Ultimate Hangman's Gambit III - La Pasión del Amor y Muertes (Pueblo Victory)
- Thread starter Dekutulla
- Start date
- Mafia
-
- Tags
- bad decisions mafia
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
Wow, he really did run some nutty roles, including a literal conversion role. Still, that was in a bigger game. Do we know if he said anything about whether this game would be more "normal" or "vanilla" than the others?
Icarus
Professional Kouhai
I've heard some people say that, but there's no evidence. Plus I see no reason for the GM to limit speculation like that by saying something about how the game will operate so directly.
Besides, reducing the mafia count to 2 would balance it out, since Game 1 was a full list and had 3 mafias with the convert.
Besides, reducing the mafia count to 2 would balance it out, since Game 1 was a full list and had 3 mafias with the convert.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
So, there's no reason the setup couldn't be 2 Mafias with a conversion power instead of 3 Mafias. I think this is a good point you've made here. In such a case, though, if Mafia converted the Doctor on Night 1, I think they'd have shot the Cop already, right? Like, let's say Mega was Doctor and got converted to Mafia. Sure, maybe now he's a Roleblocker who can stop the Cop. But... if there's no more town-controlled doctor protection, it seems like it's a bit risky to not immediately shoot the cop.
Why? Well, Icarus, you're the town roleblocker. If you'd RBed Mega one night, then he wouldn't be able to RB LDJ—and we'd get another check, possibly winning us the game. Last night, if you're really good town roleblocker, Mafia knew you MIGHT roleblock Mega. And if you did, LDJ lives and gets to claim a check. If I were Mafia in such a situation, I'd have Mega block you, and use the Mafia KP on killing LDJ now. There's too much risk of letting a cop check through.
Mafia's shots aren't what they'd look like if they really had neutralized the Doctor and were also aware of a Town Roleblocker. Night 3, you + LDJ are a huge threat to them. They'd have definitely RBed you and shot LDJ, to prevent the possibility of another cop check.
So I don't think Mafia somehow converted Megaolix. They're not acting like they would if they were going up against a Town Roleblocker plus a Town Cop. Their NKs don't match up your world. What do you think, Icarus?
Why? Well, Icarus, you're the town roleblocker. If you'd RBed Mega one night, then he wouldn't be able to RB LDJ—and we'd get another check, possibly winning us the game. Last night, if you're really good town roleblocker, Mafia knew you MIGHT roleblock Mega. And if you did, LDJ lives and gets to claim a check. If I were Mafia in such a situation, I'd have Mega block you, and use the Mafia KP on killing LDJ now. There's too much risk of letting a cop check through.
Mafia's shots aren't what they'd look like if they really had neutralized the Doctor and were also aware of a Town Roleblocker. Night 3, you + LDJ are a huge threat to them. They'd have definitely RBed you and shot LDJ, to prevent the possibility of another cop check.
So I don't think Mafia somehow converted Megaolix. They're not acting like they would if they were going up against a Town Roleblocker plus a Town Cop. Their NKs don't match up your world. What do you think, Icarus?
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
Like, in the hypothetical with Mega + Gen_Gen mafia team, they should be REALLY afraid of Icarus' power. Especially during Night 3. Remember, during Night 3, these 7 people are alive:
Nani and JBJ are all but confirmed town.
LDJ is the claimed cop,
Icarus is the claimed roleblocker
BH is a VT
Mega and Gen_Gen are mafia for the purpose of this exercize, and Mega is the roleblocker
So, their #1 goal here, if you're mafia, is to kill a towniem ideally a confirmed one like Nani/JBJ, but also prevent LDJ from getting another check. Now, normally you'd just Roleblock LDJ and shoot Nani. But... what if Icarus is really the roleblocker for town? this would be super scary for mafia. They'd have to deal with him, because Icarus won't block Nani, JBJ, or LDJ. Icarus will block into... well, Mega and Gen_Gen. It's like, technically possible he might block BH, but BH just hammered LV. So, as Mafia, you think there's a good chance here that Icarus either blocks your KP or your Roleblock.
