That's a good point. XCom mentality doesn't really mean psychotic, so much as being less obsessed over quality of life issues than we are.
Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)
- Thread starter inverted_helix
- Start date
Another possibility is that one of the original founding members was an heiress to a massive family fortune.
Or maybe both ideas are true and Hino really is a Yakuza Princess.
We just don't know enough about their internals to really guess correctly. There are a dozen ways they could be rich. Their actual internal political structure has many different ways it could work. They could very well be in the "nobody dies" state by now, even. Really, not terribly surprising that if they're saving girls from Tokyo by putting them in cold storage, and that they're proactively hardline against class 3 threats, they might be a lot more concerned about their girls' safety than I put into the speculation.
Let me clarify the reasons for the assumptions I made, and some of how the trade-offs fall out.
Basically, the speculation was primarily based on them largely carrying over their lower risk-averseness level from their earlier days. helix mentioned they were at one point hitting 10% losses per month, and I wanted to see what sort of production advantage a group inured to such matters could have if they were willing to take the slightly higher risk for significantly better efficiency.
I deliberately left out various safety levels (a somewhat arbitrary selection; mainly selected because they were player ideas to squeeze out a little extra safety, rather than things I'd expect just about any group to do) just to allow a modest death rate to even be possible, just to see what sort of losses that would even entail.
Even with those allowances, it was only hitting about 1 hunting death per month for a territory of size 450 (0.2%). Compare that to an in-the-wild death rate of something like one death every 6 to 9 months (11 to 16%), or a nominally better group setup of one death every 2 years (4%). It is at that point already extremely good, despite being as poor a condition as I can justify.
Pre-rotating tactics, going from solo to pairs (completely safe, even with lower casualty reductions) cost 25 meguca. So a group that's not averse to casualties could use 25 fewer hunters at the cost of 1 death per month.
If they value that trade-off in favor of the 25 extra meguca, then they would keep that trade-off with the addition of rotating tactics, as 3 deaths is still not very high (0.7% relative to territory size). However, obviously if they're willing to take the meguca hit and drop from solo to pairs, their death rate is going to be back at 0.
Additional note: If their death rate was anything above 0, that would imply that they could take girls out of Tokyo cold storage as replacements, since each death would open up a spot in what they could support. Since the implication is that all the cold storage girls are still in cold storage, that implies a 0 death rate.
Let me clarify the reasons for the assumptions I made, and some of how the trade-offs fall out.
Basically, the speculation was primarily based on them largely carrying over their lower risk-averseness level from their earlier days. helix mentioned they were at one point hitting 10% losses per month, and I wanted to see what sort of production advantage a group inured to such matters could have if they were willing to take the slightly higher risk for significantly better efficiency.
I deliberately left out various safety levels (a somewhat arbitrary selection; mainly selected because they were player ideas to squeeze out a little extra safety, rather than things I'd expect just about any group to do) just to allow a modest death rate to even be possible, just to see what sort of losses that would even entail.
Even with those allowances, it was only hitting about 1 hunting death per month for a territory of size 450 (0.2%). Compare that to an in-the-wild death rate of something like one death every 6 to 9 months (11 to 16%), or a nominally better group setup of one death every 2 years (4%). It is at that point already extremely good, despite being as poor a condition as I can justify.
Pre-rotating tactics, going from solo to pairs (completely safe, even with lower casualty reductions) cost 25 meguca. So a group that's not averse to casualties could use 25 fewer hunters at the cost of 1 death per month.
If they value that trade-off in favor of the 25 extra meguca, then they would keep that trade-off with the addition of rotating tactics, as 3 deaths is still not very high (0.7% relative to territory size). However, obviously if they're willing to take the meguca hit and drop from solo to pairs, their death rate is going to be back at 0.
Additional note: If their death rate was anything above 0, that would imply that they could take girls out of Tokyo cold storage as replacements, since each death would open up a spot in what they could support. Since the implication is that all the cold storage girls are still in cold storage, that implies a 0 death rate.
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
It could also imply that they're not exactly willing to allow these girls to join as active members. I doubt they'll put them in the inner circle, and vassals seem to get some say in how they handle their own territory so they can probably veto strangers joining up.
