Let's keep in mind this mystery was meant to be solved by the average mobage player. I really don't think they're going to make it all that complicated.
This is all just guesswork at a Kindaichi Shounen Case Files / Detective Conan level of complexity.
Planted dying messages that throw off time of death estimations / guesses toward the identity of the killer literally happen all the time in those settings ...
 
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I wonder how they're going to handle the mystery in the US version in two years, when the culprit will have been known for ages. Skip the event? Change the ending of it? Leave it intact and wonder why everyone is voting for the same guy?
 
As a counterargument to my own argument (because I already voted in contradiction to this):

The poker game alibi is too perfect; and a straightforward interpretation of the death message watch is too face-value. Isn't a watch with the time of death precisely the sort of clue that a criminal thinking to cover themselves would leave behind?

What if we don't accept that the watch is in fact legitimate evidence; and presume instead that it was planted? At that point, the poker game alibi evaporates, and the murder becomes something that could've taken place at any time, before or after the period of time wherein Adamska, Aaron, Ann, Hawthorne, and Wu were engaged.

The question then becomes, who would be able to enter Chris' room, by force or by deceit? The obvious answer is the Marble Company, because they have access to all parts of the building and grounds. If Wu or Ann desired it, locked doors wouldn't obstruct their efforts at forcing an entrance; and being that Chris trusts in the two of them, forcing their way in isn't even necessary. Once they have access to his person, both of them could've easily killed him, and thereon planted evidence to mislead the investigation.

It's already been established that if Wu were hostile, he could kill anyone within the mansion almost instantly; and going through the trouble of arranging for a poison and so forth is a step that he wouldn't need to take. On the other hand, if the investigator is made aware of Wu's combat capabilities, a complicated means of murder is precisely the sort of thing that would exclude him from the list of suspects if employed.

Ergo, merely because there isn't any necessity for Wu to adopt such a complicated method of murder doesn't mean that he cannot do so. If engineering a specific outcome between the two families is the motive, and averting suspicion from himself is a caveat observed, it would be child's play for him to orchestrate a theatrical murder to drive things home.

The problem with Wu is, no motive can be established for him per the event dialogue as it presently stands. He has no reason to kill Morris, and even less of a reason to kill Chris.

What about Ann, then? Would the culprit intentionally leave behind a dying message that apparently incriminates herself? Obviously not.

Or rather, that's what a very gullible detective would think.

Ann has a rock-solid alibi, and the murderer ineptly attempted to incriminate her anyways. Moriarty and Mashu's hypothesis that Ann is Chris' mother is entirely reasonable -- and any Watson that examines Aaron's unnatural testimony regarding Chris' adoption as a Company ward would immediately conclude that there's a good chance that Ann is Chris' biological mother. Even if she isn't, Chris might regard her as a mother figure anyhow. Ergo, if Chris names the culprit as 'mom' in a dying message, it would obviously refer to Ann.

Therefore, supposing that the dying message is entirely the work of the culprit -- Ann cannot be the culprit.

Except, that's wrong -- for precisely the same reason it's wrong to presume that it would be impossible for Wu to engage in the poisoning of a victim. It's entirely possible that Ann planted clues to incriminate herself so as to convince the investigator that the culprit couldn't have been her.

And for her, we do have a motive.

Let's suppose it's true that she was Aaron's former lover, and Chris' biological mother; and that Aaron set her aside to marry Morris' mother. Thereon, let's suppose that for whatever reason, she was forced bury the fact of her relationship with Chris; but nevertheless fostered a complete loyalty within him. Taking this as a starting premise, let's suppose that she one day arrives at a position whereby she holds the agency to entirely destroy just about everything that Aaron ever cared about. She can kill his sons. She can shatter his family. She can make inevitable the annihilation of his organization.

Would she fire the shot?

Chris stated at one point early on that if necessary, he would die on behalf of the Marble Company. Does Ann privately hold an antipathy toward him, merely because he was born of Aaron's seed? Is Chris' loyalty sufficient that he would literally die for her if she asked?

In short, is the victim an accomplice to the culprit?
I couldn't help but read all this in Poirot's voice.
 
The writer is apparently some well known mystery writer who only just joined the FGO writing team, so I don't know.
Yeah, apparently Kogetsukan was written by Madoi Ban, who recently joined Type Moon as their fifth scenario writer. The fact that the company behind the massive success of Fate Grand Order only has five scenario writers seems kinda crazy to me, although I have no idea what the "typical" amount of writers is for similar projects. Maybe that's normal, I don't know.
 