The only option that is safe is to shoot LDJ and block Icarus.
That's not what happened. LDJ is alive, and got roleblocked.
I just don't see Mega + Gen_Gen doing this at all, it makes no sense. Exposes them to potential cop check. I also think Icarus' RB of me doesn't make sense over Mega or Gen_Gen.
Nani and JBJ are all but confirmed town.
LDJ is the claimed cop,
Icarus is the claimed roleblocker
BH is a VT
Mega and Gen_Gen are mafia for the purpose of this exercize, and Mega is the roleblocker
So, their #1 goal here, if you're mafia, is to kill a towniem ideally a confirmed one like Nani/JBJ, but also prevent LDJ from getting another check. Now, normally you'd just Roleblock LDJ and shoot Nani. But... what if Icarus is really the roleblocker for town? this would be super scary for mafia. They'd have to deal with him, because Icarus won't block Nani, JBJ, or LDJ. Icarus will block into... well, Mega and Gen_Gen. It's like, technically possible he might block BH, but BH just hammered LV. So, as Mafia, you think there's a good chance here that Icarus either blocks your KP or your Roleblock.
The only option that is safe is to shoot LDJ and block Icarus.
That's not what happened. LDJ is alive, and got roleblocked.
I just don't see Mega + Gen_Gen doing this at all, it makes no sense. Exposes them to potential cop check. I also think Icarus' RB of me doesn't make sense over Mega or Gen_Gen.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
So I guess, based on this, I think the "Mega + Gen_Gen" Mafia team simply doesn't line up at all with Night 3 actions. Icarus is likely Mafia. I'm quite comfortable taking down Icarus today, and in absence of new information, will not be moving my vote. I hope this analysis of your ideas was sufficiently respectful, Icarus, and let me know if I missed anything. @Joebobjoe please evaluate the observations I made above about night actions and how it makes it very unlikely that Mega + Gen Gen is the mafia team and let me know what you think. Thanks!
Icarus
Professional Kouhai
They wouldn't know he was the cop until day 2 though. The townie power roles aren't aware of each other like the masons are. LDS revealled himself to lynch TFS on Day 2.
After that, with mega in hand, they could just choke out LDJ forever and kill other people instead of using their kill on the cop.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
Please read my whole case: what about Night 3, though? Last night, from Mafia's PoV, you were super likely to RB either their RBer or their KP deliverer. You were a HUGE threat to them if you were in fact the roleblocker. They'd have to RB you and kill LDJ to have any chance to win. They didn't.
Icarus
Professional Kouhai
Also, here's the thing:
It's entirely possible I'm being blocked when I do my night actions, because as I've pointed out yesterday, I get no message after I send in my pm.
This was the entire confusion about LDJ in the first place. We don't get information about whether we've been blocked. It's just that the result is "who the fuck knows"
It's entirely possible I'm being blocked when I do my night actions, because as I've pointed out yesterday, I get no message after I send in my pm.
This was the entire confusion about LDJ in the first place. We don't get information about whether we've been blocked. It's just that the result is "who the fuck knows"
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
Ok, perhaps you were blocked. But if so, then LDJ wasn't, which would make no sense. Mafia has two peopel who can deliver night actions, the RBer and the KP deliverer. They're up against a Town Cop and a Town RBer. Because the RBer could potentially be a huge threat to them, Mafia have to RB him. But if they RBed you, then they only have one action remaining, the KP. And they sure didn't use it on LDJ! That makes no sense. So you must not be a Town RBer. Do you get what I'm getting at here?
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
Like, from Mafia's PoV, if they are Mega and Gen_Gen, they need to both prevent the threat of Icarus RBing one of them (either stopping the KP, or stopping the RB on LDJ the cop) and ALSO prevent the thread of LDJ getting a result. With their two actions, this means one must be used to RB Icarus, and the other to kill LDJ. There's no other way for them to avoid the high possibility of getting cop checked, or their KP halted.
