So, should we go with Snark's list for possible suspects to press for this day?
We don't just "go with Snark's list" we react to it and form our own opinions, since of course there's always the possibilty of strange Mafia WIFOM. We carefully evaluate LV, Icarus, Ellf, and Gen_Gen, but we don't say "these are the only people we evaluate" or "these people are automatically Mafia" because this could also potentially play into Mafia hand. We form ideas and discuss them, and we take into account what Snark said. I'm going to start there. I think I might start with LV or Icarus. I will reread what they've posted. LV was Snark's top scumread besides TFS.
Like seriously what the hell happened on night one. That's the question I'm trying to figure out.
If we had a doctor that'd be one thing but if we have a roleblocker that's another thing.
Or I guess we could have a roleblocker on the maf's side but that doesn't explain night one.
Or like, the maf decided to try to off tenfolds who had night immunity. Which would be hilarious but highly unlikely and if that were the case that'd say more about the maf than anything.
Here are my thoughts for what may happened N1.
Scenario 1: Shot Overlaps. In this scenario, TFS and Mafia
both shot Shards. I find this... possible, but unlikely. Although Shards was not the best NK for a vigi, there's no reason Mafia couldn't shoot him. Of course, the odds of them both shooting Shards, not super high.
Scenario 2: Doctor, Veteran, or Jailkeeper Saves either Mafia or SK victim. In this scenario, Mafia or SK shot someone who was saved by a town blue role. This seems fully plausible to me. Most likely Mafia KP was stopped, since if TFS' KP was stopped he might claim that he was RBed/target doctored rather than that he shot Shards.
Scenario 2. b: Mafia Shot TFS: This would be hilarious. TFS returned GUILTY, which means he picked the extra night life. Mafia shooting him would have been funny.
Scenario 3: Mafia RBed TFS, shot Shards: This, like Scenario 1, requires Mafia to decide to shoot Shards, and TFS shot someone else but was RBed by the Mafia RB, and Mafia shot Shards. When he claimed, TFS decided to take credit for the only flip.
So, It's not required that we had a town blue role involved in the singular N1 Nightkill.
That being said, I think the most likely scenario is Scenario 1 or Scenario 2. I think TFS probably
did shoot Shards. If he was Rbed or his target was saved, when he claimed Vigi he would be quasi-truthful and be like "yeah, but I was RBed last night" and hope that the town JK corroborates him. Could 2.b or 3 be possible? sure.
I think a more interesting thing to think about here is, what was mafia thinking yesterday? They knew TFS wasn't Mafia. They knew, potentially, that he was a killing role, like Vigilante. They might have suspected he was the SK, since LDJ had a guilty check on him. In this situation, does Mafia push him? Remain silent? Oppose killing him? We haven't yet flipped a Mafia (which would give us a lot of information about how people would act) but Mafia definitely knew going in to the end of D2 that TFS was NOT Mafia, something that we didn't know. So they may have acted differently, and this is worth analyzing.