Yeah, apparently Kogetsukan was written by Madoi Ban, who recently joined Type Moon as their fifth scenario writer. The fact that the company behind the massive success of Fate Grand Order only has five scenario writers seems kinda crazy to me, although I have no idea what the "typical" amount of writers is for similar projects. Maybe that's normal, I don't know.
FGO honestly doesn't have that much writing compared to...oh, say, a VN (which is what Type Moon was founded to make).

Besides, as long as you can drag Nasu away from Dark Souls, you can get all the wordswordswords out of him you want by dangling shellfish in front of him. With Takeuchi you have to threaten his saberface collection, but it's honestly not that much more difficult.
 
FGO honestly doesn't have that much writing compared to...oh, say, a VN (which is what Type Moon was founded to make).
That actually isn't true.

I don't have the time to do a full word count to file size comparison, but puretext rips of FSN exist in Shift-JIS, whereas Grand Order rips have historically been in UTF-8. A comparison of filesizes for 20,000 Japanese characters is as follows:

Text Source = Fate -> Encoding = Shift-JIS -> Filesize: 37,409 bytes
Text Source = GO -> Encoding = UTF-8 -> Filesize: 38,500 bytes (+2.91% over Shift-JIS)
Text Source = Mahoyo -> Encoding = UTF-8 -> 40,002 bytes (+6.93% over Shift-JIS)

This probably isn't a very scientific way of doing things -- and I'm by no means a computer science expert -- but, IMO, it passes for a quick and simple filesize comparison per equal amounts of text. Note that the Mahoyo and Fate rips used for the above comparison are almost entirely Japanese in file content, whereas the Grand Order rip is contains a mess of non-Japanese formatting marks and random bits of code.

Suffice to say, the Mahoyo rip is on average a closer equivalent to the Fate rip in file content / composition. We can therefore roughly presume that there's a 7% gain in filesize when something is converted from Shift-JIS to UTF-8.

Now, I've listed below some actual puretext filesizes, for comparison.

Shift-JIS:
  • FATE, excluding Prologue = 1,576,679 bytes
  • UBW, excluding Prologue = 1,422,737 bytes
  • HF, excluding Prologue = 1,785,931 bytes
  • FSN RN, including Prologue = 4,924,207 bytes
  • FHA = 694,104 bytes
UTF-8:
  • Kara no Kyoukai = 1,069,304 bytes
  • Mirai Fukuin = 122,637 bytes
  • Mahou Tsukai no Yoru = 1,236,611 bytes

  • Fuyuki = 205,013 bytes
  • Orleans = 399,119 bytes
  • Roma = 309,365 bytes
  • Okeanos = 450,299 bytes
  • London = 418,795 bytes
  • America = 679,346 bytes
  • Camelot = 1,158,374 bytes
  • Babylonia = 1,432,731 bytes
  • Salamon = 493,437 bytes
  • FGO 1.0 Main Story = 5,546,479 bytes
If I inflate the Fate / FHA filesizes by +6.93% so as to make them hypothetically match their equivalent if converted to UTF-8, they might look like this:
  • FATE, excluding Prologue = 1,685,943 bytes (hypothetical)
  • UBW, excluding Prologue = 1,521,337 bytes (hypothetical)
  • HF, excluding Prologue = 1,909,696 bytes (hypothetical)
  • FSN RN, including Prologue = 5,265,455 bytes (hypothetical)
  • FHA = 742,205 bytes (hypothetical)
Ergo, no, Grand Order doesn't actually have less text in general compared to a VN. Given, inflation by formatting code in Grand Order hasn't been accounted for above -- but even if we presume that 85% of Grand Order's puretext rip is just code, the overall length of the 1.0 Main Story (hypothetically, 831,972 bytes) is still longer than FHA.
 