But they shot Nani. Which makes it much more likely this RB claim from Icarus is fake, and he is Mafia.
But they shot Nani. Which makes it much more likely this RB claim from Icarus is fake, and he is Mafia.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
Obviously Mega is going to agree with me whether I'm right or wrong, but I'd be interested to hear what JBJ has to say about these ideas, especially since he is our confirmed town and holds both Mega and Icarus as possibly Mafia.
Icarus
Professional Kouhai
That was a general statement about what could have happened after I was revealed, not responding to the other thing above. One second.
You're looking at it in terms of who has what powers instead of "Who was suspicious of whom and how good were they at arguing during the day?"
Nani was the only confirmed town person who was willing to stop and look at other arguments. It's how he at least considered Lupine's argument about LDJ and Ellf before dismantling it and moving on. From that point, the mafia probably realized he had outlived his usefulness and would be a real problem in the next day.
Like, notice how the really good debaters get picked off at night. Nani, Shard, and Ellf were all super active and contributing to the town. Unfortunately the people who voted for Ellf saved them the trouble of killing him last night, so they went for nani instead. I'm 99% positive Ellf would have been targeted last night were it not for the tie vote.
I'm a threat, yes. But think about the economy of actions here. Even without the cop and the roleblocker, they would still have to fight off some very strong suspicions the next day from people who were already collecting a lot of evidence based on their own experience. And you have to remember, nani and joe as confirmed masons working together would have cut down the pool of possible suspects drastically.
The chance of me getting the right person was lower than the chance of a mafia getting lynched today in that scenario due to the power of living masons towards the endgame. That's my take of it.
You're looking at it in terms of who has what powers instead of "Who was suspicious of whom and how good were they at arguing during the day?"
Nani was the only confirmed town person who was willing to stop and look at other arguments. It's how he at least considered Lupine's argument about LDJ and Ellf before dismantling it and moving on. From that point, the mafia probably realized he had outlived his usefulness and would be a real problem in the next day.
Like, notice how the really good debaters get picked off at night. Nani, Shard, and Ellf were all super active and contributing to the town. Unfortunately the people who voted for Ellf saved them the trouble of killing him last night, so they went for nani instead. I'm 99% positive Ellf would have been targeted last night were it not for the tie vote.
I'm a threat, yes. But think about the economy of actions here. Even without the cop and the roleblocker, they would still have to fight off some very strong suspicions the next day from people who were already collecting a lot of evidence based on their own experience. And you have to remember, nani and joe as confirmed masons working together would have cut down the pool of possible suspects drastically.
The chance of me getting the right person was lower than the chance of a mafia getting lynched today in that scenario due to the power of living masons towards the endgame. That's my take of it.
Icarus
Professional Kouhai
Like blaze said, you'd agree with him out of self-preservation regardless since I'm targeting you
Pfft, like you have any choice. You didn't hesitate to go after me the moment I revealed, but it's not like you had any choie to start with to save your ass.Like blaze said, you'd agree with him out of self-preservation regardless since I'm targeting you
Let me tip you: you confirmed everything for me the moment you said you blocked GG. Should have double-checked that lie.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
There was every reason to believe if you were really the Town RBer you'd have done some good last night if left unmolested. Remember, if Mega and Gen_Gen are Mafia, he's the layout:
Nani and JBJ are all but confirmed town.
LDJ is the claimed cop
Icarus is the claimed roleblocker
BH is a VT
Mega and Gen_Gen are mafia for the purpose of this exercize, and Mega is the roleblocker
From your PoV, you'll never target LDJ, Nani, or JBJ. You are suspicious of Mega and Gen_Gen, and you MIGHT RB me. But I just hammered LV, so why would you do that? Even if you picked randmoly, you'd have a 67% chance of Rbing a Mafia player! This is HUGE. 2 of your 3 sane targets are Mafia! If you Rb Mega, then LDJ's cop check goes through. Game over for Mafia. If you RB Gen_Gen, then the Mafia don't have a KP for the night. Super game over for mafia, because you can just mention you RBed Gen_Gen and we kill him.
