Oi, no mass tagging in my quest please and thank you.
[X] Plan: Doing our job and Vodka
Would prefer a PM than a tag, but mkay.
I mean it in an absolutely NOT sarcastic way: why?
I mean, i've seen how there's a generic dislike/hate for mass tagging, but I've never really understood it. Not when there is actually a reason for the tags at least.
I mean, It's one thing when you're tagging repeatedly for the same reason, or if the reason is not valid (like, say, you're tagging to convince to change the vote, but the plan you're trying to push existed BEFORE those people voted, so they likely already knew about it anyway), but a single mass tag seems easier than, for example, a pm for every single person.
I think that in this specific case my use of mass tagging was mostly justifiable. Am I wrong?
My feeling is that we are not going to have any money to invest in Vodka or standards for at least 6 months (since we have to pay 18 for the mill and the governor, and then whatever else the rest of the mill costs) So why not roll for both and maybe we'll get some exploding dice.
well, exploding dices have the same odds no matter which option we use them in, so they're not really relevant to the "what should I choose" decision. Well, unless one could potentially be completed with exploding dices while the other could not, but in that case we're back to a "this one is nearly completed, so we might as well complete it) scenario.
Also we don't really know what the costs of the follow-up options to either research would be, but at least if we focus on one we can actually SEE what those costs are, and if we can't or don't want to pay them at the moment THEN we can shift to the other research track.
If we try to develop both researches at the same time we're simply removing that possible choice in the future.
Also we have no idea how long it will take to complete the research. 6 months is 2 turns, but there's a decent chance that, EVEN focusing 2 actions
per turn on vodka, it might not be ready in 6 months.
Let me do a quick check:
vodka is 2d60+ learning (16). objective is probably between 300 and 500. we already have 56. average should be more or less 77 per action i think.
2 actions per turn, that's 154.
56+154(this turn)+154(next turn)=364. So we have a good chance of completing it by the end of next turn. Add another turn (364+154=518) and that's very likely unless we get much lower than average rolls. Of course this is without considering exploding dices, which are 5% per dice (not sure what the chance would be on 6-8 rolls, and I really don't want to go and search what the formula for the binomial distribution is. Too much of a hassle).
Conclusion: with two rolls per turn on vodka we're likely to complete it either by the end of next turn, or by the end of the turn after that one. At that point we might or might not have the money to spend on experimentation, but that's hard to say without knowing what the costs are.