True. On the other hand, people put in cold storage for that reason are still being removed from the meguca pool. Logistically it's the same as a death, though it has a very different impact on what the assumed allowance for death rate is.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
No, it merely implies that they are currently gaining "recruits" from tokyo faster than they are losing people.
OK, back to actual vote proposals.
I'm going to go with a bit of a hybrid between the Grant and the Trade approaches, with Nagoya. We're presenting it as a trade, but we're putting up enough flags to show that we'd appreciate it if they consider the value of the actions we're taking when deciding on what they can offer us in funding.
Added this:
Negotiations (Nagoya) (1 Mami): Given the solution in Tokyo, we feel a Final Solution is necessry. We have evaluated the rate of progress that is possible with our cooperation with Nagoya's current approach, and cannot see it as a feasible solution within the time limit before Tokyo completely collapses. Instead, we have acquired assistance that we feel will allow us to deal with the entirety of the Class 3 problem within one or two months. Now, even that is not sufficient on its own. We will still need a solid amount of assistance, and we believe Nagoya has the necessary strength to turn this from a difficult game of whack-a-mole into a complete win.
To that end, we'd like to ask for their cooperation in resolving this matter. Negotiation points on the table:
1) That Nagoya play a cooperative, strategic role with their Tokyo strike teams. The major risk that we cannot handle ourselves is intercepting fleeing class 3 demons before they reach populated, but weakly defended areas such as Kofu or Nagano, at least until the beholder is dealt with. Once the beholder is dealt with, things will go far more quickly.
2) That we need funding to fully enact all contingencies in this scenario. We are willing to trade assets (such as cubes and research) for this funding, however such minor trades do not come close to the value a cleaned up Tokyo represents. Cubes in particular, since you're just providing them as aid to the locals of Tokyo, don't compare to what the locals will be able (and forced) to harvest in the immediate aftermath.
3) While research is on the table for trade, we are more concerned with the long-term issues of the value of such research to Tokyo as a whole, in the future. We believe a more cooperative sharing of research by all immediately concerned parties will be of far greater worth to all parties in the long run. Essentially, Tokyo will not be able to afford 'typical' prices for research and development, yet we believe that them having access to a great deal of it will be a huge boon to everyone as they recover and begin growing as a city. While we can provide these techs as exchange for the funding we need, we do not want our requests right now to be a hindrance to further cooperation as tech production is expanded more freely.
Our intent is to complete preparations this month, and begin operations next month.
~~
In addition, I revised the gossipmonger text, added the Open Relations With Large Organizations action. Also revised Kyouko's charm production description due to the change in what's being created.
I'm currently at 55/56 vets. Hesitant to commit to the other trade deals being suggested just yet. Are there any other ideas of stuff we can do during the preparation month? I have the nagging feeling we're forgetting something.
I think the most particular that we're leaving out right now is more specific discussions with Sendai, since they're one of the other major groups, and represent the northeast corridor out of Tokyo. The Open Relations action doesn't have anything specific for those we contact; just the most trivial contact.
I'm going to go with a bit of a hybrid between the Grant and the Trade approaches, with Nagoya. We're presenting it as a trade, but we're putting up enough flags to show that we'd appreciate it if they consider the value of the actions we're taking when deciding on what they can offer us in funding.
Added this:
Negotiations (Nagoya) (1 Mami): Given the solution in Tokyo, we feel a Final Solution is necessry. We have evaluated the rate of progress that is possible with our cooperation with Nagoya's current approach, and cannot see it as a feasible solution within the time limit before Tokyo completely collapses. Instead, we have acquired assistance that we feel will allow us to deal with the entirety of the Class 3 problem within one or two months. Now, even that is not sufficient on its own. We will still need a solid amount of assistance, and we believe Nagoya has the necessary strength to turn this from a difficult game of whack-a-mole into a complete win.
To that end, we'd like to ask for their cooperation in resolving this matter. Negotiation points on the table:
1) That Nagoya play a cooperative, strategic role with their Tokyo strike teams. The major risk that we cannot handle ourselves is intercepting fleeing class 3 demons before they reach populated, but weakly defended areas such as Kofu or Nagano, at least until the beholder is dealt with. Once the beholder is dealt with, things will go far more quickly.
