Touhou: Scarlet Devil M̶a̶n̶s̶i̶o̶n̶ Mafia

Should Day 2 be extended by another twenty-four hours?

  • Yes

    Votes: 10 83.3%
  • No

    Votes: 2 16.7%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
End of Night 5/Start of Day 6
The party of nine from where they had entered in the night comes out to a party of seven, all of them looking as two more of their numbers have vanished. And so like every night prior, the two missing are revealed.



The first is revealed as Reisen Inaba, Moon Rabbit on Earth (@Shalmoa), who 'died' from a Knock on the Head.



The second is revealed as Alice Margatroid, Seven-Colored Puppet Master (@dinomannitro6), who 'died' from being Knocked Out In A Closet.

And a message is left upon the table to read.

Reevals needed on Walker's flip
Everyone needs progressions now IMO
Hobo's vote NAI even if late due to self-pres
Other votes probably won't get good info at this point
Not sure if absences are notable right now (Dino/Comi, YP to a lesser extent)
Figure one more affordable miss ATM but needs serious discussion given game length
Probably makes it a good spot to fill out claim space
Wiadi, Comi, Atoms are the only unclaimed ATM
Atoms can clear with N5 Town kill, Wiadi/Comi mech-locked out of Odd-Night TKP

And so the seven members of the party begin the sixth day…

End of Day is at
 
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I think her pushing me suspicious when we have far more suspect people, both active and inactive.
You know, I just disagree with this entirely. I don't think any of your scum reads present anything indicative of suspicious behavior, and your suspicion of Wiadi's actions doesn't seem to consider her headspace at all, proven by this very post.

[x] Vote Variable
 
By all means, if you're going to maintain your current scum reads, I highly encourage you to expand upon them, because as it stands right now I just don't see anything actionable from them.
 
You know, I just disagree with this entirely. I don't think any of your scum reads present anything indicative of suspicious behavior, and your suspicion of Wiadi's actions doesn't seem to consider her headspace at all, proven by this very post.

[x] Vote Variable
I would point out that several people share my scum reads and we're in the second day of the game. Even if you feel my social hunches and roles suspicions are unfounded, Young Pyromancer is the overlapping factor in a few people's theories.
 
Do note that those are mostly people who I haven't played with before, with the exception of Byzantine, but we always tunnel each other lol.
Well, you and Hugh are still on my list. I'm a little suspicious on some of the apparent coordination going on here as well, though I'm willing to put it down to early days preservation for now.

I definitely want to hear from the low posters as well, since we have three townies dead with nothing to show for it.
 
Mmn. Do we have nothing to show for it, though? Does everyone think the EoD scramble means nothing?
 
Is that...even a question? Like most of the time I would consider a town double voter a massive boon. The only situation it isn't is in where said double voter is prone to making bad calls but even then that's a player issue moreso than a power issue. The power itself is great because it's a lingering sword against just rapidly thinning the numbers, scum will eventually have to deal with the threat of a double voter as it gets exponentially stronger the small the pool shrinks. Forcing scum to respond to it or delay their victory is a win-win for us, a lose-lose for them.
You're misreading that. The point is that DV being real isn't what decides whether it is town positive. What decides that is whether the DV is held by scum or town, and proving it's real is completely orthogonal to that.
Gonna post to confirm that Absum's on point with my interpretation here, but I think other than that the DV discussion has run its course.
 
Mmn. Do we have nothing to show for it, though? Does everyone think the EoD scramble means nothing?
My opinion on what we got out of it is that none of the LHF slots besides maybe hugh's are interesting in the slightest, which is why I came into today suggesting that we push harder on the stronger players. I wouldn't really call that nothing myself, even if it probably feels super floaty to everyone else.
 
I'm not a fan of the idea based on what Wiadi pulled myself (mostly because I know how I have reacted to responses to pushes like that in the past, though I won't speak for Shal outright on that front), but what you're saying here feels much more akin to "Wiadi is not to be trusted" than "I think Wiadi's ideas are incorrect" the way I'm reading it.
Re: @Wiadi's case on me, I'm reading it rather positively even though it's (from my perspective) pretty off base, because at least it shows actual effort in addressing someone who both has some content out there and (AFAICT, ego-searching) most people haven't formed strong reads on.

Good stuff IMO, I'm not going to complain about the effort.

That being said, if people want to throw votes at me, I'd prefer to get that started tonight instead of 5 minutes before EoD tomorrow. :V
 
I would point out that several people share my scum reads and we're in the second day of the game. Even if you feel my social hunches and roles suspicions are unfounded, Young Pyromancer is the overlapping factor in a few people's theories.
Right now I'm focused on your reads, not others. Just because other people may share your opinions on slots, doesn't mean your reasons for having those opinions are any better because of it.
 
