Green Flame Rising (Exalted vs Dresden Files)

uju32 said:

Dude, we are currently in a time critical situation. There is 30 minutes before a mass murder event starts.
Every minute now counts. Even the travel time to get to Club Xanadu matters; if we travel with the rest of the party, we are cutting our time from 30 minutes to 20 minutes.

Emergency response has no time to observe the niceties. Apologize later.



No it isnt.
Last time we used ATP, it actually apparently worked on the Archive.
And on the majority of the Fae at Avalon. Id trust it here.

Again, do recall that if they are going to bomb this place, they have had it on surveillance for days, if not weeks.
We do not want to arrive openly.

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Don't put us in positio where friendly fire is a near guarantee. ATP depends on a roll, it's effectiveness is variable. And we're going to be doing distressing stuff, so it stops being near absolute even with a good roll.

We are liable to be seen as an enemy by the forces protecting the club. If, and when the attack starts, there's going to be panic and confusion. By not communicating with Silk at all, you are denying us assets, and setting us up for a needless confrontation, whatever couple of minutes you win with this, you lose in the ensuing panic and crossfire.

uju32 said:

No it isnt.
Silk has connections with one Rampire.
Thats it; according to her DFRPG char sheet, it helps her control her power(s).

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That's what I said.
A mage and a Rampire.

Since Sandra has been using mortal minions for the most parts, that should be enough.
She hasn't exactly shown a great quality of goons so far.

Yog said:

Don't put us in positio where friendly fire is a near guarantee. ATP depends on a roll, it's effectiveness is variable. And we're going to be doing distressing stuff, so it stops being near absolute even with a good roll.

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Cannot be helped.
I do not want to communicate with Silk blind.

I am not philosophically opposed to talking to Silk.
But we havent met her or her crew,vetted them or looked them over with magic. We dont know if she let Sandra slip into her head the way Little Tommy did, or if any of her trusted staff or regulars is a fine thrall of some sort.

Someone let the first arson happen. Someone let the VX bomb/device onto the premises.

The fact that she has unknown ties to a Red Court vampire, after we know that most, if not all of the current Red Court presence got hammered by the (alleged) death curse of Orpheus makes her mental state a question mark.
Call blind, and you could set off the attack you are trying to prevent.

This has all the fingerprints of a long-planned attack , and Sandra has been distressingly thorough about subverting key elements of this city's human infrastructure.
Im not inclined to extend blind trust to anyone we dont know.

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Yog said:

We are liable to be seen as an enemy by the forces protecting the club. If, and when the attack starts, there's going to be panic and confusion. By not communicating with Silk at all, you are denying us assets, and setting us up for a needless confrontation, whatever couple of minutes you win with this, you lose in the ensuing panic and crossfire.

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Its a fetish club, not an armed outpost or even a temple to a goddess of war.
There's going to be security, but it will be security, not "forces protecting the club." She's a mage who runs a club, not a Mafia sub-boss running a short platoon of hardened, if mortal killers like Little Tommy.


Regardless, whether or not to alert Silk is something Molly needs to decide when she sees the woman eye to eye and can read her. Not something to do over the phone when 10-20 minutes drive away.
We explicitly avoided calling her over the phone because we needed to make a personal assessment of her face to face.

Thats why its not in my plan.

Artemis1992 said:

That's what I said. A mage and a Rampire.

Since Sandra has been using mortal minions for the most parts, that should be enough.
She hasn't exactly shown a great quality of goons so far.

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Little Tommy wasnt strictly speaking mortal though, and demonstrates that Sandra CAN enthrall at least some unwilling supernaturals.


And critically, nobody at Silk's club here have any way of telling offhand who has been enthralled and who hasnt.
Arlene Ghorbani couldnt tell that Little Tommy had been whammied until his Manchurian programming activated, and she was in the local heart of her patron's power at the time. Dresden himself needs to use the Sight to tell.

Id bet dollars to donuts there's someone in the club staff thats working for Sandra, willing or not.
And an evacuation attempt will simply lead to them setting off the VX bomb.


Im not willing to bet the lives of the people there on Silk's counterespionage competency, or lack of it; for all we know, she is herself a potential mindwhammy target.
Nevermind giving Daedalus the political ammunition to come inconvenience our lives in the future.

Votes are tied.

@DragonParadox 7 of the votes are for the updated Yog plan for some reason the forum is counting the name votes under the initial plan.

Edit: can't count 6

uju32 said:

Cannot be helped.
I do not want to communicate with Silk blind.