2) That we need funding to fully enact all contingencies in this scenario. We are willing to trade assets (such as cubes and research) for this funding, however such minor trades do not come close to the value a cleaned up Tokyo represents. Cubes in particular, since you're just providing them as aid to the locals of Tokyo, don't compare to what the locals will be able (and forced) to harvest in the immediate aftermath.
3) While research is on the table for trade, we are more concerned with the long-term issues of the value of such research to Tokyo as a whole, in the future. We believe a more cooperative sharing of research by all immediately concerned parties will be of far greater worth to all parties in the long run. Essentially, Tokyo will not be able to afford 'typical' prices for research and development, yet we believe that them having access to a great deal of it will be a huge boon to everyone as they recover and begin growing as a city. While we can provide these techs as exchange for the funding we need, we do not want our requests right now to be a hindrance to further cooperation as tech production is expanded more freely.
Our intent is to complete preparations this month, and begin operations next month.
~~
In addition, I revised the gossipmonger text, added the Open Relations With Large Organizations action. Also revised Kyouko's charm production description due to the change in what's being created.
I'm currently at 55/56 vets. Hesitant to commit to the other trade deals being suggested just yet. Are there any other ideas of stuff we can do during the preparation month? I have the nagging feeling we're forgetting something.
I think the most particular that we're leaving out right now is more specific discussions with Sendai, since they're one of the other major groups, and represent the northeast corridor out of Tokyo. The Open Relations action doesn't have anything specific for those we contact; just the most trivial contact.
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@Kinematics maybe we need a trainer/tutor for Serena? I mean, we're going through all this training to fight the class 3/4 specifically, but Serena and her group may not even have basic combat training, let alone our suite of demon-specific combat training. It's not like they've ever needed it before this, after all.
Good point. Could be a good idea to try for something like that. How would we handle it with respect to the time limits within Serena's aura? We can readily discuss theoreticals over the video conference system, but hands-on training is important too.
At least part of it would have to be telepresence, but any actual hands-on training could be done by girls who can't be part of the big fight, the ones with jobs for example.
Here are the updates to my plan. Keeping the cube trade for money, adding the following:
EDIT: Posted new post with full update
I feel this is too... vague. It expects them to give us value on a promise to do something that they cannot do, and they ahve no reason to believe we can do. We just don't have sufficient trust between us yet to do this without having to take a huge discount in value of what we are offering. Let's keep it simple stupid and just make the trades we need to make to get the money we need.
I object to this. We are not planning to share our research with Tokyo for free. Why do you keep pushing this? No one else is pushing for this. We have made zero preparations for this.
We are going to give Tokyo our Hunting Manual for free. Just like we do for every magical girl group we deal with.
Yes, we need to tell Sendai and Niigata to prepare, I'll add that.
Aren't these things covered by our Training for Tokyo action? I thought I explicitly mentioned it...
I wasn't explicitly mentioning it, but heavily implied.
Updated to the following:
Okay, ended up making edits throughout the diplomacy section. Here are all the things I have changed:
Broke out the Gossipmonger and the Elite Tokyo recruit actions into separate things.
@inverted_helix Are these prices reasonable?
EDIT: Posted new post with full update
I feel this is too... vague. It expects them to give us value on a promise to do something that they cannot do, and they ahve no reason to believe we can do. We just don't have sufficient trust between us yet to do this without having to take a huge discount in value of what we are offering. Let's keep it simple stupid and just make the trades we need to make to get the money we need.
I object to this. We are not planning to share our research with Tokyo for free. Why do you keep pushing this? No one else is pushing for this. We have made zero preparations for this.
We are going to give Tokyo our Hunting Manual for free. Just like we do for every magical girl group we deal with.
Yes, we need to tell Sendai and Niigata to prepare, I'll add that.
Aren't these things covered by our Training for Tokyo action? I thought I explicitly mentioned it...
I wasn't explicitly mentioning it, but heavily implied.
Updated to the following:
Okay, ended up making edits throughout the diplomacy section. Here are all the things I have changed:
Broke out the Gossipmonger and the Elite Tokyo recruit actions into separate things.
@inverted_helix Are these prices reasonable?
