And I don't think it was mentioned (although I may have missed it) that there's probably around a 50% chance that the second treasure is in Blackthorn, so if we think we can get there fast enough running there to grab it first and ambush him there is an option worth considering.
There's also a question of how often they have to stop though. I'm talking about them only raiding for food and supplies (and that's if they're stocks run low. We don't know how much backup they're holding). They may be scorching the asphalt heading for the next Gravequest Site. If they're not then our standard forces and aerial surveillance will pick up their path of destruction soon enough and we'll decide on our next action once we have that intelligence.
I'd expect them to sack every settlement on the way between Dawn Flower and his destination, and probably some ones close to the route, so he can continue to expand his horde.
We've already hashed this point out. Blackthorn would let him use his vehicles and have more angles of approach. Having a human wave through a single chokepoint is the BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO for us. That's in Indigo Leaf. And he's going to have to burn down Indigo Leaf before he learns about Blackthorn anyway.
The question asked wasn't about chasing him. It was about trying to preempt him by going directly to Blackthorn.
Your argument that we keep the initiative by sitting still and hoping the Biomancer does exactly what you want because you want it is keeping the initiative is not credible.
Detachments from our military can still do most of the stuff we would be doing in person to get a fix on his trail, but we keep the bulk of our forces at the only LIKELY target we know of rather than running the entire army around the map like Keystone Cops.
I wasn't assessing the pros and cons of chasing him, as you should know, so I have no idea why you bring this up.
You'll note that I put the difficulty of defending Owl's Nest as a downside of the other option I was asked to analyse.
Perhaps I misinterpreted your statement. I'm running a bit short on benefit of the doubt after your repeated attempts at a strawman argument regarding my motivations for this plan yesterday.
I wasn't asked to analyse the pros and cons of my plan.
No. We cannot. Not reliably. Mirande would have to stay out ahead and wouldn't likely be able to predict an ambush, and we'd still have to stop for barricades, hostile locals, etc. and all this requires us to pick up his trail in the first place, which is far from guaranteed.
But then we're just going back into the same old argument circle from earlier.
And I don't think it was mentioned (although I may have missed it) that there's probably around a 50% chance that the second treasure is in Blackthorn, so if we think we can get there fast enough running there to grab it first and ambush him there is an option worth considering.
There is a one in three chance that the second treasure is in Blackthorn. It could be #2, #5 or #6.
And that's assuming that the interpretation of the Memoir which stated two treasures being in Blackthorn is correct. It was said by AN to be probable, but it's inexact.
If we wind up in Blackthorn, we will at least be able to pick up #4, but we'll also be 12,000 kilometers out of position, with no supply chain, no radio contact, no consistent air support.
And if Treasure #2 isn't there, the only path that takes the Biomancer to Blackthorn is THROUGH Indigo Leaf.
MIGHT be. It was ambiguous. Likely the meaning of the memoir, but not certain. So 1 in 3 chance that #2 is there if that's true. But realistically less than 1 in 3 because it might've been a mistranslation.
And I've already refuted this mistake. He can't use vehicles at all in a hub city, as they're stranded uselessly two hundred meters in the air inside a tunnel and can't reach the surface. He has to send his troops down the stairs and through the doors, which we can focus fire on, including artillery after burying the ones we don't want to have to defend. By contrast, he can use vehicles to directly assault the station defences in Indigo Leaf from the inside.
He also has basically the same number of angles of attack against the Hammer's Rest loop as against the Blackthorn loop. He can only approach from two directions rather than three, but that isn't much difference, as we should be able to leave something to watch to see which spur he comes down on.
Having a human wave through a single chokepoint is the BEST POSSIBLE SCENARIO for us. That's in Indigo Leaf. And he's going to have to burn down Indigo Leaf before he learns about Blackthorn anyway.
No. We cannot. Not reliably. Mirande would have to stay out ahead and wouldn't likely be able to predict an ambush, and we'd still have to stop for barricades, hostile locals, etc. and all this requires us to pick up his trail in the first place, which is far from guaranteed.
We can literally follow the trail of shit his horde would leave behind in the tunnels. There also wouldn't be barricades or hostile locals because he'd have smashed through them and killed everyone in his path.
