Added rumors, the first two I had down real fast, third one was a real toss up. Wanted something about global conditions continuing to worsen, but wasn't sure how to play it.
Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)
- Thread starter inverted_helix
- Start date
Because Serena doesn't need them to fight all the demons.
Only in cases of massed teleporters, or the beholder. In which cases her instructions are to retreat and lead them into our trap.
And my point is that we need to operate in a way so that we have the initiative not the demons.
Telefrag what?
I never suggested any telefraging. And Serena has her aura to help protect her.
Not to mention that 5 demons are not likely to gang up initially against 5 girls. They'll probably arrive one at a time. Coming as fast as they can. It's far more likely though that they would coordinate an attack on a group of 28 girls.
Why you can't understand the risk is greater for vets than it is for Serena I don't get.
I want to make sure that the enemy demons don't get a shot at our vets outside Serena's aura, and that we get the surprise round.
Why is that so controversial?
Why is everyone so insistent on throwing our vets into an attrition war in which a bunch of them are virtually certain to die?
Especially when there is zero reason to do so.
Last edited:
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
In other words, the only time you believe we need to help Serena are either A. in a situation she will die in before your plan is capable of helping her (in a manner that is more dangerous for her hypothetical support than massing them nearby is), or B. in a situation where you have repeatedly assured us that is is impossible for anyone but Serena to do the fight in the first place (and that you practically expect her to die in before we can arrive).
Yeah, you did suggest telefragging, in a sense, in that a teleporting demon is guaranteed to kill a girl due to surprise rounds. In the same breath you also say that it can't happen to Serena, due to an effect we aren't even sure will work.
Serena's team has five people in it, with one barrier and one healer, while the support team has at least two of each, as well as trained elites, clairvoyants, and illusionists able to play defense.
It's controversial because you're doing exactly what I said you'd do with Serena, albeit for a different reason than what it was before we knew her limits. You're throwing her into the ocean for swimming lessons and all but refused to give her a line to hold onto, 'because it's too risky to our girls'.
If you want Serena to die, that's on you, but shockingly enough, other voters consider her to be a member of the Serenes, and are a little against throwing her under the bus quite so fast.
I think that's enough. I would ask everyone to stop deliberately mischaracterizing others' thoughts.
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
Kinematics had to convince haman to even consider the possibility that Serena could be supported in a fight with the beholder. If he didn't want her to die, he certainly wasn't against letting it happen to kill a few extra 3's.
The Class 3 demon we fought explicitly had Elite level stealth:
Yeah, I've been pretty busy. I've been keeping up with the threads I'm watching but didn't have anything to really contribute.
Same as here actually. I don't have anything useful to contribute. All the points I would make have already been made, and there aren't any numbers we can usefully argue about. All of our numbers are effectively pure guesswork. Moderately well-informed guesswork, but still guesswork.
If we had hard numbers of some sort I could contribute. If we were using that old battle program I wrote, I could make arguments for one choice or another since we'd have hard probabilities for the different options. But when we're arguing about whether or not a given course of action has a 10% chance or a 90% chance of failure, I can't really contribute since we aren't given sufficient information to make a mathematically informed decision. Instead you have to make a fluff-informed decision, which I don't really like arguing about. Note that pretty much all of my prior contributions were in the math, and that my fluff contributions were literally "Also copy everything fluff from the other plans".
So, rather than throw around wild accusations, perhaps it would be better to list the actual problems that are a concern, and how we can go about solving them.
1) Can Serena's group kill class 3's on their own?
2) How can we communicate with Serena's group?
3) How much assistance will Serena's group need for the various fights? What sort of team members do we need to have available?
The fight with the beholder will require a substantial support team. Thus, the support team will be composed of the necessary elements to provide that support, and designed so that the same elements can be used for milder cases of needed aid.
That means the CC on standby can have more than two dozen girls present.
That many girls in one location can be considered a heavy attractor for demons. If we are within a demon's detection radius, we can expect to be attacked.
Demons' detection radius is unknown. Our only value reference is "quite a few kilometers". @inverted_helix - Can we get at least a lower bound on this?
In any case, probably at least 5, maybe 10 kilometers. 10 kilometers is a little over 6 miles (for use on the Google map, which gives its measurement reference in miles). That's actually not too bad, relative to the probable demon density of the outer rim.
In general, if we attack a center point that's vulnerable to detection from both directions, we might have to fight between 3 and 6 total demons. IE: 1-2 demons on either side of a starting point, within reasonable detection range. If we avoid making a poor starting attack position choice like that, and work from the edges, we'd have to fight between 2 and 4 demons, maybe.
