Meguca Micro Empire Quest (PMMM)

What should I do regarding a change in system?

  • Notgreat's proposed simplification of hunting, leave rest intact.

    Votes: 5 55.6%
  • Chapter system vastly simplifying everything.

    Votes: 4 44.4%

  • Total voters
    9
  • Poll closed .
I am an economist.

I understand how the free market works.

You don't get the realities of meguca mechanics, sustenance farming, or the reality of poverty.

None of those girls in the coalition area are going to sell cubes for love or money. They are poor.

POOR, as in starvation levels poor.

They are not going to sell their food when they are always in danger of starving to death.

Furthermore, arbitrage is not free, we have the meguca cost, the opportunity cost of not using our resources to do other things, we don't even have the months supply surplus yet. There is a reason why most people are not day traders, and it is not because they are stupid, or ignorant, or because they do not understand the free market. Arbitrage is difficult.

For arbitrage to be worth the effort expended we need large organizations with surpluses, and significant differences in valuations. So far Nagoya, and possibly their vassals are the only ones we have made contact with.
Is the QM an economist? Secondly, many of these girls are homeless as well as being 'starving.' Out of the homeless girls, there's likely at least one veteran who has some spare Cubes stocked up for a rainy day, and who is willing to part with one or two in exchange for money that can buy food, or a roof, or other important things.

And as you said before, we have made contact with 15 and 16, who might also be willing to sell seeds, and who are also isolated from the greater market.
 
The coalition has about 15 meguca
The coalition probably has at least 30, maybe upwards of 40 meguca. Area 11 alone has 9.

and some of those meguca will have spare cubes
Remember that a cube buffer is a thing. One of the morale milestones is having at least as many reserve cubes as your group's population size (so about 60, for us). Having spare cubes isn't the same as having enough spare cubes that you're willing to trade them away.

If we were sitting at 50 remaining cubes instead of 75, and debating whether the 10 cube trade should take place, people would be much more reluctant to engage in further trade (taking us down to 40) unless the price we were getting paid went way up.

Each spare cube is worth about 4,000 to Nagoya.
For now, anyway.

So long as the meguca values it less than 4,000
Well, that's a question, isn't it? For a small group with limited resources, a cube is priceless — it's literally their life. They may not have much money, but you'd have to pay ludicrous amounts for them to give up their cubes. Cubes devalue when you can harvest more than you need, and thus far it's unlikely that many groups can make that claim.

On the other hand, Nagoya's conversion value for cubes is a reflection that money is worth relatively little to them. They don't have much flexibility in cubes (which is why our trade to them was valuable), but they can throw money around like water.

Basically, for a group to be selling cubes at a rate that we'd make a profit by reselling to Nagoya, they'd have to have a significant surplus in both cubes and money.

I will grant that at this point I couldn't give you a decent estimate of what I think an average group's exchange rate would be.
 
Now, there must be at least 1 cube cost, for forecasting, which means your total cannot be higher than 88.

Fixed

With the total amount of Seto teleports — 19.5 — total teleportation cost is 4.875 (rounded to 4.9) cubes. The first 4 cubes of that is free, so 0.9 cubes are the effective cost.

That's accounted for already.

It's cheating because you're implying that you can get more cubes than my plan by making a variety of adjustments, when all the actual gain is just saying, "Don't cap the rural area." You're making an out-of-scope change (relative to our normal comparisons) and using that as a hidden bonus to your point total.

First of all, that was not the basis, my basis was a math error.

Secondly, I don't think it really is out of context. Arguing to remove the cap on the rural area is valid, I just didn't call attention to it, because I didn't think that was the big part of the difference.

Yeah I was thinking 3 meguca.

Added opening food delivery to this turn. Any monetary cost to this?
 
What does that have to do with anything?

Anyway, I'm heading off to bed. My feet hurt and throat is sore, so I can tell I'm a lot more grouchy than normal.
It doesn't matter if you're Adam Smith if the QM only knows the basics of supply and demand.
The coalition probably has at least 30, maybe upwards of 40 meguca. Area 11 alone has 9.
And the other area has 5, and the third area was estimated to have 1. That's about 15, though it likely fluctuates rapidly due to the short life expectancy of a meguca.
Remember that a cube buffer is a thing. One of the morale milestones is having at least as many reserve cubes as your group's population size (so about 60, for us). Having spare cubes isn't the same as having enough spare cubes that you're willing to trade them away.

