Cuba enjoys a remarkably good relationship with Miami, and they have begun to develop more diplomatic connections to other polities on the American continent. This is somewhat concerning to the Russian Empire, but ultimately Cuba is trapped; as an island which is still dangerously reliant on imports, they cannot afford to turn against the Russians. In the Old World, before the Fall, Cuba took pride in its defiance of a hegemonic power. Now that the Russians have replaced the Americans, they have taken their place as the bitter but obedient dogs of the Tsar.
If we go with your scenario, the Commonwealth clearing the Mississippi trade route and revitalizing the agriculture of the Midwest and select bits of the Great Plains may actually give Cuba an out from their situation...
Reminder that Cuba has previous experiences with collapse-type events due to the Special Period of the 90s and you'll recall that the 90s were not a period characterized by a flood of Cuban mercenaries. With the collapse of the American blockade, Cuba is probably better off in the collapse than the Special Period because they can actually trade with their neighbours.
In point of fact, trade is something almost nobody was able to do in adequate amounts.
Like, I'm not attached to a specific fate for Cuba, but their answer to impending starvation wasn't gonna be, "lol just trade."
Yesbut.
On the one hand, what must have utterly collapsed was
high-volume, intercontinental trade. Tramp freighters operating over shorter distances probably didn't collapse quite so completely, as long as you could park a rifle platoon aboard to deter casual hijacking attempts. That kind of trade relies less heavily on the global financial system and is sustainable even on the level of city-states making deals with one another. Trying to stop it fully requires exactly the kind of expansive, fiddly deployment of large scale occupying forces that Russia can't afford and is specifically trying to avoid in most of the world. This is something to bear in mind.
On the other hand, by the time the US stopped blockading and refusing to trade with Cuba, the main food exporter in the region- the US itself- was no longer in the business, having been thoroughly wrecked as Step One. Cuba would be hard pressed to import food from anywhere.
On the other other hand,
@AKuz isn't wrong to point out that this isn't the first time Cuba's been experiencing a famine caused by a shutdown of international trade enforced by the asinine dictates of a superpower, and indeed their Collapse-era situation may be no more restrictive, or even
LESS restrictive, of their trade than the existing embargo imposed by the United States.
That's not a case of the solution to their problems being "lol just trade," it's just that almost all their options for trade were cut off or greatly cramped even
before the Collapse, so they're in a very perverse situation now that on the one hand the global economy (which they were heavily fenced off from) is collapsing but on the other hand so is the superpower
right next door that was personally making it their immediate business to hurt Cuba as much as possible. Russia hurts nearly everyone on general principles, but they have no direct grudge against
Cuba personally, and Cuba simply isn't an adequate base of territory or resources or population to be any real threat to Russian ambitions. Which is a step up for the Cubans compared to the situation with the US.
I don't think the Russians or Victorians would be particularly thrilled about that happening, Akuz.
I'm picturing a string of Cuban-dominated enclaves along the Gulf Coast, all close to the sea, that are basically just auxiliary extension farmland for the Cuba proper. Russia might very well smile and nod at this because it accomplishes several goals at once:
1) It gives Americans in the general vicinity more targets to hate.
2) Specifically, someone to hate who
isn't the Victorians, and whose presence indirectly helps the Victorians cultivate their network of influence in the American South.
3) It entangles the Cubans in a blatantly imperialist project on the American mainland, hurting their diplomatic credibility with other powers outside his immediate circle of control, even as the Cubans try to pass it off as "helping fraternal socialist allies" while grabbing all the food.
4) It keeps the Cubans
busy maintaining those enclaves and securing them against the general chaos and bullshit of the North American mainland, and in particular garrisoning them heavily enough that the Victorians will pay heavily if they get any stupid ideas about "liberating" the place.