Now, since one of those demons must necessarily be one that Serena is fighting, the potential risk of a mobile CC is limited to between 1 and 3 'surprise' demons. Still not good, but almost certainly not the '5' that was thrown out for an example.
Still, it's almost certain that 1 out of 3 would choose the CC as its target, rather than Serena. That means that that threat is real, and is likely to appear every single time we send Serena in.
Now, assuming that we've verified that full-power Serena can crush the class 3's, if we simply move the CC inside her aura, the CC team should likewise be able to take out any interlopers. We'd have 4 elites on hand, plus a couple dozen vets with barriers available.
On the other hand, we don't want to send our entire CC team into Serena's full aura during every single fight.
Given the conflict between those two points, we cannot reasonably keep a mobile CC at the edge of Serena's aura — unless someone can come up with a plan to absolutely ensure all demon 'adds' head to Serena. However, if we do that, we may still need to head into the aura to provide the needed support.
And in fact, that's a bit of a catch-22. By ensuring that any demon adds do not attack the CC, we pretty much ensure that they head to Serena, putting Serena in a position where she might reasonably ask for support from the CC, which means we have to go into her full aura anyway. Maybe. Unless Serena can kill them fast enough that the adds are not actually a risk factor for her team. But we can't know that without some means of communication.
@inverted_helix - What's the range on a telepathy charm? Even if it can't send a coherent message, an incoherent message that can reach us is sufficient to act as a signal for aid. Or would it only affect the person using the charm?
The only way to use cell phones would be to have Serena & Co. exit the miasma so they can get a signal, and call us in as they run. That's a somewhat risky approach, since at least one of them can potentially get trapped inside, making an escape impractical. Sending a single one of them out while the rest defend is likewise risky, because that single one can be targeted, as well.
On the risks of a small stealth team: A stealth/teleport demon that spotted them could attack without them being able to detect it. They also wouldn't have any barriers on standby to protect them. A team of 5 might work: 2 stealth, 2 barrier, 1 teleport. As long as they were notified of any beholder appearances, they could also move around the perimeter of Serena's aura to avoid being noticed.
The comm team would know immediately if they were being targeted, because of the appearance of any miasma. They can escape the miasma (with the barriers as a buffer against a stealth attack), notify Serena via telepathy, and once out of the miasma, notify CC (who probably are already aware, due to comm disconnect).
Scenario:
Taya: Target A is isolated. Send Serena in.
Serena (cell) : confirm arrival at target; engage
Comm team: teleport to edge of Serena's aura; open telepathic link; keep cell open to scout base
Taya: Target B is moving towards A
Comm team passes message to Serena
Taya: Target C has disappeared; expect incoming
Comm team teleports
Comm team passes message to Serena
Serena: Target C is engaged
Comm team relays message to Taya
Taya: Target D has disappeared; expect incoming
Comm team teleports
Serena: no third target has appeared
Miasma appears at Comm team (red flag goes up at CC)
Comm team's barrier is broken
Comm team teleports, reinstates barrier while communicating to both Serena and CC about new demon.
Assault team teleports to outside Serena's miasma fight.
Assault team meets up with and incorporates comm team.
Assault team enters miasma, assisting Serena with any remaining demons, and being bait for the target D.
Once target D is engaged, assault team withdraws outside of Serena's aura.
Having active comms, Serena can request specific aid as needed (eg: Taya, Mami, full assault team, etc). We need that comm channel open.
I think I'm going to agree that a small mobile team will be better than a mobile CC. However that team needs more than just 3 people. Tandem stealth only gives them a 40% chance of staying hidden from clairvoyant demons. They also need teleportation themselves for mobility, and a barrier team as protection.
Another note: Vet teleporter needs a break between each teleport, while a demon teleporter is working at elite level, which means no break between teleports. If the demon can rapidly track them as they move (ie: "detect magical girl"), they can catch the comm team faster than the comm team can either teleport or repair shields/stealth, if they try multiple hops, unless a 20 km hop can take them out of "magical girl detection" range. Their primary safe destination is to head straight to Serena, instead.
Final note: This isn't complete. Still needs more review of the mobile CC setup.
1) Can Serena's group kill class 3's on their own?
- The very first fight is going to try to target a very isolated demon so we can analyze the effect of Serena's aura on it directly.
- Mami and Kyouko will be assisting directly in that fight.
