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The Long Night Part One: Embers in the Dusk: A Planetary Governor Quest (43k) Complete Sequel Up

Investigate the Sea?

  • Yes

    Votes: 593 80.4%

  • No

    Votes: 145 19.6%
  • Total voters
    738
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So.. here's the thing about Subtle and Blatant.

Ridcully's scrying and our informational advantage isn't a concrete advantage - As the war goes on, there is an increasing likelyhood that bad or good luck renders it much less useful. An escort destroyed now is an escort that can't appear from nowhere because of changing circumstances. Critical information, on the other hand, can become useless due to the same.

Put simply, we have a Positional Advantage - But that advantage is an immaterial sort. We should be trying to convert those immaterial advantages into concrete facts.
 
nat_401 said:
I really don't want to give the Crusade a reason to say fuck it and pull all the insane aces they have as soon as they can, they may be willing to all die to kill Lin but if they don't think it's necessary they wont throw away what they don't think they have too so will hold back a bit and give us more time to wear them down in space and on the ground and give us more control over any doomsday stunts they have prepared.
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Whatever doomsday stunts they have prepared, if they use them in space.. they're not using them on the ground. Also, Avernus.

In addition, Doomsday stunts aren't going to be used willy-nilly, because they usually have some severe cost that make them a Doomsday stunt.
AlsoSprachOdin said:
More analysing.

They definitely want to attack the void-space over Dis. I want to avoid this, but which approach is more likely to succeed in that?
Plan Subtle approach destroys a substantial amount of their escorts, possibly making them focus their fleets on protecting the transports even more and therefore not attacking void-spaces we defend.
Plan Wreck destroys even more of their escorts, as well as some targets of opportunity, making any battles over Dis slightly less favourable for them, but probably nothing to write home about. But it also tells them that they are being predicted.
Knowing that they are being predicted, the Valinor high command has to wonder: "How long have these bastards been predicting this invasion? How much do they know, and have they already prepared enough for us that they think they can win?" It's gotta make them nervous about this entire war, paranoid, and second guessing if they are doing enough.
Plan Wreck might make the enemy think that they are walking into a trap. But knowing that the Trust is also being attacked by a large Waaagh, and not knowing exactly how much we know, they shouldn't get desperate just yet, just nervous and cautious.
So long as the enemy think they are making progress, they won't try anything drastic, is my impression from what Durin has been telling us. They'll get their troops on the ground, and if we conserve our ground harassment, they should think; "They can predict us, they can harass us, but they can't stop us". Maybe.

That said, in order to maximise their available resources, the enemy will want to move all their ground forces before even thinking about sacrificing their battleships (besides, they have to get their armies in position to take advantage of unfortified breaches from kamikaze attacks).
Then, would they attack the Dis void-space during this wave, or wait until they actually need that void-space? The former lets them apply a larger, less harassed force to that attack, the latter lets them escort their transports with a fleet that hasn't been depleted by a serious battle. I think they'll probably attack, and then retreat when they see that the resistance they're dealing with isn't worth it to them - not yet.
They don't know right now that they'll likely have to kamikaze, and again, they'll have to guard their transports all the closer with their main fleet if they are deprived of enough escorts.
Furthermore, if they kamikaze while their armies still aren't in position, then we can fortify whatever breaches they might score in the meantime.
With plan Subtle, they are all the more likely to underestimate the harassment we'll be able to apply, and therefore to postpone the battle above Dis.

Actually, with the orbital defences and fire support from Dis, Durin says that "there is a decent chance that you will be able to hold the area directly above Dis for a considerable time". A "considerable time" might be until all their troops have been landed. Then they'll have no more use for the fleet besides orbital support or kamikaze, so they have plenty of reason to fight for the void over Dis, and none not to do so.

The enemy is likely to take the void-space over Dis at around the same time whichever option we go with here.
At some point, we probably will have to go Blatant. If that point is early enough, being subtle here will have been for naught.
All of which leaves us with these question: Will that point be reached before or after they're done unloading all their troops? Will we be best served just going full blatant here from the start?
@Durin
How nervous will the enemy become if they figure out that they are being predicted?
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There is no reason whatsoever to postpone the battle above Avernus with either plan, unless they wish to change up their entire plan because it's compromised.

