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Arch-Demon's Eternal Game: Aeon Edition, The Turtle Chronicles

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Anyway I'm going to do some Role-set analysis to see what we likely have real quick
 
One of the kills on Wiadi was strongman, so it is very unlikely they stacked attacks. Demons would have known he was a gnome, since they had a possessed Gnome.
 
Broken Base said:
If the demon is, say, ondine, isn't that exactly what they did? Then again she had that weird shift onto three letter poster before jumping to Rosen last sec when she could have been pushing Rosen the whole time... hm. Let me get back to you on this; I think I'll have to try and think about what was going on at that EOD. It is certainly possible I'm just overthinking this.
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I hadn't realized how last minute @ondine's vote was here. The way tiebreakers work means they did only need the one switch, but if they didn't know that they'd have thought that they had to put two votes on either -Rosen or -Ondine. Okay, yeah, I can sort of see how they would think that was too obvious.
 
I actually think Shadell miiight have a point? I'm uncertain what to make of Reliable's logic right now. I'm not inherently sure that it's scum-motivated but it's very bizarre. I'm kind of with hailcapital? It feels like it should be a scumslip but with the way it's framed and he's talking about it it just feels strange more than anything.

Also I decided to look at Scia's posts and they were pushing really hard at Rosen by the end there. Which could mean it was a Rosen kill or could mean they got PR vibes from Scia, or could mean something else. I'm going to note it though, for future reference.
 
hailcapital said:
I hadn't realized how last minute @ondine's vote was here. The way tiebreakers work means they did only need the one switch, but if they didn't know that they'd have thought that they had to put two votes on either -Rosen or -Ondine. Okay, yeah, I can sort of see how they would think that was too obvious.
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It should be noted before it was asked we didn't know how tiebreakers work, and usually for this site it's random is all other things are equal. At least in my experience.


ondine said:
Ugh
[X] vote -Rosen

I think
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To that end I would like an explanation here, given one was not given at the time and you forced a tie.
 
Byzantine said:
One of the kills on Wiadi was strongman, so it is very unlikely they stacked attacks. Demons would have known he was a gnome, since they had a possessed Gnome.
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You're right, but I'm confused why demons kill a gnome here. Gnomes are survivors that can win with demons, so a living gnome acts like an extra demon in terms of when LYLO occurs.
 
Possible pulled sets based off Known roles:

From set A-
Set A6: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human, Human, Human Knight, Elf, Orc, Demon, Demon, Fiend, Fiend.
Set A7: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human, Human, Human Knight, Elf, Dwarf, Demon, Demon, Fiend, Fiend.
Set A8: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human, Human, Human Knight, Gnome, Orc, Demon, Demon, Fiend, Fiend.
Set A9: Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human Freedom Fighter, Human, Human, Human Knight, Gnome, Dwarf, Demon, Demon, Fiend, Fiend.

From Set B-
Set B3: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Fiend.
Set B8: Human, Human, Demon, Fiendish Orc.
Set B10: Human Knight, Elf, Elf, Fiendish Orc.
Set B15: Human Knight, Dwarf, Dwarf, Possessed Gnome.
Set B18: Human, Human, Possessed Elf, Fiendish Orc.
Set B20: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Fiendish Elf.
Set B21: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Fiendish Gnome.
Set B22: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Fiendish Orc.
Set B23: Human, Human, Possessed Gnome, Fiendish Dwarf.
Set B26: Human, Human, Possessed Orc, Fiendish Orc.
Set B30: Human, Human, Possessed Dwarf, Fiendish Orc.

From Set Alpha-
Anything so let's ignore alpha for now.

From Set Beta-
Also Anything at this time. Isn't math grand.

What have we learned?

Frankly nothing but I'll update this every day until I day as something to help get my brain rolling. Good news: We have 2 more human mason's trotting around and a human Knight. Yay! That is our only 100% at this moment.
 
ComiTurtle said:
@Wiadi has been "Blown Away" and "Scattered across the room," they were a Gnome. A Token of Exchange was found on their body.
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Ah, thanks for pointing that out guys. Hadn't made the connection between them being a Gnome and Tykan also being a Gnome.

Now I know what happened.
 
Broken Base said:
I'm not sure why scum would be aiming for a crosskill right now? Right after losing a member doesn't sound like a great time tbh.
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Only way I can logic out hitting a survivor they knew was a survivor and they didn't need dead was if they assumed they were an enemy. Otherwise the move is just utter nonsense.
 
Byzantine said:
To that end I would like an explanation here, given one was not given at the time and you forced a tie.
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I second this.

hailcapital said:
You're right, but I'm confused why demons kill a gnome here. Gnomes are survivors that can win with demons, so a living gnome acts like an extra demon in terms of when LYLO occurs.
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We delve into some wine here BUT. Some of the sets have cross-overs and this was before the fiendish orc reveal. Demons know more directly what the possible set roles are based off what they have. Same for fiends. There are ways for there to be both Fiendish and Possessed variants of a survivor race. Wiadi knowingly voted against another gnome. Which begs the question of why would they do that? My theory: Demons thought Wiadi was fiendish. There is also some possibilities of the Ferryman's coin being put to work here however this is more generalistic.


hailcapital said:
We've also learned there isn't a hellbeast, which since that's 50/50 is pretty significant.
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No. Actually we've learned nothing about Alpha Set. An Sk could have easilly held their attack to make us believe another role was drawn. Alpha set is completely unknown still in terms of chance.
 
Shadell said:
Wands are a likely pick for scum if anything. Town wants to stay alive, and while the one shot vig is good, it's often distinctly *better* for scum to try to make a lot of kills early on (what I suspect happened). Scum also have the best chance of not friendly firing early game, so towny vigs with 1 shot are unlikely to fire until they have a better clue or it's late game and that can swing things afaict.


It's not a very serious vote, but it's a distinctly alarming kind of logic to want more death N1 imo, that sets off the scum alarm.
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I wasn't thinking about it from that perspective, my apologies. My two intertwining strings of thought were less scum = more good, alongside the nigh certainty that wands were going to be used. I was hoping that scum, who were unlucky enough to have a member voted out on the first night, would continue to suffer ill fortune. Obviously not the case in hindsight, but having optimism is free!
 
Cyricubed said:
Which begs the question of why would they do that? My theory: Demons thought Wiadi was fiendish. There is also some possibilities of the Ferryman's coin being put to work here however this is more generalistic.
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Maybe I'm just an idiot, but I just don't get why that's a scumteam's gameplan after losing a member on D1. What they want to do right now is weaken town/groups that can align with town, not the Fiends. I don't see why that'd be their top priority to the point of a strongman kill.
 
Broken Base said:
I'm not sure why scum would be aiming for a crosskill right now? Right after losing a member doesn't sound like a great time tbh.
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The amount of scum can get pretty high this early. I think early narrowing of the enemy team would be better in comparison to having to slugfest it out later

Shadell said:
Or got jailed, though I don't think Cyri or BB would have claimed that so readily if they had.
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No.

ComiTurtle said:
Hellish Fury

All your actions are always Strongman Actions. You cannot be stopped from taking any action by a Mystic Cage, nor prevented from killing by a Staff of Life, unless the target is a Dwarf being protected by such items. Item use may be prevented by the Rope of Darkness, but your kills can never be stopped.
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And besides Not claiming jailed is more suspicious in my opinion when you are jailed for a night.
 
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