- If further assistance is deemed necessary (see problem #2), we can teleport the assault team directly to the fight.
- The expected result, however, is that 7 elite-class meguca will completely crush a degraded class 3 demon.
- Withdrawal at this point, to prevent any demons that answered calls for assistance from the target demon from having anything to land on.
2) How can we communicate with Serena's group?
- Options: Telepathy within a 1 km range, or cell phones that won't operate while inside a miasma.
- If we use a stationary Command Center (CC), they cannot communicate with Serena's group once they enter a miasma.
- If we use a mobile CC, it's a significant target for nearby demons.
- Non-teleporting demons are not a concern, as they can be monitored.
- Teleporting demons may either land on Serena's group (if they answer the other demons' requests directly) or on the mobile CC (if they decide to target a visible group themselves).
- So: How do we maintain the situation such that we can respond to Serena's needs in a timely manner, without putting our CC at risk?
3) How much assistance will Serena's group need for the various fights? What sort of team members do we need to have available?
- For the beholder (its own can of worms).
- For any class 3's with troublesome powers (such as stealth).
- For any attack by multiple class 3's.
The fight with the beholder will require a substantial support team. Thus, the support team will be composed of the necessary elements to provide that support, and designed so that the same elements can be used for milder cases of needed aid.
That means the CC on standby can have more than two dozen girls present.
That many girls in one location can be considered a heavy attractor for demons. If we are within a demon's detection radius, we can expect to be attacked.
Demons' detection radius is unknown. Our only value reference is "quite a few kilometers". @inverted_helix - Can we get at least a lower bound on this?
In any case, probably at least 5, maybe 10 kilometers. 10 kilometers is a little over 6 miles (for use on the Google map, which gives its measurement reference in miles). That's actually not too bad, relative to the probable demon density of the outer rim.
In general, if we attack a center point that's vulnerable to detection from both directions, we might have to fight between 3 and 6 total demons. IE: 1-2 demons on either side of a starting point, within reasonable detection range. If we avoid making a poor starting attack position choice like that, and work from the edges, we'd have to fight between 2 and 4 demons, maybe.
Now, since one of those demons must necessarily be one that Serena is fighting, the potential risk of a mobile CC is limited to between 1 and 3 'surprise' demons. Still not good, but almost certainly not the '5' that was thrown out for an example.
Still, it's almost certain that 1 out of 3 would choose the CC as its target, rather than Serena. That means that that threat is real, and is likely to appear every single time we send Serena in.
Now, assuming that we've verified that full-power Serena can crush the class 3's, if we simply move the CC inside her aura, the CC team should likewise be able to take out any interlopers. We'd have 4 elites on hand, plus a couple dozen vets with barriers available.
On the other hand, we don't want to send our entire CC team into Serena's full aura during every single fight.
Given the conflict between those two points, we cannot reasonably keep a mobile CC at the edge of Serena's aura — unless someone can come up with a plan to absolutely ensure all demon 'adds' head to Serena. However, if we do that, we may still need to head into the aura to provide the needed support.
And in fact, that's a bit of a catch-22. By ensuring that any demon adds do not attack the CC, we pretty much ensure that they head to Serena, putting Serena in a position where she might reasonably ask for support from the CC, which means we have to go into her full aura anyway. Maybe. Unless Serena can kill them fast enough that the adds are not actually a risk factor for her team. But we can't know that without some means of communication.
@inverted_helix - What's the range on a telepathy charm? Even if it can't send a coherent message, an incoherent message that can reach us is sufficient to act as a signal for aid. Or would it only affect the person using the charm?
The only way to use cell phones would be to have Serena & Co. exit the miasma so they can get a signal, and call us in as they run. That's a somewhat risky approach, since at least one of them can potentially get trapped inside, making an escape impractical. Sending a single one of them out while the rest defend is likewise risky, because that single one can be targeted, as well.
On the risks of a small stealth team: A stealth/teleport demon that spotted them could attack without them being able to detect it. They also wouldn't have any barriers on standby to protect them. A team of 5 might work: 2 stealth, 2 barrier, 1 teleport. As long as they were notified of any beholder appearances, they could also move around the perimeter of Serena's aura to avoid being noticed.
The comm team would know immediately if they were being targeted, because of the appearance of any miasma. They can escape the miasma (with the barriers as a buffer against a stealth attack), notify Serena via telepathy, and once out of the miasma, notify CC (who probably are already aware, due to comm disconnect).
Scenario:
Taya: Target A is isolated. Send Serena in.