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(Dubious canonicity) Omake: Yakuman
Omake: Yakuman
Hisa sat in front of the mirror in her bedroom, running a brush through her hair. It was a bright red, which edged towards strawberry blonde if allowed to bleach in the sunlight for too long. It had just enough curl to make her look silly if she kept it too short, but left it an untamable mess if she let it grow long, so she'd settled on a happy medium where it just touched her shoulders.
It was early in the morning — early enough that many wouldn't say it was morning at all, as the sun had yet to rise. Today she'd traded shifts with Ayako for breakfast duty, a trade that Ayako had eagerly, if a bit shamefully, accepted. Eagerly because she really wasn't a morning person, but shamefully because Hisa wasn't a normal resident of the Serenissima house, still having family to call her own.
Still, Hisa got her way, and so here she was, preparing to leave home at O'dark 30, for the sake of someone who needed just the right hand, at just the right time.
~~
Her favorite color was blue. Her favorite game was mahjong. Her favorite movie quote was, "Never tell me the odds."
Hisa was one of the older girls among the Serenes, just a bit younger than Mami herself. She was also one of their premiere analysts, though many found her troublesome to work with. Most of the others couldn't decide if she was lucky, unlucky, or just crazy. Still, they couldn't deny she had a knack for it, and a natural aura of leadership to keep things organized.
Her wish had been pointlessly selfish. She had been an exceptional mahjong player in junior high, yet found that when she transferred high schools after her father moved due to his job, there was no club for her to join. Instead, she had an empty room that she wiled away the hours in, waiting endlessly for the friends that she knew must eventually come.
And then a wish had been offered.
She didn't need the wish. She knew that what she waited for would reach her eventually. But still... It was tempting enough to simply ask, to make it happen that much sooner. It was the one time she broke her own rules.
And so, the friends she asked to come play with her came, but they were not the friends she expected, and they were not playing the game she imagined.
~~
Hisa let her bike drift to a stop in front of the Serene's main house, settling it among the many others under a small awning. She entered the house without knocking, not wanting to disturb those still sleeping. Inside the kitchen, she found Aiko already pulling out ingredients and dishes. They waved and smiled at each other. As Hisa put on her apron, she said, "I think sausages would be good for today's lunch. That OK?"
"Sure," replied Aiko. "We should have enough on hand. I remember someone bought a bunch the other day."
"Yep," nodded Hisa. "I'll get the pan heated up then."
~~
Hisa's magic didn't follow any of the 'standard' categories, so she got lumped in with 'everything else'. Her wish had nothing to do with protecting, or healing, or seeing things far away. She didn't wish to teleport, or hide, or create a fake reality. She just wanted friends who could understand and play the game she found so fascinating. And if perhaps a bit of that fascination, and a hint of pride, colored what she felt as she made that wish, well...
People used to love to joke about her attacks early on, but such amusement had long since faded to normalcy. Each attack, named after a winning mahjong move, expressed its own unique power. Daisangen, the dragons. Haitei Raoyue, the moon. Rinshan Kaihou, the mountain. The longer she practiced as a magical girl, the more of them she found opened up to her, and it was always fun to impress people with the latest bit of showiness she'd discovered.
But that wasn't what her actual magic was.
That, it turned out, was a reflection of her skills as a mahjong player. The ability to read the flow of the game, anticipate the opponents' actions, and instinctively grasp what was and wasn't likely to happen. Or, more romantically, to glimpse the hand of fate, to see the designs of destiny.
It wasn't the same as knowing the odds. The odds were probabilities, numbers that defined the average after an infinite number of repetitions. But what actually happened was only one action, not an infinite number. You may have an 80% chance of success, but you may end up aiming for that 20%. You may only have a 10% chance of winning, but that still means you can get 'lucky'.
What Hisa saw was that random chance wasn't random. There was always a series of events that led to that final outcome, and once you knew what they were, the outcome became inevitable.
The people around her saw it as her taking inordinate risks, of betting on the long shot instead of the sure thing. And they were, time after time, proven wrong.
Hisa was "lucky". Or perhaps crazy, for trying things that everyone knew didn't have a chance to succeed. She didn't always "win" her bets, but she never got upset about her losses. It was, to her, just another growing experience. Another chance to learn a new yakuman.