I would also further caution against making assumptions about opponents you wish to fight.
Enjou said:
It's also worth pointing out that we may be able to do more damage over the week with subtle, or at least keep the casualty rates on our side lower - if they figure out we've predicted them early on in their week long advance towards Avernus, then they may just stop their predictable and easier to pick off patrols, change their routes up, or just move all their forces into a big ball to force any harassing forces to engage a larger and more dangerous fleet.
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This is.. disingenious. The difference is bonii from Subtle and Blatant is +100 per QM, or based on the combat mechanics, twice as much casualties inflicted, (half casualties taken?)

If for some reason they stop their progress to Avernus and change their patrols - Hello mass confusion, also hello Ridcully getting those new plans. Hello, to more harassmant during that disorganization phase. It'll hurt, a lot.
 
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Shard said:
Ridcully's scrying and our informational advantage isn't a concrete advantage - As the war goes on, there is an increasing likelyhood that bad or good luck renders it much less useful. An escort destroyed now is an escort that can't appear from nowhere because of changing circumstances. Critical information, on the other hand, can become useless due to the same.
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The escorts aren't important besides their preventing us from making better ambushes against battleships and transports. Thin out escorts now, allowing us to later make blatant use of predictions against targets that actually matter.

Shard said:
no reason whatsoever
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I think I wrote several reasons. What reasons do they have for taking the void-space over Dis right now, that I have overlooked?
Shard said:
caution against making assumptions
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Any assumptions in particular?
Shard said:
If for some reason they stop their progress to Avernus and change their patrols - Hello mass confusion
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What was that about assumptions? That the enemy hasn't drilled formation changes?
 
Shard said:
This is.. disingenious. The difference is bonii from Subtle and Blatant is +100 per QM, or based on the combat mechanics, twice as much casualties inflicted, (half casualties taken?)

If for some reason they stop their progress to Avernus and change their patrols - Hello mass confusion, also hello Ridcully getting those new plans. Hello, to more harassmant during that disorganization phase. It'll hurt, a lot.
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I didn't actually see that bit on the bonus. However, I never said they'd stop their progress to Avernus. Also, given the discipline of Abomination forces I doubt there'd be the kind of mass confusion you're thinking - changing up patrol routes, or just stopping patrols and hunkering together, is not a complicated change.

That said the +100 bonus is probably worth it.

[X] Plan Wreck the Fleet
Adhoc vote count started by Enjou on Dec 8, 2017 at 10:03 PM, finished with 167 posts and 34 votes.
  • [X] Plan Subtle Ambush
    -[X] Medium- use everything but your armored warships to inflict as much damage as possible via ambushes and harassment tactics, be willing to accept some major clashes- This will inflict a significant amount of damage and not need Admiral Sarnow to be too blatant about using the information that Ridcully is providing him.
    -[X] Light Forces- The Light forces will be those that are trying to seek out your ambushes, and so will be the easiest targets. - Attacking the Light forces will be the easiest option and will reduce the Abomination Fleets ablity to deal with future harassment.
    -[X] Make subtle of the information that Ridcully has gained form the enemies plans- Medium bonus and small chance of them realising you have the plans.
    [X] Plan Wreck the Fleet
    [X] Medium- use everything but your armored warships to inflict as much damage as possible via ambushes and harassment tactics, be willing to accept some major clashes- This will inflict a significant amount of damage and not need Admiral Sarnow to be too blatant about using the information that Ridcully is providing him.
    [X] Make blatant of the information that Ridcully has gained form the enemies plans- Massive bonus and certain chance of them realising you have the plans.
    [X] Primary: Light Forces- The Light forces will be those that are trying to seek out your ambushes, and so will be the easiest targets. - Attacking the Light forces will be the easiest option and will reduce the Abomination Fleets ablity to deal with future harassment.
    [X] Secondary: Targets of Opportunity - Try to cause as much damage as possible to the Abomination's overall navy, at the best possible casualty ratios.
    [X] Plan: Priorities
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Adhoc vote count started by Enjou on Dec 8, 2017 at 10:03 PM, finished with 167 posts and 34 votes.
  • [X] Plan Subtle Ambush
    -[X] Medium- use everything but your armored warships to inflict as much damage as possible via ambushes and harassment tactics, be willing to accept some major clashes- This will inflict a significant amount of damage and not need Admiral Sarnow to be too blatant about using the information that Ridcully is providing him.
    -[X] Light Forces- The Light forces will be those that are trying to seek out your ambushes, and so will be the easiest targets. - Attacking the Light forces will be the easiest option and will reduce the Abomination Fleets ablity to deal with future harassment.
    -[X] Make subtle of the information that Ridcully has gained form the enemies plans- Medium bonus and small chance of them realising you have the plans.
    [X] Plan Wreck the Fleet
    [X] Medium- use everything but your armored warships to inflict as much damage as possible via ambushes and harassment tactics, be willing to accept some major clashes- This will inflict a significant amount of damage and not need Admiral Sarnow to be too blatant about using the information that Ridcully is providing him.
    [X] Primary: Light Forces- The Light forces will be those that are trying to seek out your ambushes, and so will be the easiest targets. - Attacking the Light forces will be the easiest option and will reduce the Abomination Fleets ablity to deal with future harassment.
    [X] Secondary: Targets of Opportunity - Try to cause as much damage as possible to the Abomination's overall navy, at the best possible casualty ratios.
    [X] Make blatant of the information that Ridcully has gained form the enemies plans- Massive bonus and certain chance of them realising you have the plans.
    [X] Plan: Priorities
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@Durin
1 can we reclaim the hulls of demonships?
2 do we know what they will do if they know we I know there plans?
3 have you rolled if Syr survives yet?
 