Serena (cell) : confirm arrival at target; engage
Comm team: teleport to edge of Serena's aura; open telepathic link; keep cell open to scout base
Taya: Target B is moving towards A
Comm team passes message to Serena
Taya: Target C has disappeared; expect incoming
Comm team teleports
Comm team passes message to Serena
Serena: Target C is engaged
Comm team relays message to Taya
Taya: Target D has disappeared; expect incoming
Comm team teleports
Serena: no third target has appeared
Miasma appears at Comm team (red flag goes up at CC)
Comm team's barrier is broken
Comm team teleports, reinstates barrier while communicating to both Serena and CC about new demon.
Assault team teleports to outside Serena's miasma fight.
Assault team meets up with and incorporates comm team.
Assault team enters miasma, assisting Serena with any remaining demons, and being bait for the target D.
Once target D is engaged, assault team withdraws outside of Serena's aura.
Having active comms, Serena can request specific aid as needed (eg: Taya, Mami, full assault team, etc). We need that comm channel open.
I think I'm going to agree that a small mobile team will be better than a mobile CC. However that team needs more than just 3 people. Tandem stealth only gives them a 40% chance of staying hidden from clairvoyant demons. They also need teleportation themselves for mobility, and a barrier team as protection.
Another note: Vet teleporter needs a break between each teleport, while a demon teleporter is working at elite level, which means no break between teleports. If the demon can rapidly track them as they move (ie: "detect magical girl"), they can catch the comm team faster than the comm team can either teleport or repair shields/stealth, if they try multiple hops, unless a 20 km hop can take them out of "magical girl detection" range. Their primary safe destination is to head straight to Serena, instead.
Final note: This isn't complete. Still needs more review of the mobile CC setup.
That's too bad, glad you're still reading at least. Don't want to lose one of my long time readers.
I don't have a firm measure for this, but around 10 miles rather than 6 for the lower bound.
Telepathy charms are just self targeted, not sending a message. Not sophisticated enough.
You know it really occurs to me as I view your plans that I should originally have made Class 3s weaker but more numerous, just to make operations like this take more time. Not something I can fix now, but something I regret.
Also surprised that the rumors drew no comment at all, I thought at the very least the second one would draw some speculation.
Last edited:
Sorry, was in the midst of that huge analysis post.
First thing that stood out to me was, "General expectation is for them to die horribly." Really hoping we can prove that one wrong.
For the second one:
Not a lot to say. There are two or three wishes that could easily lead to that. Theoretically her negotiating prowess may be entirely skill-based (like Mami), which would make a discussion between the two of them be... interesting to watch.
Rich, rich, rich. Hmm. Does make her a potential source for high-value loans that could get us around some of the limitations we'd be under with normal banks. However, making a deal is itself risky, and you don't get to be that rich by doing low-risk, low-interest stuff. On the other, other hand... There's a faint hint of "let's make a deal", or "you'd just owe me a favor", here.
Yes, I could see several verrrry interesting deals that are possible, depending on the sort of person she is.
Sounds like she's very good at blackmail, too.
Well, the first and third were kind of expected--I mean, Elder Haman came up with the "goddess Serena" thing, and Hong Kong dying is certain to cause a global economic meltdown, even if it's no longer the economic center of Asia that it was 20 years ago. The second is an interesting tidbit, although it's arguably less interesting than the blurb we got on them in the Diplomacy section, where they apparently have a paid adult working for them, meaning they've gone much further along on this "associate" deal than we have. Assuming she didn't just Wish herself into money, I wonder what sort of magic Masaki Sachiko is using to make money?
OK...
Setting a ring around Tokyo at about the outer rim distance of Kanagawa (roughly where we're entering), and looping around to Chiba on the east side, it looks like a total distance of vaguely 110 miles. A slightly tighter loop starting nearer to Yokohama would be about 100 miles. However, since we know that they roam not too terribly far from 15/16 (across their 'moat'), am expecting the slightly longer path. (This is a more accurate measure than my earlier quick guesstimate, which was effectively 50 to 75 miles.)
I don't expect more than 10 demons to be in the city center, and probably more like 4 to 6 based on earlier estimates of their cycling rate. So 30 to 35 demons distributed around roughly 110 miles means about 1 every 3 to 3.5 miles.
A lower bound of a 10 mile detection range means that for every targeted demon, at least 2 are likely to be in range to join in. Probably won't be more than 3, unless a few drift close together for a time.