You, as RBer, would be a HUGE threat to Mafia, with a 67% chance to stop them, and that's assuming you consider me as suspicious as Gen_Gen and Mega. And believe me, Gen_Gen and Mega knew my star was ascendent when I caused LV to die.
No, there's no way Mafia risks it. IF you were town you were almost CERTAINLY going to stop the KP or the Roleblock that holds back the Cop. An enormous threat.
It seems clear to be you claimed you RBed me (a nonsense move) instead of Gen_Gen and Mega because you know anyone you RB becomes innocent for not carrying the KP, and you needed to RB the most-already-innocent possible person who wasn't conftown. IMO we've basically caught you, Icarus. The Mega+Gen_Gen team makes no sense with the Nani kill. You as town RBer would be an enormous threat coupled with Town Cop and there's no way Mafia ignores that.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
Like, sure, Mafia wants to kill good people like Nani who will find them. But having their KP blocked or the Cop get another check? That would be instant game over, no recovery. No way Mega+Gen Gen makes sense
Icarus
Professional Kouhai
We've been over this.
If I was mafia and I lied about who i roleblocked, i would pick gen because it would exonerate both of us.
I picked you because I was suspicious of the way you jumped on the vote at the last second yesterday. You're saying that "you needed to RB the most-already-innocent possible person who wasn't conftown", but you're not thinking clearly because it's you we're talking about. The only reason I've made it this far in the game is because I can consider how guilty I look to others and know when to take a step back.
You're saying "There's no way Mafia risks it.", but you have to understand that they were both risky moves when you considering the possibilities.
Think about it: If LDJ was dead and I was blocked, Gen would be under huge suspicion because he was the dude that LDJ was most suspicous of yesterday. Nani would look at that, along with everything else that happened, and go "yeah i can see this" and whip the votes for it.
Here the mafia banked on me guessing incorrectly and threw the argument into a freefall, which is why everyone's jumping on me because there's no confirmed town voice-of-reason anymore. It's much easier to wiggle out of suspicion with bad information instead of no information.
Nani would still have been able to come through with the help of Joe in his mason and the guarantee of his innocence, even without a roleblock or an investigation to work around. Here... well, we've all just been focusing on me all day instead of gen, who has literally been completely silent, or anyone else for that matter.
If I was mafia and I lied about who i roleblocked, i would pick gen because it would exonerate both of us.
I picked you because I was suspicious of the way you jumped on the vote at the last second yesterday. You're saying that "you needed to RB the most-already-innocent possible person who wasn't conftown", but you're not thinking clearly because it's you we're talking about. The only reason I've made it this far in the game is because I can consider how guilty I look to others and know when to take a step back.
You're saying "There's no way Mafia risks it.", but you have to understand that they were both risky moves when you considering the possibilities.
Think about it: If LDJ was dead and I was blocked, Gen would be under huge suspicion because he was the dude that LDJ was most suspicous of yesterday. Nani would look at that, along with everything else that happened, and go "yeah i can see this" and whip the votes for it.
Here the mafia banked on me guessing incorrectly and threw the argument into a freefall, which is why everyone's jumping on me because there's no confirmed town voice-of-reason anymore. It's much easier to wiggle out of suspicion with bad information instead of no information.
Nani would still have been able to come through with the help of Joe in his mason and the guarantee of his innocence, even without a roleblock or an investigation to work around. Here... well, we've all just been focusing on me all day instead of gen, who has literally been completely silent, or anyone else for that matter.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
I mean, I guess I'm just not convinced. Obviously us just butting heads over it isn't helping anyone. I think you made a well-constructed argument, but the facts are against you. I also find it interesting, to say the least, that your vote is on Mega and not Gen_Gen. Mostly, this conversation was for @Joebobjoe 's benefit.
Icarus
Professional Kouhai
Gen's the one we can all agree is likely scum. If the person who dies tonight is mafia, we'll know to just go for Gen tomorrow.