MIGHT be. It was ambiguous. Likely the meaning of the memoir, but not certain. So 1 in 3 chance that #2 is there if that's true. But realistically less than 1 in 3 because it might've been a mistranslation.
No. At least two were there, possibly three. We also basically know that treasure five isn't there, because treasure four is, which means that it's a more than 50% chance.
MIGHT be. It was ambiguous. Likely the meaning of the memoir, but not certain. So 1 in 3 chance that #2 is there if that's true. But realistically less than 1 in 3 because it might've been a mistranslation.
Yeah, the memoirs are kind of unreliable. I looked at some of the old posts about them, there weren't really a lot of specific hints, sadly. Nothing helpful like the indigo leaf one that I saw.
Yeah I've looked back and found it. Hmm, that is interesting. And from the reading, they'd have be non-sequential, so it couldn't be the fifth one, which is the only one of the six unaccounted for other than the second... Welp, I'm going to take a gamble that he is going for them in sequential order:
[X] Blackthorn (0.7x)
TBH @Alratan and @SuperSonicSound I'm pretty perplexed that you two weren't voting for this from the belonging if what you wan to do is catch him rather than wait for him.
EDIT: I got it wrong, there are actually seven treasures, not six.
And I've already refuted this mistake. He can't use vehicles at all in a hub city, as they're stranded uselessly two hundred meters in the air inside a tunnel and can't reach the surface. He has to send his troops down the stairs and through the doors, which we can focus fire on, including artillery after burying the ones we don't want to have to defend. By contrast, he can use vehicles to directly assault the station defences in Indigo Leaf from the inside.
That's literally the exact opposite of what you said earlier. I'm having trouble finding any confidence in your analysis. And even if that's the case, vehicles are not going to get very far in Indigo Leaf with SAWs and the like set up. It's not actually a ROAD through the trees either. And it's a hell of a better chokepoint than the sprawling Blackthorn with its multiple rail lines.
He also has basically the same number of angles of attack against the Hammer's Rest loop as against the Blackthorn loop. He can only approach from two directions rather than three, but that isn't much difference, as we should be able to leave something to watch to see which spur he comes down on.
Yeah but we have local surveillance and communication watching for him. And we have whatever native defenses are already built there. And allies. And a source of reinforcements in Hammer's Rest. It's a vastly better place to engage.
He doesn't need to use a human wave assault for his initial attack to kick down the door in Indigo Leaf, he can use vehicles. He does in Blachthorn.
Again. Literal opposite of what you were saying earlier. And Blackthorn is a much more open city with more ways to apporach and less ways to see him coming. He's got a lot more options for tactics rather than just trying to break through our heavily reinforced door of EM weaponsfire.
We can literally follow the trail of shit his horde would leave behind in the tunnels. There also wouldn't be barricades or hostile locals because he'd have smashed through them and killed everyone in his path.
If we've found him. And we're on the exact same path rather than an alternate/parallel one. What if he just buzzes by and it has the locals spooked? What if he's laying mines/barricades behind him? Any of these things are reasonable possibilities.
No. At least two were there, possibly three. We also basically know that treasure five isn't there, because treasure four is, which means that it's a more than 50% chance.
We're talking about the Gravekeeper. Why do you expect him to follow any rhyme or reason? He could just as easily put two in a row in the same city. Unfounded assumptions lead to bad reasoning, lead to bad decisions, lead to bad outcomes.
I was voting for black thorne initially. For much the same reason i dropped the vote when i couldn't get any traction and basically couldn't be bothered to argue for it with the huge slew of votes for IL early on.
Feeling a bit burned out after being on the wrong side of votes a few times and not really trusting my judgement anymore. Hence the lack of posting for the majority of this after update discussion.
Yeah I've looked back and found it. Hmm, that is interesting. And from the reading, they'd have be non-sequential, so it couldn't be the fifth one, which is the only one of the six unaccounted for other than the second... Welp, I'm going to take a gamble that he is going for them in sequential order:
[X] Blackthorn (0.7x)
TBH @Alratan and @SuperSonicSound I'm pretty perplexed that you two weren't voting for this from the belonging if what you wan to do is catch him rather than wait for him.
