Ultimate Hangman's Gambit III - La Pasión del Amor y Muertes (Pueblo Victory)

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Joebobjoe said:
I'm feel that rushing through this day would not achieve much of anything. Will go over stuff in morning, hammering before everyone has spoken and discussion is still ongoing is a dick move. Says a lot that Blazing is actively pushing for it.
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In this case however, Icarus made him innocent of wrongdoing and condemned himself at least.

But yeah, I guess we can wait for GG to speak up.
 
Megaolix said:
In this case however, Icarus made him innocent of wrongdoing and condemned himself at least.
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If there's a convert (would explain night 1's lack of mafia kills) or a fourth mafioso (far less likely), it would be possible.

in fact

A doctor/jailkeeper getting converted would read the exact same explanation that mega's giving, that he took money from shady people.

I think one of the surviving mafia roles can bribe someone in place of a kill per night to convert a townie. They haven't had a loss until yesterday so it would explain why its only been used once.
 
Icarus said:
If there's a convert (would explain night 1's lack of mafia kills) or a fourth mafioso (far less likely), it would be possible.

in fact

A doctor/jailkeeper getting converted would read the exact same explanation that mega's giving, that he took money from shady people.

I think one of the surviving mafia roles can bribe someone in place of a kill per night to convert a townie. They haven't had a loss until yesterday so it would explain why its only been used once.
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The fact that you're spouting all this with no basis is just you digging yourself in deeper, Icarus.
 
Let's hear from someone who I'm not directly accusing first before we come to any conclusions.

And i just want to point out, if my theory is right the mafia makes up fifty percent of the remaining players.

This be the last day if we make a mistake.
 
Icarus said:
Let's hear from someone who I'm not directly accusing first before we come to any conclusions.

And i just want to point out, if my theory is right the mafia makes up fifty percent of the remaining players.

This be the last day if we make a mistake.
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Your theory is literally unworkable because it has maf as 50%. That's the standard win threshold because it's nearly impossible for the town to recover. It requires Duketella to have set up the rules in an illogical and contrary way that forces the game to keep going after the end is decided.
 
True enough. Mafia might start out as 2 players instead, since there's the conversion power to factor in. It would also explain why the 2nd roleblock only showed up after night one.

The statement about this being the last day is true

One innocent dead from a lynch + another dead at night would be game over
 
"Hey guys just hammer him"

"He's obviously lying because what he's saying contradicts my dripfeed role call that I've been lying about all game"

Mega why don't you start from the beginning on your role and give us an answer that isn't like 2 words.
 
Not really. Looking at the arguments it's fairly likely that one of you are maf. Unless Generica CCs doctor I'm leaning toward it being Icarus, since there's no dead role names likely to be a doctor, Roleblocker has enough different flavors it's harder to tell, but Senorita seems like it could be one.

Tempted to cut the Gordian Knot and go for Generica though. Because you see the configuration is such that he's almost certainly maf. Mega and Icarus are at one another's throats, meaning they're almost certainly not on the same side. Meanwhile I'm clear and Jho and Blazing are almost certainly town aligned. Which means regardless of which of the current two people getting voted for is maf their partner is almost certainly Generica unless my maximum paranoia theory is true and Jho is maf.

Thoughts?
 
Joebobjoe said:
Thoughts?
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Well, I suppose either is fine, but Icarus is at 3 votes already.

Besides, for my own side, I shall point out that if Icarus was town and I mafia, I just had to keep my mouth shut about my role to win. I also would also have no reason to poin tout my false flag tied to my role as LDJ never checked me. That and I also called out GG as Mafia. Just confronting Icarus more since he is trying to pin the blame on me.

And if I was Mafia, well... As I said before, I would have moved to eliminate you and Nani as fast as possible. Icarus and GG being found out was possible because both you and LDJ are proven town.
 
I am comfortable with voting Generic_Generica today. In the event we're actually going after Generic_Generica, though, we should probably wait until he has a chance to post. That being said, Icarus' RBing me last night doesn't make any sense, really, nor does his lying about the end of day votecount from yesterday. Perhaps the reason he seems more suspicious is just because he's in thread posting and Gen_Gen isn't, so Gen_Gen hasn't had a chance to say suspicious things, but Icarus seems more suspicious to me. I'm fairly convinced they're both Mafia, though, so the order doesn't matter a huge amount.
 
Blazinghand said:
I am comfortable with voting Generic_Generica today. In the event we're actually going after Generic_Generica, though, we should probably wait until he has a chance to post. That being said, Icarus' RBing me last night doesn't make any sense, really, nor does his lying about the end of day votecount from yesterday. Perhaps the reason he seems more suspicious is just because he's in thread posting and Gen_Gen isn't, so Gen_Gen hasn't had a chance to say suspicious things, but Icarus seems more suspicious to me. I'm fairly convinced they're both Mafia, though, so the order doesn't matter a huge amount.
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Mostly haven't officially voted him exactly because we haven't heard anything from him so far today. Interested in hearing his case and final claim before I go full swing. I mean Icarus is almost certainly scum too, but feel Generica is even more of a suspect because of how the math works out.
 