If we were sitting at 50 remaining cubes instead of 75, and debating whether the 10 cube trade should take place, people would be much more reluctant to engage in further trade (taking us down to 40) unless the price we were getting paid went way up.
And an individual meguca's cube buffer would be all of 2 cubes.
Which is why we should do it asap.
Well, that's a question, isn't it? For a small group with limited resources, a cube is priceless — it's literally their life. They may not have much money, but you'd have to pay ludicrous amounts for them to give up their cubes. Cubes devalue when you can harvest more than you need, and thus far it's unlikely that many groups can make that claim.

On the other hand, Nagoya's conversion value for cubes is a reflection that money is worth relatively little to them. They don't have much flexibility in cubes (which is why our trade to them was valuable), but they can throw money around like water.

Basically, for a group to be selling cubes at a rate that we'd make a profit by reselling to Nagoya, they'd have to have a significant surplus in both cubes and money.
Or they just have 1. Selling 1 cube for a few grand is a tidy profit.
I will grant that at this point I couldn't give you a decent estimate of what I think an average group's exchange rate would be.
Which is why we should try.
 
That's cheating.

You're abusing the rounding mechanic.
Ugh. Please, let's not go back to this.

First, I don't even deal with the raw numbers much anymore. I just plug values into Excel until it changes to the value I want (eg: final demon strength). All the math has already been done, so I just let the numbers fall where they may. The above calculation was just me confirming that the results generated in Excel matched what would be expected from the formulas. I don't try to 'cheat' the rounding, and I try to avoid applying caps at all, for most stuff.

Second, we will never get away a certain degree of rounding issues, as long as we're using math. I'd prefer to minimize the number of times I have to use conditional formulas based on positive vs negative numbers. A simple Round() should be enough.

Third, the actual number of cubes harvested is also rounded (except when explicit caps are given, and those are kept at the same precision as the rounding), which means the final demon strength value is itself dependent on a rounded number, which means its result can only be estimated to the nearest 0.1 anyway.

Anyway, I'm not going to fuss over rounding away 0.02 DS (on either side of the equation). The more likely actual limit is whether we can cap at a fractional cube in the first place, or if caps should only be whole numbers of cubes (thus, you could cap at 68 cubes, but not 67.9 or 67.8). I think I asked @inverted_helix about that before, but I don't remember what the answer was.
 
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And the other area has 5, and the third area was estimated to have 1. That's about 15, though it likely fluctuates rapidly due to the short life expectancy of a meguca.
The Coalition has four areas: 1, 11, 18, and 2. We have no idea how many are in 1 or 18; it's likely to be a lot, given they're both urban. 2 has only the one meguca, and 11 has 9, which is actually rather substantial for a suburban territory.
 
Ah. I figure that since we have the basics of Rotating Tactics and Crop Rotation in our manual that we were able to give a more professionally laid out pamphlet on our side?
Heh. Don't forget what our Meguca Handbook looked like.

The section on how to handle a grief spiral is particularly unhelpful. There are several pluses and hearts next to the entry labeled "Call Mami" which includes your phone number with an additional line in small script suggesting perhaps Taya would do. There's also advisories to eat lots of ice cream, not to talk to Kyouko about it because she can be scary, an entry so scribbled out you can't read it at all, and finally at least a vaguely useful description obviously in Taya's handwriting about the use of grief cubes to mitigate grief spirals and a caution about keeping in mind your supplies and not going too far.
 
Hey, that reminds me, @inverted_helix if I remember right some of the people that joined up, many of them over a year ago at this point, did so while keeping a supply of cubes "in reserve"; have they ever integrated those into the main supply?
Nope, though you could obviously ask. Seto is holding on to around a half dozen GCU, while Kyouko still has around 80 GCU in her "retirement fund".
I'm against asking Kyouko to ever touch her retirement fund, and I wouldn't want to pressure Seto on hers right now, either. Maybe by the end of the year Seto might push hers back into the pool (a half dozen cubes isn't much, and wouldn't make any long-term difference), but I'd rather keep Kyouko's as sacrosanct. That's the kind of reserve you don't touch until the darkest of darkest hours.
 
You know. Considering how scary Nagoya seems to us, I have to wonder what we look like to them.