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I really, really doubt trying to reclaim the ships short of melting them down would be at all cost effective. Memetic hazards left and right, corruption sinking into the material itself, and inferior baseline technology all make it a poor option.

Besides, we traded for the knowledge of how to make battle barge alloys. It'll just take a bit more time before the first batch is ready, as it takes like a century to produce.
 
[X] Plan Wreck the Fleet

I think I'll go with this one, even if it might not win.


Nurgle said:
The hulls of battlebarges is strong enough to survive reactors breach.
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Okay, the super dense alloy might still be worth the manpower required for a purification, and maybe any unique tech stuff on their ships, and probably anything that's really easily accessed can be purified and used to supplement our supplies shortages, but apparently getting everything comprehensively isn't worth it.
Also we'd have to melt the superdense alloy down again to form it into the pattern used on our battle barges, remember that a big chunk of the effectiveness of Urd pattern armor is in the forming and ancillary systems.
 
thatguy said:
do you really want to be anything other than paranoid about sorcery while facing the servants of the god of sorcery?
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Well it a bit late for that now, innit?

And these votes for Plan Wreck... ah screw it, it's probably not going to make any difference. Or at least, lets hope it won't. I still think you guys are being impatient and getting distracted from the larger picture by the pretty bonuses.
Yes, that's the plural form.
 
Dynamesmouse said:
If I were Tzeentch at this point, I would take all my portal napped psykers to the Vanaheim orbitals, and basically preform a ritual that awakens all the sleeping psykers in Vanaheim.

Freya, our wife, had Cursed Blood. Considering that she was Olaf's niece, I'm going to assume that Cursed Blood is common enough that the Vanir do not consider it a mark of shame. Because of this, I believe that there's large numbers of Vanir who have not yet awakened. Keep in mind that they all have to be given the Emperor's Mercy as there is not a Telepathica Branch ready to teach and safeguard them.

However, a two front war is going to stretch the Trust thin. Chaos loves attacking the weak, and Tzeentchian forces can be patient when they need to be. They have a super weapon that they are very carefully guarding. I think that they are going to see an opportunity to attack the Trust, Vanaheim in particular.

Large numbers of Heretical Avernite Psykers + Large numbers of Unawakened Vanir + Tzeentchian Super Weapon = MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF HERESY!

The scenario is thus: All the Tzeentchian psykers reveal themselves and cause an Incursion in the Vanir high society. Once order is destabilized, the psykers will preform the awakening ritual. Large numbers of as yet un-heretical Vanir awaken their powers, and before any order can be established, the Tzeentchian fleet invades with their fleet and super weapon.