I am not philosophically opposed to talking to Silk.
But we havent met her or her crew,vetted them or looked them over with magic. We dont know if she let Sandra slip into her head the way Little Tommy did, or if any of her trusted staff or regulars is a fine thrall of some sort.

Someone let the first arson happen. Someone let the VX bomb/device onto the premises.

The fact that she has unknown ties to a Red Court vampire, after we know that most, if not all of the current Red Court presence got hammered by the (alleged) death curse of Orpheus makes her mental state a question mark.
Call blind, and you could set off the attack you are trying to prevent.

This has all the fingerprints of a long-planned attack , and Sandra has been distressingly thorough about subverting key elements of this city's human infrastructure.
Im not inclined to extend blind trust to anyone we dont know.

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I very heavily dislike the inconsistency. Previously we have warned the cult of Ra Descending about the infiltration by a blampire. That situation was similar to this one, but in almost all respects we had less reasons to inform them:
1) We knew less of the cult. At least some information we had (the timing of their arrival) could be interpreteted as them working with Sandra
2) They are a cult, which is worse than an entertainment venue / club / meeting ground
3) The blampire attack was to be an infiltration, unlike the current situation, which is explicitely aimed to be a mass causality event
4) The attack on club Xanadu is more immediate than the vampire's actions at that time
5) We only had a secretary / low ranked flunkie on the phone, unlike current situation, where we can have the boss on the phone directly

The same calculus as then applies here and now. The main priority here, I feel, is saving lives, and to maximize life saving, we need to inform Silk.

Yog said:

I very heavily dislike the inconsistency. Previously we have warned the cult of Ra Descending about the infiltration by a blampire. That situation was similar to this one, but in almost all respects we had less reasons to inform them:
1) We knew less of the cult. At least some information we had (the timing of their arrival) could be interpreteted as them working with Sandra
2) They are a cult, which is worse than an entertainment venue / club / meeting ground
3) The blampire attack was to be an infiltration, unlike the current situation, which is explicitely aimed to be a mass causality event
4) The attack on club Xanadu is more immediate than the vampire's actions at that time
5) We only had a secretary / low ranked flunkie on the phone, unlike current situation, where we can have the boss on the phone directly

The same calculus as then applies here and now. The main priority here, I feel, is saving lives, and to maximize life saving, we need to inform Silk.

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Its NOT inconsistency.
We warned the Ra cult they were at risk of being robbed by a Blampire; Cobbler didnt want a big fight, and explicitly didnt want to run into Adkins. And the Ra cult are new to the city, so Sandra has not had time to work on them.

If the situation was flipped? If the Cult of Ra Descending were in Silk's place, had been running a public club and had a nerve gas bomb on their premises to cause a mass casualty event? I wouldnt have said shit to them either until we met the leader and members ourselves, and for much the same reason: mind-whammied sleeper agents.

Its not unreasonable paranoia when they have repeatedly demonstrated the capability.
Literally subverted the entire Shadowkiller organization, from the boss down.

Degorium said:

@DragonParadox 7 of the votes are for the updated Yog plan for some reason the forum is counting the name votes under the initial plan.

Edit: can't count 6

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Oh, I see. I'm going to leave it up for another hour then since conversation is ongoing then close it

uju32 said:

Its NOT inconsistency.
We warned the Ra cult they were at risk of being robbed by a Blampire; Cobbler didnt want a big fight, and explicitly didnt want to run into Adkins. And the Ra cult are new to the city, so Sandra has not had time to work on them.

If the situation was flipped? If the Cult of Ra Descending were in Silk's place, had been running a public club and had a nerve gas bomb on their premises to cause a mass casualty event? I wouldnt have said shit to them either until we met the leader and members ourselves, and for much the same reason: mind-whammied sleeper agents.

Its not unreasonable paranoia when they have repeatedly demonstrated the capability.
Literally subverted the entire Shadowkiller organization, from the boss down.

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But it is inconsistency. We want to prevent mass causality events. We had less reason to care about whatever might be stolen by the blampire at the time we called the cult.

And "And the Ra cult are new to the city, so Sandra has not had time to work on them." is bad logic. They arrived near-simmultaneously, something that has been pointed out in the text and discussion by that time. One possible interpretation was that their arrival was connected (which turned out to be true) because they were working together (which turned out to be false, but which we didn't know back then).

uju32 said:

Little Tommy wasnt strictly speaking mortal though, and demonstrates that Sandra CAN enthrall at least some unwilling supernaturals.


And critically, nobody at Silk's club here have any way of telling offhand who has been enthralled and who hasnt.
Arlene Ghorbani couldnt tell that Little Tommy had been whammied until his Manchurian programming activated, and she was in the local heart of her patron's power at the time. Dresden himself needs to use the Sight to tell.