@ComiTurtle say something townie so I can stop building my scum logos conspiracy post and kill like shal or something instead.

I'm at work will actually read the game when I get off, until then all I can say is I'm good and I have no inherent Touhou knowledge.

I claim that whomever is the 4th person alive on the player list is scum. (Please don't be my slot I'm not checking)
 
Righty-o, Variable reread time.

I feel like @Clown Bean is pretty town-sided, given that the double-vote makes sense only for townie. The disclosure also won me over somewhat, for now.

(I also hope you're alright; you mentioned not feeling well.)
Trusts Bean for an early claim but it is an actual claim so consistent with pro-disclosure attitude at least. Later the reason for this being not entirely founded (i.e. DV is not Town-only) is addressed but didn't see a direct response there.
Sorry about the delay; I just had lunch out with some relatives who are in town for the week.

Ruminating on this, my preliminary list would basically be 99L at this point, if that.
Early sus on 99L in response to uh...that. Fair TBH, though the lack of attention elsewhere is noted.
Just to be sure, why are some people nominating Young Pyromancer? 99L was because of the suspicious roleclaiming, but I'm drawing a blank with YP.
Unclear on what people were initially voting YP about; spoilers for later, but he's clearly come around since then.
Right now, I'm really only set 99L as scum, with my concerns about the roleclaiming. I'm inherently suspicious of first day roleclaiming or hinting.

I feel like some powerwolfing is afoot, but I'm taking one thing at time.

[x] Vote NinetyNineLies
"Inherently suspicious of first-day roleclaiming" doesn't really line up with the immediate Town read on Bean, I've gotta say. But as noted earlier that was an actual straight-up claim and Variable's other posting has tended to favor a sort of "all or nothing" mentality more than distrust of claims entirely. So maybe just unclear wording?
That is more a quirk of me preferring to focus on one potential scum the first few days since there isn't much to go on. I generally like to divide problems up to manageable sizes for solving. After the first couple of days, I generally try to come up with a full scum.

If 99L flips town, I would probably look at whoever is steering the conversation because I feel like the early game is where they would be laying the groundwork for that. Surprisingly, I more or less trust Nictis at the moment, who would otherwise be my prime suspect for that.

I'd also look more at low posters as we get into the new year and people get out of the celebratory mood, though I sympathize with that since I've got relatives staying with me through New Year's.
Understandable methodology but I'll definitely be looking for that full-team analysis in the coming Days, if Variable lasts that long.
Some of you got an early start, so I'm sorry for the absence since I got up in party festivities with girlfriend last night since I'm spending tonight family. I'm going to be doing that this evening, but I should be back on an uninterrupted basis tomorrow. (I feel like some holiday slack time might have affected play slightly, but we're getting to the nitty gritty now.)

That said, my general impression is confusion over the vote with Zaealix when there were more warranted potential targets that could have been drilled down on like 99L or YP. I'm also confused about why Roach was killed, both because it looks coded in green for a town kill (which someone could explain to me) AND if we're going for the low posting hypothesis, there was lower posters to my eye. I also think Nictis is major loss for us given that he was offering solid direction.

In terms of reads and my vote, I'm still on the 99L wagon.
Marking that Variable has changed tacks on YP by the time of this post, though still favoring 99L as more sus.
I'm also going say that maybe people should stop with the roleclaiming, especially if they're going to be vague as hell about the role. It apparently only makes you target and we need players with powers on the town side with the way the game is shaping up.

But since so many people have gone public, it might help if 99L, YP, and Hugh did clarify. I'm conflicted about this, though, because I don't want a situation where we're killing players with special roles while we get picked off by scum.
Perhaps I'm missing some greater strategy here, but where is the payoff with beside putting a target on your back?
I mean, I would think it would've been more advantageous for Hugh not to say that and I'm curious about what his role is exactly?


It begs the question what your role is.
Further evidence for "all-or-nothing" approach to claims, which I think is bad but not sure if it's Scummy or just playstyle. Don't like the fishing though.
TL;DR: Variable seems pretty firmly in favor of full role claims and keeping silent with very little trust for the middle ground. I'm not sure this is inherently Scummy but it (a) seems incorrect to me, (b) doesn't seem to have a clear reasoning behind it, and (c) gives an excuse for fishing for claims, which is definitely bad. Other than that, suspicion seemed until recently centered on 99L with a growing secondary sus on Pyro - not sure of the progression on the latter TBQH. Not much else immediately of note to me though if others have thoughts I'd welcome them.

That takes us up to the point of our recent conflict. Also got some stuff I wanna poke at from after, but separating it out as I'll be asking for responses directly & dividing by topic rather than strict chronology.