Why on Earth would they have to be non-sequential? That wasn't stated anywhere that I recall.
Going to Blackthorn puts us 12,000 KM out of the way, out of healthy Ukko range (they'll be in the shop for a while after making that trip), out of radio contact, away from any friendlies or supply chain, and leaves our only actual information OR military asset that's relevant to this fight undefended.
It gets us the #4 treasure like 80-90% of the time, but leaves us out in the open. The only scenarios where the Biomancer goes to Blakcthorn himself are
1) Treasure #2 is there and he almost certainly gets there before us (Bad for us whether we run into him or not. Either a slaughter or we completely miss him and he heads back to Indigo Leaf)
2) He goes to Indigo Leaf after hitting some other location to get #2, finds out that we shipped out to Blackthorn. We still might miss him on the way back. At best we make a stand against him at a suboptimal location where he has more approaches and we have less resources.
And I really cannot assert enough that IF there is a second treasure in Blackthorn it COULD just as easily be #5 (Perhaps a second step in whatever process is required to get #4. Hard to say).
thread policyThis is a new policy for this thread. Follow it.
1. The Spaghetti posting really needs to stop. It makes reading someone's argument really, really hard, and it makes our job a lot harder.
2. Be mindful of others arguments before you post. Read them carefully. Consider them. Ensure you're actually arguing about what they are posting, and are not misrepresenting them. We'd rather nobody got in any trouble.
3. Just... calm. It's gotten a lot better in the last... dozen or so pages, but I think it needs reiterating.
I find it improbable that Grave keeper put 4 and 5 there. We know that the quest was meant to have back tracking as fetch quests are often do in rpgs.
Putting clues in sequential order for instance 4 and 5 in blackthrone would therefore be contrary to that modus operandi and a little pointless besides because it does nothing to increase the difficulty of the quest and grave keeper did intend this to be hard.
If there are two grave keeper treasures/clues there the assumption would therefore be that they have to treasures that would ordinarily require you to have to go some where else after getting the other.
I find it improbable that Grave keeper put 4 and 5 there. We know that the quest was meant to have back tracking as fetch quests are often do in rpgs.
Putting clues in sequential order for instance 4 and 5 in blackthrone would therefore be contrary to that modus operandi.
If there are two grave keeper treasures/clues there the assumption would therefore be that they have to treasures that would ordinarily require you to have to go some where else after getting the other.
Well, I think that it's quite possible that they're all non-sequential. That would make the most sense, but it's hardly a guarantee (especially when literally everything the Gravekeeper ever does induces facepalms). So I don't think it's safe enough to stake a bet on it.
Moreover, even if it was a straight 50% chance, I don't think it'd be worth giving up the advantages we have here. We'd be out of radio range, we'd be out of air support range, and if it's the location of #2 the Biomancer would probably get there first with his head start. And if it's #5 or 6 and we got there first, the Biomancer showing up would be because he plowed through Indigo Leaf where we could have fought him with better choke points and more allies.
Im pretty much completely certain given the distance to black thorne wed beat him there even if hes going straight there. Given hes going to loot everything in the path and mirande can run things at full speed. Even if we do run into the tail end of his army we also be hitting the side of him that is actually vulnerable.
AN did say their rear is extremely vulnerable after all.
I find it improbable that Grave keeper put 4 and 5 there. We know that the quest was meant to have back tracking as fetch quests are often do in rpgs.
Putting clues that therefore be in sequential for instane 4 and 5 in blackthrone would therefire be contrary to that modus operandi.
If there are two grave keeper treasures/clues there the assumption would therefore be that they have to treasures that would ordinarily require you to have to go some where else after getting the other.
I think we've all been under the impression that there are 7, and the 7th is the Shattersaw bomb. Would be nice to get a clarification, though.
All I can do is mostly say that the 'Dawn Flower' team is misrepresenting our ability to fight on the run dramatically. According to AN, one war rig can literally barrel through a train and keep going afterwards. Considering their mutual speeds would be additive in a collision, if it was our train, we'd be trying to hit an object with a field gun probably a single time before it hits while going a combined 300km/h, or an insane 83m/s. The effects of a rig ramming one of our trains at that speed is roughly equivalent to a high-speed modern train running into a steel slab bolted into the ground. Every single person on that train will be dead, Mirande included, almost instantly. I don't like the odds of possibly rolling against the biomancer's personal rig to break our precog bonus and insta-gibbing ourselves, Mag, and quite possibly Dia, all at the same time.