Id bet dollars to donuts there's someone in the club staff thats working for Sandra, willing or not.
And an evacuation attempt will simply lead to them setting off the VX bomb.


Im not willing to bet the lives of the people there on Silk's counterespionage competency, or lack of it; for all we know, she is herself a potential mindwhammy target.
Nevermind giving Daedalus the political ammunition to come inconvenience our lives in the future.

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Silk is a mind-mage herself, she should be a hard target for that kind of thing.

And generally speaking, if it were that easy to make a successful chemical terrorist attack, it would happen more often.
Most of the time it seems like the homemade poisons don't work as well as intended, to much or too little air around, things go wrong in some way and in the end you have a few dead and some more injured, but not the intended massacre.

Keep in mind this was made by a nihilistic student, not a professional.

And speeding up the plot in response to an evacuation makes it much more likely for such a failure to happen.

[X] Yog

[X] uju32

uju32 said:

Its NOT inconsistency.
We warned the Ra cult they were at risk of being robbed by a Blampire; Cobbler didnt want a big fight, and explicitly didnt want to run into Adkins. And the Ra cult are new to the city, so Sandra has not had time to work on them.

If the situation was flipped? If the Cult of Ra Descending were in Silk's place, had been running a public club and had a nerve gas bomb on their premises to cause a mass casualty event? I wouldnt have said shit to them either until we met the leader and members ourselves, and for much the same reason: mind-whammied sleeper agents.

Its not unreasonable paranoia when they have repeatedly demonstrated the capability.
Literally subverted the entire Shadowkiller organization, from the boss down.

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I don't understand why you're so insistent on without warning busting into a Wizard's place. Even if they are primarily a mind wizard walking into a Wizard's place of power without telling them is a good way for bad things to immediately happen. Never mind the chances of immediate Friendly Fire because we are somewhere were not supposed to be. Never mind the fact there might be wards that can directly detect our presence even through anonymity through propriety. What makes you think busting into someone's place of business without telling them is a good idea?

[X] uju32

Yog said:

But it is inconsistency. We want to prevent mass causality events. We had less reason to care about whatever might be stolen by the blampire at the time we called the cult.

And "And the Ra cult are new to the city, so Sandra has not had time to work on them." is bad logic. They arrived near-simmultaneously, something that has been pointed out in the text and discussion by that time. One possible interpretation was that their arrival was connected (which turned out to be true) because they were working together (which turned out to be false, but which we didn't know back then).

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No, its not.
We just did the bare minimum to put roadblocks in Cobbler's way. If we had been aware there was more at stake we wouldnt have just talked to the secretary.

I mean, do you think we would have left a matter that concerned two Solaroid Exaltations to a secretary message?

No, you are misremembering.
The Cult of Ra Descending are explicitly new, unlike Sandra. There is nothing that says they showed up at the same time as Sandra. This is what Arlene tells us:

"Does the group Pallbearers of Ra Descending mean anything to you?" You say, meeting the eyes of the woman across from you. "What of the name Lavender Fischer?"

"Can't say the name means anything to me, but the group," she taps a manicured finger to her chin. "They are new, quite wealthy, though that is hard to judge in this city where the easiest way to get rich is to play the part." She does not seem to like these people very much, though it does not quite cross over into open enmity, more the way someone would see a group with is astray, like devout Catholic might talk about a really out there denomination, which is quite odd on its own. Ancient pagan cults are not after all known for caring about each other's specific rites. "Their leader a Mr. Oliver Adkin tried to buy the Xanadu from Silk, though she is unwilling to sell, you'll have to ask her why. Instead they somehow acquired the right to set up in the Springs Preserve..."

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They were so new that neither Arlene nor Mayeda knew what their purposes were, which was why he was seducing Lavender Fischer.

By comparison, Sandra is a new undergrad at UNLV.
That means she has been here since at least August, which is when the undergrad year starts.
We assume our foe has at least some competence going on here. Didnt spend 6-8 months in Vegas collecting bottlecaps.

Artemis1992 said:

Silk is a mind-mage herself, she should be a hard target for that kind of thing.

And generally speaking, if it were that easy to make a successful chemical terrorist attack, it would happen more often.
Most of the time it seems like the homemade poisons don't work as well as intended, to much or too little air around, things go wrong in some way and in the end you have a few dead and some more injured, but not the intended massacre.

Keep in mind this was made by a nihilistic student, not a professional.
And speeding up the plot in response to an evacuation makes it much more likely for such a failure to happen.

