in the west.

The 45th/42nd/33rd are all on high stress and should rout pretty easily. For the 20th, we attack it with a bunch of units, and from stacking morale checks/some momentum, they're pretty likely to rout as well. The Nymphs and the Lancers depend on Trotha actions next turn, but we have a pretty good chance to rout them.

For the 9th, the 1st has just sat there ready actioning for three turns. The 9th searched and ready action, searched 3 times, and then searched and ready action. Trotha is presumably waiting for us to do the thing he has waited for us to do the entire battle, charge up the center and into his guns.

And here as well you are ignoring the 109th, who will most likely charge into the forest and go after our pathfinders. This is why I want to get them out back to the hills to safety, that forest will soon be contested by the enemy nymphs and hobgoblins, as well as potentially any other hidden enemy units.

I really believe there is a high likelyhood for there to be significant enemy forces on the Western flank we have not detected yet. At least his missing unit of infantry and horse artillery. Lets look at what has been happening there the past few turns:
T2: The halfling pathfinders we sent there to scout come under fire from a Feared enemy artillery. The placement of artillery here covers only the West flank, it is useless for fighting in the center.
T3: The enemy nymphs appear on this flank, as do the 109th who surprise and rout one of our best cavalry units. These units move out of the forest south towards Kirchenholz surprisingly aggressively.

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Why? That logic doesn't make any sense, he doesn't have enough movement to move through the forest to see the hill. Charging the 109th into the forest only makes sense if you already know are Halflings are there.

Also, if Trotha was planning to use his cavalry and horse artillery on the left, he would have already done so already. Honestly, I think there is a decent chance his horse artillery is in the center, readyfiring for a charge in the center, I feel like it is the only explanation that makes sense as to why we just have not seen it. Horse artillery is "a novel and rare invention" so there is a chance he just doesn't use its mobility or appreciates its advantages.

I also disagree that his core force is nearly shattered. We will rout 3 out of 10 of his infantry, with 2 more having taken significant Morale damage from our artillery. Nothing a bit of Resting can't fix. His artillery and cavalry are his real assets, the infantry are poor quality meat shields. Both of those assets are still at full strength, which is why I do not think we have good attacking chances.

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Once routed, units have to move to a safe spot. That might take 1 or 2 turns, then another action to rest. The answer to having several units rout is not just resting a bit. Furthermore, even if infantry are just "poor quality meat shields" (something the 108th would probably disagree with), his infantry protect his artillery. If we rout a bunch of units in his center/right he won't have enough units to protect his artillery.

We are going to rout enemy units in the intermediate time. We are likely to rout 3 units in the upcoming turn regardless of specific plan (33rd + Elves), giving us +2 net momentum. At it's very worst, the halflings routing would swing that back to a -1, which is utterly manageable without risking collapse.

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The halfing routing is unlikely, both halfing routing is very unlikely. This is assuming the 19th is targeted first, (they have higher stress). Calcs

@Photomajig, Is the 19th in melee? We haven't entered into the zone of control but we are in the zone of control.

 

[natruska]

I don't really understand how Kirschenholz is supposed to be an issue if the halflings retreat to the hills. How is this halfling rout supposed to even happen?

I said this earlier: any unit that charges them is standing in open plains right next to our cavalry, artillery and hobs. Any unit that doesn't charge them is in a shooting duel against halfling disadvantage and rifles.

Any attempt to break through on the left there would be extremely exposed. I don't really see the threat?

 

[Red Rationalist]

Ok, here is something concrete we can discuss: time. Namely, what is actually your planned timeline for your attack through Rotholz? In how many turns can we credibly threaten hus artillery, forcing him to withdraw? Where are you planning on putting our attacking units?

Because the way I see it, Kirchenholz may well start to become an issue at about the same time your attack is culminating. Or do you really intend to win this battle in two turns?

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A fair question. The broad, but unsatisfying answer would be "whenever an opportunity presents itself". The timeline I have in mind is that Trotha will pull up a screening force during the next turn, avoid further engagement due to his weak centre position and start the retreat 2, or at the very latest 3 turns from now. I don't see him attempting another assault or a follow-up he would actually attempt, and the cavalry in the Rotholz makes his position fragile due to potential battery losses. If he retreats early, we use the very forward hussars to harass and make him loose artillery during the retreat. Even without a direct charge, we also benefit from the further disorder we introduce through pressure.

Honestly, if you expect him to have two units of cavalry and one unit of Dwarves hidden in the center, I do not understand how you even think the attack is possible? Are you not then at a serious disadvantage, with 4 of our infantry and 4 cavalry against 4 of his infantry, 4 cavalry and his 7 artillery? Like genuinly, could you outline on the map how you imagine this attack going with the forces in play?

