The Morrsley Village Experiment

I'm sure I don't have to tell anybody this, but if @-Rosen does turn out to be part of a scum team, @Cyricubed should be high on our list of likely additional members.
 
I'm sure I don't have to tell anybody this, but if @-Rosen does turn out to be part of a scum team, @Cyricubed should be high on our list of likely additional members.
Out of curiosity, why?

I haven't reviewed Day 1 yet, and I mostly remember Rosen arguing against both lynches. If Cyricubed was his ally, why wasn't he pushing more on ondine?

Although, the lynch did switch with Tykan's last second vote, but it was a bit too neck and neck for a while there for me to really think that Rosen wouldn't have done more to actually prevent the lynch landing on an ally if one was in the ringing.

I could just be missing stuff, I'll see when I get around to doing that review.
 
Until I look over things again, I'm going to say that I'm thinking that Cyricubed and Rosen aren't grouped up.
 
@Shadell Actually, mind quoting where you seem to think that Cyricubed was missing the 'Town Cues' for me? I think it'll help clarify things one way or another here, but I'm pretty sure he was arguing against the plays that Hobo and ondine were doing on principle.
 
Out of curiosity, why?

I haven't reviewed Day 1 yet, and I mostly remember Rosen arguing against both lynches. If Cyricubed was his ally, why wasn't he pushing more on ondine?

Although, the lynch did switch with Tykan's last second vote, but it was a bit too neck and neck for a while there for me to really think that Rosen wouldn't have done more to actually prevent the lynch landing on an ally if one was in the ringing.

I could just be missing stuff, I'll see when I get around to doing that review.
Because while there were good reasons to oppose the Cyricubed lynch, those reasons don't really apply to scum. Being consistently defended by scum isn't totally damning but it doesn't look great.
 
By the by, I am on board for the eventual -Rosen lynch, I just don't want to get us too close to hammer.
 
Because while there were good reasons to oppose the Cyricubed lynch, those reasons don't really apply to scum. Being consistently defended by scum isn't totally damning but it doesn't look great.
As someone who is almost always scum: The probably single most often reason I've been called out as scum is for defending people who aren't my teammates.

On a different note, pocketing is a thing. And honestly, it doesn't feel like the actions lead to Rosen having been defending a teammate so much as not being caught as the one who lynched Town. He argued to either lynch Shadell or null the lynch entirely.

...

I should really go do that review to make sure I'm not talking out of my ass here...
 
As someone who is almost always scum: The probably single most often reason I've been called out as scum is for defending people who aren't my teammates.

On a different note, pocketing is a thing. And honestly, it doesn't feel like the actions lead to Rosen having been defending a teammate so much as not being caught as the one who lynched Town. He argued to either lynch Shadell or null the lynch entirely.

...

I should really go do that review to make sure I'm not talking out of my ass here...
At the end it was down to ondine or Shadell. I don't think Cyricubed was in danger at that point.
 
At the end it was down to ondine or Shadell. I don't think Cyricubed was in danger at that point.
Yeah, just vaguely checked. Timeframes were not as tight as I thought they were, but the push on Cyricubed is looking exactly as bad as I remember it looking before. Vague and with slight references without context, and built up far too quickly.

So... Less against the idea of a Rosen/Cyri team, just as against the idea of Cyri being scum as I was before.

Can't strongly say that I think he's Town, but I don't see any reason to think that he isn't so far.
 
Whatever I've already said what I can without getting into a shit fit so do what you want at this point
 
Yeah, just vaguely checked. Timeframes were not as tight as I thought they were, but the push on Cyricubed is looking exactly as bad as I remember it looking before. Vague and with slight references without context, and built up far too quickly.

So... Less against the idea of a Rosen/Cyri team, just as against the idea of Cyri being scum as I was before.

Can't strongly say that I think he's Town, but I don't see any reason to think that he isn't so far.
I thought the push was pretty indefensible, too. I pushed the lynch on ondine in response to it, after all. But Rosen's continued defense and saying he's "pretty damned sure" Cyri isn't scum seems a bit beyond just recognizing the lynch was kind of bogus.

I don't think we should lynch Cyricubed, no matter what infor we get when Rosen flips, I just think we ought to remember their defense when we are judging future evidence.
 
Anyways, I'm going to go play some games. Will be debating if I want to do something tomorrow, so in the interest of not ending the Day before I decide on that...