And so, she sought out things that seemed to have low odds of success, and tried to figure out how to make sure they happened.
In mahjong, Hisa tended to select bad waits — waiting on tiles that seemed to have minimal chance to show up. But that was as much a psychological game as anything, since the opponents could predict the 'good' tiles she might be expecting. She chose the 'bad' wait, not because it was 'bad', but because she could see how the expectations of those who lived by the laws of probability forced them to give her exactly what she needed. Or what she thought they needed.
~~
"Hey, Kaoru!" Akeno chirped out, voice coming from the living room. "You're up early today!" She soon entered the kitchen, followed by the other girl.
"Just had a good night's sleep, and the smell of breakfast was too much to stay in bed for," replied Kaoru.
"Lunch, not breakfast!" Hisa corrected her, with a small smile. The right temptation at the right time.
Hisa sat in front of the mirror in her bedroom, running a brush through her hair. It was a bright red, which edged towards strawberry blonde if allowed to bleach in the sunlight for too long. It had just enough curl to make her look silly if she kept it too short, but left it an untamable mess if she let it grow long, so she'd settled on a happy medium where it just touched her shoulders.
It was early in the morning — early enough that many wouldn't say it was morning at all, as the sun had yet to rise. Today she'd traded shifts with Ayako for breakfast duty, a trade that Ayako had eagerly, if a bit shamefully, accepted. Eagerly because she really wasn't a morning person, but shamefully because Hisa wasn't a normal resident of the Serenissima house, still having family to call her own.
Still, Hisa got her way, and so here she was, preparing to leave home at O'dark 30, for the sake of someone who needed just the right hand, at just the right time.
~~
Her favorite color was blue. Her favorite game was mahjong. Her favorite movie quote was, "Never tell me the odds."
Hisa was one of the older girls among the Serenes, just a bit younger than Mami herself. She was also one of their premiere analysts, though many found her troublesome to work with. Most of the others couldn't decide if she was lucky, unlucky, or just crazy. Still, they couldn't deny she had a knack for it, and a natural aura of leadership to keep things organized.
Her wish had been pointlessly selfish. She had been an exceptional mahjong player in junior high, yet found that when she transferred high schools after her father moved due to his job, there was no club for her to join. Instead, she had an empty room that she wiled away the hours in, waiting endlessly for the friends that she knew must eventually come.
And then a wish had been offered.
She didn't need the wish. She knew that what she waited for would reach her eventually. But still... It was tempting enough to simply ask, to make it happen that much sooner. It was the one time she broke her own rules.
And so, the friends she asked to come play with her came, but they were not the friends she expected, and they were not playing the game she imagined.
~~
Hisa let her bike drift to a stop in front of the Serene's main house, settling it among the many others under a small awning. She entered the house without knocking, not wanting to disturb those still sleeping. Inside the kitchen, she found Aiko already pulling out ingredients and dishes. They waved and smiled at each other. As Hisa put on her apron, she said, "I think sausages would be good for today's lunch. That OK?"
"Sure," replied Aiko. "We should have enough on hand. I remember someone bought a bunch the other day."
"Yep," nodded Hisa. "I'll get the pan heated up then."
~~
Hisa's magic didn't follow any of the 'standard' categories, so she got lumped in with 'everything else'. Her wish had nothing to do with protecting, or healing, or seeing things far away. She didn't wish to teleport, or hide, or create a fake reality. She just wanted friends who could understand and play the game she found so fascinating. And if perhaps a bit of that fascination, and a hint of pride, colored what she felt as she made that wish, well...
People used to love to joke about her attacks early on, but such amusement had long since faded to normalcy. Each attack, named after a winning mahjong move, expressed its own unique power. Daisangen, the dragons. Haitei Raoyue, the moon. Rinshan Kaihou, the mountain. The longer she practiced as a magical girl, the more of them she found opened up to her, and it was always fun to impress people with the latest bit of showiness she'd discovered.
But that wasn't what her actual magic was.
That, it turned out, was a reflection of her skills as a mahjong player. The ability to read the flow of the game, anticipate the opponents' actions, and instinctively grasp what was and wasn't likely to happen. Or, more romantically, to glimpse the hand of fate, to see the designs of destiny.
