No, we do not. Same principle.
This is predominantly Dresden Files with some other stuff mixed in to fill in the blanks. I'm not going to get the quote but DP told us as much before. Unfounded concerns actually are just straight paranoia. I'm talking about characters, factions and variables we know are active in setting not random characters from Exalted lore like the Ebon Dragon. Not similar at all.
And I am pointedly leaving out my strong belief that under the Ruler(tm) Denarians almost certainly flat out cannot enter our realm, same as the Swords can't, because Swords are a direct counter to Denarians, and if the Sword isn't allowed to enter the same realm as a Denarian can, then they can't be a counter to Denarian (note that Michael was allowed to take the Sword to a Yomi hell, so this isn't an issue with it being hell).
This is a pretty good point actually. Not that a Denarian needs to have their Coin on them at all times but without the Coin they'd only have the shadow and whatever power they keep. This may actually be accurate.
For the "they will have backing and won't be acting alone" - it's a 3 meter diameter portal. That's the only point of ingress. I have actually
ran the numbers, you know? We know the intensity of Outer Gate conflict. A very conservative estimation of our military strength allows us to mount a better defense against a 3 meter portal than the defense that is sufficient to hold Outer Gates. This estimation does not take into account Molly's direct efforts, ie Exalted craft, specifically made spirits, perfect effects, etc.
Things get past the Outer Gates which is why Rashid needs to check over people. Besides Winter and Summer and the Gatekeeper actually know how to fight Outsiders and have specific tools for it. Our people back in the tunnels of Las Vegas were useless for it which is notable since the Reds employ Outsiders. As well as them being so resistant to magic in general. Without having us look into mass producible anti Outsider means we should expect them to do worse under similar circumstances.
This is kind of digressing from the point though. As I said to Azais earlier and to you recently, I'm not concerned about the Reds in a general sense here. I don't think they can threaten the five courts in its entirety or something, which I also made known back then.
However they have enslaved deities as well as whatever method(s) they used to get them into that position in the first place. The portal is in South America which is presumably where they'd be kept (Red Court base of power) and seeing as they're tied to the land it's plausible that they weren't employed in canon onscreen against the WC but were in Quest and could be used here for this.
Both because they're limited to South America and because they had other methods that they were more willing to use which didn't put their divine food supply at risk. Such as the bloodline curse which Harry used to wipe them out.
No I don't know how such characters would be modeled mechanically speaking. My concern has always been that things would happen regarding the portal that would require prime!Molly's attention which is why I keep saying "cause issues for us" rather than "threaten the FFC". As I said before the thing that bothers me the most is when the PC has to drop whatever it is they're doing to address something they themselves brought about. I can't imagine why say the breach getting attacked with enslaved deities wouldn't require our attention.
Unless you are postulating that a qualitatively more intense and dangerous attack on our portal is likely within the next month than the usual level of intensity of the assault on the Outer Gates by Outsider forces, I don't think I have to worry.
My claim is: someone will need both a scene-long perfect defense, and a scene-long always-on perfect non-elemental attack effect with infinite damage to pass through a defense we can assemble quickly. Or an ability to completely bypass all defenses, ie a true OCP. Increasing the numbers of mooks will not be helpful in breaching the defenses.
Or the breach gets stormed with leashed gods and whatever abilities they have at their disposal. I don't believe the ceiling is as high as you think it is to be a concern that warrants Molly's attention. Like, if any of our people get snatched in the defense of the breach are we not going to circle back to get them?
I will take a rebuttal, but I will take it with numbers, because so far, and pardon me, all I am hearing is are meaningless and non-actionable qualitative statements "he won't be alone", "he can punch above his class", "they are good with prep", etc. Run an estimation. Game it out. Show me how large of a dice pool someone has to have to breach a reasonable estimation of our defenses. Show me an example of an effect that will easily bypass everything we can prepare in the next month or so. So far it looks (to me, perhaps I am unfair here) that I am the only one who did at least something like this, and this is deeply frustrating, because I don't see points I can meaningfully debate. All I see are repeated theses of "we don't have perfect knowledge of the whole setting, therefor danger" (again, I apologize if this summation is too lacking in detail).
Non-actionable qualitative statements?
My issue was making a portal there without answering some of these questions with the Crown so we can do an actual risk assement. Unknown unknowns aren't a non-actionable issue for us because we have the Crown. Red Court foci aren't rare by any means. The problem is we need to use it beforehand. Of course it was time sensitive so that wasn't feasible in the moment but failing that since the danger level couldn't be ascertained and anything beyond a certain point would require Molly's time, which is what I have an issue with, I'd much rather have not.
It's not possible to provide relevant numbers of the enemy units because neither of us are modeling the characters. For that matter I don't know what relevant abilities a subverted pantheon would even have or what relevant abilities Rampires could get by eating them. Building entirely theoretical assessments of enemy dice numbers and abilities on
so little data, is not only counterproductive but it's a waste of time.
The only time it maybe isn't is when you have literally no other choice. The solution here was to simply use the Crown, as we have done, to get those critical puzzle pieces and context before making the risk assessment.
That seems entirely reasonable to me.
And yes I'm also saying that running all those numbers as you did while missing such data, while useful for a measure of our own capabilities, may very well have painted an inaccurate picture of the scenario as you lacked parts of the equation.
Generally speaking it's best to do a risk assessment for an action that can't be easily undone and will have an impact on people under your banner
after you get the relevant information and variables. That way you can actually factor them in. Unless you don't believe you can
afford to (we were at no risk however and the god wasn't going to be a RC asset any longer) then you make a gamble using what you do have. Which is what you did when you started crunching numbers.
The argument about other factions is also duplicitous, because we are also not alone. It assigns full freedom to act with arbitrary resources to enemy factions without acknowledging that they too have enemies of their own, we are not their only concern, and in many cases not the biggest concern even. I fully expect that in the event of a massed and significant enough assault on the portal, Knights of the Cross will be dispatched to help us. For Odin's intelligence agency to notice the amassing of resources and personnel and to warn us, free of charge. For White Council to alpha-strike the rhampire base with Blackstuff and Tunguska 2.0 before they can act. For an outsider war party to just be eaten by Maeve's forces deep in the Ways of NeverNever. Etc
You are literally doing what your accusing me of doing but with our allies. For example you don't know how busy the WC will be after this and the Knights of the Cross are unreliable as seen in Vegas operating on "mysterious ways".
This plan vote, the contention was between "deal with Peabody and co first, then do baby wizards" or "do baby wizards first, then do Peabody". Guess what
won
Seemingly pointless snipe.
We talked about it multiple times before and after then for many pages. Not just that vote. I'm not sure what your trying to say here as Acolyte was saying that we didn't go for it earlier because the thread was scared of tackling the plotline. For that specific vote though IIRC the motive for doing one before the other was, more down time after Boston which came after
Vegas, and use our meeting with the junior Wardens to help us with the Peabody plotline next turn to have an easier time of it.
I myself was always advocating for Molly to handle it personally as opposed to what some other people were saying, to hand the Grey Council a list of Crown derived information and leave it at that because they didn't perceive Peabody and co as a credible threat. One valid concern I had expressed was that they may not believe the 18 years old Hell Queen over people that they've fought and bled with for countless years and the fact that we'd want a good cover for such Crown derived information provided.
That's not fear that's sensible caution.
This is why I was fine and voted to handle the plotline this turn when we took Tina out and Peabody and co started doing shit. They'd have to believe us because the guy and his cultist were about to act against them as the jig was up.
And thankfully we didn't just hand them Crown derived information and leave them to it as their plan for being caught was to start a wizard civil war using trusted people.