I mean, we appear to have cubes for days, and they can't possibly believe what they've probably gathered about out survival rate.
 
You know. Considering how scary Nagoya seems to us, I have to wonder what we look like to them.

I mean, we appear to have cubes for days, and they can't possibly believe what they've probably gathered about out survival rate.
Eh, how much do they really know about those things, though?

We don't actually have a huge number of cubes; it'll take til the end of this year before we reach the 2x level, and can really consider ourselves to have a serious surplus. And we don't exactly advertise our reserves. Yes, we're trading 10 cubes, but at the same time, we're only trading 10 cubes. If we wanted to go ludicrous on the cubes, we could trade 20 ($40k + both infos), but we'd be digging deep into our stockpile. Trading just 10 implies we're kind of close to our limit of what we'd give up, not that we have oodles to splurge with.

As for survival rate... how much do we advertise that? I've long since lost track of what's in our welcome packet, and I don't see anything relating to it in the meguca handbook. Well, we want people to think it's worth joining, but I'm not sure "It's been 18 months since our last fatal hunting accident!" really carries the right message... I mean, it's positive, but it's also sorta creepy. And a little on the private side.
 
I'm against asking Kyouko to ever touch her retirement fund, and I wouldn't want to pressure Seto on hers right now, either. Maybe by the end of the year Seto might push hers back into the pool (a half dozen cubes isn't much, and wouldn't make any long-term difference), but I'd rather keep Kyouko's as sacrosanct. That's the kind of reserve you don't touch until the darkest of darkest hours.
It's interesting. I mean, on one hand she is very much the strongest meguca in the Serene; certainly much stronger than our Mami whose Elite ability isn't even magical. Without her territory and her ability we'd be much, much worse off. So Mami has really no moral authority to even ask the question; without Kyouko working much harder than she otherwise would have we'd be much farther behind the Nagoya eight ball; in fact they'd probably be making us an offer we couldn't refuse right now.

At the same time, it's a little disingenuous of Kyouko to join up with Mami, who has invested her entire reserve to the cause, while keeping such a huge reserve. It's probably bothering her more than she wants to admit, keeping those cubes to herself, especially when the Serenes were in a cube pinch partly because of her antics of leading an assault from the trees during fake SCA day in Turn 25.

But the ones I was actually referring to were the girls who joined much earlier, in Turn 12:
Mami spends much of the month meeting with the girls in the northeast and convincing them of the benefits of joining a larger group. She emphasizes the benefits of being in a true team, the ability to regularly socialize with people that understand your issues without worrying that they might turn on you and the security of having a group strong enough that no one is going to push them out of their territory. The fact that working together can let them achieve far more than they ever did apart, she points out her own group's survival rate. Mami manages to persuade them all to join in the end. Though they keep whatever grief cubes they had of their own to themselves just in case. Your housing is now at its limit as well, so you should probably deal with that before recruiting anyone else. (+3 Veterans, + NE Territory 5 sustainable, -$450)
I found a couple other references, namely the girls we forced into the Serenes in 20, and this one in Turn 24:
You plan to invite the girls you're trying to recruit to the party, but that doesn't really go so well. The girl from area 7 is all too eager to join your group, and she ends up attending the party simply by joining so fast. The pack of girls in area 11 is far less accommodating though. Your attempts at diplomacy with them turned into a disaster and it was only your own quick words that avoided an outright battle. It seems they aren't interested in anyone else interfering with their own group and are aware of your previous actions in the area in an unfavorable light. They unsurprisingly rejected your party invitation. (+1 green, +1 urban territory, area 11/12 diplomacy crit fail, diplomacy much harder there, -$250 basic equipment)
People who probably should have brought their spare cubes into the pool, but didn't because they weren't sure. Well, it's been over a year for the first group, and six months or more for the others; are they still holding onto those reserves? I'd expect them to if this were a low-morale conquest group, but the whole point of playing Princess Maker instead of XCom is that the girls feel like part of a family, rather than assets being brought together.
 
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Is it acceptable to copy one of the various forms of quack medicine? People already believe in that without causing any trouble, so we should be fine as long as we refuse to provide any verifiable evidence of our claims.
It still invites scrutiny. If we start miraculously curing last-ditch people and it isn't a scam, someone, anyone, is going to look into it. It puts a ridiculous amount of public focus on any asset we use to further the fake. If you don't recall, there was a huge expense of 35 GCU the last time we had public scrutiny from just the police.