It wasn't the same as knowing the odds. The odds were probabilities, numbers that defined the average after an infinite number of repetitions. But what actually happened was only one action, not an infinite number. You may have an 80% chance of success, but you may end up aiming for that 20%. You may only have a 10% chance of winning, but that still means you can get 'lucky'.
What Hisa saw was that random chance wasn't random. There was always a series of events that led to that final outcome, and once you knew what they were, the outcome became inevitable.
The people around her saw it as her taking inordinate risks, of betting on the long shot instead of the sure thing. And they were, time after time, proven wrong.
Hisa was "lucky". Or perhaps crazy, for trying things that everyone knew didn't have a chance to succeed. She didn't always "win" her bets, but she never got upset about her losses. It was, to her, just another growing experience. Another chance to learn a new yakuman.
And so, she sought out things that seemed to have low odds of success, and tried to figure out how to make sure they happened.
In mahjong, Hisa tended to select bad waits — waiting on tiles that seemed to have minimal chance to show up. But that was as much a psychological game as anything, since the opponents could predict the 'good' tiles she might be expecting. She chose the 'bad' wait, not because it was 'bad', but because she could see how the expectations of those who lived by the laws of probability forced them to give her exactly what she needed. Or what she thought they needed.
~~
"Hey, Kaoru!" Akeno chirped out, voice coming from the living room. "You're up early today!" She soon entered the kitchen, followed by the other girl.
"Just had a good night's sleep, and the smell of breakfast was too much to stay in bed for," replied Kaoru.
"Lunch, not breakfast!" Hisa corrected her, with a small smile. The right temptation at the right time.
I first noted the lead analyst as having strawberry blonde hair back when Seto was touring the house. Later I named Hisa for that position.
If you're not familiar with the series, Hisa Takei was the president of the Kiyosumi Mahjong Club in the series, Saki. She was noted as being exceptionally perceptive of people's strengths and weaknesses, with good foresight and a scheming mind. Her particular foible in playing the game was the "bad wait" — waiting for the most unlikely of winning tiles, which seemed to inevitably make their way to her. I rebuilt that idea as a power that appears like luck from the outside, but could also be described as precognition (which it's not). It's more like betting based on fate, instead of probability, but needing appropriate skill and insight (and perhaps a personal nudge) to back it up.
I tied it here to the earlier Morning Jog omake, but Hisa rarely ventures out of her primary role as analyst. She feels it's her duty to watch for those "crazy ideas" that may lead to a breakthrough, that she mentioned to the Coalition girls, because she's far better suited to that than just about anyone else.
If you're not familiar with the series, Hisa Takei was the president of the Kiyosumi Mahjong Club in the series, Saki. She was noted as being exceptionally perceptive of people's strengths and weaknesses, with good foresight and a scheming mind. Her particular foible in playing the game was the "bad wait" — waiting for the most unlikely of winning tiles, which seemed to inevitably make their way to her. I rebuilt that idea as a power that appears like luck from the outside, but could also be described as precognition (which it's not). It's more like betting based on fate, instead of probability, but needing appropriate skill and insight (and perhaps a personal nudge) to back it up.
I tied it here to the earlier Morning Jog omake, but Hisa rarely ventures out of her primary role as analyst. She feels it's her duty to watch for those "crazy ideas" that may lead to a breakthrough, that she mentioned to the Coalition girls, because she's far better suited to that than just about anyone else.
This is underpriced. I'm not even sure what he $60 is for considering it's so small an amount, but you will need much more time than this to contact the difficult to contact remnants in Tokyo.
You're asking an awful lot of them, it will take significant negotiating.
I'm likely just going to draft out something terrible in exchange for getting it done at this point. I just can't get something good for it.
This is actually a similar power, though lesser in magnitude, to one of the ones sketched out for being a major player in the other groups.
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Heh, I know. I'll probably change it, but the wording was amusing at the time.
In this case, I want to play Hisa — not just take the simple, sure thing, but to stretch for something a little bit more.
The problem, as always, is that this is ultimately just a die roll, on an event that, once set in motion, cannot be changed. Naturally there's a tendency to only choose the absolutely safest result, but in this case I'm going to hold onto the idea of trying for something a little bit grander.