Regarding me:
But we have a whole universe of relatively inactive posters and players who only get active toward EoD, so I'm regarding you as more suspicious than before.
Kindly explain what you meant by this, particularly with reference to "inactive posters and players who only get active toward EoD"?
I think her pushing me suspicious when we have far more suspect people, both active and inactive.
Because this supposed explanation doesn't actually address the activity point at all, instead implying it to be irrelevant.

Regarding role stuff:
Which is what I'm way more suspicious of any early mentioning of roles now. They're kinks in the chain I'd prefer straightened before the endgame.
What's the logical connection here supposed to be? You got bamboozled by someone else's bad role info and so...you want early role hints to be resolved with full claims? That's a total non sequitur. A literal full claim from the entire game wouldn't save you from a Cop check on a Godfather, assuming the Scum team has plausible fakeclaims lined up (and if they don't, then that's gonna get hit equally hard by the full claim regardless, so it's still just an unrelated question).

Regarding YP:
You are simply trying to swim out of the hot water you're in right now.

[x] Vote Young Pyromancer
What, exactly, is the hot water YP was supposedly in at the time of that post?
I would point out that several people share my scum reads and we're in the second day of the game. Even if you feel my social hunches and roles suspicions are unfounded, Young Pyromancer is the overlapping factor in a few people's theories.
If you think there's a case to be made against YP then make it, don't just gesture vaguely at "a few people" and appeal to the crowd.
 
Righty-o, Variable reread time.

Trusts Bean for an early claim but it is an actual claim so consistent with pro-disclosure attitude at least. Later the reason for this being not entirely founded (i.e. DV is not Town-only) is addressed but didn't see a direct response there.

Early sus on 99L in response to uh...that. Fair TBH, though the lack of attention elsewhere is noted.

Unclear on what people were initially voting YP about; spoilers for later, but he's clearly come around since then.

"Inherently suspicious of first-day roleclaiming" doesn't really line up with the immediate Town read on Bean, I've gotta say. But as noted earlier that was an actual straight-up claim and Variable's other posting has tended to favor a sort of "all or nothing" mentality more than distrust of claims entirely. So maybe just unclear wording?

Understandable methodology but I'll definitely be looking for that full-team analysis in the coming Days, if Variable lasts that long.

Marking that Variable has changed tacks on YP by the time of this post, though still favoring 99L as more sus.



Further evidence for "all-or-nothing" approach to claims, which I think is bad but not sure if it's Scummy or just playstyle. Don't like the fishing though.
TL;DR: Variable seems pretty firmly in favor of full role claims and keeping silent with very little trust for the middle ground. I'm not sure this is inherently Scummy but it (a) seems incorrect to me, (b) doesn't seem to have a clear reasoning behind it, and (c) gives an excuse for fishing for claims, which is definitely bad. Other than that, suspicion seemed until recently centered on 99L with a growing secondary sus on Pyro - not sure of the progression on the latter TBQH. Not much else immediately of note to me though if others have thoughts I'd welcome them.

That takes us up to the point of our recent conflict. Also got some stuff I wanna poke at from after, but separating it out as I'll be asking for responses directly & dividing by topic rather than strict chronology.

Regarding me:

Kindly explain what you meant by this, particularly with reference to "inactive posters and players who only get active toward EoD"?

Because this supposed explanation doesn't actually address the activity point at all, instead implying it to be irrelevant.

Regarding role stuff:

What's the logical connection here supposed to be? You got bamboozled by someone else's bad role info and so...you want early role hints to be resolved with full claims? That's a total non sequitur. A literal full claim from the entire game wouldn't save you from a Cop check on a Godfather, assuming the Scum team has plausible fakeclaims lined up (and if they don't, then that's gonna get hit equally hard by the full claim regardless, so it's still just an unrelated question).

Regarding YP:

What, exactly, is the hot water YP was supposedly in at the time of that post?

If you think there's a case to be made against YP then make it, don't just gesture vaguely at "a few people" and appeal to the crowd.
I mean, any anybody can cut up quotes to take them out of context, but I clearly laid rationale for being suspicious of YP's vagueposting about his role and it was the first day, during the holidays, no less.

You on the other hand have been relatively inactive, though suddenly now you seem to be homing in on me with Rosen in tow, based on very little, which begs the question of why I'm being sweated when at most I'm guilty of relying social hunches and gut feelings early in game when we have very little information. What is your interest in YP, as well?

I could be persuaded to move to Hugh, who I haven't seen much posting from, but I'd need good reasons to do so.
 