Megaolix said:
Well, I suppose either is fine, but Icarus is at 3 votes already.
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I'll take "Things a mafia would say but never actually follow through with" for $200, Alex.

Like if you switch to Gen I am 100% down with pressuring him instead since he's my other target of suspicion. But if you're going to make that claim, don't use the excuse of "but we're already 3/4s to killing this guy :("

You want to prove your town? Vote on the person everyone agrees needs to be speaking up right now. Put up or shut up.
 
Joebobjoe said:
Mostly haven't officially voted him exactly because we haven't heard anything from him so far today. Interested in hearing his case and final claim before I go full swing. I mean Icarus is almost certainly scum too, but feel Generica is even more of a suspect because of how the math works out.
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I guess it comes down to a question of how we feel about Megaolix's claim. Here's what we might be looking at, if Megaolix is speaking the truth:

1 Serial Killer
3 Mafia
9 Town-aligned: 3 Masons, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 4 Vanilla

Now, the town-aligned faction instead looks like this if we ALSO believe the Icarus claim:
9 Town-aligned: 3 Masons, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 1 Roleblocker, 3 Vanilla

Which is pushing into some pretty strange territory. I think it's fairly unlikely that town had 3 power roles IN ADDITION to 3 Masons. So When you point out that "one of Megaolix or Icarus is likely Mafia" I think you're on point there.

Personally I think Megaolix's claim is pretty believable. It was made at a point when Megaolix wasn't on the chopping block, and it fits in with what we know about N1 (namely, that a KP was prevented). We know that Icarus didn't actually block mafia N1, so if we think Icarus is telling the truth and Mega isn't, we're assuming Mafia shot either TFS or Shark. That's not impossible, but I think "Mafia Shot Mega's N1 Target, who was a Mason that Mafia really wanted to shoot" seems plausible to me. Mafia shooting for Nani N1 and failing makes sense to me; Nani was the more involved out of Nani+JBJ, and they didn't know there was a doctor at the time. Later on, the fact they knew for sure a doctor exists (since that's the only way Nani would survive being shot) lines up well with them not shooting LDJ, but roleblocking him.

Megaolix's claim explains some of what has happened this game. I don't think Icarus' claim does, nor his claim that he blocked me last night (like, why?).

If we do want to kill gen_gen, again, I think we should wait until he has a chance to post.
 
Blazinghand said:
I guess it comes down to a question of how we feel about Megaolix's claim. Here's what we might be looking at, if Megaolix is speaking the truth:

1 Serial Killer
3 Mafia
9 Town-aligned: 3 Masons, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 4 Vanilla

Now, the town-aligned faction instead looks like this if we ALSO believe the Icarus claim:
9 Town-aligned: 3 Masons, 1 Cop, 1 Doctor, 1 Roleblocker, 3 Vanilla
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You're leaving out something. My theory is :

1 Serial Killer
2 mafia (One bribe + kill flavor, another kill flavor)
10 town-aligned: 3 Masons, 1 cop, 1 jailkeeper ( turned mafia by bribe), 1 cop, 1 roleblocker, 3 vanilla

Mafia is at the initial disadvantage but because there's so many power roles, people might misuse them on each other and the mafia gets to convert someone with a pretty solid established roleclaim. In a sense, the day one mason reveal would have fucked that up because then there was a lot less friendly fire in exchange for risking themselves to a mafia that was smaller than we'd assume. Two mafia start and a convert ability explains the no-kill night one.

I should also point out that I gave my claim at the beginning of yesterday at no prodding. I could have lied about my role, like Mega did. I could have lied about who I roleblocked. But I didn't. Like you can argue that I made mistakes in my targets, though who the hell can blame me for hitting the wrong person on Night One? That doesn't affect the legitimacy of my claim, only my ability to use it.

Your explanation at the bottom there isn't assuming what I was saying. Mega might have been town at one point, but was converted. That way he doesn't have to lie about his night power targets either. If he says "I targetted LDJ", that's technically true but it was with a jailing instead of a direct protection.

And again, with all this in mind in terms of people protecting each other, that's why I picked you for a target last night and fessed up to it immediately. Gen probably knows he's under huge suspicion. If he was a mafia, why wouldn't he hit me or LDJ if we were outed townies unless he knew that it wouldn't affect him for some reason.

At this point I can't even really lie about my roleblocking targets even if I wanted to, for the reasons others have pointed out. It just limits the possibilities of potential mafiaosos far too narrowly. If I was mafia i'd be fucking myself by doing that.
 
Hmmm, I hadn't really thought of the idea of a mafia converter type role. I've never played in a game with one before. Is it common/likely that such a role exists in this game?
 
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