I believe I already explained my ideas for how such dissemination would actually take place: subscription teaching. It's not free as in 'beer', but free as in 'available to everyone'.
Will update the training stuff as well.
@inverted_helix -
A few questions on pricing that are currently undefined.
Gossipmonger:
Currently using the 1.5 vets you noted as necessary for this.
Negotiations with Nagoya:
Scouting:
Speaking of which:
And Kyuubey:
A few questions on pricing that are currently undefined.
Gossipmonger:
Currently assuming we need to actually provide the contact equipment (cell phones), and marked it as $20 each for 100 phones (our normal cell phone cost). Is this correct? Is this necessary? And if so, what would the cube charge from Kyuubey be for passing them out?
Currently using the 1.5 vets you noted as necessary for this.
Negotiations with Nagoya:
Is 1.0 Mami sufficient for this? It's rather long since I added specific negotiation points, but I'm not sure how that might relate to negotiation time. I can add another vet if that would be appropriate.
Scouting:
In the event that the Safe Passage with area 15/16 fails, is it feasible to simply teleport Team Taya to Mt. Hakone for observation, since we would not actually be passing through their territory? (Possibly make another attempt next month before the expedition
Speaking of which:
Can we conditionally offer extra incentives if they're too reluctant to allow this? I expect them to be highly paranoid about this, but since I have Mami working with Nagoya, there are no other direct boosts available.
And Kyuubey:
Can we get a cube price on the info request?
@Elder Haman - Rereading your negotiation section with Nagoya, I'm finding it a pretty decent approach. I don't directly object to your proposal, but still want a slightly revised approach to the negotiations. I will likely rewrite mine again later.
You're pretty much describing probability manipulation, right? Another way to think about the power is that Hisa gets a glimpse at all the potential, possible, unknown futures, and gets to eliminate a certain number of them. In other words, this power is pure, distilled anti-entropy: if the Incubators had wet dreams, they'd be having wet dreams about a Legendary with this power.
Oh yeah... I'm sure that things will change.
Cellphones, and I made a typo, should have been $600 ($20 x 30)
Okay... so bump it up another 0.5 meguca?
Not sure you need 100 cellphones, as there are only 30 Elites left in Tokyo.
@inverted_helix Okay, so with those new adjustments I'm 0.5 vets over committed and I need to find somewhere to save half a vet. The only two locations I can think of are these two trade deals. So I'm wondering if I can still get any of these things with 0.5 vets less:
Trade Deal - Kofu (1 vet): Particularly note our intent towards Tokyo next month, as well as Taya's scouting this month. Discuss any aid they might be willing to offer.
— Warn them about the possibilities of class 3 demons fleeing Tokyo and attacking them. We are trying to arrange for protection, but if a class 3 demon does break through to them recommend that they immediately flee south and take shelter with us until we can deal with the threat.
— Ask them to warn the girls in Saku and in between, and pass on the same offer of shelter and aid.
— Would they be willing to have clairvoyants aid us in watching the battle so that we can direct reinforcements, etc?
— Would they let us hire some of their girls to hunt in our territory at 3 cubes per vets hunting in pairs, 2 cubes per girls hunting in packs? How many?
— Would they hire a clairvoyant to us to help with a hunting dispatch team in our area? What price?
— Cubes for money trade ratios
— Are they interested in our Tandem Casting Tech? Negotiate prices.
— Give them a copy of our Hunting Manual, and our Serene History booklet
So here the ones in red we have to do. I assume that just warning wouldn't cost us anything. I'd also prioritize the ones in yellow. Can this drop by 0.5 vets if we drop one of the other two items? Or both of those items?
Trade Deal - Coalition (0.5 vet): Particularly note our intent towards Tokyo next month. Discuss any aid they might be willing to offer.
— Would they be willing to have clairvoyants aid us in watching the battle so that we can direct reinforcements, etc?
— Would they let us hire some of their girls to hunt in our territory at 3 cubes per vets hunting in pairs, 2 cubes per girls hunting in packs? How many?
— Would they hire a clairvoyant to us to help with a hunting dispatch team in our area? What price?
— Are they interested in our Spell Anchoring Tech? Negotiate prices.
