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The Morrsley Village Experiment

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Nictis said:
*shrugs*
Note my bet on a Vigilante existing.
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Then it seems like a really bad plan to trust you. I mean we need you dead and you might well need some of us dead.

Also, it seems like there has to be something more to your role, otherwise, how could you ever win? I mean if town wins and the hypothetical vig isn't revealed, you couldn't possibly do anything about it unless you have some special case killing power. I guess if you hadn't outed yourself, you might have convinced people that you are town and get us to "scumhunt" the vigilante, but that ship has sailed, and it would be a depserate hope even if you were still undercover.

A couple things I had been thinking over that haven't been considered. Is it possible pinkie is a vig, not an SK?

And what if the Control Group does have some killing members, and one of them is Rosen?
 
mesonoxian said:
Then it seems like a really bad plan to trust you. I mean we need you dead and you might well need some of us dead.

Also, it seems like there has to be something more to your role, otherwise, how could you ever win? I mean if town wins and the hypothetical vig isn't revealed, you couldn't possibly do anything about it unless you have some special case killing power. I guess if you hadn't outed yourself, you might have convinced people that you are town and get us to "scumhunt" the vigilante, but that ship has sailed, and it would be a depserate hope even if you were still undercover.

A couple things I had been thinking over that haven't been considered. Is it possible pinkie is a vig, not an SK?

And what if the Control Group does have some killing members, and one of them is Rosen?
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I win when the killing stops. That is paraphrased. My role helps me with this. See earlier post.
 
Right, so I had not actually considered getting Control Group to win, then getting Test Subjects to win as a possibility. That's why I was pushing so hard on the hope Nictis didn't have to survive. I still think they don't, but... Nictis doesn't seem convinced. (Actually, one more argument to that effect! If you're reading that right, then every test subject also needs to survive to win!)

I'm pretty sure I have the setup, and gimmick, figured out. I'm pretty sure Nictis is being close-to-honest.
The gimmick being that 'town' is split in to two not-actually-competing factions, that are given information to try to make them compete rather than work together.

I would not be surprised if scum was, in fact, underpowered, and supposed to hope that Town and Town try to get each other killed. (I don't think a 2-man scumteam makes sense, but...)
 
InterstellarHobo said:
Right, so I had not actually considered getting Control Group to win, then getting Test Subjects to win as a possibility. That's why I was pushing so hard on the hope Nictis didn't have to survive. I still think they don't, but... Nictis doesn't seem convinced. (Actually, one more argument to that effect! If you're reading that right, then every test subject also needs to survive to win!)

I'm pretty sure I have the setup, and gimmick, figured out. I'm pretty sure Nictis is being close-to-honest.
The gimmick being that 'town' is split in to two not-actually-competing factions, that are given information to try to make them compete rather than work together.

I would not be surprised if scum was, in fact, underpowered, and supposed to hope that Town and Town try to get each other killed. (I don't think a 2-man scumteam makes sense, but...)
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What do you think about lynching Rosen? I think it just makes sense to kill scum whenever we have the chance to kill scum.
InterstellarHobo said:
Also, meso, Nictis is claiming-but-not-quoting that they need all killing roles dead.
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That's what I thought, but then he responded with that cryptic thing about his power helping him accomplish his goal, which it very much wouldn't in the case of a surviving vig.
 
I'm still voting -Rosen.
I need to reread Nictis' arguments, but the proposal just seems pointlessly unsafe to me.
 
Since my name is being suggested by Nictis (Which I do understand why), I've decided to look at who I should put my vote on right now. While Nictis's plan is good and I would generally vote from someone else and have Rosen roleblocked but their was mention earlier in the day that their was a teleporter active so Rosen could be switched out of roleblock. Due to the chance of that happening, I'm gonna
[X] Lynch Rosen

If I've made a mistake or misunderstood something, just let me know
 
mesonoxian said:
Then it seems like a really bad plan to trust you. I mean we need you dead and you might well need some of us dead.

Also, it seems like there has to be something more to your role, otherwise, how could you ever win? I mean if town wins and the hypothetical vig isn't revealed, you couldn't possibly do anything about it unless you have some special case killing power. I guess if you hadn't outed yourself, you might have convinced people that you are town and get us to "scumhunt" the vigilante, but that ship has sailed, and it would be a depserate hope even if you were still undercover.

A couple things I had been thinking over that haven't been considered. Is it possible pinkie is a vig, not an SK?

And what if the Control Group does have some killing members, and one of them is Rosen?
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Even if we lynch Nictis and he was indeed scum, there's still other scum out there. If all townies are dead or all killers are dead he wins either way if he is indeed what he says.
 
Nictis said:
Except that that alone is not a bad mechanic, is actually a really common one, and wasn't the problem in that setup.
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I'm gonna disagree with you here because I don't remember any other games where the kill could only be done by 1 scum member and only that member until they died and passed it on.