I'm willing to switch to gen if Mega is willing to first. The fact that Mega's been sticking to his guns on me the whole time is part of the reason why I'm so suspicious of him. He doesn't need to do anything but sit and wait if he's scum. If he's town he would, at the very least, be alright with pressuring Gen out of his silence instead of waiting until day end. But for some reason everyone's more concerned with me right now.
I'm willing to switch to gen if Mega is willing to first. The fact that Mega's been sticking to his guns on me the whole time is part of the reason why I'm so suspicious of him. He doesn't need to do anything but sit and wait if he's scum. If he's town he would, at the very least, be alright with pressuring Gen out of his silence instead of waiting until day end. But for some reason everyone's more concerned with me right now.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
I mean, shouldn't Mega and Gen be obvious mafia to you anyways, whether or not he sticks his vote on you? JBJ and LDJ are claimed blues that we pretty much believe (unless we think LDJ is mafia rolecop), and despite my general asshattery I'm known to be town. So you don't really need a reason to think Mega and Gen are mafia, right? Like, there's 2 mafia, and if it's not you, and it sure isn't me JBJ, or LDJ, it must be those two from your PoV.
Legend of Ruina
Growing eyes on the inside
Honestly Icarus' claim comes off as a bit sloppy for a maf. Roleblocker is a bad cover when the cop keeps getting blocked, and his log of targets seems like the sort of haphazard guess work you get from a townie with little clue what's going on. I mean since he is using that as an arguing point it could be intentional, but as someone who was instrumental in getting an important townie lynched due to a bad read can understand some of it.
Though Blazing, you're discounting worst case scenario of LDJ being a maf who hit Tenfold night one and hasn't actually been roleblocked since. Nani or I getting docced by Mega and being the target is the more likely explanation and fits maf patterns better, but not the only possible one. Especially since it was explicitly demanded that the doc be on the Masons.
They go for random target, hit a serial killer, and have a member get a decent cover. If that is the case then Icarus probably is legitimate because Town otherwise lacks a role capable of finding maf. Roleblocker is a weird roll for a detective slot but can function as one. You're playing into a mindset that assumes that one of the two has to be maf while failing to account for edge cases.
And Generica still hasn't said anything this day phase. Going to warm up my pitchfork, see if that gets us anywhere.
[X] Generic_Generica
Mostly just as a show of good faith and to save some hassle later. Please don't make me retract it by trying to hammer tonight before they get a chance to talk.
Though Blazing, you're discounting worst case scenario of LDJ being a maf who hit Tenfold night one and hasn't actually been roleblocked since. Nani or I getting docced by Mega and being the target is the more likely explanation and fits maf patterns better, but not the only possible one. Especially since it was explicitly demanded that the doc be on the Masons.
They go for random target, hit a serial killer, and have a member get a decent cover. If that is the case then Icarus probably is legitimate because Town otherwise lacks a role capable of finding maf. Roleblocker is a weird roll for a detective slot but can function as one. You're playing into a mindset that assumes that one of the two has to be maf while failing to account for edge cases.
And Generica still hasn't said anything this day phase. Going to warm up my pitchfork, see if that gets us anywhere.
[X] Generic_Generica
Mostly just as a show of good faith and to save some hassle later. Please don't make me retract it by trying to hammer tonight before they get a chance to talk.
Blazinghand
O cursèd spite
- Location
- California
If we're going with the theory of "Generic_Generica is bad and Icarus is good" then I will move Icarus to no longer be at Hammer-1. I still think Icarus is the best choice today, but I don't want Gen_Gen hammering him in the case JBJ is actually right.
[x] Unvote Icarus
[x] Unvote Icarus
Legend of Ruina
Growing eyes on the inside
I'm not saying Icarus is good, just that Generic is somewhat more probable since he fits as the other partner regardless of who in particular the maf is among those claiming power roles. Because I doubt from distribution that two of the claimed powers are missing from Town. Though admittedly one of the dead townies might fit some of the roles depending on flavor and just didn't have time to claim before their imminent demise.