What you're suggesting will cause federal investigation, private investigation, corporate espionage, paparazzi attention, and every Tom, Dick, Harry and their mothers to bother the public venue we'd use to perpetrate the lie. A bunch of emotionally unstable children will not handle it.

We've already nearly broken suspension of disbelief with just the courier business at least twice. Using magic in public and disguising it as something that doesn't work anywhere else in the world will break that suspension.
 
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At the same time, it's a little disingenuous of Kyouko to join up with Mami, who has invested her entire reserve to the cause, while keeping such a huge reserve. It's probably bothering her more than she wants to admit, keeping those cubes to herself, especially when the Serenes were in a cube pinch partly because of her antics of leading an assault from the trees during fake SCA day in Turn 25.
Kyouko actually invested as many grief cubes into the group as Mami did. Kyouko had over 100 GCU when she joined.

As someone else put it around the time she joined. Kyouko and Mami when they split in this timeline pretty much each pursued their own dreams. Mami of starting a group and bringing safety to everyone, while Kyouko pursued her own personal welfare. Kyouko put aside much of her own dream when she joined Mami's group, and donated an equal share of GCU to what Mami put up.

But the ones I was actually referring to were the girls who joined much earlier, in Turn 12:
I found a couple other references, namely the girls we forced into the Serenes in 20, and this one in Turn 24:
People who probably should have brought their spare cubes into the pool, but didn't because they weren't sure. Well, it's been over a year for the first group, and six months or more for the others; are they still holding onto those reserves? I'd expect them to if this were a low-morale conquest group, but the whole point of playing Princess Maker instead of XCom is that the girls feel like part of a family, rather than assets being brought together.
Hmm you raise a good point, I'd forgotten most of these. Though you'll find that most girls by themselves don't really manage to keep much of a grief cube reserve. Having one GCU reserve is pretty good for someone solo unless they're an elite.

How about I give you +15 GCU from people contributing their private reserves, and call that accounting for everyone pre-Seto besides Kyouko? I think at least some of them I had contribute cubes and some probably wouldn't have any to spare at all.
 
Kyouko actually invested as many grief cubes into the group as Mami did. Kyouko had over 100 GCU when she joined.

As someone else put it around the time she joined. Kyouko and Mami when they split in this timeline pretty much each pursued their own dreams. Mami of starting a group and bringing safety to everyone, while Kyouko pursued her own personal welfare. Kyouko put aside much of her own dream when she joined Mami's group, and donated an equal share of GCU to what Mami put up.

Hmm you raise a good point, I'd forgotten most of these. Though you'll find that most girls by themselves don't really manage to keep much of a grief cube reserve. Having one GCU reserve is pretty good for someone solo unless they're an elite.

How about I give you +15 GCU from people contributing their private reserves, and call that accounting for everyone pre-Seto besides Kyouko? I think at least some of them I had contribute cubes and some probably wouldn't have any to spare at all.
Considering that those grief cubes are their property, I'd think that a lot of them would have already been traded around or expended in Fun With Magic.
 
Kyouko actually invested as many grief cubes into the group as Mami did. Kyouko had over 100 GCU when she joined.

As someone else put it around the time she joined. Kyouko and Mami when they split in this timeline pretty much each pursued their own dreams. Mami of starting a group and bringing safety to everyone, while Kyouko pursued her own personal welfare. Kyouko put aside much of her own dream when she joined Mami's group, and donated an equal share of GCU to what Mami put up.
That's a very good point, and I don't think Mami would begrudge Kyouko her retirement fund. Kyouko, however, is probably starting to consider the wider world, especially with the Mageocracy, the Non-Serene, and the Tokyo situation, and beginning to see her own dream in a new light.
Hmm you raise a good point, I'd forgotten most of these. Though you'll find that most girls by themselves don't really manage to keep much of a grief cube reserve. Having one GCU reserve is pretty good for someone solo unless they're an elite.

How about I give you +15 GCU from people contributing their private reserves, and call that accounting for everyone pre-Seto besides Kyouko? I think at least some of them I had contribute cubes and some probably wouldn't have any to spare at all.
I admit it would be nice, but @racnor has a good point that they might consider those Grief Cubes "theirs", no matter that the original vets contributed "their" cubes to the pot in Turn 1.