[x] Null
 
By the way @-Rosen sorry if I screw up and misgender you. I've almost done it a few times. The female avatar and the fact I have a female friend who goes by Rose means I have to keep actively reminding myself you're not a "she". So if I screw that up, I'm sorry and I'd fix it if editing were allowed.
 
By the way @-Rosen sorry if I screw up and misgender you. I've almost done it a few times. The female avatar and the fact I have a female friend who goes by Rose means I have to keep actively reminding myself you're not a "she". So if I screw that up, I'm sorry and I'd fix it if editing were allowed.
Yeah sorry I'm just a weeb ^^
 
I need to get to bed so as not to totally bork my sleep schedule. Have a good night everybody.
 
@Nictis , and I suppose @-Rosen , you've listed reasonable reasons not to scumread Cyricubed, which are reasonable.
I'm not going to engage those just at this moment. (I'm not ignoring or dismissing them, they have been read and considered.)

Do you have reasons to actively townread them? Would you consider them strong reasons?
 
Addendum- scumread should be considered 'read as Independant Variable/SK'
and townread should be considered 'read as Test Subject/Control Group' with, preferably, which you read as where it is relevant.
 
Backup Independent Variable

Fucking. Called. It. Now then, something to note right away: Backup implies that IP's have a power role. You can confirm a power role but don't be too quick to confirm something as town based on power role. Scum cops exist, points on this later but minor really.

is very likely scum (they've consistently claimed test subject after other test subject have revealed details and, just as frequently, offered incorrect details (note the shade of blue. None of these, as Cyri pointed out, could really prove town, but not knowing the full details of actual townie wincon that everyone who was town identified immediately, following every town detail (faction name and color) as soon as it's pointed out and then getting the details wrong or extremely vague every time, definitely add up to likely scum, or at least a 3P faking it in my book.)(

Except I did...I have a problem on principle with people using WINCONS as a justifiable way of confirming town and shit in any way. Which is why all games I design from now on will state general Town wincons from the start like how TB did their last closed set-up because this is apparently a problem again. As for the color do you really want to try picking out the exact blue while having to scroll up and down on a phone post?

More significantly, as I confirmed last night, you can night kill. No townies used one last night, but 2 others did, which honestly, if we assume townies and 2 hostile parties, doesn't leave much room for others.

Interesting.

Backup is a role type that inherits the relevant power of someone that died. Universal Backups inherit the power of the first person to die, Role Backups inherit the power for that specific role, and Scum backups tend to inherit the role of whichever member died first to keep the scum power up.

Considering that he is a Backup, it probably means that Independent Variables are a group. Coloring indicates that they are scum

Yep, but it makes me exceptionally wary of you Nictis considering you've claimed something no one else has(reasonably however).

@Shadell can be confirmed on their claim. I'm a killing Bodyguard. In other words, I can kill an attacker at night in exchange for my own life. I actually protected Shadell last night, since I assumed if their claim was legit, scum would want to try to take that out of play as soon as possible. Now that he's confirmed that I can kill, I can say pretty confident that I was incorrect on my opinion of him at EoD

This confirms two things: That Shadell is a Gunsmith and that -Rosen can kill (Unless this is 4D lynch your scummate manuever)

I have to admit, the "Control Group" idea is kind of bothering me. Because that name sort of implies a group. And so far no one else has come forward as a member.

Yes, however given what we've said about TS's they wouldn't want to be open.

Nothing; We're both still here, so I'm assuming he wasn't targeted and my action went through normally.

Clarification and QFC in terms of order of events.

@Cyricubed I'd be interested in hearing your reads. Particularly on -Rosen and Nictis.

-Rosen could be tel- ...hrm... See below.

Nictis has me concerned. They've been defending me and makes me consider if they're not actually a survivor and has been working on pocketing me. I leaves me cautious but at the same time for now I have little to add on the matter.

Whooop whoop! Scum alert!
I'm Watcher!

-Rosen did no such thing as visit Shadell!

Really? Now I'm curious.

If -Rosen and Cyricubed turn out to be on a scum team, I am going to feel like a real dumbass.

I'm not scum with rosen. I can personally 100% guarantee this. So...trust me or don't?

"Shot in the chest" implies that the killer had a firearm of some kind. @Nictis, does your role allow you to investigate other participants? It may help us track down who the scum are.

Don't do that. That's asking for a unprovoked roleclaim and rather scummy in a normal sense.

(the actual shade of blue) Cyri got them wrong despite specifically invoking them.