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Randomly, as to fulfill a request by @linkhyrule5, two of the sources for the difference between the Fate and Tsukihime Universes:
Bamboo Broom - 2017/4/15 (JP) said:
TYPE-MOONの伝奇……というか、奈須きのこがTYPE-MOONでやっている伝奇は『すべて同じ世界』と思われがちですが、それはあくまで基本であって大きく二つ の系統に分かれている事は今までちょろちょろ説明してきました。

英霊がサーヴァントとして使役できるFate世界と、
英霊なんて強大な概念を"自律した使い魔"なんて術式に落とし込めるワケねーだろ、という月姫世界ですね 。

Fate世界の下地は『人類史を肯定するもの』なので英霊も主役として考えられますが、
月姫世界の下地は『人類史を■■するもの』なので、その敵対者である死徒たちが主題となる、みたいな違いで す。

んで。月姫におけるある人物……教会において二十七祖の一人と数えられたもの……は『ある出会い』を経て強 力な死徒となります。
しかしFate世界ではそもそも『ある出会い』がないため、死徒になりこそすれど『祖のひとり』に数えられるほどの力は持たず、その秘術も劣化したものとなります。
そのあたりの差違……世界の土台は同じでも前提が異なる事で登場人物の在り方も異なる……を楽しんでいただければこれ幸い。
Bamboo Broom - 2017/4/15 (EN) said:
The romances (伝奇, denki, in the sense of literary genre that eventually turned into "fantasy") of TYPE-MOON ... or rather, the romances that Nasu Kinoko has at TYPE-MOON crafted are commonly regarded to 『all be of the same world』, but the matter of their being in the end fundamentally divided into two broad systems has until now been [in fact] revealed in bits and pieces.

Those worlds of Fate, wherein Heroic Spirits can be employed in the capacity of Servants, and
those worlds of Tsukihime, wherein it is outright unthinkable that Concepts of such strength as a Heroic Spirit could by a spell be debased as 「autonomous familiars」.

Being that the underpinnings (下地, shitaji, "groundwork / foundation") of the worlds of Fate would be 『those existences that affirm the History of Man』, it is conceivable that Heroic Spirits might also act in the capacity of protagonists;
whereas, being that the underpinnings of the worlds of Tsukihime would be 『those existences that ■■ the History of Man』, those Dead Apostles that are the antagonists of such become as the theme -- the difference [between the two] would be something like that.

So. A certain figure that appears in Tsukihime ... an existence that is within the Church counted amongst the Twenty-Seven Ancestors ... was by way of 『a certain encounter』 let to become a Dead Apostle of significant strength.
However, as in the worlds of Fate, 『a certain encounter』did not in the first place occur, though indeed he became a Dead Apostle, he did not come to hold sufficient strength as to count as 『one amongst the Ancestors』, and those esoteric techniques (秘術, hijutsu, "secret techniques"; "Mysteries" is a mistranslation) [that he held] were become as reduced existences.
Divergences of this variety ... wherein even as the basis of the worlds are identical, the manner in which the dramatis personae come to be expressed differ on account of divergent premises ... [I would be] delighted if [you, the audience] could enjoy this.
And the bit stated by Wolfgang Faustus in Fate Labyrinth:
Fate Labyrinth (EN/JP) said:
「人理が命として脈動し、
In such Worlds (世界, sekai) where the Human Order (人理, jinri) pulses (脈動, myakudou) as a lifeblood (命, inochi, lit. "a life");
時に英霊なりし幻想と神秘を儀式によってサーヴァント等という形態で召喚し得る世界にあって、
where at times, those Fantasies (幻想, gensou) and Mysteries (神秘, shinpi) that are as Heroic Spirits (英霊, eirei) may by way of Rituals (儀式, gishiki) be summoned forth in such forms (形態, keitai, lit. "form-state") as that which are called as Servants --
人が変じた死の怪物などにさしたる力はない。
those monsters of death and the like that are as men transfigured are of no significant power.
人を襲い、命と血を食らって長らえる吸血種がこの人理脈動する世界に有り得るとすれば、それは幻想に属するものだ。
If within those Worlds that pulse of the Human Order there might yet exist Vampiric Breeds (吸血種, kyuuketsu-shu) that prey upon men -- persisting on the consumption of life and blood -- such would be as entities that belong of the taxonomy of Fantasies.
神秘として顕れたるものだ。」
Such would be as Mysteries manifest.
Fate Labyrinth (EN) said:
「In such Worlds where the Human Order pulses as a lifeblood;
where at times, those Fantasies and Mysteries that are as Heroic Spirits may by way of Rituals be summoned forth in such forms as that which are called as Servants --
those monsters of death and the like that are as men transfigured are of no significant power.
If within those Worlds that pulse of the Human Order there might yet exist Vampiric Breeds that prey upon men -- persisting on the consumption of life and blood -- such would be as entities that belong of the taxonomy of Fantasies.
Such would be as Mysteries manifest. 」
 
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Didn't one of the NA promotions say that it's somewhere past half a million words?