5)
Specifically in the wake of the collapse of the New American Confederacy, having Cubans muscle in on some choice chunks of reasonably accessible farmland near the coast further stirs up the pot. It distracts attention from HOLY SHIT DID THE VICKS JUST DO NUCLEAR TERRORISM. And it introduces a faction that can soak up sporadic fire from any NAC remnants still reasonably well armed and equipped until those remnants are easy enough to break that the Vicks can finish them off.
I imagine that Russia may find Cuba actively more useful as a
deniable, semi-independent catspaw in the Caribbean than as a dominated client state. Between this and the need to keep regional piracy down to a mild roar, the Cubans' own strategic necessities force them to do a lot of the things the Russians would want them doing anyway, while also undermining any popularity or credibility they could use to rally the region into any kind of coherent power bloc. Light influence over Havana-
suggestions rather than blatant dominance- could well be enough to keep Cuba under control.
He just occupied all of the ex-Soviet republics including multiple EU members, annexed Alaska, subverted Romania and Bulgaria, Iran and Turkey, set up a client state in Canada, and is squatting on much of the Middle East.
He already has an Empire which requires maintenance.
And he has skilled manpower constraints.
Russia was 150 million pre-conquests, is probably around 250 million now, and has to police the conquered, attempt to conquer more of continental Europe, and still build the basis of a first world economy while funding green research.
There are limits to how much he can do even with plotshields.
Note that he declined to go into Afghanistan despite it being resource-rich, and sharing a land border.
The US had trusted allies during much of its hegemony whose economies were intertwined with hers, and who shared much the same values.
Alex has allies of convenience whose interests sometimes coincide.
That alters what you can afford to spare. The more you grab, the less spare force you have.
...You entirely missed my point.
My point is that Puerto Rico is a naturally vulnerable place with a disrupted economy and no protector in this situation. It also has specific kinds of light manufacturing that make it
useful, and not a real threat or competitor from Alexander's perspective.
Alexander IV does not need to waste manpower conquering Puerto Rico or skilled engineers to build up its economy (much). All he needs is to
sign a deal; they will have every reason to comply of their own accord. Puerto Rico thus falls under the "ally of convenience" category, or possibly the "easily bullied hanger-on" category if you're less sympathetic.
Cuba is a light infantry power, not a naval power.
I dont really see where said piracy problem is going to start from as petroleum products spike in price anyway.
In answer to the first, there's more than one way to skin a cat. Beating piracy in a maritime region with naval power is only one way to do it. The other is to break the
landward power of the factions that engage in piracy. See for instance the Barbary Corsairs- sporadically suppressed with naval actions throughout the Early Modern era, but only finally and permanently crushed out when the French conquered North Africa in the 1830s and destroyed the institutions that operated the ships.
In answer to the second, successful piracy (which includes raids against coastal communities) has a LOT of potential to pay for itself, even if keeping the pirates in operation requires expensive commodities (like fuel). There's a limit, but given that you're still going on about how the EU can maintain a million people in overseas possessions even while undergoing intensive Collapse conditions, you
really shouldn't be questioning how a bunch of guys with AKs and boats can get marine diesel fuel during the same time period.
The EU does not need to project military power to subsidise keeping less than 2 million people able to feed themselves and stay on their islands, instead of attempting to make it to Europe as EU citizens and worsen the refugee and social situation there.
The basic yearly requirements are pretty fucking spartan; an official consulate with offical EU staff, advice, and the occasional cargo ship.
Yes. This still represents an investment of easily a billion euros a year or more, at a time when the territorial security and food security of Europe itself is very much uncertain.
Funds for anything off the European mainland are going to be
ridiculously tight. If they DO, as you repeatedly assert in an
exasperatingly cocksure manner, have the funds to maintain their space launch infrastructure, they're going to be doing it out of desperate "do or die" commitment to maintaining their military budget. And there won't be a lot left over to feed people on islands of no strategic value.
Argentina has evidenced zero territorial intentions towards Uruguay that Im aware of. They dont even have border disputes.
Nor do they have anything a presumptive expansionist government in Argentina would want.
And invasions are expensive.
Take it up with the guy who pointed this out first...