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4 infantry and cavalry attacks (4-3 according to the broad plans) versus some severely weakened 3 dwarves? It is doable, mainly because the 33rd are going to be routed, the 20th is going to suffer quite a bit more stress from bombardment losses and ambush , while the 72nd still has an insane +10 modifier. Our units survive more stress, with some momentum we can break the dwarves via force concentration and artillery support. They can only take 3-4 stress checks overall after positive momentum, so yeah.

 

[Pinniped]

Why? That logic doesn't make any sense, he doesn't have enough movement to move through the forest to see the hill. Charging the 109th into the forest only makes sense if you already know are Halflings are there.

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He does know the halflings are there, since one of our halfling units is right next to his Nymphs. They can see them.

But even if he does not know, moving the 109yth is the obvious move since the alternatively is leaving them on a hill right in the sights of our artillery. The Nymphs and the 109th were advancing South together, why in the world would he separate the two now?

 

[Pinniped]

I don't really understand how Kirschenholz is supposed to be an issue if the halflings retreat to the hills. How is this halfling rout supposed to even happen?

I said this earlier: any unit that charges them is standing in open plains right next to our cavalry, artillery and hobs. Any unit that doesn't charge them is in a shooting duel against halfling disadvantage and rifles.

Any attempt to break through on the left there would be extremely exposed. I don't really see the threat?

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It is much less of a threat if the halflings retreat to the hills and the hobs stay put. This is what I propose in my plan, as well as moving the Hobs slightly to the West to be closer to help the halflings if needed. However, @EagerListener 's current plan does not retreat with the halflings, instead they stay in the forest to ambush the Nymphs. Which puts the halflings at risk in my opinion.

Earlier, there was also an even more aggressive plan that moved the Hobs away to Rotholz. That would have left the halflings completely unsupported, since our cavalry could not have ptotected both them and our artillery. But that idea seems to have been scrapped by now.

EDIT: The threat of a Kirchenholz flanking also means we need to keep the Hobs and the cavalry in the center. That means any offensive in the East is not likely to work, we would need all oir cavalry to protect our assault force from his cavalry.

 

[EagerListener]

He does know the halflings are there, since one of our halfling units is right next to his Nymphs. They can see them.

But even if he does not know, moving the 109yth is the obvious move since the alternatively is leaving them on a hill right in the sights of our artillery. The Nymphs and the 109th were advancing South together, why in the world would he separate the two now?

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In my plan, I'm moving one of my halfings back so that Trotha can't see them. As for the 109th moving them SW would get in the way of the 17th Hum, and they if do move SW, then won't have enough movement to do anything, while SE gets them an ambush and a lancer cav charge. Pretty likely to rout them.

It is much less of a threat if the halflings retreat to the hills and the hobs stay put. This is what I propose in my plan, as well as moving the Hobs slightly to the West to be closer to help the halflings if needed. However, @EagerListener 's current plan does not retreat with the halflings, instead they stay in the forest to ambush the Nymphs. Which puts the halflings at risk in my opinion.

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I have literally done the calcs.
There are 3 scenario for the Nymphs when they walk into ambush, 1,2, or 3 attacks depending on their orders. The 3 attacks would mean that Trotha sees our Halfing withdraw south and decides to charge his Nymphs way ahead of the rest of his infantry, right near our lancers. This is very unlikely, and 2 attacks doesn't make sense with the movement, since 2 charges just leaves the nymphs on the open plains.

1 attack doesn't do enough damage, 2 attacks have a 67.4% chance to do 50+ casualties, 3 attacks has a 94.95% chance and 25.79% to do 100+ casualties. For morale checked, accounting for feared, one check has a 10% chance of rout and two checks have a 50% chance of rout. So the overall rout chance is not that high, and this is assuming the halfing with greater stress is targetted.

If that halfing does rout, then the morale check is also survivable for the neighboring halfling.

There is also the chance that the halflings do not rout because Trotha pulls his units back because of the damage we do in the center/right.

 

[Red Rationalist]

It is much less of a threat if the halflings retreat to the hills and the hobs stay put. This is what I propose in my plan, as well as moving the Hobs slightly to the West to be closer to help the halflings if needed. However, @EagerListener 's current plan does not retreat with the halflings, instead they stay in the forest to ambush the Nymphs. Which puts the halflings at risk in my opinion.

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Keeping them in the forest also blocks of path of advances. With the Hobs having quite a bit of stress (+5), staying there also has a chance of routing those if the engage in an attack. If your concerned about flanking this is a valid, if somewhat bloodier approach.