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Silk has explicit control issues in her canon charge sheet.
If anything, she might actually be more vulnerable to that kind of thing, not less.

Given that Sandra, presumably did her research, knows all that, and had her thralls cooking 2nd-generation nerve gas anyway, I assume she's not actually dumb, and is reasonably sure that it will be effective.

uju32 said:

Given that Sandra, presumably did her research, knows all that, and had her thralls cooking 2nd-generation nerve gas anyway, I assume she's not actually dumb, and is reasonably sure that it will be effective.

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I mean, terrorists generally think what they're trying to do will work and it rarely does (even in the cases where the actual act works out, it rarely has the desired consequences).

I'm not really sold on Sandra being all that dangerous here in this context. She is working with sub-par minions on a plan that is compared to IRL examples unlikely to work.

My best guess is still that this is a distraction and we should focus on stopping her actually dangerous plan.

Degorium said:

I don't understand why you're so insistent on without warning busting into a Wizard's place. Even if they are primarily a mind wizard walking into a Wizard's place of power without telling them is a good way for bad things to immediately happen. Never mind the chances of immediate Friendly Fire because we are somewhere were not supposed to be. Never mind the fact there might be wards that can directly detect our presence even through anonymity through propriety. What makes you think busting into someone's place of business without telling them is a good idea?

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Its a club thats open to the public.
Its not a sanctum, its not a wizard's home. Its been characterized as itself being a place of power, which implies there's a Dragons Nest under it, but as far as we know its a place of business, which is why people like Adkins can make offers to buy it.

There's potentially hundreds of people at risk just in the club alone, and thousands that are potentially in the line of fire if/when this shit leaks out of the target building and into the local neighborhood. Or the water supply.
That sort of risk profile justifies precipitate action IC.

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We have literally evaded the notice of high Summer Fae and the Archive in the heart of Avalon with Anonymity Through Propriety. Those are Queen Titania's defenses.
I am reasonably sure that it would suffice to let us walk into a club run by a minor mage largely unnoticed.

Artemis1992 said:

I mean, terrorists generally think what they're trying to do will work and it rarely does (even in the cases where the actual act works out, it rarely has the desired consequences).

I'm not really sold on Sandra being all that dangerous here in this context. She is working with sub-par minions on a plan that is compared to IRL examples unlikely to work.
My best guess is still that this is a distraction and we should focus on stopping her actually dangerous plan.

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1) Sandra Marling is not your garden-tier disaffected youth with a nihilist manifesto and a grudge against society.
She presumably did not invest apparent months of effort in recruiting a street chemist, murder multiple people and enthrall their only kid for funding in order to just faff around. Either we're taking her seriously or we're not.

And if we're not taking her seriously about her intentions towards Xanadu, I can see no justification to take her threat towards Vegas itself seriously.


2) Prior to Molly showing up less than 24 hours ago, less than a handfull of people in Las Vegas even knew Sandra was here.
She was entirely successful in avoiding attention.
Supernaturals knew something was up, but had no idea who was orchestrating it.

Distraction makes no sense, because a mass murder attack on this scale on a supernatural hangout is announcing her presence with words of fire in the sky.


PS
I just remembered that Arlene called Club Xanadu a place of power.

"You'll have to ask them," Arlene shrugs. "All I know is they are not looking to found a casino, the land is protected and it is too high profile to set up a less regulated establishment. There is one thing that binds the Xanadu and the Preserve together, both are places of power. I can think of many things for which such a place could be used, most liable to get everyone involved killed."

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Sudden wild theory:
It could be that Sandra has been poisoning a bunch of Dragons Nests in Vegas as part of ritual prep, and the current attack on Xanadu is simply designed to be another step.

Unfortunately, we cant tell, because we dont have Essence-Dissecting Stare.

uju32 said:

No, you are misremembering.
The Cult of Ra Descending are explicitly new, unlike Sandra. There is nothing that says they showed up at the same time as Sandra. This is what Arlene tells us:
They were so new that neither Arlene nor Mayeda knew what their purposes were, which was why he was seducing Lavender Fischer.

By comparison, Sandra is a new undergrad at UNLV.
That means she has been here since at least August, which is when the undergrad year starts.
We assume our foe has at least some competence going on here. Didnt spend 6-8 months in Vegas collecting bottlecaps.

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It states that they arrived roughly at the same time in the same update you quote:

DragonParadox said:

"When did they arrive in Vegas?" Harry presses.

