1. It is better for some things. Not for avoiding the lower tail of results (excluding nat 1s).
2. To about the same effect as seer gwen helping a regular strategist, but with fewer perks and a lower bonus.
You've made other points, but these two are so egregiously wrong that I feel I should address them in their own post first.
First, regarding number 2.... there you go, comparing two crew members to one crew member. This remains an absurd and irrelevant comparison. If our seer is helping our strategist, then they're
not improving a different roll. If our strategist is ALSO a seer, they apply their own reroll with bonus to both sides of the Bo2.
1. ...Nope! Just, no, this is wrong. I used anyDice to make a table of level 10 Strategist-Gwen versus a Man of Iron, their chances for every individual roll result.
Then, I tried to do that for level 10 Seer - but had trouble, because anydice only shows two decimal places so the lowest results got really wonky, especially when I had to manually calculate out the probability space for what happens when your man of iron rolls a 1, since that overrides mod and would kick it over to Seer!Gwen's 1d100.
Also, for Team Strategist (Strategist Gwen + Eldar Farseer), I made the farseer level 7 instead of level 10 to simulate lower growth, and assumed their strength as a diviner is identical to seer gwen otherwise. Both of these are assumptions in your favor - eldar are more psychically powerful than humans, and the eldar seer would start at level 4 while gwen started at level 0, and we don't know that the eldar seer will grow slower in the first place.
And also in the same mechanics spitball Neablis said that he might make eldar level slower, he said that they would also have higher flat bonuses.
Eldar in general might need some rejiggering as far as the system works, I might give them higher flat bonuses but they level slower or something. Don't hold me to that.
So I'm literally just taking the downside without the upside here from it, just to give your preferred picks a better advantage.
Also in your favor for the team fight, there is no attempt to compensate for how AnyDice does not make a nat100 override the mod,
except in the calculation for nat100 chance itself - by accepting your premise that the thing Neablis said he MIGHT do (make eldar grow slower), I've put myself at a handicap!
You know, besides the handicap of assuming that the eldar seer who is trained to work with other diviners including on strategy will somehow not be able to work with Gwen on strategy.
Let's see how they do! Winners in bold.
| Bracket | Test | Criteria | Strategist Gwen | Man of Iron | Team Strategist | Team Seer |
| Failure | roll <= 15 | Lower is better | 0.25 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.16428571 |
| >= Poor Success | roll > 15 | Higher is better | 99.75 | 99 | 99.89 | 100.625714* |
| >= Success | roll > 35 | Higher is better | 93.75 | 85 | 97.34 | 95.24 |
| >= Good Success | roll > 65 | Higher is better | 69.75 | 55 | 78.35 | 70.64 |
| >= Crit Success | roll > 90 | Higher is better | 36 | 30 | 38.33 | 36.39 |
| = nat 100 | nat roll = 100 | Higher is better | 1.99 | 1 | 2.97 | 1.99 |
| MoI-exclusives | roll >110 | Higher is better | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
*The team calcs got weird because anydice only gave me 2 decimal points of precision for putting together my probability space table. Team Seer obviously does not have an above 100% chance of rolling a poor success or better. Ergo, the last two columns have a small margin of error, save for the nat 100 and Man of Iron-exclusives, which were calculated differently.
So, uh, yeah. That's a fucking blow-out. Nevermind apples to applies comparisons, Team Seer is never more than 2 percentage points better than Strategist Gwen
on her own.
And remember - team seer will sometimes have the seer be used on something other than the military roll, so it would default back to our ideal super-strategist, a literal Man of Iron AI, who is smoked in every possible category
except the 10% corner case where he rolls above 110... but anything above a modded 100 roll that isn't a nat100 is a marginal improvement to the actual narrative outcome.
And you're not advocating for getting an ideal non-diviner strategist. You're arguing for picking up a common strategist, because that's your argument for why Team Seer was even valid to compare to strategist gwen in the first place:
Because there are plenty of strategists in 40k so we can get one fast.
But if you want a strategist that is
better than the competition's strategists, you have to try harder than that, and then we spend more time at the mercy of the dice for whether or not we lose territory, lose staff, lose Cia on a mission gone bad, or have our technology stolen - even if assigned to every military action we take, Neablis confirmed your seer cannot help us when WE are the ones being attacked until... you seem to estimate level 20.
On the matter of stats, there is no arguing this. Strategist Gwen + Eldar Seer is a superior load-out to Seer Gwen + an ideal non-diviner strategist. If I didn't lowball my picks and highball your picks, strategist gwen alone would just be outright superior to seer gwen + strategist monofocusing on military,
in military!
A dedicated strategist can have other soft factors, this is true. But they are not enough to overcome our seer having to compensate for their weakness in direct military rolls instead of boosting the rest of our turn.
You would sacrifice the speed of our growth and our overall potential for... I'm not even sure what. Studying loot is more RP efficient than doing research without loot, and you get loot through military success. Our preparedness for future military conflict can be undermined by our technology being stolen, something consistent military successes are needed to stop. And if our seer is compensating for our normie strategist's failings, that seer isn't boosting our research and diplomacy. They can cover for the worst roll of multiple dice at level 10,
but only one roll actually gets improved.
Why settle for something so mediocre?
Why do we want to settle for anything less than the best crew we can get again?
Just vote [X][Gwendolyn] Strategist - it is better in the short term by your admission, and is better in the long term too according to my stats.