There are too many risks involved in trying to fight them on the tracks, even if we catch them from behind where(speculatively, and with absolutely no basis in this case) they will have no war rigs to drive directly into our face.
However, a line of sustained cannon fire from field guns and directed howitzers against a rig tunnel charge at the Indigo Leaf station would probably turn much of the rigs into exceedingly heavy scrap that's hard to plow through. If we bait them forward, we could even use a split strategy and use Dia's maneuver leader bonus to flank them by hiding a portion of our force around the far end of the rail we suspect they'll try to enter the Leaf station tunnel through. It creates an effective killbox at least.
@Alratan You'd better fix your post. We were all just warned about spaghettifying quotes.
Shattersaw is the endpoint of the quest, and obviously can only be the endpoint if you have completed everything else. There are six other locations, at least two of which are in the ruins of Blackthorn. It is also obvious that each location is supposed to contain further clues as to where the next location is exactly. Blackthorn is, of course, not where the first locations are. That would be too obvious.
"Here. Meet me here, the enemy already has a head start and we can make a good guess as to where they'll be next. Plus I don't think the people here are the sort we want to let get burnt to the ground and looted," you explain.
"Right. This will take a bit to organize, but I will be there as soon as I can. I'll send an engineering team to help extricate the rest of your team. I guess we shall meet up in a few weeks," your mother says. The rest of the radio window is spent working out the logistics of everything.
The next few days are spent in a flurry of miscellaneous activity with the people of Indigo Leaf and Hammer's Rest as you inform them of what is going on elsewhere. The leadership of Indigo Leaf is noticeably upset over the good deed they did all those years ago of leaving the case alone as per Grave Keeper's request turning them into a target for conquest and genocide. Still, they at least acknowledge that he probably didn't have any of this in mind when he asked them to look out after it for him.
The situation is fortunately kept from being a tense wait with no updates by the Ukkos flying recon and serving as communications couriers/relays. You get an update on the material found where Grave Keeper had left his first treasure/clue and pour over the Memoirs once again in an attempt to figure out where the enemy might be next.
Invigorate
Rolled 47 + 146 = 193
Rolled 30 + 48 + 53 AI = 131
Some information
After about the first week you manage to work out that the next treasure is likely somewhere within two hub cities of Dawn Flower, which lets the Ukkos scout them out, although because of the damage of Starfall that's a slower process than one might initially suspect due to needing to find places to land where the pilots can safely investigate without getting killed by the locals. While fortunate from an intelligence point of view but unfortunate for the people living there, the two settlements that connect directly to Dawn Flower that aren't Owl's Nest have already been sacked.
By your best guess, you are thinking that the second clue has already been recovered and the enemy forces are either going to be headed towards Indigo Leaf or faffing about hitting other nearby settlements while figuring out where to go next. This gave the scouts a chance to refine their searches.
Rolled 90
The GM need not be extra cruel
After about two weeks your mother arrived with a force of a thousand troops in land trains with heavy asset support like mechs and even one of the howitzers, just in case it might be of use. Anna was staying behind to make sure that no one stabbed them in the back while your mother was so far away with a major part of the military. She also brought with her your land train, which was a welcome sight after being away for so long. Angie was noticeably pissed at you, while your two hires were wondering what the hell all of that had been about. Then again, in terms of being able to market the goods you had to offer to set up potential trade deals, having the land train was definitely a boon.
Rolled 52
Rolled 1d5 -> 5
Talks and negotiations and the like went through, with the Ukkos receiving proper basing rights out of Hammer's Rest to range out more effectively over the areas presumed to be where the raiders are travelling in. Unfortunately, if they are sticking to the tunnels the only warning could be when they actually arrive at the cities in danger, so you spend considerable time fortifying things. You also do things like reinforce your mother's wards and begin initial talks towards doing things like tech sharing or the like. You also take the opportunity to use the UAM in your land train and the Paradox Cube to try printing out some very small amounts of psychoreactive material for the purposes of making yourself a new set of divining cards. There's probably further refining you can do, but for now you have other things on your plate.