To my eye, EoD was mostly people scrambling to vote after putting it off. But with no role info dropping, we're not just short three people; we are starting with even less information than we normally would.
Sure, but why did they vote for who they did, why didn't they vote for who they didn't, etc. Scrambling to vote doesn't mean that scrambling to vote is the only notable thing about the situation.
Omfg it is me, don't listen to me
[x] vote Comiturtle
 
Sure, but why did they vote for who they did, why didn't they vote for who they didn't, etc. Scrambling to vote doesn't mean that scrambling to vote is the only notable thing about the situation.
I was just observing that it creates a chaotic environment where players are panic-voting without thinking things through and where hotswitches that favor the scum agenda are more likely to succeed. To me, it seemed people were voting for Zaealix based on apprehension about his posting style.
 
I mean, any anybody can cut up quotes to take them out of context, but I clearly laid rationale for being suspicious of YP's vagueposting about his role and it was the first day, during the holidays, no less.
If there's context you think I'm missing then by all means feel free to add it. I'm getting real tired of your broad gestures at things without bothering to cite them.
You on the other hand have been relatively inactive, though suddenly now you seem to be homing in on me with Rosen in tow, based on very little, which begs the question of why I'm being sweated when at most I'm guilty of relying social hunches and gut feelings early in game when we have very little information.
My activity levels are subject to my day-to-day life far more than to any in-thread factors and I'll thank you not to make A Thing of them. This is what's happening when I'm around so it's what I'm focusing on. If there's something you think I should be paying more attention to, feel free to make an actual case for what and why.
What is your interest in YP, as well?

I could be persuaded to move to Hugh, who I haven't seen much posting from, but I'd need good reasons to do so.
This, for the record, is not what an actual case looks like. It's what cheap deflection looks like. I was gonna be more mad about it because I thought it was a repeated pattern but then I went looking to source that and apparently I'm just fucking hallucinating, IDK, but it's still not a good look.
 
Ugh, most this all reads as senseless noise to me and Hugh has still not responded
@Byzantine you between Hugh, Pyro, and Cycubed who do you read as Scum and who as town, then give me back three names to do the same.
 
This, for the record, is not what an actual case looks like. It's what cheap deflection looks like. I was gonna be more mad about it because I thought it was a repeated pattern but then I went looking to source that and apparently I'm just fucking hallucinating, IDK, but it's still not a good look.
I mean, a bad look would be you and Rosen apparently and spontaneously focusing on my suspicions about YP, who did hint at some role which could possibly hint at being scum or at least helpful to town, particularly after you came under suspicion from Shalmoa a page before, if I recall correctly. Quite frankly, I'm revisiting my scum reads of both of you given that this doesn't feel too organic. So provisionally:

[×] Vote Wiadi


My activity levels are subject to my day-to-day life far more than to any in-thread factors and I'll thank you not to make A Thing of them. This is what's happening when I'm around so it's what I'm focusing on. If there's something you think I should be paying more attention to, feel free to make an actual case for what and why.
I could make a similar argument for myself since I'm on vacation and the holidays just passed. So maybe not judging my impressions too harshly could be in order, especially since I'm posting while hanging with family and housemates.

But I clearly stated where my suspicions were and we're in early days still this game, so I don't really know what more you want. (This also is a game where taking moves like abstaining from voting or jumping to intercede on another player's behalf is liable to get you lynched, so I'm very reluctant to trust low posters or players with roles I don't understand.)
 
though suddenly now you seem to be homing in on me with Rosen in tow, based on very little, which begs the question of why I'm being sweated when at most I'm guilty of relying social hunches and gut feelings early in game when we have very little information.
I mean, a bad look would be you and Rosen apparently and spontaneously focusing on my suspicions about YP, who did hint at some role which could possibly hint at being scum or at least helpful to town, particularly after you came under suspicion from Shalmoa a page before, if I recall correctly. Quite frankly, I'm revisiting my scum reads of both of you given that this doesn't feel too organic. So provisionally:
Someone please sanity-check me here but I think just because Wiadi and I are pressuring you doesn't mean it's some concerted effort to get you killed. I'm pressuring you because I think your reads are poor, and your justifications for them being poor are poor. Whether that leads to you dying depends entirely on your responses, and what I've seen in response to that is a combination of deflecting and minimalizing, the former on the basis of what looks like purely OMGUS (again, need a sanity check that I'm not conf-biasing myself please), and the latter on the basis of saying the pressure is based on very little in the first place (which is pretty objectively incorrect).

If you're going to call the pressure out as bad, then explain why said pressure is bad. The quotes I pulled to make this post are just "I'm being ganged up on" and just aren't productive to anyone's headspace. Not yours, not mine, not Wiadi's, not anybody else's.
 
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