EDIT: The threat of a Kirchenholz flanking means we need to keep the Hobs and the cavalry in the center. That means any offensive in the East is not likely to work, we would need all oir cavalry to protect our assault force from his cavalry.

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And now we are back to speculation. Those are 3 units, fundamentally going up against 5 until the halflings are routed. I think keeping a single unit there is pretty sufficient, especially considering the 108th will regroup with 2 AP after 2 turns. His approach would take at least this much time if he doesn't want to expose himself to artillery fire and the risk of being routed that way.

 

[Pinniped]

A fair question. The broad, but unsatisfying answer would be "whenever an opportunity presents itself". The timeline I have in mind is that Trotha will pull up a screening force during the next turn, avoid further engagement due to his weak centre position and start the retreat 2, or at the very latest 3 turns from now. I don't see him attempting another assault or a follow-up he would actually attempt, and the cavalry in the Rotholz makes his position fragile due to potential battery losses.

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So, with no clear timeline, how can you be confident that the Kirchenholz flank won't become a problem before you win in the East? Since you intend to use cavalry in the east, it cannot be used to beat back or slow him down in the West.

4 infantry and cavalry attacks (4-3 according to the broad plans) versus some severely weakened 3 dwarves?

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For Hobb's sake, he has cavalry and artillery support too! He has 4 cavalry and a staggering 7 pieces of artillery on that front by your own count! 4 infantry and 4 cavalry against 3-4 infantry, 4 cavalry and support from 7 artillery are not good odds. We will lose a unit each time his artillery fires. Maybe even two, since they will be firing ambush shots! For context, two of our artillery shooting from ambush almost routed his 31th Dwa. And he has seven artillery.

Btw, that 31th Dwa with the Brilliant CO? They will have Rested by the time your attack arrives, and thus will be able to fight. His other infantry may be weak, but Brilliant Dwarves will not be easy to beat.

 

[Pinniped]

As for the 109th moving them SW would get in the way of the 17th Hum, and they if do move SW, then won't have enough movement to do anything, while SE gets them an ambush and a lancer cav charge. Pretty likely to rout them.

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He can avoid the plains completely if the 17th just moves before the 109th. It makes sense for him to do so, since on the plains he is vulnerable to our cavalry and artillery.

Also, wait, is the 17th confirmed to be there? That would mean I was right and he has three units on the Western flank. It also means he committed better infantry there than for the Rotholz flank, which again may mean this is a real assault and not a scouting party.

I have literally done the calcs.
There are 3 scenario for the Nymphs when they walk into ambush, 1,2, or 3 attacks depending on their orders. The 3 attacks would mean that Trotha sees our Halfing withdraw south and decides to charge his Nymphs way ahead of the rest of his infantry, right near our lancers. This is very unlikely, and 2 attacks doesn't make sense with the movement, since 2 charges just leaves the nymphs on the open plains.

1 attack doesn't do enough damage, 2 attacks have a 67.4% chance to do 50+ casualties, 3 attacks has a 94.95% chance and 25.79% to do 100+ casualties. For morale checked, accounting for feared, one check has a 10% chance of rout and two checks have a 50% chance of rout. So the overall rout chance is not that high, and this is assuming the halfing with greater stress is targetted.

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Do these calcs include the 109th and the 17th? Because the Nymphs are not the only threat. Also, him charging the Nymphs ahead until they reach the forest's edge makes perfect sense to me. They are Nymphs, he knows they can catch any other unit in the forest and they are safer there. Our cavalry does not help since the Nymphs are staying in the forest.

 

[Red Rationalist]

So, with no clear timeline, how can you be confident that the Kirchenholz flank won't become a problem before you win in the East? Since you intend to use cavalry in the east, it cannot be used to beat back or slow him down in the West.

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I have repeatedly pointed stated I expect he will retreat in 2-3 turns and why expect his advancement south to take longer (routing halflings, terrain for most units and so on). The 17th and 109th can only go 2 forest tiles a turn at maximum movement. How is this not a timeline? Am I supposed to look into the future and use a crystal ball to say when the conditions for a charge are right?

For Hobb's sake, he has cavalry and artillery support too! He has 4 cavalry and a staggering 7 pieces of artillery on that front by your own count! 4 infantry and 4 cavalry against 3-4 infantry, cavalry and support from 7 artillery are npt good odds. We will lose a unit each time his artillery fires.

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That's not how artillery fire works. Alright, most of the artillery would not get anbushes until repositioned, though he could potentially get 4 morale checks in total this way, generally concentrated on one unit. Additionally, he would loose one of his own units once we are in melee under the new rules. The exact routing depends on which unit takes fire, thought here is a chance he wastes fire on the 72nd in the current position. Regardless, he can rout at least one of our units, but a moment may present itself when the units that get through shatter the dwarves.