Nictis said:
-Shadell is an Experimental Gunsmith, meaning that there's a fail condition. The simplest explanation is that not all the scum are immediately kill capable, which is a common mechanic for a lot of mafia games.
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Can I get a quote that specifies that their an experimental? I'm at work and barely got through the last 3 pages in 2 hours

InterstellarHobo said:
Also, Nictis, I'm pretty sure you're reading that wrong.
You are not explicitly listed as needing to survive (I presume from your answers), and "If a requirement is not explicitly listed as part of your win condition then it is not required" seems to pretty unambiguously state that you are not required to survive.
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I'd doubt a wincon like that would allow you to die in the process otherwise there is no reason to even play the game. Now then. I have nothing else to say on the matter at this time as I'm a bit done talking about wincons.

mesonoxian said:
A couple things I had been thinking over that haven't been considered. Is it possible pinkie is a vig, not an SK?
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I've considered the possibilites. Making the Vig's Kill flavor not match any other colors would be apt way to not instant confirm a vig's kill as town.

Hybrid said:
their was mention earlier in the day that their was a teleporter active so Rosen could be switched out of roleblock. Due to the chance of that happening, I'm gonna
[X] Lynch Rosen

If I've made a mistake or misunderstood something, just let me know
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I mentioned the fact that there is probably not a Teleporter at work here...


Overall thoughts-

Meso Vs Nictis - Frankly I can see positives in BOTH sides of these arguments. Nictis is trying to reduce kill numbers off of educated analysis and meta analysis. Meso is taking the simpler approach and simply wants to reduce scum numbers. I appeal more to Meso's side as we know there are 4-....(Notes the claim...) 3 Unknown variables in at play. HOWEVER. Don't cross off Itznarcotic as not the SK if pink is SK. I'd expect them to have some advantage towards the power sets out there. In addition also note that if Nictis is correct about set-up that means Itznarcotic could be scum as well.

Okay, that does leave me leaning towards rosen lynch. (4/6 at this point currently to hammer). I believe both are Nictis and Meso are being honest and have good points(Although Meso's way of throwing shade at Nictis doesn't appeal to me)

Beyond that we have the following as Unknowns

Myself- I know that I'm not scum.
Meso- Unknown role but likely town.
ChopShop- Unknown role
Hybrid- Unknown Role
Itznarcotic- Unknown role(Unlikely to be Killer unless they can ignore

So that leaves 5 people to be given closer inspection mechanically. We know of these there is also another visiting role that doesn't kill. Hopefully a doctor who has a good trifecta of selection to protect between IH, Shadell, and Nictis depending on the results of this lynch. (IE rosen flips Test Subject don't for the love of god heal IH)

@Nictis Frankly I like those odds. We have enough coverage on town to narrow down the suspect field this night with minimal Loss. In addition we can laugh when Scum/SK both target the same town member and make it easier to close net. In this situation I think it's optimal to lynch rosen and roll the dice.
 
We're two votes away from hammer activating on -Rosen. Considering that Scum would've already jumped onto this Lynch if -Rosen was a Test Subject and not one of the Independent Variables, I'm inclined to believe that most of the individuals voting -Rosen are not Independent Variables.

I'd put a vote onto -Rosen myself, but that would mean Hammer would only need 1 person to activate and I'd rather not have EoD happen early without more information being put on the table for us to work with D3.

@OneStopChopShop @RaptorusMaximus Hey, mind giving us some reads on who you think is what role out of this group of people:

Cyricubed
mesonoxian
OneStopChopShop
ItzNarcotic
Hybrid

Also, just so I'm not accused of being a hypocrite:

Cyricubed: Unknown role, likely a Test Subject.
mesonoxian: Unknown role, likely a Test Subject.
OneStopChopShop: Unknown role, likely not a Test Subject. Probably one of the two remaining Independent Variables/Pink SK?
ItzNarcotic: I know myself the best. Definitely a Test Subject.
Hybrid: Unknown role, likely not a Test Subject. Probably one of the two remaining Independent Variables/Pink SK?


Pre-post edit: Apparently, I didn't post this when I did the tally a couple of hours ago :thonk:
 
ItzNarcotic said:
We're two votes away from hammer activating on -Rosen. Considering that Scum would've already jumped onto this Lynch if -Rosen was a Test Subject and not one of the Independent Variables, I'm inclined to believe that most of the individuals voting -Rosen are not Independent Variables.

I'd put a vote onto -Rosen myself, but that would mean Hammer would only need 1 person to activate and I'd rather not have EoD happen early without more information being put on the table for us to work with D3.

@OneStopChopShop @RaptorusMaximus Hey, mind giving us some reads on who you think is what role out of this group of people:

Cyricubed
mesonoxian
OneStopChopShop
ItzNarcotic
Hybrid

Also, just so I'm not accused of being a hypocrite:

Cyricubed: Unknown role, likely a Test Subject.
mesonoxian: Unknown role, likely a Test Subject.
OneStopChopShop: Unknown role, likely not a Test Subject. Probably one of the two remaining Independent Variables/Pink SK?
ItzNarcotic: I know myself the best. Definitely a Test Subject.
Hybrid: Unknown role, likely not a Test Subject. Probably one of the two remaining Independent Variables/Pink SK?


