First, that's exactly it. You don't know how the thread feels about the cruiser shipyards. I can only infer that you didn't look to see.
But if you start reading the discussion we constantly have about future plans, you will observe that there are a lot of people saying "build the shipyards." And that winning vote plans tend to invest 2-3 dice per turn into building the shipyards, which given that they cost Capital Goods and a lot of resources, is about the best we can do without ignoring the rest of the military or shorting other areas of the budget.
This leads to a more general conclusion: that you are saying "other people aren't thinking of as many things as me" when in reality you are not putting in the time and effort to gather accurate information on what other people are or are not thinking of.
...
As to tidal power- look at the costs. We're hitting diminishing returns, the point at which we're spending more and more dice and resources to get less Energy out of the project. @Lightwhispers discusses this, but what it comes down to is that the reason people aren't interested in finishing the project is because we know where it will end and it won't end with us having very much more Energy.
The existing phase is worth completing if and when we can shake loose 2-3 Infrastructure dice to work on it, because +4 Energy is worth the investment. But the phase after that is barely worth it, requiring an average of 3-4 dice just to get +2 Energy. Given that we have a lot of other demands on our Infrastructure dice, there is no clear reason to prioritize Tidal Power PHASE 4, even if it's worth completing Tidal Power Phase 3.
As to your misinterpretation of how "phased/staged" projects work, and your false belief that completing a project like 'Tidal Power' automatically means we gain exciting extra opportunities that everyone is just ignoring...
Again, @Lightwhispers discusses this.
But your main argument for tidal power seems to be that it will give us new options for expanding GDI's sea power. The problem is that we know why GDI's sea power is limited: we don't have enough effective warships and we need to build more. This is already a priority. Building slightly more (but inefficient) tidal power stations won't magically grant us more warships, and we're not limited in our number of warships by not having 'enough' tidal power. To resolve our naval problems we need to build ships and shipyards, and we're working on that as best we can while also forced to balance many other priorities.
Actually I did look to see. I've been reading every post since Q2 2056 Results threadmark. So I saw you argue with
every single post that suggested that Cruiser Shipyards not be built since that Threadmark. So no I don't know the opinion of everyone in the thread because every plan builder has either agreed with you for whatever reason or has been arguing with you.
Most of the thread want those Cruiser Yards, but there are some posters that don't and I don't know how many of those either lurk when they see every plan that can win have Cruiser Yards or just plan around them and vote for plans that do other things they want. At this point you have been personally banging the drum of the Cruiser Yards actions so hard it is impossible for me to tell what the entirety of the thread thinks about them, I can just tell which posters don't care to argue with you about Cruise Yards either because they agree with you or it isn't worth it.
As for gathering accurate information on what people think about? That can only be done for plan makers and the few voters who voice their concerns for certain actions being done now/soon. It's why whatever plan I come up with
will have the Unions Bureaucratic action and the Red Zone Containment Lines action. Only one die on the latter mind you we have a dense turn to deal with again.
Alright since this seems to have gone confusing enough: My main argument for building Tidal Power Stations Action to it's completion is so they can act as a tripwire of sorts for NOD sea forces. We are already getting attacked by the Ten Rings in this phase so there is no point in building more than it, but once the cruisers and the foils are sailing I want that action done so I can see where NOD responds with force on the sea. That is my reason for building them up past the third phase.
In response to the first part of your statement, that's because the success rates are for basic math. Derpmind lists the total number of dice required to complete a project with a certain level of probability. That is the only thing Derpmind does. There is no room for bias, it's literally just a math problem. Since our bonuses on the dice are more or less static, the probability of completing a project by rolling four dice THIS turn is generally equal to the probability of completing it by rolling two dice this turn and two dice next turn.
Obviously the two-and-two option results in greater delay, and that is an important decision to make- do we want to rush this project or to complete it slowly? But that is a decision that is left up to the plan creator. Derpmind's probability array has nothing to do with that decision and expresses NO bias regarding it. Which you would probably know, if you'd thought about it or tried to use it before talking about what it does.
Don't assume things don't exist just because you haven't seen them, because it's fairly clear that you don't see everything that's happening.
Except that Mathematics itself is a language not a science. It is the language of science and it taps into our neural calculator which is something that most languages don't do, but it is a language all the same. As such just the phrasing itself of a problem can and is biased towards looking at the problem from the paradigm it was phrased in.
Or in layman's terms: Whatever decision was made as to what constitutes a simple math problem to be solved so the plan makers can get on with their plans isn't one I agree with and as such I don't find the solutions to the problem so defined of use to me when making plans.