Then, the heretics offer the awakened an ultimatum: Join Chaos, and win both Tzeentch's favor and your right to life; or die if Vanaheim re-establishes order, where they then force onto you the Emperor's "Mercy". Keep in mind that this choice is a lot harder to make in the middle of a major Incursion, where even if it is suppressed, you know they will force the Emperor's Mercy onto you.

What are the requirements for getting a new Telepathica Branch? Is it just Delta+ Master Primaris?
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After which point things swing the other way again and our enemies either take advantage of the presence of Avernite psykers to drive a wedge into the Trust, or use the Tzeentchian invasion to provoke Abomination corruption through fear of change/people resorting to fanaticism to keep going.
Yet another aggravating thing about fighting Chaos is that they have so many opposed options to corrupt people that standing in opposition to one type of corruption can send you towards another type.
 
thatguy said:
Actually some questions for @Durin, on account of needing to come up with counters to them just ramming our cities with ships while we can't do anything about it.
1. Can ships be knocked off course, to miss target cities, by telepathically messing with some of the bridge crew at a critical moment?
2. Could Ophelia or a telekinesis choir telekinetically knock a falling ship sideways, so it misses a city?
3. It's possible to overload plasma reactors with pyromancy, it's possible to teleport psykers just outside a ship next to the hull, instead of sending Telepaths to mess with the crew would sending Pyromancers to mess with the reactors work? Or technomancers?
(Please say yes, I'm imagining 40K boarding actions getting even more bizzare and metal as psykers and the troops sent to guard them sit on the outside of the hull trying to mess up the ship, and the crew send waves of void infantry and tanks across the surface of the hull to stop them)
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@Durin I think you missed these and it'd be nice to know the answers, also new question:

4. Where do they plan to land with their current plans?
 
Wreck the fleet is winning by one
Adhoc vote count started by Nurgle on Dec 8, 2017 at 10:17 PM, finished with 169 posts and 34 votes.
  • [X] Plan Subtle Ambush
    -[X] Medium- use everything but your armored warships to inflict as much damage as possible via ambushes and harassment tactics, be willing to accept some major clashes- This will inflict a significant amount of damage and not need Admiral Sarnow to be too blatant about using the information that Ridcully is providing him.
    -[X] Light Forces- The Light forces will be those that are trying to seek out your ambushes, and so will be the easiest targets. - Attacking the Light forces will be the easiest option and will reduce the Abomination Fleets ablity to deal with future harassment.
    -[X] Make subtle of the information that Ridcully has gained form the enemies plans- Medium bonus and small chance of them realising you have the plans.
    [X] Plan Wreck the Fleet
    [X] Plan Wreck the Fleet
    [X] Medium- use everything but your armored warships to inflict as much damage as possible via ambushes and harassment tactics, be willing to accept some major clashes- This will inflict a significant amount of damage and not need Admiral Sarnow to be too blatant about using the information that Ridcully is providing him.
    [X] Primary: Light Forces- The Light forces will be those that are trying to seek out your ambushes, and so will be the easiest targets. - Attacking the Light forces will be the easiest option and will reduce the Abomination Fleets ablity to deal with future harassment.
    [X] Secondary: Targets of Opportunity - Try to cause as much damage as possible to the Abomination's overall navy, at the best possible casualty ratios.
    [X] Make blatant of the information that Ridcully has gained form the enemies plans- Massive bonus and certain chance of them realising you have the plans.
    [X] Plan: Priorities
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Guys, what's the logic in Wreck the Fleet using medium harrassment AND making it blatant that we know the info?

Wouldn't it be more effective since we're going all-in to just... Hit them super hard? Is it just to hold back on using everything we've got?
 
[X] Plan Subtle Ambush
-[X] Medium- use everything but your armored warships to inflict as much damage as possible via ambushes and harassment tactics, be willing to accept some major clashes- This will inflict a significant amount of damage and not need Admiral Sarnow to be too blatant about using the information that Ridcully is providing him.
-[X] Light Forces- The Light forces will be those that are trying to seek out your ambushes, and so will be the easiest targets. - Attacking the Light forces will be the easiest option and will reduce the Abomination Fleets ablity to deal with future harassment.
-[X] Make subtle of the information that Ridcully has gained form the enemies plans- Medium bonus and small chance of them realising you have the plans.

Gotta make sure these guys land so that the REAL FUN begins!
 
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