Oh, and you also begin study of Shadow Upon the Waves under Kebhon's tutelage, which for the moment mostly consists of assuming and holding incredibly awkward poses and maintaining your balance while doing so. Apparently the next step is to be able to transition between these poses arbitrarily. And that this is the basic, easy part.
Invigorate
Rolled 53 + 146 = 199
Rolled 57 + 64 + 53 AI = 174
At which you have been told that, with your enhancements, you have been performing "adequately". With proper dedication to the art you may be able to actually learn the basics within a few years.
Finally though you get a breakthrough when, after five weeks of hunting for clues as to the current location of the enemy forces, your scouts catch a break when they find a hub city on fire. Currently being looted, the plane on hand empties its missile racks into the raiders to try to do what damage they can, but with just one plane loaded for long range recon, there is little that can be done to affect the larger battle. There is however a major point of intelligence that is gathered from the mess, in that more of the fighting force can be seen now... and while they are lacking in discipline and technology, they also have about a dozen big advantages.
At least as tall as your forestry mechs and much broader and longer, they are... well, you wish you could say that you have never seen their like, but the Lord of Change you ate has made these sorts of things before. Misshapen beings given so many mutations that all semblance of order collapses, these spawn are only good for hurling at an enemy to soak up their attacks before tearing them apart in a mindless frenzy. Supplemented by hundreds of mutants like those that you fought and thousands of fanatical humans armed with actual weapons, it makes a potent shock force, and soon enough the pilot can only pull away as the defenders are completely overrun in a matter of hours.
Also, the settlement is thousands of kilometres away from where you expected it to be.
Rolled 29 + 146 = 175
Rolled 35 + 26 Intrigue + 29 Learning + 53 AI = 143
Only one explanation really
"He has a copy of the memoirs. Maybe even someone who was studying them and went out to find them on their own as an adviser. But we've known about Black Thorn for a while now, it was the first one we had any sort of solid lock on. His group was supposed to have been local to the regions near Dawn Flower before he came here. He hit the two areas close to him first and is now headed for the only area he actually knows has more stuff," you explain to the impromptu council of your mother, Director Reno, and Colonel Hammer.
"It makes sense, but that still leaves our population in danger," Hammer states. Looking rather like a barrel stuffed in a uniform, there is still a glint of something dangerous behind his eyes, which you suppose is only fitting for someone who has managed to stay in power through Starfall like he has.
"These mutants... I feel confident fighting them on home turf... for now, but I have agents in Dawn Flower and there are far too few bodies left behind. You reported that you and... Mag... encountered the deployment of drugs?" Your mother asks. She doesn't really approve of the half feral warrior.
"Yes. It appears likely that they have some source of mind altering drug that they combine with indoctrination to produce religious fanaticism among people who in other contexts would be called slaves. I think that supply of this drug is what keeps them from collapsing into in fighting," you explain, leaving out the fact that you pretty much know that something like this is correct from your divinations.
"So they have a two month head start on us and their average speed is... well, even accounting for stopping to raid and indoctrinate and the like, we would still have to go at rash speeds to catch up with them just when they arrive at Black Thorn," your mother states, grinding her teeth in irritation at being caught flat footed like this.
"The thought occurs that we should just allow them to claim these artifacts and only seek out battle should they come into an area we are already prepared for," Hammer points out, and everyone else but you has to at least nod their head in assent to that.
There is certainly logic to that idea, but you have to point out, "Using methodology we have developed since Starfall, we have been able to get a partial scan of the contents of the case we have recovered thanks to the people of Indigo Leaf." That gets Reno's attention. "We believe that there is technology contained within that could have only come from the highest levels of the pre-Starfall government, or possibly from their corporate backers."
That causes silence, before Colonel Hammer says, "So what do you propose we do about this then?"
Argue for...
[] A small commando team air inserted to secure the tech from Black Thorn first (1.2x)
[] Hold your ground here (1x)
[] Fall back to the even better defended Shattersaw (0.5x)
[] Attempt an assassination (1.3x)