EDIT: Section 8 is out too.

 
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If Ann- Payback against Aaron?

Dorothy- Her daughter inherits everything

Violet mom-The representative of The character certainly would do that
(Raikou and Euryale would murder for their daughter/sister)

But Chris is a fighter according to Wu...hmmm
 
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But Chris is a fighter according to Wu...hmmm
Wu only said that if it were an encounter that involved open hostility prior to Chris getting injected, Chris was of sufficient skill in self-defense that he would've been able to fight back. Also, he's specifically had training to wake up on detecting unusual noises. Ergo, the encounter with the culprit could only have occurred on initially friendly terms, without anticipation on Chris' part that his guest would attempt to murder him.

Unless, you know, his room was invaded by somebody with access to the keys, who happened to outclass him so utterly in physical capabilities that he couldn't have even put up a struggle.

Or, if he was so incredibly loyal to the culprit that he'd be willing to die on their behalf.

Anyhow, Ann has an alibi, and the current voting looks like this:


I like how about 1% of voters think that Moriarty was the culprit ...
 
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On Chapter 5 of MahoYoru, got to the bit where Alice shows up and summons Flat Snark. I'm really digging the exposition on magecraft - no surprise given my fondness for Case Files.

Aoko's a pretty interesting character - she's perfectly willing to kill, even people she likes, but prefers doing it upfront so that the victim at least knows why they have to die and has a chance to survive. It's a character point that I like.

I spoiled myself of Soujuurou's deal years ago, but they really foreshadow it, don't they?

The curse puppet was pretty disturbing (Touko has issues), as was Aoko's hallucination (?) of the red shadow.
 
I mean imagine training your whole life to wield something, everything you did is for that sake alone

And then grandpa who trained and watched you all over those years drop out of fucking nowhere that no you ain't getting it, instead your sister who trained jack receives everything on a silver platter without having to go through half of your hard work

Granted those words are biased and based on Touko's point of view but you can sorta see where she comes from

And that's just the start of Touko's issues
 
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The curse puppet was pretty disturbing (Touko has issues), as was Aoko's hallucination (?) of the red shadow.
People have speculated that the red shadow is the same 'red riding hood' that's hunting Ayaka in Strange Fake - a manifestation of the Counter Force prepared to kill the shit out of anyone trying to reach the Root through True Magic.
 
People have speculated that the red shadow is the same 'red riding hood' that's hunting Ayaka in Strange Fake - a manifestation of the Counter Force prepared to kill the shit out of anyone trying to reach the Root through True Magic.
Why does the Counter Force/Alaya try to kill anyone who attempts to reach the Root, again? Don't you die as soon as you poke it anyway?
 
People have speculated that the red shadow is the same 'red riding hood' that's hunting Ayaka in Strange Fake - a manifestation of the Counter Force prepared to kill the shit out of anyone trying to reach the Root through True Magic.

Yeah, that was actually my first thought - I know that the red shadow appears when Aoko goes for the Root, but I didn't know that it appeared before that. Especially since (and I may have misread the scene) it's implied that she's been seeing it even before she was picked as the successor to the Blue.

But it seems kind of weird for it to be following Ayaka around? She's not even a magus, and she was seeing it even before Zelretch sent her across worlds. It might be, but I figure that it's hallucination on her part because of guilt, or else some other kind of magecraft-thing.

Though I do have a history of being profoundly wrong.
 
  • The Kogetsukan event -- where Guda's mind was arbitrarily projected into the body of some random college student in the near future.
  • The Apocrypha collaboration -- where her mind / soul was summoned into a temporary body in the Reverse of the World, to serve as a Master in a Grail War. (I didn't know that Grail Wars involved Grails summoning Masters ...)
  • The Hokusai Trial Quest -- where she was brought into a dream constructed by an Outer God.
  • Shimousa -- where her mind / soul somehow projected into a temporary body within an Item Designated For Removal, several hundred years in the past.
Guda is becoming more and more like a Servant every day...

EDIT:

Incidentally, the end of the Kogetsukan event was essentially, "You were the Watson all along, Guda."
 
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Incidentally, the end of the Kogetsukan event was essentially, "You were the Watson all along, Guda."
Is...uh, anybody surprised?

The whole point of Watson was to have a point of view character who didn't make absurd inferences from evidence that was never mentioned in their narration.
 
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