Already discussed this above.

Yeah sorry I'm just a weeb ^^

Yes...yes I am.

Okay current thoughts about these 3 reveals-

Shadell--
(Caution: Wine) - Claimed a power role and is still alive the next day and with results. Makes me curious why scum didn't target Shadell. I would say scum redirector would have directed them away as well. More on this on rosen's section.
@Shadell The biggest question I have for you atm...why did you choose to target rosen over me if you thought I was scum? You caught a killing role so I can't argue your choice here.

Their power is certainly confirmed here. Townness or not? Not yet, leaning town currently.

-Rosen--
Shadell's claim hits correctly on a killing role, a BG that also kills the attacker by claim. They claim to have visited Shadell.
@-Rosen why did you choose to guard Shadell?

-IH--
Was already town reading IH and then a watcher claim. Interestingly enough this contradicts -Rosen's claim.
Now we have an actual conflict and question regarding claims.

Who, if either, of them are lying? I'm more inclined to disbelieve -Rosen here. However there are factor's and scenario's I'd like to throw in as potential could of happened and the probabilites-

1. -Rosen is scum: Means they fake-claimed reasonably hoping there wasn't a watcher alongside a gunsmith and tracker. Pretty safe bet but turned out to bite back. IH and Shadell are almost certainly not aligned with rosen.

2. IH is scum, we only would get that -Rosen isn't aligned with IH. Beyond that not much else.

3. Town Redirector: Note I don't mention transporter here. That's because with transporter IH would still have seen -Rosen. Now with Town Redirector that means one of two things happened: Either IH or -Rosen got sent to someone else. IF there is a town redirector I would like them to step forward and claim IF and ONLY if you redirected IH or -Rosen...or if you redirected someone into a dead person.

Failing that @InterstellarHobo This goes against my standard mode of operation however if we don't hear anything regarding a town transporter I think it might be in interest to drop the name of who you saw visit Shadell and they in turn can confirm as truth or false. I want to be certain you've got -Rosen in a lie mechanically rather than wiggle away on suspected mights.
 
More on this on rosen's section.

Forgot my more on this: Rosen's claim shows that Scum redirect or as long as Shadell is town is unlikely as it could be viewed as proof that shadell's action being confirmed with Rosen's claim shows that they likely weren't redirected.
 
Forgot my more on this: Rosen's claim shows that Scum redirect or as long as Shadell is town is unlikely as it could be viewed as proof that shadell's action being confirmed with Rosen's claim shows that they likely weren't redirected.
I'm sorry, it's kind of late and my brain ain't great, can you try to rephrase that?
I'm having trouble figuring out how to parse this sentence.
 
Okay, so dives on @Cyricubed and @-Rosen. Please feel free to clarify anything I've missed or misexplained here.

The first big hint that Cyricubed isn't a test subject is post 425. @mesonoxian @InterstellarHobo, Ondine and myself all spotted a specific cue. Cyri doubles down on this in 430 insisting that Ondine (who we know is town) and IH (whose managed to be as towny as anyone) look suspicious for this, which, we know was something that was pretty clear to every other declared test subject (IH, Ondine, myself, Mesonoxian and, before backstepping hard on this, -Rosen). In 582 Cyri claimed to use the town color, but got it wrong beyond that it was some variety of blue, which was already public. There are, obviously, many many reasons why someone might do so. 582 also sees Cyri adopting an appeal to emotion to avoid a lynch, though this is mostly NAI. Colorblindness is obviously the easiest, and the one that completely voids this issue. But, the color isn't the biggest part of the thing, so much as the timing.

Ultimately, Cyricubed has A: Only ever claimed town via dropping already public information. B: Slipped up on the details of that information a lot. Each slip is eminently forgivable, but, applied in aggregate, I find them suspect, particularly paired with the lack of convincing town argument. Cyri's consistently dismissed the value of town tells, arguing it isn't helpful information or that scum might have it to, but, Cyri's behavior mostly suggests that Cyricubed isn't working with this information at hand.

Note that, while @-Rosen later shifted against IH's plan with rolecard info, -Rosen was initially incredibly positive on using the town tell. in 263 suggesting that the strategy was golden. Rosen declined to vote at that time, but did justify this on not wanting an early hammer, which is quite sound logic. 293 sees Rosen double down, saying that they know definitively what Ondine and IH are saying and could confirm themselves. In 441 -Rosen abruptly swaps, going from the view that this is pure genius to being 'done with it'. Note, that this that this is almost immediately after Cyricubed came out against the plan and publicly claimed not to know the tell, and people first pointed out Cyri looked suspicious.