If we kill or scare off the ones that join in, each new target is going to have the same count of 2-3 demons in reasonable detection range.
From the outer rim to the inner circle (rail lines about 5 miles or so from the very center of Tokyo) is more than 20 miles (where the lower bound was 10 miles), so should be safe from detection from most inner demons. At the very least, they are unlikely to be looking that far out, even if they're capable of it.
Note: Mt. Tanzawa is about 9 to 13 miles from most of the outer rim stuff, which means that our stationary observation post is within reasonable detection range of the nearby demons, even if they're unlikely to notice or poke at it when there's just a couple scouts there. However if we put the full stationary CC there, it's not unreasonable for it to attract attention from the outer rim demons, independent of Serena's activities.
On the other hand, if we can regularly clear the outer rim (as we leave a break period for empty spots to be filled by other wandering demons as they spread out to fill the empty space), it would be better to keep it out at the mountain than to risk detection by the beholder too early.
It looks like we should expect 2 adds (and be ready for 3) for every target, if we approach things cautiously. However they also don't show up instantly. We should be able to expect a moderate amount of time between arrivals, which could very well be enough to clear out a previous one to be ready for the next.
Given 20 teleport-capable demons out of 40, 1 to 2 of every set of 3-4 demons (target plus 2-3 adds) will tend to be a teleporter. We will want to be sure to kill at least 2 of the demons from each set, but if the third teleports away, leaving it up to Nagoya to track down (if it moves away from Tokyo) is not unreasonable.
Progression should be easy. Two attack runs per day, max; four days per week (one day break between each assault). All we need to do is be absolutely sure of how to handle up to four demons at a time, and that depends on how much Serena's aura affects them. Most likely we won't be dealing with more than 2 at a time, anyway.
We don't want the assault team to be in the aura more than a few minutes at a time, but that should be sufficient for a single attack run. Then have a couple hours of break between attack runs on the same day, and a day break between runs.
Even with scattering, as long as we don't attract the beholder's attention, we should be able to do nearly a full clear of class 3's within two weeks. The last handful will probably hole up in central Tokyo.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
Isn't there also TheEyes' deadman switch idea? It shouldn't be too hard to set up something that blares an alarm when your phones lose signal, or something where you have your phones in constant communication with Serena's phones so if Serena's phone looses signal a different alarm sounds.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
We'd still appreciate your opinion, even if you don't have solid numbers to back up your gut.
1. Haha, oh wow. I wonder how Yuka responds to constantly being assumed to be part of a cult. Does she protest that the serenes aren't a cult, or does she run with it?
2. Interesting. Considering this is the Puella Rumor Mill, and how the vast majority of Magical Girls regret making their wish, this is really damning of her in terms of ruthlessness and deceptiveness.
3. Shit. I'm betting SADS cases are also skyrocketing in the places suicide rates are. We may in fact need to send Serena globetrotting depending on how easily she can clear the city.
So... I've slept on the matter, and been giving it a lot of thought, and I'd like to offer an apology to @Aranfan for accusing him of bias. @Powerofmind was right to point out that I was doing the same thing.
I was actually surprised at the way people took my comments, and realize that my response said things that I didn't actually feel. In my haste and the heat of the moment, I used the wrong words, and implied things that I didn't mean to.
What I should have said is that we have different assumptions, and those assumptions are leading to very different conclusions. But at the time I still hadn't consciously thought through my assumptions and so I was assuming everyone would make the same conclusions, since they were "obvious."
So I'm going to try to articulate my assumptions, and then what I see other people making as assumptions, and you can correct me if I'm wrong about those, and then maybe we can see if we can come up with an approach that takes both possibilities into account.
I mean, I originally was planning on us having a support team just outside Serena's aura. My position has changed because the results of last turn has radically altered several of my previous assumptions.
I see our Vet Support team as a massive Glass Cannon. And with a glass cannon, the most important thing is to win initiative. If we hit the enemy first, then even if we don't wipe the enemy out, the enemy is busy responding to what we already did (putting up barriers, healing injuries, running away) which allows us to continue to to hold the initiative.
If you are playing a glass cannon, and you lose the initiative, things start to go very bad. In our instance I see that as likely causing a lot of deaths.
Originally, I was expecting that we would find patterns in the demon behavior, and that this would allow us to ambush them, gaining us the initiative.
The turn results however signal to me that the demons are far more intelligent than I had been giving them credit for, and conclude that they will likely attack our support group, and that they will win initiative if we attempt something like that.