— Give them a copy of our Hunting Manual, and our Serene History booklet[/QUOTE]
Considering that we just did a trade deal with them around hunting for pay, do you think we can get the items in yellow for zero girls?
Trade Deal - Kofu (1 vet): Particularly note our intent towards Tokyo next month, as well as Taya's scouting this month. Discuss any aid they might be willing to offer.
— Warn them about the possibilities of class 3 demons fleeing Tokyo and attacking them. We are trying to arrange for protection, but if a class 3 demon does break through to them recommend that they immediately flee south and take shelter with us until we can deal with the threat.
— Ask them to warn the girls in Saku and in between, and pass on the same offer of shelter and aid.
— Would they be willing to have clairvoyants aid us in watching the battle so that we can direct reinforcements, etc?
— Would they let us hire some of their girls to hunt in our territory at 3 cubes per vets hunting in pairs, 2 cubes per girls hunting in packs? How many?
— Would they hire a clairvoyant to us to help with a hunting dispatch team in our area? What price?
— Cubes for money trade ratios
— Are they interested in our Tandem Casting Tech? Negotiate prices.
— Give them a copy of our Hunting Manual, and our Serene History booklet
So here the ones in red we have to do. I assume that just warning wouldn't cost us anything. I'd also prioritize the ones in yellow. Can this drop by 0.5 vets if we drop one of the other two items? Or both of those items?
Trade Deal - Coalition (0.5 vet): Particularly note our intent towards Tokyo next month. Discuss any aid they might be willing to offer.
— Would they be willing to have clairvoyants aid us in watching the battle so that we can direct reinforcements, etc?
— Would they let us hire some of their girls to hunt in our territory at 3 cubes per vets hunting in pairs, 2 cubes per girls hunting in packs? How many?
— Would they hire a clairvoyant to us to help with a hunting dispatch team in our area? What price?
— Are they interested in our Spell Anchoring Tech? Negotiate prices.
— Give them a copy of our Hunting Manual, and our Serene History booklet[/QUOTE]
Considering that we just did a trade deal with them around hunting for pay, do you think we can get the items in yellow for zero girls?
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Hmm. Sort of, but not exactly.
She can sense where things are headed, regardless of probability. She also knows that she can act to shift that final result, because her actions alter the path.
Her primary approach is to shift the path so that the end result is one with the lowest nominal probability of occurring, and then act with the knowledge that it will happen. (Knowledge of the probabilities would be due to skill, not her power.) Since other people will act on the assumption that the result will not happen, that gives her a significant advantage.
She doesn't see the future, per se. There is no temporal aspect. She sees a sort of 'concept' of the future, that certain actions must necessarily have certain consequences.
The epitome of its use (well above her current skill level; would need to be at least elite) would be sort of like the vampire swordsmaster from Battle Angel Alita: Last Order. There's a limited number of outcomes to every action, but it doesn't matter what the immediate outcome is, only that each strike nudges you down a path that must necessarily lead to your death. Once the fight starts, the outcome is already a known value. She's not eliminating probabilities; she's enforcing deterministic outcomes. It's just that she can tell what the deterministic requirements are.
That's why it's described more as acting on fate or destiny, rather than probability.
Another way to describe it would be like being able to see, with certainty, X moves ahead in a game of chess. At legendary level, she'd be virtually unlimited in the number of moves she can see, and decide on the final outcome from her very first move. Elite would give her substantial, but not unlimited insight. And as a vet she can see a decent bit further than most people, with far better understanding and control of the individual moves' interactions.
It would not be anti-entropy, as you're not reducing the number of possible states. The number of possible states remains the same; it's just that we know exactly which state we'll be traversing.
Now if it was one of the other girls from Saki, yeah, there's some massive probability manipulation going on with some of them.
Knowing which low-probability outcome will occur is anentropic unless she's creating the requisite minimum amount of waste heat at the same time. It's the same principle as Maxwell's demon.
Powerofmind
In Madness Fallen
- Location
- United States
Kinematics just described it as not being knowledge of which outcome will occur. She can comprehend the necessary steps to ensure a particular outcome, like being able to see all the cards in a game of solitaire. Play a game of solitaire with every card face up all the time (or with a good number of them face up), and you'll have a good approximation of how her power works.