In 459 -Rosen makes statements about the town win-con that make it sound ambiguous, despite already having claimed what IH was insisting on for town and factions. Despite having confirmed IH's play very early, in 460 Rosen speculates on a town only set-up. IH's play that Rosen said was genius is predicated on the notion that town could not think it was a town-only setup. It's plausible that Rosen misunderstood the play, but he marks IH as super towny as recently as 449 and never seem to flicker on this view.

502 sees -Rosen reacting to Ondine dropping actually the core information everyone's been complaining about, information that -Rosen had previously announced they knew, by declaring it an appeal to emotions. That is, the single biggest info-drop we'd had until that point sailed right over -Rosen's head, even though -Rosen had engaged with the sequence both when it happened and later when Rosen apparently had no clue it had happened. 619 sees Rosen claiming that they never understood the secret information thing at all, despite having long claimed to understand it.

612 sees Rosen claiming test subject (now test subject bodyguard), but they definitely haven't looked like one at this point, and that's mostly sailed under the radar to many, myself included despite the above slips. here Rosen claims that this was inferred via info leak, despite, at this point, having clearly made it clear that he completely missed what the leaked info was.

-Rosen also has night kills and has confirmed a night-kill power. IH says Rosen is lying on bodyguarding me, and IH honestly just deserves the win if this has all been an elaborate scum play.

632 sees Rosen react to the move to lynch Cyricubed based on the above conjectures, as intrinsically suspicious and suggests me instead, shifting the debate to Cyri vs Ondine to me vs Ondine based on the fact that "I had no progress on Cyri" despite having read Cyri as scum for ages and just posted 570 outlining the read. Rosen here claimed to trust IH's reads, and at this point, IH was clearly scumreading Cyri and townreading me. Rosen first claimed that Ondine was following my 'abrupt' push on Cyricubed in 640 (though I'd made a fair number of posts suspicious of Cyri and recently declared a willingness to lynch Cyri followed by a short post attempting to confirm with IH that they agreed in thread.)

-Rosen has claimed town, claimed to understand plays he later claimed never to have understand, admitted to a night-kill power, and pushed the vote hard off Cyri very abruptly.

Cyricubed has claimed town, but continuously missed the opportunity to evidence that claim and has missed a number of cues that town isn't super likely to miss. In isolation each is entirely ignorable. In aggregate, they are not. Like, Cyricubed's counterargument is that this information only weakly supports being town. This is true! However, Cyricubed has consistently failed to weakly support being town, which is suspect.

To clarify, I don't like the play with the rolecard info. I was vocally against it from the start for a variety of reasons we don't need to rehash. But, it is the hand we've been dealt at this point, and it's offered us a ton of posts to trawl through. Discarding it entirely would be throwing out a lot of the game so far while still having a lot of the negative consequences of the play in place, and I do think it's generated a good deal of value, as much as its made me a bit averse to unknown set-ups. I don't like how we got here, but here we are and we can't ignore what's on the table without breaking the rule to always be trying to win.


@Shadell The biggest question I have for you atm...why did you choose to target rosen over me if you thought I was scum? You caught a killing role so I can't argue your choice here.

I'm honestly incredibly convinced that you're scum to the point that it seemed a waste. Additionally, I read Rosen as shifting blame off you. Confirming Rosen would confirm Rosen and offer weak evidence against you. Confirming you can night-kill would vindicate that belief, but wouldn't say anything about Rosen. In the worst case, I could still confirm Rosen for not being a killer, while I'd be really hard-pressed to identify you as town even if you can't kill.

Though, like, 10000% agreed on town wincon being public (and hopefully faction name too) for games. I'm not really great on the direction the game's taken even if I feel like town needs to play it out at this point.
 
@Shadell can be confirmed on their claim. I'm a killing Bodyguard. In other words, I can kill an attacker at night in exchange for my own life. I actually protected Shadell last night, since I assumed if their claim was legit, scum would want to try to take that out of play as soon as possible. Now that he's confirmed that I can kill, I can say pretty confident that I was incorrect on my opinion of him at EoD.
@Cyricubed here's that for you. As for flavor, I basically just snap their neck, to say it without directly quoting it. I'm assuming my death flavor would be similar or the same as what we see of Fish, but I am uninformed in that regard.
 
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