Additionally the Training results revealed to me that our vet team is even more fragile than I had assumed. Kyouko on her own was able to break through multiple tandem barriers? That does not bode well.
This is why I started grumbling about how in the world were we supposed to effectively support Serena, because all my original ideas seemed invalidated by the new information.
After getting that out of my system, I reviewed the turn again, and realized that Serena & Co. were a lot tankier than I had originally thought.
This lead to my new idea, which is for Serena & Co. to attack on their own, and then retreat when the Demon's respond, drawing those demons into a trap where they can be killed by our support team, who in such a scenario will likely win initiative.
This is based on several assumptions about Serena.
First that a single class 3 demon will be no match for Serena & Co. alone, and that the only true threats are the floating eyeball, and the possibility of multiple teleporting demons jumping her.
Second, I assume that any teleporting demon jumping into Serena's aura will be disoriented by her aura, and so will lose its surprise round.
Third, I assume that when Serena & Co. retreat (as directed to do if multiple teleporters show up) that this will force the demons to spend time chasing her instead of attacking her. So it's a lot safer to run away for 15 minutes, than it is to keep on fighting against bad odds while waiting for reinforcements. This seems reasonable to me based on the typical depiction of the magical girl fights.
So that's why Plan Hit and Run seems reasonable to me with the new information.
Then someone brought up the worry about communication with Serena in the miasma and suggested that we place the support group at 1 kilometer to allow telepathic communication with Serena. To me this seems like a huge over commitment and exposure to risk for something that could be handled more safely by a smaller relay group. In fact after thinking it over some more I realized that we could even handle the relay with Ayase + Kyubey. Since as a non-magical girl, Ayase would not attract the demons attention.
My assumption there is that the demons will respond differently to a small group of girls than they will to a large group of girls.
A small group of girls I expect the demons will come after them one at a time, which allows for a much better chance of avoidance, and escape. While for a large group I fear the demons will coordinate a simultaneous attack. That's what I would do, and since the demons are intelligent, I sort of figure I should assume they could come up with at least that much strategy.
Additionally I assume that the demons are more likely to attack a large group of girls in range, than they are a handful of girls. Comparing them to Killer Whales, I see as more likely that they would attack a whole school of fish, rather than one or two off to the edge.
From the postings that other people are making, I feeling that worry about communications is not the real concern. I'm getting the impression that people are assuming that Serena is the glass cannon, and that our vet group is the tankier group. Additionally, I get the feeling that other people are assuming that the demons will react the same way to a small group of girls as a large group of girls, and therefor assume that a large group will not have to deal with anything more difficult than a small group - and therefore a large group has greater survival chances.
Perhaps people can tell me if those are accurate descriptions of their assumptions or not.
This then results in our different interpretations. People think that I am "abandoning Serena" because they assume Serena is the one in greater danger based on their assumptions. But if you use my assumptions, then instead it looks like other people are proposing we take on extreme risk for our vets for little benefit. Both of us then respond emotionally to what to us seems and obviously foolish course of actions.
In truth... we don't actually know which assumptions are correct. And we won't know until we get some interaction with the demons in an actual combat situation.
So I'd like to propose that we take the Stage 1 scenario, which is likely to be safer and less dangerous since it is nibbling at the edges, as use that as our test case to figure out important things like how Serena's aura impact the demon, and how fast a response we get from teleporters.
Based on those results we can come up with a plan for Stage 2. And I will keep my mind open that new information might make a close by support group necessary. I ask then that others keep their minds open to the possibility that that is not needed and unnecessary risk.
I was actually surprised at the way people took my comments, and realize that my response said things that I didn't actually feel. In my haste and the heat of the moment, I used the wrong words, and implied things that I didn't mean to.
What I should have said is that we have different assumptions, and those assumptions are leading to very different conclusions. But at the time I still hadn't consciously thought through my assumptions and so I was assuming everyone would make the same conclusions, since they were "obvious."
So I'm going to try to articulate my assumptions, and then what I see other people making as assumptions, and you can correct me if I'm wrong about those, and then maybe we can see if we can come up with an approach that takes both possibilities into account.
I mean, I originally was planning on us having a support team just outside Serena's aura. My position has changed because the results of last turn has radically altered several of my previous assumptions.
I see our Vet Support team as a massive Glass Cannon. And with a glass cannon, the most important thing is to win initiative. If we hit the enemy first, then even if we don't wipe the enemy out, the enemy is busy responding to what we already did (putting up barriers, healing injuries, running away) which allows us to continue to to hold the initiative.