Pre-post edit: Apparently, I didn't post this when I did the tally a couple of hours ago :thonk:
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I believe Cyri, Meso, Narcotic, and Hybrid are town. Originally I believed that -Rosen was not scum, but Meso's words have convinced me otherwise. Oh, and I'm town as well.
 
About to go to work and don't know if I'll be able to get back in time for Day's End, so I'll remake my case really quickly.

I think that we should lynch one of the people that we would have to lynch tomorrow today, this will both help narrow the suspect pool (By dint of there being less uncertains and one of the investigatives getting to survive the night) and keep one of the known Town alive.

Of the uncertains, I am more strongly suspecting Hybrid and Chop.

And now I leave for work, if Rosen lives I will personally guarantee that one of the kills vanishes.
 
I'll just repeat my counterarguments:

1. Uncertainty:
We don't know if Nictis is right about how kills work.
We don't know if Nictis is being honest about their role.
Either or both might be true, but I don't think we should count on either.

2. The Plan is badly flawed:
Let's presume -Rosen is one of the killers, Nictis is telling the truth about everything, and is right about the game:

If -Rosen is the mafia killer, presumably the kills would stop while he is roleblocked. But that is ultimately not in the interests of the SK, who could just whack Nictis. At which point we are back to two night kills, but down a roleblocker.

If -Rosen is the SK, roleblocking him instead of lynching him accomplishes nothing.

3. Loss of information
If we don't lynch -Rosen, we don't see how he flips. If he flips town we have good reason to be suspicious of IH. If he flips with a killing role, that gives us good reason to suspect Shadell.
Conversely, if -Rosen flips scum killer, that pretty much confirms there roles and makes their alignment much more likely to be town.

With Nictis' plan, we just don't get any of that information.
 
Nictis said:
About to go to work and don't know if I'll be able to get back in time for Day's End, so I'll remake my case really quickly.

I think that we should lynch one of the people that we would have to lynch tomorrow today, this will both help narrow the suspect pool (By dint of there being less uncertains and one of the investigatives getting to survive the night) and keep one of the known Town alive.

Of the uncertains, I am more strongly suspecting Hybrid and Chop.

And now I leave for work, if Rosen lives I will personally guarantee that one of the kills vanishes.
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BTW, EoD is tomorrow at 8:30, not this evening. I hope your shift isn't that long!
 
mesonoxian said:
I'll just repeat my counterarguments:

1. Uncertainty:
We don't know if Nictis is right about how kills work.
We don't know if Nictis is being honest about their role.
Either or both might be true, but I don't think we should count on either.

2. The Plan is badly flawed:
Let's presume -Rosen is one of the killers, Nictis is telling the truth about everything, and is right about the game:

If -Rosen is the mafia killer, presumably the kills would stop while he is roleblocked. But that is ultimately not in the interests of the SK, who could just whack Nictis. At which point we are back to two night kills, but down a roleblocker.

If -Rosen is the SK, roleblocking him instead of lynching him accomplishes nothing.

3. Loss of information
If we don't lynch -Rosen, we don't see how he flips. If he flips town we have good reason to be suspicious of IH. If he flips with a killing role, that gives us good reason to suspect Shadell.
Conversely, if -Rosen flips scum killer, that pretty much confirms there roles and makes their alignment much more likely to be town.

With Nictis' plan, we just don't get any of that information.
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I screwed this up. It should say "if he flips without a killing role, that gives us good reason to suspect Shadell"
 
OneStopChopShop said:
The best that I can give you is that the aforementioned town people have not acted in a way that has made me suspicious of them. -Rosen seemed legit too until Meso convinced me otherwise.
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In that case you don't have town reads. You have null reads. They simply haven't done anything to make you sus of them. Town reads are for people who are actively giving town vibes, scumhunting, and have proven to not be scum in some way shape or fashion.


Nictis said:
And now I leave for work, if Rosen lives I will personally guarantee that one of the kills vanishes.
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Personally believe this is a bit bold and rather overconfident in that -Rosen is absolutely the IV. Killer. I trust you have confidence in your own plan, I don't however, sorry My dood.
 
For what it is worth I didn't mean to throw shade at @Nictis . This is a game where lying is a perfectly reasonable, even mandatory strategy for some teams. I don't intend to impugn his credibility or character. Just that it is entirely believable to me that making up a role and convincing town to rely on it is the kind of strategy a skilled player could get away with.

In Game of Crowns, Nictis invented a role, and then lied about the nature of the role he made up, in such a way that based on secret information, town "figured out" the fictitious role he made up, and I at least totally bought it. If it weren't for Evenstar's well honed paranoia and a lucky nightkill by a different scum team we'd have lost the game right then and there.

I guess what I am saying is that I hope my paranoia with regards to Nictis should be seen as a tribute to his abilities, and not any sort of animosity outside the game.
 
mesonoxian said:
I guess what I am saying is that I hope my paranoia with regards to Nictis should be seen as a tribute to his abilities, and not any sort of animosity outside the game.
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Actually the paranoia is normal, I just meant the specifics you were aiming at, not the act of throwing shade itself.
 
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