If this opportunity doesn't come, I want to launch attacks into the rear of the artillery with the hussars, going over the hill to prevent fire. We can kill some of his artillery there.

 

[EagerListener]

For the cavalry, the 1st has just sat there ready actioning for three turns. The 9th searched and ready action, searched 3 times, and then searched and ready action. Trotha has not used any of his cavalry at all during this entire battle besides as screens. This turn, he has not used used his cavalry on the left. So why would he assume he will use his cavalry offensively??

Btw, that 31th Dwa with the Brilliant CO? They will have Rested by the time your attack arrives, and thus will be able to fight. His other infantry may be weak, but Brilliant Dwarves will not be easy to beat.

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It's literally one unit, with only a +10 combat modifier, and +5 morale modifer, which will be basically gone from momentum.

For Hobb's sake, he has cavalry and artillery support too! He has 4 cavalry and a staggering 7 pieces of artillery on that front by your own count! 4 infantry and 4 cavalry against 3-4 infantry, 4 cavalry and support from 7 artillery are not good odds. We will lose a unit each time his artillery fires. Maybe even two, since they will be firing ambush shots! For context, two of our artillery shooting from ambush almost routed his 31th Dwa. And he has seven artillery.

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Question, will Trotha hold back all of his cavalry to defend against our push or will he send his cavalry? You seem to be arguing that we need to hold units back to defend our artillery but also a push can't overcome all of his cavalry.

As for odds, Trotha will lose possibly 5 units from routing this turn on the right/center in addition to the already routed 4th Hum. On our turn our artillery could rout a few more units as well. Our units are protected by terrain and hills.

He can avoid the plains completely if the 17th just moves before the 109th. It makes sense for him to do so, since on the plains he is vulnerable to our cavalry and artillery.

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Do these calcs include the 109th and the 17th? Because the Nymphs are not the only threat. Also, him charging the Nymphs ahead until they reach the forest's edge makes perfect sense to me. They are Nymphs, he knows they can catch any other unit in the forest and they are safer there. Our cavalry does not help since the Nymphs are staying in the forest.

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They literally do not have enough movement. Hill+Forest if 5 movement, they can't doing anything in the forest. If he know Nymphs "can catch any other unit in the forest and they are safer there, then that perfectly falls into my plans with the Halfing ambush.

 

[Pinniped]

I have repeatedly pointed stated I expect he will retreat in 2-3 turns and why expect his advancement south to take longer (routing halflings, terrain for most units and so on). The 17th and 109th can only go 2 forest tiles a turn at maximum movement. How is this not a timeline? Am I supposed to look into the future and use a crystal ball to say when the conditions for a charge are right?

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Well, it does feel like you are looking at a crustal ball with your 2-3 turn prediction for his retreat.

As for the Kirchenholz, if he has cavalry lurking there, which was my original proposal, he only needs to shatter the halflings after which the cavalry can reach the back of the hills in one turn. Then we are the ones who must immediately retreat to save our artillery. This could happen within 3-4 turns with some bad luck for us, if we neglect stabilizing the Western flank.

Additionally, he would loose one of his own units once we are in melee under the new rules

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Getting into melee will be the bloody part. We are basically guaranteed to lose a unit before even reaching melee range, in my opinion.

If this opportunity doesn't come, I want to launch attacks into the rear of the artillery with the hussars, going over the hill to prevent fire. We can kill some of his artillery there.

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His cavalry (the 9th and 1st) currently occupying those hills may have something to say abput that.

They literally do not have enough movement. Hill+Forest if 5 movement, they can't doing anything in the forest

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Terrain movement modifiers do not stack. It is 3 movement.

Question, will Trotha hold back all of his cavalry to defend against our push or will he send his cavalry? You seem to be arguing that we need to hold units back to defend our artillery but also a push can't overcome all of his cavalry.

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My answer is that I do not know. And that is indeed a problem, we do not know where half his cavalry is. Until we know where they are, we cannot move up our best offensive units, the Hobgoblins. And if we attack now, we may find out too late. Since cavalry moves much faster than hobgoblins, his cavalry is able to move from a position where they threaten our artillery into a position where they threaten our offensive push within one turn. The reverse is also true, if we expose a vulnerability on the flank or in the center, his cavalry can quickly arrive to exploit it. Especially if our cavalry is degrades further by risky offensive actions. This is why I oppose charging the 9th, since we fisk valuable cavalry for questionable gain.