If you are playing a glass cannon, and you lose the initiative, things start to go very bad. In our instance I see that as likely causing a lot of deaths.
Originally, I was expecting that we would find patterns in the demon behavior, and that this would allow us to ambush them, gaining us the initiative.
The turn results however signal to me that the demons are far more intelligent than I had been giving them credit for, and conclude that they will likely attack our support group, and that they will win initiative if we attempt something like that.
Additionally the Training results revealed to me that our vet team is even more fragile than I had assumed. Kyouko on her own was able to break through multiple tandem barriers? That does not bode well.
This is why I started grumbling about how in the world were we supposed to effectively support Serena, because all my original ideas seemed invalidated by the new information.
After getting that out of my system, I reviewed the turn again, and realized that Serena & Co. were a lot tankier than I had originally thought.
This lead to my new idea, which is for Serena & Co. to attack on their own, and then retreat when the Demon's respond, drawing those demons into a trap where they can be killed by our support team, who in such a scenario will likely win initiative.
This is based on several assumptions about Serena.
First that a single class 3 demon will be no match for Serena & Co. alone, and that the only true threats are the floating eyeball, and the possibility of multiple teleporting demons jumping her.
Second, I assume that any teleporting demon jumping into Serena's aura will be disoriented by her aura, and so will lose its surprise round.
Third, I assume that when Serena & Co. retreat (as directed to do if multiple teleporters show up) that this will force the demons to spend time chasing her instead of attacking her. So it's a lot safer to run away for 15 minutes, than it is to keep on fighting against bad odds while waiting for reinforcements. This seems reasonable to me based on the typical depiction of the magical girl fights.
So that's why Plan Hit and Run seems reasonable to me with the new information.
Then someone brought up the worry about communication with Serena in the miasma and suggested that we place the support group at 1 kilometer to allow telepathic communication with Serena. To me this seems like a huge over commitment and exposure to risk for something that could be handled more safely by a smaller relay group. In fact after thinking it over some more I realized that we could even handle the relay with Ayase + Kyubey. Since as a non-magical girl, Ayase would not attract the demons attention.
My assumption there is that the demons will respond differently to a small group of girls than they will to a large group of girls.
A small group of girls I expect the demons will come after them one at a time, which allows for a much better chance of avoidance, and escape. While for a large group I fear the demons will coordinate a simultaneous attack. That's what I would do, and since the demons are intelligent, I sort of figure I should assume they could come up with at least that much strategy.
Additionally I assume that the demons are more likely to attack a large group of girls in range, than they are a handful of girls. Comparing them to Killer Whales, I see as more likely that they would attack a whole school of fish, rather than one or two off to the edge.
From the postings that other people are making, I feeling that worry about communications is not the real concern. I'm getting the impression that people are assuming that Serena is the glass cannon, and that our vet group is the tankier group. Additionally, I get the feeling that other people are assuming that the demons will react the same way to a small group of girls as a large group of girls, and therefor assume that a large group will not have to deal with anything more difficult than a small group - and therefore a large group has greater survival chances.
Perhaps people can tell me if those are accurate descriptions of their assumptions or not.
This then results in our different interpretations. People think that I am "abandoning Serena" because they assume Serena is the one in greater danger based on their assumptions. But if you use my assumptions, then instead it looks like other people are proposing we take on extreme risk for our vets for little benefit. Both of us then respond emotionally to what to us seems and obviously foolish course of actions.
In truth... we don't actually know which assumptions are correct. And we won't know until we get some interaction with the demons in an actual combat situation.
So I'd like to propose that we take the Stage 1 scenario, which is likely to be safer and less dangerous since it is nibbling at the edges, as use that as our test case to figure out important things like how Serena's aura impact the demon, and how fast a response we get from teleporters.
Based on those results we can come up with a plan for Stage 2. And I will keep my mind open that new information might make a close by support group necessary. I ask then that others keep their minds open to the possibility that that is not needed and unnecessary risk.
There's not much point in that. We know Serena is going into a miasma, so the signal cutting out doesn't tell us anything. What we need to know is when she needs help while she's in the miasma.
Part of the purpose of the bunker design was to address this issue. Still squishy on the inside, but layering up defenses on the outside.
Also, would point out that from my estimates of the distances involved, and the demons' detection radius, your assumption that a stationary command center will be safe from such attacks is also not necessarily valid. We know from 15/16 that border demons are only mildly averse to traveling outside their control zone, so if a large group does grab their attention, they can easily leave it and head towards us.