Traded around wouldn't affect the total, and Fun With Magic is already accounted for in our budgeting.
What he means is that the girls would do such things themselves, independent of the group, without telling anyone. Essentially losses to corruption.

Incidentally, this is probably one of the reasons the Nagoya group is still hurting for cubes, despite the XCom lifestyle, despite probably "culling" weaker groups in order to keep Central's DS low, and despite demanding cubes and/or other tribute from many vassals: every meguca in Central probably has their own little "side-stash" that they're keeping from the group, one that they're slowly building due to the selfish nature of their group and all the criminality they are no doubt a part of. Hell, there are probably dozens of cubes in hidden stashes that nobody even remembers, since they were put together by meguca who are now dead, thanks to XCom.

We, in contrast, have a zero rate of corruption, mostly because 1) we're so big on the togetherness and group effort thing, 2) we're practically one big cult of personality centered around "Mother Mami", and 3) we are so quant-specialized that we no doubt keep the GCUs tallied down to the single cube at all times. :)
 
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What he means is that the girls would do such things themselves, independent of the group, without telling anyone. Essentially losses to corruption.
Eh... I'd be rather surprised at that, really.

The reason to keep a personal stash is uncertainty about your future. That is, sure you've joined this new group that promised lots of wonderful things, but what if it doesn't pan out? You don't waste your personal stockpile on frivolities when you still don't know whether you might need to bail.

On the other hand, once they've acclimated to the group, and adopted the "All for one" mindset, you don't waste your reserve cubes on frivolities when they could be used to keep everyone alive and healthy.

Plus, Fun with Magic is only +0.1 cubes per girl per month. One girl using that would have to use it for nearly a year to use up a single reserve cube. And that's only if it's a single girl using her own personal stash. For the groups with maybe 2 to 4 girls each, I'm sure they had a collective pile they kept hidden, and using it on personal FWM-type stuff means they're stealing from their friends, as well as the group.

Basically, losing all those cubes goes against the mindsets of both practical paranoia, and group acclimation, for almost all of them. I could maybe see a very small fraction being lost from small dips into the reserve, before turning in what was left, but I'd be surprised if even 2 cubes was lost that way.

Overall, I don't believe such cube reserves could be lost in the manner described. Not in our group. (Though, as you say, with other groups it could be very different.)
 
It still invites scrutiny. If we start miraculously curing last-ditch people and it isn't a scam, someone, anyone, is going to look into it. It puts a ridiculous amount of public focus on any asset we use to further the fake. If you don't recall, there was a huge expense of 35 GCU the last time we had public scrutiny from just the police.

What you're suggesting will cause federal investigation, private investigation, corporate espionage, paparazzi attention, and every Tom, Dick, Harry and their mothers to bother the public venue we'd use to perpetrate the lie. A bunch of emotionally unstable children will not handle it.

We've already nearly broken suspension of disbelief with just the courier business at least twice. Using magic in public and disguising it as something that doesn't work anywhere else in the world will break that suspension.

There is actually a pretty easy way to get past this, and that's

1) make this religious
2) make this less about people and more about a place

So, in this scenario we take Kyouko's family church, renovate, and somehow stage an OH WOW, GEEZ A MIRACLE HAPPENED HERE type thing.

People laugh, but then the really desperate cases get curious and they also come to see if they can get the miracle healing. They do. They leave a small donation.

Whenever it is the papal inquisitors come in (I stg there's a group from the Vatican that goes to check on how legit a miracle is) we have probably called down too much heat on ourselves and stop healing people. But that fits the narrative of a sacred place rather than a sacred person.

It's probably less amenable to money-making, but it's easier to control in terms of safety because those sorts of narratives are pretty widespread. There are lots of caves, pools, temples, and etc. that are supposed to be helpful for your health. Creating a saint is a no-no, but creating a sacred space should be fairly low-key and doable and easy enough to abandon or pick up.
 
I'll also leave a little note here, before turning in: If we do get these extra cubes dropped in our lap, we might be able to do a more reasonable compromise on the trade deal vote. If people are willing to discuss options for that.
 
People claim to have performed and received miraculous healings all the time and they get dismissed as scams automatically. As long as we don't provide verifiable evidence (and maybe keep to less obvious illnesses), the only people who will care will be the ones who already believe.
 
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