I don't assume that things exist. I'm just saying that Derpmind's probability array is a solution to a problem that for me is ill-defined. I'm not simply looking for the answer to the question of how many dice do we need to complete this action. Why do you have a problem with this?
Actions change with age for reasons. Understanding the reasons enables us to predict outcomes.
When there is a faction with an incentive to pressure us into taking an action, the demand for that action rises. Sometimes this results in us gaining Political Support for taking the action. Sometimes it results in us losing such support for not taking the action. In cases where no faction has a strong incentive one way or the other, the value and consequences of the action are relatively unlikely to change.
Except those are not the only factors in actions ageing out of availability. Just the ones you care to argue for mattering so far. My point still remains: We lost multiple actions and gained a Megaproject in their stead. From my point of view that megaproject is less likely to be done than the actions themselves and we might end up building Lunar Farms before we do Shala. Speaking of Shala:
Yes, and regardless of how many farms we build it is better to have figured out space industry first since it will give us more options for actually building the farms.
In planquests, when you talk about completing projects, it is always better to have "1 and 2" than to have only 1 or only 2. It is better to have Enterprise Phase 5 and Shala Phase 5 than to have either one separately. But since we can only work on them slowly, and we need to choose one or the other to do first... We have to think about which project has more positive impact on the other. And then we have to find a balance. You are advancing arguments for why Shala being done first is better in the abstract. There are specific, practical reasons to argue that it would be better to do Enterprise first. Alternatively we could strike a balance- accept that Enterprise Phase 4 is as far as we can afford to get before we start work on Shala, for example.
But it's meaningless to say "we should do Shala first because finishing Shala would be rewarding." Of course it would be rewarding, nearly all projects are rewarding in a plan quest. The problem is picking which ones to do first.
My reason for wanting Shala at least up to Phase 2 is to get some food production going space side so we can have a reduction in cost for our logistics in space. Either Phase 2 or Phase 3 of Shala will get us to the point where we don't need to ship food into space as much which will bring down the price of working in space as we can just shuttle the food.
So no my argument isn't to wait for Enterprise Phase 4. It's to wait for the Lunar Regolith Harvesting to be done and then build Shala up enough so all our space constructions and Carter Quest's space constructions are cheaper logistically and in materiel as we don't have to haul food up anymore.
I'm willing to eat the dice cost for that as I find the dice cost going down for every other project including Enterprise to be worth it.
Review of discussion text in the thread reveals that we often concern ourselves with exactly that category of problem. And indeed, it's a real concern, which we think about. Not something that's unique to your genius mind. Maybe don't see other people thinking about it, but if so, that's because you didn't look.
For example, in 2057Q1 we had a +1 Energy surplus (and two points of microgeneration to act as 'insurance' if we go into Energy negatives). We completed +13 Energy worth of Energy-generating projects in the Q1 turn rolls, and also built projects that consumed -3 Energy (a shipyard and the water purification plants). Being pessimistic (because some turns the civilian economy uses up some Energy), we might expect to have +9 or +10 Energy surplus next turn.
If it turns out that there are so many vitally important projects next turn consuming Energy that the risk of consuming another -2 Energy might send us into unacceptable negatives, then that would indeed be a concern for plans to push the URLS deployment. The problem is that we have already been told there will be serious bad consequences for being slow on URLS deployment... So we'd be more likely to work the problem from the other direction. We might delay Energy-hungry projects next turn so that we're sure of having enough Energy in reserve to cover the URLS Phase 2 plants. Or we might attempt to rush-complete things that might give us more Energy, such as spending three dice on Tidal Power to be reasonably sure of completing Tidal Power Phase 3 for +4 Energy. Or we might spend a lot of dice to do a phase of power plant construction, even at the potential cost of delaying completion on North Boston Phase 4, just to be sure we'll have the electricity we need.
OK first of all I asked are you specifically willing to take that risk. You are not the rest of the thread. Good to know that you are and that you already have plan for that possibility.
Huh. Do you think we should build a MARV Hub in Blue Zone 4? Between the Hydrofoil Shipyards in Duqm, the Mecca Planned City and it being the Blue Zone closest to Karachi and one of the three ports for that Planned City should we fortify it before the plan's end since we would have the resources now instead of before we start on the Karachi Planned City action?
Also for the vote since it has come up while I was writing this reply I want either Forgotten Outreach or Healthcare Planning Board as the former is a Diplomacy gain that is risky but could be worth it and the latter is going to teach our Tiberium genius how healthcare works in more granular detail which will net us better safety but also might net us better Tiberium infection treatments.