"Mid November last year," comes the reply. You don't have to look at him to know he's thinking the same thing you are, about the same time Sandra started making waves according to Maeve. Sure it might be coincidence that two newcomers show up in the city at roughly the same time, but that seems unlikely. "I've only met Adkin once he seemed..." she hesitates. "Inspired but not touched by forces beyond himself, not very interested in worldly matters for a man able to keep such a large following together, not to mention his age. It is hard to judge given the talent for magic lends one vigor, but by his mannerisms he is over a century old, British or he lived there for a long time."

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uju32 said:

Unfortunately, we cant tell, because we dont have Essence-Dissecting Stare.

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Tiffany and Lydia could tell.

Demon perception includes getting a supernatural "feel" for a location, so something poisoned by Outsider-stuff would probably show up very obviously, unless it was intentionally subtle.
But even that wouldn't stand up to any use of the Wizard's Sight.

Yog said:

It states that they arrived roughly at the same time in the same update you quote:

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No, you are misreading that.

The Pallbearers arrived in mid-November.
Sandra started making waves in November, she didnt arrive in November. Harrowmont confirms she was an undergrad in UNLV, and that would have started its semester 4 months prior.

Artemis1992 said:

Tiffany and Lydia could tell.

Demon perception includes getting a supernatural "feel" for a location, so something poisoned by Outsider-stuff would probably show up very obviously, unless it was intentionally subtle.
But even that wouldn't stand up to any use of the Wizard's Sight.

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Yeah, they could, couldnt they?
Remind me to ask them when they get there.

uju32 said:

No, you are misreading that.

The Pallbearers arrived in mid-November.
Sandra started making waves in November, she didnt arrive in November. Harrowmont confirms she was an undergrad in UNLV, and that would have started its semester 4 months prior.

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If I am misreading this, so does Molly in her internal narration:

DragonParadox said:

Sure it might be coincidence that two newcomers show up in the city at roughly the same time, but that seems unlikely.

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At the time of Molly calling the cult of Ra to warn them of danger, she mentally has connected their and Sandra's arrival to the city. This is not in question. This is directly stated in the text.

Yog said:

If I am misreading this, so does Molly in her internal narration:

At the time of Molly calling the cult of Ra to warn them of danger, she mentally has connected their and Sandra's arrival to the city. This is not in question. This is directly stated in the text.

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The thing is you guys do not know when Sandra arrived, all you know is when she started making waves, you know this from Maeve. She could have shown up then or at any point between June when she left Chicago and November.

Yog said:

If I am misreading this, so does Molly in her internal narration:

At the time of Molly calling the cult of Ra to warn them of danger, she mentally has connected their and Sandra's arrival to the city. This is not in question. This is directly stated in the text.

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Molly literally says in your quote that its what Maeve told her. Emphasis mine:

"When did they arrive in Vegas?" Harry presses.

"Mid November last year," comes the reply. You don't have to look at him to know he's thinking the same thing you are, about the same time Sandra started making waves according to Maeve. Sure it might be coincidence that two newcomers show up in the city at roughly the same time, but that seems unlikely. "I've only met Adkin once he seemed..." she hesitates. "Inspired but not touched by forces beyond himself, not very interested in worldly matters for a man able to keep such a large following together, not to mention his age. It is hard to judge given the talent for magic lends one vigor, but by his mannerisms he is over a century old, British or he lived there for a long time."

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Molly is not an infallible observer.

Furthermore, Harrowmont is clear that Sandra is an undergrad student at UNLV, which requires that she have been in Las Vegas for months before the Pallbearers even showed up here.
Something we further confirmed by talking to members of her coterie.

Unless you are suggesting that Harrowmont, and Jacob, and Katie House, and everyone else there has been mind whammied about when Sandra showed up.
Not impossible, but requires some evidence to that effect.

uju32 said:

Molly literally says in your quote that its what Maeve told her. Emphasis mine:

Molly is not an infallible observer.

Furthermore, Harrowmont is clear that Sandra is an undergrad student at UNLV, which requires that she have been in Las Vegas for months before the Pallbearers even showed up here.
Something we further confirmed by talking to members of her coterie.

Unless you are suggesting that Harrowmont, and Jacob, and Katie House, and everyone else there has been mind whammied about when Sandra showed up.
Not impossible, but requires some evidence to that effect.

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We are talking past each other. My point is "at the time Molly called cult of Ra Descending, she believed that there was a connection between their and Sandra's arrival to Las Vegas, based on the timing they were noticed in town. One possible interpretation of that was that they were working together. Molly still warned them of a danger of blampire attack. Thus, it is only consistent to warn Silk of the incoming attack".