Kyouko on her own was able to break through one barrier, multiple times, not through multiple barriers at once (except when she bypassed them entirely by attacking from below). It's an indication that the layered barriers are necessary.
Reasonable basic assumption, but the conclusions you derive from it don't necessarily hold.
The scouting appeared to imply that any attempt by magical girls to cross the barrier had the demons attacking them. Now, whether they treat groups trying to move inward differently than groups trying to escape, we don't know, but the baseline assumption would appear to be that, while they might be more aggressive in going after large groups (ie: treat them differently), there is no reason to expect them to ignore smaller groups (ie: be less likely to attack).
Note: Slightly different assumptions on "large groups attracting attention" between the stationary CC base and comparing with a small group moving with Serena.
Basically, if moving around within the border zone, I expect the demons to attack any groups they can detect. In that case, the only difference between a small group and a large group is probably how quickly they respond relative to how far away they are (the laziness principal).
For the case of the remote base, it's a question of how tempted they are to cross our 'moat' to reach the target, when their 'job' is to remain on the border. The more magical girls, the more likely they are to cross that zone.
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
It would tell her if her support group has been jumped
Hm. Yes, if she's not in the miasma herself, already. And if she's close enough to make a quick difference (ie: they're at the edge of her aura, not 15 minutes away). Though in that case, she'd be in telepathy range anyway.
However, I'd also point out that the original quote that you responded to was about how to find out if Serena needed assistance, not the support group.
Basically, we have three communications situations:
- If Serena needs assistance, she will necessarily be in a miasma. How does she let anyone know she needs help?
- If the support team needs assistance, and Serena is not currently in a miasma, phone connectivity kinda works, but needs constant audio activity to be useful, and is hindered by distance because Serena's team doesn't have a teleporter.
- If the support team needs assistance, and Serena is currently in a miasma, how do they let her know?
Case #2 doesn't really even need the phones, because the support team has teleporters who can go grab Serena immediately, since she's not in her own fight.
Case #1 and #3 both have Serena inside a miasma, engaged in her own fight. In neither case will the telephone connection have any meaning.
Last edited:
Minor aside --
Mami's power:
She is not affected by Serena's hope aura.
She is not affected by a demon's depression miasma.
She was not affected by the world shift that made the two girls sisters.
She is affected by Taura's telepathy.
She can be teleported along with others.
She can be healed by magic.
(Were there other specific hints that I'm forgetting?)
Possible conclusion: While she can be directly affected by magic just like anyone else, she can't be affected by wishes and their side-effects.
Source of that power: unknown
Ramifications of that power: unknown
This doesn't feel complete. Rather than merely not being affected, Serena's hope aura was something Mami could feel trying to get inside of her, and she actively resisted that.
Mami's power:
She is not affected by Serena's hope aura.
She is not affected by a demon's depression miasma.
She was not affected by the world shift that made the two girls sisters.
She is affected by Taura's telepathy.
She can be teleported along with others.
She can be healed by magic.
(Were there other specific hints that I'm forgetting?)
Possible conclusion: While she can be directly affected by magic just like anyone else, she can't be affected by wishes and their side-effects.
Source of that power: unknown
Ramifications of that power: unknown
This doesn't feel complete. Rather than merely not being affected, Serena's hope aura was something Mami could feel trying to get inside of her, and she actively resisted that.
That's probably correct for the non-teleport demons.
I think we also have to worry about the possibility of the demons sending out a call for reinforcements, and the teleporters traveling there rather quickly.
They'll probably arrive in staggered numbers. Though if there is a large body of girls nearby they might coordinate an attack on them.
We can probably mitigate that by placing the CC on the west side, so outside the 10 mile range.
Well, since clairvoyance can reach beyond 10 miles, we can put them outside the demon detection range.
Still, that is why I do have contingencies for attacks on the CC. We probably can't mitigate the risk entirely, I just want to make that as rare an occurrence as possible.
I mean... if the CC gets attacked there twice during the clearing operations, that's only two times we have to run the risk. If we get attacked every single mission, then we have 10 to 20 times where we have to go through the risk of a battle at the CC.
What do you think of the idea of Ayase + Kyubey to relay communications?
Hmm... maybe...
What about the risk of greater coordination against a larger group?
Aranfan
Team Plasma Grunt
Is there such a risk? I don't think we really know. I mean there have been "fortified positions" in Tokyo that took months or even years to fall. They might find too large a concentration of Magical Girls something to avoid until forces have been gathered and coordinated with.